YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Some encouraging poll news for the government from Queensland, as the Western Australian Liberals opt to sit out the Perth and Fremantle by-elections.

The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:

Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.

It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.

Also noted:

• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.

• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).

• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

527 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. puffytmd @ #497 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:03 pm

    Bemused
    ‘Go figure’.

    Well that proves you have nothing to add to the discussion on domestic violence. I recognise this response and what it means. You just proved your complete ignorance, and that you should never make a statement on family violence ever again, you jerk.

    I am not the one making shit up. It is not a subject I have any expertise on other than limited personal observations and what I see in the media.

    And that poor woman, who was the recipient of your ‘help’, suffered more because not only are/were you an idiot, you are a wilful idiot, too lazy to read about and learn.

    You are an offensive idiot! Should I have done things against that woman’s will? In offering whatever assistance she wanted, I feel I did all that was reasonable and respected her choice.

    It was over 30 years ago and things were a bit different then.

    You are a … never mind. Flogging a stuffed horse.

    Misandry… what misandry? I do not hate men, I feel really sorry for the poor sods. If they were not so dangerous when crossed, they would be so cute.

    So you are patronising too.

  2. Don and Bemused,
    In a week where:
    -two women and their grand/children were killed,
    -a senior gov’t women is kicked out because she is too old and replaced by a unqualified male still in his child-seat,
    -the AMP board dumps its women and keeps it male members,
    -the Budget Impact on Women will be delivered by the Opposition because the Liberal Gov’t dumped it,
    -when we reach 23 women killed by violence so far in 2018 after 51 killed in 2017.

    no male had better complain to me about misandry, snark or anything else that makes them uncomfortable.

    I am not likely to be amused or give a fuck.

    With All Due Respect.

  3. puffytmd @ #505 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    Don and Bemused,
    In a week where:
    -two women and their grand/children were killed,
    -a senior gov’t women is kicked out because she is too old and replaced by a unqualified male still in his child-seat,
    -the AMP board dumps its women and keeps it male members,
    -the Budget Impact on Women will be delivered by the Opposition because the Liberal Gov’t dumped it,
    -when we reach 23 women killed by violence so far in 2018 after 51 killed in 2017.

    no male had better complain to me about misandry, snark or anything else that makes them uncomfortable.

    I am not likely to be amused or give a fuck.

    With All Due Respect.

    Well said Puff! *applause*

  4. Bugger – i think it is just old news of Barnaby Joyce vintage.
    What a let down.
    Still, yes, one can hope that the polls will revisit these heights again.

  5. 1. No one is saying that men are not victims of DV. I notice this is a strawperson often raised when we have this discussion.

    2. The objective evidence – accepted by experts across the planet – is that men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of D.V.. Generally, btw, we’re not talking of the brain snap which results in an infant death, usually connected (in either parent) with the recognised emotional turmoil in the first few months after birth, but a prolonged, consistent, pattern of behaviour.

    I’m not sure why there are men who shy away from confronting the evidence and what it implies, but the problem cannot be tackled properly whilst these denialist attitudes are maintained.

    Certainly the implication is that these men think the experts are lying about D.V. – that there is some kind of conspiracy which governments and other agencies across the political spectrum are party to, and some kind of advantage in pretending something is happening which isn’t.

    I find the alternative very hard to believe – that women are lying so well, faking injuries and (presumably) deaths, just to trick the world’s governments and institutions into giving them more attention (or something; I’m not quite sure what the motivation would be).

    There is a problem with our culture (it’s shared) which has something to do with the way men are raised and socialised. For example, men are more likely, by far, to kill multiple people (with cars, or bombs, or guns); to be suicide bombers, etc. There are more men, by far, in prison for violent crimes.

    So any solution to problems around violence has to look at men. And men have to be prepared to look at what’s going on, too, without seeing any criticism of their gender as being personal.

  6. puffytmd @ #504 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:23 pm

    Don and Bemused,
    In a week where:
    -two women and their grand/children were killed,
    -a senior gov’t women is kicked out because she is too old and replaced by a unqualified male still in his child-seat,
    -the AMP board dumps its women and keeps it male members,
    -the Budget Impact on Women will be delivered by the Opposition because the Liberal Gov’t dumped it,
    -when we reach 23 women killed by violence so far in 2018 after 51 killed in 2017.

    no male had better complain to me about misandry, snark or anything else that makes them uncomfortable.

    I am not likely to be amused or give a fuck.

    With All Due Respect.

    Let me re-write that for you…
    – This week, 4 children, only one of whom was female were tragically killed along with their mother and grandparents.
    – The LNP went for a younger candidate in a pre-selection, apparently ignoring gender issues.
    – The Chairman and several other female directors, about to face re-election, chose to resign from the AMP Board another male Board member is leaving later this year. 2 senior executives, who happened to be male, were sacked.
    – The govt apparently sees no need for gender specific budget statements, the opposition does.
    – Of the 170 Australians murdered in2017, 108 were men.

    See, anyone can cherry pick facts and statistics.

  7. I think we can all agree that violence is unacceptable.

    Discussing one of the most prevelant types of violence in our society, men on women in domestic situations in no way detracts from, deligitimises or minimises other types of violence or their victims.

    For a lot of reasons the overwhelming majority of victims of domestic violence are woman and children, and the overwhelming majority of perpetrators are men.

    That does not mean men can’t be victims or that women or children can’t be perpetrators. For a lot of reasons in our society the relatively rare situation of a man being a victim of DV is not treated as seriously as would be the case for a woman. Both cases of violence ate equally wrong.

  8. bb

    That graph appears to refer to just part of the Arctic area. The link shows that Arctic sea-ice as a whole is at record low for this time of the year but there is no sudden plunge down the chute. It is quite common for one or the other parts of the Arctic sea ice to do dramatic things. It is quite common for sea-ice in one part of the Arctic to be expanding while it is contracting elsewhere.

    Nevertheless, the situation is, IMO, dire:

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  9. The problem at the base of this, is that we are just as likely to be pondering over another dead woman and her kids next week and most certainly more before the year is out. Most probably they will be killed by a man in their close network. There may be one or more where the woman kills her kids and herself, true but stats say it will be the lesser chance of that.

    How long are we going to have to mourn our sisters before their men stop killing them?

    And why cannot you men just shut up while we women express our rage and grief and despair but sadly not any shock that another of two of us lie dead and cold, along with their dead and cold children?

    Do you have any idea what is like to live your whole life as prey? To be taught from the time you can walk and talk that as a female your safety is your problem, you will be preyed upon, and that strangers are dangerous, but no-one tells you the greatest danger is the man who lives in your own house? Or do you learn it watching your mother placate your violent father/stepfather/grandfather and hide her bruises?
    Because that is the life of a lot of women in Australia, so much so that to have a different experience is a sign of luck for a girl, not a right?

    Now is that better than irony, or obsidian humour or snark?

  10. puffytmd @ #524 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:45 pm


    And why cannot you men just shut up while we women express our rage and grief and despair but sadly not any shock that another of two of us lie dead and cold, along with their dead and cold children?

    There it is in a nutshell, damned if we do, damned if we don’t.

    I don’t shut up because violence between any persons, irrespective of genders and outcome, concerns and appals me. If I did shut up I would be attacked for not condemning violence.

  11. Clem

    In those proceedings you never allow yourself any level of confidence – obviously

    But, upon the release to the parties of the Family Report and my QC saying it could not be better for me if I had written it myself (some 17 pages!) I applied to vary my access to the children

    In that interim application the other party’s representative attempted to raise the allegation of a hit on the mother by me

    The presiding Judge responded to my QC that the involvement of the Police in this matter was unfortunate and concerning

    My application was granted

    I did allow myself a nano second of confidence – then headed off to the school gate to collect the children who asked how come I was there to collect them

    The initial period, when coming home to a rented empty house instead of children running to the door to greet you and the interaction with them is something I can not put into words – including that these changed circumstances commence immediately

    I can fully understand that, confronted with such circumstances, reactions and responses will vary

    I was fortunate in that I knew and had immediate access to legal representatives – and I had the support of my social network

    So I acted on the best advice at all times

    And I had the financial support to retain representation -including from those who represented me who included pro bono representation in that support

    Apart from that, who knows

    How others who do not have those supports cope I do not know

  12. I didn’t see my children for five months. My ex wife rang the police to make a complaint against me too. All to get sole occupancy of the home, custody of the children and to avoid having to pay rent. I went to the County Court and succeeded in having the AVO over turned. The judge admitted that it seemed that the AVO was simply a device used in the Family Court. My ex wife’s solicitor made her living my providing women with inflated ideas of what she could win for them in the Family Court. She played to their greed and my wife fell for it. That bitch (her solicitor) literally stole the bread out of my children’s mouths. People who have not had to attend the Family Court (I appeared 13 times) have no idea just how bad it is. I do not even consider it as a court because rules of evidence do not exist at all, for example hearsay is accepted. even my ex wife’s financial statement was inaccurate. But none of it mattered in the end. I have sole custody of both my children, as my ex wife squandered all of the money she got in the settlement and she had no way of housing them. She pissed the lot up the wall within 18 months of getting it. My eldest daughter (18) used to be close to her mother, but now despite my efforts to the contrary, she refuse to speak to her.

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