YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

• The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

• The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

Comments Page 4 of 18
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  1. “Good to see someone else is a fan of these books. “

    I’m a fan too, at least of the First Chronicles, which I read in the late 70s / early 80s.

  2. phoenixRed:

    Thanks for Rick Wilson’s latest. As the NY Times editorial said, Cohen’s business dealings screamed ‘STAY AWAY’ to any serious business person. But not Trump. MICE indeed.

  3. @guytaur

    I am just pointing out what Anne Aly’s detractors are like, they can be considered somewhat out there. Therefore I have given people evidence of what they think.

    @Barney in Go Dau

    I was not questioning her integrity, those articles from Jihad Watch I wanted to post to give you an idea of what her detractors think of her. I expect some of this to come out in a Cowan by-election.

    Her being a counter-terrorism (I should have not put in the commas, my mistake) expert makes her even more of a target for these people, than her just being a Muslim.

  4. Yes – Mirror books were great – inspired idea for one of my novels.

    Ante Meridian – yes, the vocab thing was especially irritating in the last book … he used the word percipience heaps of times … and I remember thinking the average reader would be reaching for the dictionary at that time. He also made up a couple of words (a la Shakespeare … when I had to google to find that Donaldson had invented it himself).

    The real problem with such things is that it throws the reader out of the book and breaks the illusion. A big no-no for a writer (kinda like when the ads come on during a movie and you suddenly see your loungeroom again when before, while you’re absorbed, your surroundings disappear).

  5. Barney

    Thats not how I read it. I read it as this was where the attack is going to come from.

    That may be my bias as my assumption is the LNP are extreme and untethered from the truth as they are being taken over by extremist fundies.

    If Labor had muslims taking over a branch like the LNP have had with the “Christian” right we would have never heard the end of it.

  6. I’m fairly certain that WB has responded to the what if the re-distribution is not complete by the time an election is called question by posting about some sort of contingency which in his opinion made the threat to Lib held seats even more severe.

    Perhaps he can enlighten us again

  9. Confessions says: Friday, May 11, 2018 at 10:40 am

    phoenixRed:

    Thanks for Rick Wilson’s latest. As the NY Times editorial said, Cohen’s business dealings screamed ‘STAY AWAY’ to any serious business person. But not Trump. MICE indeed.

    *****************************************************

    From the Wilson column :

    To hook Trump, however, would take a special kind of man.

    Michael Cohen is obviously such a man. He is a self-consciously cinematic consigliere, a swaggering tough-guy fixer, a vain wannabe Ray Donovan. He was the private emissary to the demimonde of Trump’s priapic adventures, the cleanup man for a constellation of adult film stars, pageant girls, actresses, models, and random D-grade celebrity livestock who needed silencing. As lurid as the stories of Cohen’s role as the NDA-and-Payoffs Czar of Trump World have been, it’s quite obvious that the Russians could also smell corruption on Cohen like a hog sniffs out truffles. He was the perfect access point into Trump and his Administration.

  11. Guytaur – from a writer’s point of view, Donaldson is a much better writer than Rowling.

    What Rowling did was tap into a demographic (initially) that was swept away in popularity.

    ‘50 shades’ did the same and the writing there is appallingly bad from a technical standpoint. Smae with the Vampire series from a few years back.

    Popular does not mean good or bad – many pooh-pooh romance or cime fiction yet many of the authors are far more accomplished.

  14. Jen,

    Exactly. You explain the situation with consummate skill, if I may say so.

    And while we seem to be having a meeting of the PB Book Club, I’d just like to put in my vote for MZB’s The Mists Of Avalon for the best fantasy novel of all time. I’ve never been so absorbed as when I read that one, and felt so disappointed when it ended.

  16. Jen

    Thats why I said Donaldson was no JK Rowling.

    Both have their place. I like both Harry Potter and Thomas Covenant.

    I also like Brian Herbert Robert Heinlen Isaac Asimov Anne McCaffrey to name a few

  17. phoenixRed:

    And he’s likely to be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life if the fate of Russian enemies in the UK are any indication.

    Wilson recommends he enter witness protection, but I doubt that would keep him safe.

  19. @guytaur

    That is basically what I was arguing, since have read a fair bit of the stuff these people have written. They believe Anne Aly could be a deep undercover Muslim brotherhood operative, they are totally convinced what Waleed Aly is.

    There could be a possibility that a Liberal gets pre-selected to run in Cowan and says similar although quite toned down stuff from what the Australian Liberty Alliance and Conservatives would be saying.

    I believe this could happen as well in the coming election as well. That could be a potential embarrassment for Malcolm Turnbull, unable to put an candidate into line who would be spewing bigoted remarks against Muslim people.

    Plus this all going to backfire and maybe make Cowan into a fairly safe Labor seat.

  21. Fess,

    I didn’t believe Leigh Sales asked that ‘what about people earning $200,000pa’ question, but she did. And demonstrated that she doesn’t understand progressive taxation.

    LEIGH SALES: To come back again to this point about fairness. An Australian on $200,000 a year pays $60,000 a year in tax. Somebody earning $50,000 pays $8,000 a year in tax. So the higher income earner pays about, sorry, gets about four times as much income but they pay more than seven times as much tax. How is that fair?

    Labor need to smash this one with reference to disposable incomes.

    The first question is, what is the disposable income of Person 1 on $50,000, compared to Person 2 on $200,000? To crudely pick a number, say costs of essentials are $40k for each ($770/wk – this is for one person, probably an underestimate). So the disposable income of Person 1 is $10k, and $160k for Person 2.

    Next, what the tax rate for each with respect to disposable income? The tax-to-disposable-income ratio is 8k/10k=4/5 for Person 1, vs 60k/160k=2/9 for Person 2 . That’s close enough to one quarter of the rate for Person 2.

    The income tax burden should be born by those who can most afford it. By looking at disposable income, I can’t see how it can be argued that Person 2 can’t afford it.

  23. Zoomster

    “Which points to a problem I have had all along with the kind of ‘no mercy’ ruling the HC has come down with – at what point does crawlingly slow bureaucracy become a clear intention not to relinquish citizenship — and therefore ‘reasonable steps’ kick in?”

    Read the Edelman J separate judgement in Gallagher at 60-67. He discusses something not dealt with in the main joint judgement, namely “unreasonableness” on the part of the foreign nation. What you describe will probably be dealt with in the future when an actual case arises.

    Read my post on last thread late last night.

  25. Fess – I wasn’t wrong when I said I would not win. I had no illusions about it.

    The awards were for historical romance and I was surprised my book was nominated because it is not a romance but a historical saga with a backbone of a love story spanning 2 generations.

  27. LU:

    Shorten’s reply kind of touched on capacity, but you’re spot on about disposable income – the higher your wages, the more capacity you have to meet cost of living, but also cope during those periods when financial burdens hit all at once.

    BILL SHORTEN: I’m not saying, yes, but they have a higher capacity to pay whereas someone on $60,000, Leigh, they are not making a lot of money, they are not saving a lot of money.

    Now this is not a competition about who has got a harder luck story, but in government you have got to make choices.

    Mr Turnbull wants to reduce taxes for the top end, I want to do a better deal for 10 million Australians. It’s as simple as that.

  28. I liked Donaldson back in the 80s, but not since. Overwrites awfully IMO. Having said that, I own and have read all of the Covenant books, even if I didn’t enjoy them as much after the first series.

    For fantasy I can’t go past the works of the recently deceased Julian May. Saga of the Exiles is in production for Netflix, I’m led to believe, and she was working on the script until the end. Hope they don’t stuff it up.

    Harder sci-fi – no contest, Greg Bear. IMO anyway.

  30. That video of Morrison – shouting “rolled gold promises” made by Shorten. I’m not sure that Bill ever used that expression (and the pedants among us know that rolled gold is not the genuine article 😉 ) but Morrison comes over as the preacher that he really is, shouting at the congregation.

  31. ‘fess,

    Right-o, that’s a good angle.

    But I think it deserves a more front-on assault. Maybe this is best pursued by Bowen or Leigh, rather than Shorten, because Bill needs to stick to the “keep it simple” tactic.

  32. autocrat

    Good news. I liked Julian May.

    I guess by calling it Saga of the Exiles it means nothing about Intervention or Jak the Bodiless

  34. Andrew_Earlwood @ #126 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 10:18 am

    @Ven – 9:11am:

    “How can ALP win the next election if theu can’t win Robertson, Chisolm and herbert?”

    ALP can afford to lose two out of those three and still win the election.

    Because of the redistribution in Victoria all Labor has to do is hold on to be ahead. I think it is likely to actually pick up a couple of seats, Chilsolm amongst them.

    I have Gilmore and Banks penciled in before Robertson in NSW.

    I think a gain of 3 in WA is most probable – even if the state Labor 2PP comes back (as I expect it will a bit).

    Queensland – could go either way. It is possible that Labor could lose both Longman and Herbert. Equally it could pick up Forde, Flynn and Capricornia.

    At this stage I cant see anything less than an 8 seat net gain by Labor. Add in the likely support for supply from Brandt and Wilkie and that amounts to a pretty comfortable working majority.

    However, given the absolutely daft LNP budget ‘strategy’ and the way Shorten and Labor has nailed them I think we are still on track for a minimum Labor return of 81 seats+ at the next election.

    Andrew

    I note what you are saying but I strongly advise against such hubris. Sure Shorten did well yesterday and it should help but there is a lot of time to go.

    Right NOW based on those polling figures in marginals this is my prediction -not too far from yours

    WA 2 seats -Pearce and Swan. I think that Hasluck will buck the trend and the others are just out of reach

    Victoria – close but I expect them to get two extras from – Chisolm, Latrobe BUT Melbourne Ports is a probable loss

    SA – net loss of one due to abolishing Pt Adelaide and the Libs gain Mayo

    NSW – gain of two out of Banks, Gilmore Page or Robertson

    So before we get to Qld I see Labor up net seats of 4 (gives them 73 out of a parliament of 151. They need 76 to form government if there is an independent speaker and 77 otherwise. Assume Bandt supports (or takes the Speaker role) they MUST get three more.

    Now Qld is tricky and unpredictable.

    I think Flynn and Forde and Petrie are winnable and likely and Bonner and Capricornia a good chance. However Herbert and Longman are likely losses. I think sadly Dutton will hang on as will Christiansen. Brisbane logically should fall but I am advised that Trevor Evans has the gay community eating out of his hand, and in this electorate that matters – A LOT.

    So it is bloody close.

    On the brighter side I think that Ryan, Wide Bay and Bowman are volatile and could give the national shocks. Ryan will NOT go the the ALP but it just might go Green.

  37. adrian @ #134 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Steve K @ #125 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    [As for Lame’s aspirational voter question, I noticed that Tony Burke had a good tactic the other day when asked a stupid question by Sales.

    He forrowed his brow!

    He normally has a charming, friendly and open expression so this was quiet a change.

    It gave a distinct impression that he thought the question was ‘curious’ and made Sales look a dill. (Yes not hard to do I know).]

    The change of facial expression doesn’t work so well on radio.

    🙂

    Lane’s question was the equivalent of being bowled a full toss in cricket.
    It should have been hit over the boundary.

  38. Dan Gulberry says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 10:36 am
    Ante Meridian @ #130 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    If there’s a straightforward way of saying something using simple language, and an obscure way of saying the same thing that forces most of the readers to consult a dictionary, Stephen Donaldson would choose the latter without fail. His works would be a lot easier to read if he weren’t so obsessed with showing off his vocabulary.

    Forcing readers to consult a dictionary increases the vocabulary of the reader. So, educational as well as entertaining.
    ———————————————————
    Reading the dictionary would probably be just as entertaining. Thomas Covenant, one of most annoying main characters in fantasy literature. He was under the mistaken impression that everybody hated him because he was a leper when it was actually because he was a dropkick.

  40. C@tmomma

    I knew he was ex army but did not know about this. From your NYT link.

    That conflict almost expanded when a small contingent of Russian troops seized the Pristina airport in Kosovo. If a British officer named James Blunt had not refused to act on an order from Gen. Wesley Clark to clear the airport, things might have turned out a lot worse. Blunt went on to fame as a rock musician with the hit song “You’re Beautiful,”

  41. I think predicting individual seats is fraught with danger – especially since polling can be skewed by booth concentrations of one side or another. Preferences also.

    In elections there are always upsets.

    Nobody from the Libs side, for instance, could have predicted a loss of 18 seats last one around.

    Labor might have hoped but I don’t think they’d anticipated the result either.

    Internal polling would be more telling but we won’t get to see that until the last minute.

  42. For hard science fiction, it’s a close call between Larry Niven and John Varley. Their masterworks were Ringworld and The Golden Globe, respectively.

  43. This is a bit more usual Rick Wilson – entertaining and informative

    Rudy Giuliani and Donald Trump: This Will End Badly. And Probably Soon.

    Giuliani knows Trump well enough to know that Trump will turn on him fast. Here’s a preview of how this is going to go in the coming weeks.

    Like a bloated, portly fake billionaire rolling off a hooker after a hot 45 seconds of passionate sex, Donald Trump’s ardor for Rudy Giuliani seems to have cooled.

    If the White House leaks are any barometer, it sounds more and more as if Donald wants Rudy to get his money off the nightstand and the hell out of his room at the No-Tell-Motel. This is what happens when you work for Trump, and Rudy is old enough, crafty enough, and knows Trump well enough to have known better.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/rudy-giuliani-and-donald-trump-this-will-end-badly-and-probably-soon

  44. Dan Gulberry @ #147 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 10:36 am

    Ante Meridian @ #130 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    If there’s a straightforward way of saying something using simple language, and an obscure way of saying the same thing that forces most of the readers to consult a dictionary, Stephen Donaldson would choose the latter without fail. His works would be a lot easier to read if he weren’t so obsessed with showing off his vocabulary.

    Forcing readers to consult a dictionary increases the vocabulary of the reader. So, educational as well as entertaining. 😉

    I have learnt some new words on PB. Problem is to remember them all as opportunities to use them are few. 😀

  45. @daretotread

    If the Greens vote goes backwards than Labor will retain Melbourne Ports. However if it does not and even goes up a little, then the Greens could gain it (they came pretty close to doing that at the last election).

    Melbourne Ports would be somewhat safer for Labor if Michael Danby wasn’t the member. If somebody like Tanya Plibersek was the member for Melbourne Ports if would be somewhat safer for Labor. Especially if in the future Caulfield North is removed from the electorate and the South Yarra/Prahran area is added.

    I used to live in Melbourne Ports (now I am in Hobart), Caulfield to be exact. I do miss living there sometimes, only the Hobart City Council area feels remotely like Prahran, South Yarra and St Kilda.

  46. AM

    For me its hard to go past Isaac Asimov and Philip K DIck.

    Another favourite however was Footfall by Niven in collaboration with Pournelle

    Its interesting that Apple is making its first Science Fiction television content series the Asimov Foundation series.

  47. Tristo @ #150 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 10:38 am

    @Andrew_Earlwood

    I am suspecting that there are safer Liberal seats under risk of being lost to Labor.

    In Victoria, I will add Latrobe to the list of a possible Labor Gain. Because the redistribution has included fast growing and strongly Labor voting Pakenham.

    Overall Corangamite (will called Cox from now on) and Dunkley are going to Labor gains due to the redistribution which makes the former line-ball and the latter marginal Labor.

    In regards to Chisholm, the redistribution has meant that lost it’s southern Southern end (Oakleigh) which is quite strong for Labor and added more of the Whitehorse and Monash council areas North of the Monash freeway which lean Liberal. The notional 3% Liberal margin is going to more like 4% if you add a sophomore swing to Julia Banks.

    In Victoria I see Dunkley, Cox and possibly Latrobe as Labor gains, and Chisholm to be retain by the Liberals narrowly.

    I agree on the Victorian seats you have assessed. Chisholm will be very tough.

  48. Grattan:

    The Government cashed in with an attack on Mr Shorten’s integrity, based on his refusal last year to admit that eligibility questions clearly hung over a number of ALP members.

    The Coalition regards Mr Shorten, who isn’t well liked by voters, as perhaps its strongest lifeline to possible electoral survival.

    It is perennially trying to make his character an issue, starting with the trade union royal commission. So far, the effort has only managed to inflict flesh wounds, although the constant depiction of him as “shifty” may reinforce the public’s reservations.

    Is Turnbull better liked than Shorten? Hard to believe.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/michelle-grattan-shorten-gives-turnbull-a-character-forming-task/9750432

  49. I have learnt some new words on PB. Problem is to remember them all as opportunities to use them are few. “

    I’ve had to look up a word used by a PB’er on occasion.

  50. Tristo @ #162 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 11:18 am

    @daretotread

    If the Greens vote goes backwards than Labor will retain Melbourne Ports. However if it does not and even goes up a little, then the Greens would gain it (they came pretty close to doing that at the last election).

    Tricot

    Fully agree. Who knows what will happen to the Green vote. However in seats like MP there is also demographic change, so its loss is possible, including going to the Liberals.

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