YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

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  1. If the Liberals aren’t running a candidate in Perth, they must be fearing a shocking result federally in the state. Labor might achieve the first time for over thirty years it gets more than 50% of the two party preferred vote in the state.

  2. Tristo

    My thoughts as well. WA must be lining up the baseball bats for the Libs federally. Easier way to avoid having to talk about a negative swing by not contesting.

  3. Ides of March not.logged in @ #845 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:54 pm

    I was under the impression that Jane Prentice was always a target.

    Is it confirmed the libs wont contest Freo or Perth?


    There are always ALP hopefuls who tell us with bated breath that Ryan is winnable this time, although since 2010 the factions have largely left the field, recognising the difficulty. Yes it went Labor n a by election but that only lasted three months. Then it got a little bit close in 2007, but still not close enough. A redistribution was supposed to make it winnable but it went backwards.

    The thing is the seat is demographically changing as it stretches from the inner city to the rural hobby farms. yes it has both.

  4. @Ides of March not.logged in

    Perth is an inner city seat and the Greens polled 17% of the primary vote (17.7% in Fremantle) there at the last election. Labor will win these by-elections, although the Greens would come second.

  5. DTT

    I meant as in Jane Prentice was a target to lose preselection.

    Fess, Tristo

    I would expect the WA Greens to contest given they appear to be their best seats in the west. I wonder about the conservative side and if they can win the Lib rump vote.

  6. Ides of March not.logged in says:
    Saturday, May 12, 2018 at 4:16 pm

    I would expect the WA Greens to contest given they appear to be their best seats in the west. I wonder about the conservative side and if they can win the Lib rump vote.

    I wonder how many active supporters there still are in the Conservatives since the MPs in SA jumped ship, leaving Bernardi as the sole parliamentary member. Also, the Conservatives seem to be very much a SA phenomenon and don’t seem to have much clout outside the State (or currently within SA for that matter). Would Bernardi and whatever local support base he has, be able to mount an effective campaign in WA?

  7. John Reidy @ #803 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 1:32 pm

    thanks for all of the Saturday morning reading, from reading it I have concluded, that what will benefit Labor is campaigning on
    a) increased and better government services, and
    b) returning the deficit to surplus sooner than, or the same time as the government.

    I see the tax cuts as a distant third, it like boats or national security for the coalition, despite what Labor might they to coalition are always seen as stronger in this area.

    Since Thursday evening, Labors tax offset plan has received most of the publicity, but what will matter are the promises for services and the credibility of the tax measures under Labor to bring the budget back to surplus. I assume Labor will campaign hard on this in the weeks and months to come, and it is after that process we can judge how Labor is travelling.

    I also saw the front page of the GG, they are in full on ‘class war’ mode for the benefit of the ‘aspirationals’ who apparently will get no benefit from Labor (shades of some ABC presenters).

    Also the Australian’s favourite ALP contributor John Black wrote today that Beasley failed to learn the lessons from fighting a class war and lost the ‘unloseable’ election in 1998.

    The term ‘aspirational’ has been completely hijacked to now mean ‘highly individualistic greed’.

    The ALP, Unions and Left more generally need to reclaim it.

    ALP voters have aspirations. They aspire to a better society in which they and their fellow citizens will thrive with decent education for their kids and everyone else’s kids, decent healthcare for all, affordable housing, decent public transport, a more equal society etc.

    They are aspirations for all, not just the few of just the self.

  8. C@tmomma @ #809 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    adrian @ #788 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:48 pm

    bemused @ #779 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    lizzie @ #709 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    Kon Karapanagiotidis‏Verified account @Kon__K · 11h11 hours ago

    In a week where 5 women have been killed in Australia this week I want you all to remember @TurnbullMalcolm committed more money to a statute (sic) of Captain Cook than new funding for #DV and Sexual Assault Services & Prevention in #Budget18

    So the lives of men and boys don’t matter.
    Seven people died. 4 were children.

    What a ridiculous conclusion to draw!

    Maybe you should join the Moronic Posters on PB Club. I’m sure that extremely senior President and CEO Borewar will accept your membership application.

    Exactly. Especially as the only person who hasn’t been mentioned as being one of the murder victims is the MALE husband and father of the children.

    WRONG as usual.

  9. steve davis @ #824 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    I cant believe how someone could kill all his family in that way.Why couldn’t he have sought professional help or just took his own life?Heartbreaking stuff.

    I have discussed this with a Mental Health professional who explained that it can arise from a type of depression where the perpetrator decides the world is too terrible to live in or to leave loved ones to live in. So they take their family with them.

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