Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.
• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.
• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.
• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.
I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.
• The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.
• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.
• The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)
• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).
A vindictive, score-settling, ideologue-promoting budget. No more, no less!
thanks for all of the Saturday morning reading, from reading it I have concluded, that what will benefit Labor is campaigning on
a) increased and better government services, and
b) returning the deficit to surplus sooner than, or the same time as the government.
I see the tax cuts as a distant third, it like boats or national security for the coalition, despite what Labor might they to coalition are always seen as stronger in this area.
Since Thursday evening, Labors tax offset plan has received most of the publicity, but what will matter are the promises for services and the credibility of the tax measures under Labor to bring the budget back to surplus. I assume Labor will campaign hard on this in the weeks and months to come, and it is after that process we can judge how Labor is travelling.
I also saw the front page of the GG, they are in full on ‘class war’ mode for the benefit of the ‘aspirationals’ who apparently will get no benefit from Labor (shades of some ABC presenters).
Also the Australian’s favourite ALP contributor John Black wrote today that Beasley failed to learn the lessons from fighting a class war and lost the ‘unloseable’ election in 1998.
Word on twitter is Libs wont contest Perth.
Vic, phoenixRed:
Absolutely brilliant New Rules! Touched on all the things we’ve been saying about Trump and his mob crime family.
Wasn’t there talk about a government MP under preselection threat due to the Victorian right?
How about Brisbane and a government minister:
A Brisbane councillor has been chosen over a current Turnbull government assistant minister to stand in a west Brisbane seat at the next federal election.
Walter Taylor Ward councillor Julian Simmonds has been picked instead of Assistant Minister for Social Services and Disability Services Jane Prentice to run in the seat of Ryan at the next election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-minister-defeated-in-lnp-preselection-20180512-p4zewj.html
Libs hiding from defeat again in Perth.
There’s a Class War going on alright. And Malcolm Turnbull’s class is winning!
adrian @ #788 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:48 pm
Exactly. Especially as the only person who hasn’t been mentioned as being one of the murder victims is the MALE husband and father of the children.
John R:
All very incestuous as well.
Steve
Ryan is going to be a seat to watch!..
It is a real chance for the Greens now I think. Labor has of course tried and many have been hopeful but as yet there is no candidate nor any obvious ALP person willing to step forward with the credentials to win. There were two obvious front runners but neither wants the role having work and other commitments.
Trouble for Labor is that the seat is intrinsically quite middle class with a lot of very rich areas, which makes it hard for Labor to get over the line. However a green won Maiwar state seat which is fully within Ryan.
However Jane Prentice had a strong local following and was the sort of moderate that appealed to the electorate. The Council is tired and association with Newman is not good for the new child.
Someone has analyzed the ticker-tape at the bottom of the #ABCNews24 screen over the past month. 40% positive to the LNP, 30% negative to the ALP, the rest neutral. Nothing favourable about the ALP. #auspol
Perth
lizzie says:
Saturday, May 12, 2018 at 2:43 pm
Perth
Peter van OnselenVerified account @vanOnselenP · 1h1 hour ago
Contesting it would have exposed just how weak the Liberal vote in the west is. I said on The Project that Liberals couldn’t win it…
And when Wayne informed us the Liberals would win it, I expressed the view they would not even contest it. We will see.
Quasar says:
Saturday, May 12, 2018 at 2:41 pm
Someone has analyzed the ticker-tape at the bottom of the #ABCNews24 screen over the past month. 40% positive to the LNP, 30% negative to the ALP, the rest neutral. Nothing favourable about the ALP. #auspol
And the tarnished their reputation for what? Not even a fist full of dollars.
Anantha@AnanthalakshmiA
42m42 minutes ago
this just happened in the last few minutes:
-Najib said he will take an overseas holiday from today and return next week.
-Immigration then says Najib and wife blacklisted from leaving Malaysia
– Najib says he respects their decision and will stay put
Frednk
Wayne/Lee/Ray is just a complete illiterate imbecile who couldn’t guess which way a lift was going if he had two guesses,which makes him an ideal Liberal supporter.
It appear the murderer of the murder suicide is the 61 year old grandfather.
The murder victims are his wife, his daughter and his 4 grandchildren. The eldest is a thirteen year old girl, and the rest boys aged 12, 10 and 8.
So Perp is a gun owning Male.
Victims are adult females and kids.
Peebee
I wonder what the motive was?
Motive unknown, but it would seem from reports that the daughter and her children were living in a converted shed on the property. No idea if the children’s father lived with them, but he has been notified of his family’s death.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-12/margaret-river-osmington-murder-suicide-saturday/9754446
I thought both grandparents were murdered also. At least according to earlier reports. My bad.
I look forward to the following information being splashed across the MSM:
1. The type(s) of weapons used.
2. Whether one or both of the weapons was a modified Adler OR an Adler that imported under the arrangements forced on by the Hunters, Shooters and Farmers abusing their BOP.
3. Whether there were licences for both weapons.
4. Whether the murderer had uttered threats in any way, shape or form.
5. If the weapons were unlicenced, how did they enter the country when we spend over $1 billion a year on border security.
6. Whether the murderer was a member of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.
7. Whether the murderer had convictions which involved violence or threats of violence.
8. Whether the murderer had a history of psychiatric disturbance and/or domestic violence.
9. Whether the murderer visited social media sites associated with guns.
10. Whether the murderer had made posts involving approval of violence and/or threats of violence.
There are now more guns in Australian than before Port Arthur.
Despite spending billions on Morrison’s and Dutton’s border farce there have never been more illegal guns entering the country.
Gun laws are progressively being weakened.
Access to national parks by shooters is regarded as normal.
There are efforts to incorporate shooting/guns into school curriculums.
We are sleeping walking towards another Port Arthur.
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHERE THE PRESSURE TO WEAKEN GUN LAWS IS COMING FROM, here is the Queensland state policy of One Nation on guns:
‘One Nation will stop making criminals out of gun owners
A One Nation state government will:
legislate for a general firearms amnesty for any person who wishes to surrender a firearm, or register an unregistered firearm.
streamline the current system of firearms licensing to make legitimate gun ownership less costly and convoluted.
standardise all firearm licenses to a 10 year renewal with no increase in fees.
review the Weapons Act and Regulations and Weapons Categories Regulations in consultation with all stakeholders and industry experts within the first year of forming government.
Details
Focus of policy is to move away from trying to criminalise firearms ownership to punishing criminals for the use of firearms to commit crimes.
Recognise that as a matter of principle, licensed firearm ownership by law-abiding citizens is a right in a free society. More focus towards causal factors in gun violence including criminal use of firearms, mental health issues and support for policing violent domestic situations.
Create a general unregistered firearms amnesty involving dealers, with both the opportunity to surrender unregistered firearms and the opportunity for licensed shooters to register them without penalty.
Introduce a “Licence Instant Verification System” (LIVS) for firearm dealers to replace the current paper based PTA system to ensure firearms are not sold to those whose licence is cancelled or expired.
Create a single firearms licence system with multiple endorsements for specific uses (e.g. “collector, “dealer”, “handgun”, security guard” etc) to avoid the requirement for multiple licences for occupational shooters.
End the so-called “genuine reason/genuine need” test for each individual firearm on the basis that the licensed individual has already been cleared a fit and proper person to possess a firearm in any given category he/she is licensed for.
Reduce waiting periods before purchasing handguns in line with the 28-day waiting period for other firearm categories, and initial purchase reduced to three instead of six months whilst maintaining the 3 participation matches currently required. No compulsory waiting period for any second or subsequent firearms as this serves no logical purpose other than to inconvenience shooters.
Remove the provisions restricting firearms based on subjective appearance and adhere to the measurable categories of functionality as per the Australian Customs import test.
Ensure that primary producers and feral pest controllers continue to be able to use categories A, B, C, D and H firearms.
Exempt calibre, barrel length and magazine restrictions for state and national competition shooters to allow the re-establishment of international shooting competitions which have been largely destroyed by the current restrictions.
Allow the purchase of ammunition for firearms outside of the existing licence category to cater for borrowing a registered firearm from another licensed owner, for example when assisting pest control on their property (reasonable excuse).
Legalise volunteer feral pest controllers to assist in eradication of severe feral infestations on rural properties and promote this within DPI and the EPA.
Make membership lists for gun clubs legally exempt from requests to access or view by external parties without a warrant, including other members, to prevent criminals or anti-firearm extremists gaining access to this information.
Introduce intelligence-based licensed firearm owner audits to free-up police hours. Police to be encouraged to educate licensed firearm owners on firearm security rather than to attempt to penalise unintentional minor mistakes.
Reduce the requirement for pistol owners to shoot in a minimum number of competitions each year for each category of firearms owned. On the basis that this provides no safety benefit and is simply an onerous bureaucratic requirement akin to requiring that a driver travel a minimum number of kilometres per year in order to keep a driver’s licence.
Recognise recreational hunting and pest control as legitimate reasons to obtain a firearms licence with no landholder letter required.
Authorise sports shooting associations and clubs that wish to teach firearms licence safety courses.
Reduce police firearms storage verification if a shooter can on initial inspection show that they exceed the safe storage requirement (dual locking, dyna bolting, multi-bolt safe doors). Introduce a signed acknowledgement of the requirement for safe storage of firearms in compliance with the relevant legislation for those purchasing their first firearm, including an acknowledgement of the penalty for failing to comply with this.
Allow licence applications, changes and renewals to be undertaken on-line as well as at police stations and firearms dealers.
Mandate performance benchmarks for weapons licensing to dispatch new and renewed licences within 30 days of application being delivered to Weapons Licensing Branch. Recognise in law that receipt of an application for renewal of an expiring firearms license extends licence validity until the receipt of the new firearms licence.
Introduce increased accountability and transparency for firearms regulators under the Weapons Act to ensure that powers are clearly defined in law and limited to specific situations to avoid arbitrary decision making.
Introduce significantly increased penalties for crimes committed with a firearm and theft of a firearm.
I cant believe how someone could kill all his family in that way.Why couldn’t he have sought professional help or just took his own life?Heartbreaking stuff.
OK, some more facts.
The killer owned three (3) licenced ‘long arm’ weapons. This means not pistols but three rifles and/or shotguns.
Who needs three death dealing weapons like that?
steve davis @ #824 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:09 pm
Or told them to get off his property if he couldn’t cope with them! Or he could go elsewhere! Plenty of alternatives to just ending their lives!
Boerwar @ #822 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
Looks like it’s a cut and paste from some gun nut site.
Gun ownership is not a right it’s a privilege that few in a society should be given!
Boerwar:
There were 3 guns recovered, all licensed to Peter Miles.
https://www.communitynews.com.au/pinjarra-murray-times/news/margaret-river-shooting-three-guns-recovered-scene-commissioner-names-victims
So the Liberals not contesting Fremantle or Perth.Shows how much they care about their supporters in those areas.
I read somewhere that the four grandchildren were autistic and home-schooled and that the father was estranged from the family. The mother of the children had complained on FB about his ute being parked across the road but as the estranged father would have been prime suspect, the police must either have eliminated him or are keeping Schtum. The grandfather was described as teacher and farmer- their hobby farm was unlikely to need 3 guns. Very odd and sad.
C@t:
A UK tabloid was reporting the kids had autism but being a Murdoch rag could well be sensationalist fake news.
It made the news in the UK.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/australia-murder-suicide-margaret-river-12522214
Watch Truffles’ demonstrating what his word is worth.
https://twitter.com/KieraGorden/status/995159515828924417
So the Liberals made a big deal of Shortens ineligible MPs,then don’t bother to run in 2 of the 5 five seats.F……g ridiculous.
Confessions @ #831 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:18 pm
No, I would believe it, going on the picture of the mum with the kids, at least one of them looked, to my mind, without being told otherwise, as if he was likely autistic.
poroti @ #833 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 3:21 pm
Peeps do not understand Barrister speak. It wasn’t Turnbull but the FWC which made the changes to Penalty Rates. So he is correct.
poroti @ #832 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:21 pm
The final comment sums it up perfectly! 🙂
Latika wonders whether Downer Snr still has the UK High Commission twitter login and is using the account to retweet his daughter’s advising she will run in Mayo.
C@tmomma @ #835 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:25 pm
Not in this case. Watch it!
People breakdown all the time. Easily available firearms give people the means to do a lot of damage quickly.
After all what are firearms for anyway? That is what they are designed to do.
“And when Wayne informed us the Liberals would win it, I expressed the view they would not even contest it. We will see.”
They’ll win it anyway and hold it to 2022 and beyond.
BiGD,
Turnbull is splitting hairs but is telling a truth.
1. He had no plans to cut Penalty Rates.
2. He supports the cuts to Penalty Rates…which the FWC brought down.
What I don’t get is what Bill Shorten is supposed to be lying about!?!
C@tmomma @ #841 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:32 pm
I’d say he’d be focusing on the fact that Shorten said Labor would accept the umpires decision neglecting to point out that Labor’s submission as the Government would have more weight.
lizzie @ #843 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:45 pm
Affirmative action in the LNP!!!! 🙁
You want to hear a lie:
1. We have a debt and deficit disaster;
2. But, oh hell, we’ll double the deficit in five years.
I was under the impression that Jane Prentice was always a target.
Is it confirmed the libs wont contest Freo or Perth?
Ides:
Ides of March not.logged in @ #846 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 12:54 pm
Just Twitter talk so far from what’s been said here!
But wait!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/12/jane-prentice-loses-lnp-preselection-for-queensland-seat-of-ryan
Nevermind Barney answered the question
Things are getting interesting in Malaysia.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-12/najib-razak-and-wife-barred-from-leaving-malaysia/9754904