YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. BK
    Thank you. Hope the sausages sizzled well.
    Shorter Hartcher: Good policy is good politics.
    Labor is threatening to turn the ‘truism’ that the Coalition are superior economic managers on its bum.

  2. BK

    If you are still around, Sharkie is well liked right? Would people in the Hills take to Ms Downer or would they hate her?

  3. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 7h7 hours ago

    Someone has analyzed the ticker-tape at the bottom of the #ABCNews24 screen over the past month. 40% positive to the LNP, 30% negative to the ALP, the rest neutral. Nothing favourable about the ALP. #auspol

  4. BK thanks for the link to the article about economist Ian Harper and banking regulation. Financial economists are the worst of the profession – all far right and often not that good at actual economics. They see banking as the purpose of the economy, rather than vice versa. Unfortunately in an era when most uni departments are desperate for cash, they often get promoted well beyond their ability, precisely because they attract generous largesse like sponsored chair positions from the finance sector.

  5. Stephen Spencer‏ @sspencer_63 · 13h13 hours ago

    Having twice run for, and been rejected by the Liberal Party in Victoria, Downer returns to demand she be handed the ancestral family seat. Surely Mayo deserves better than being seen as a consolation prize for a failed Victorian Liberal?

  6. Ides
    It would amaze me if Georgina attracted a following other than rusted on blue voters. Downer Snr nearly lost Mayo several times. It is a well educated electorate and they will know Georgina is a Melbourne lawyer who is trying to reclaim the family business after failing to win preselection in Higgins.

  7. I am catching up on last night’s posts. Interesting stuff on mythology of Israel and Egypt. This comparative mythology material is fun, but includes a lot of guesswork on correlations. There is a Time-Life series of 20 books published about 2000 on “Myth & Mankind”. Celtic, Persian, Babylonian etc, Australian/Pacific, Egyptian, Greek/Roman, Inuit and so on – but nothing at all on Jewish myths.
    I commented on this at U3A yesterday – one comment was that the Jews don’t have myths – they have history!!!
    Wikipedia is helpful (Even if not totally reliable)

  8. Kon Karapanagiotidis‏Verified account @Kon__K · 11h11 hours ago

    In a week where 5 women have been killed in Australia this week I want you all to remember @TurnbullMalcolm committed more money to a statute (sic) of Captain Cook than new funding for #DV and Sexual Assault Services & Prevention in #Budget18

  9. Good morning all,

    The Courier Mail has a Galaxy post budget poll for Queensland today.

    The poll was taken on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

    52 -48 to the coalition. Same as last time.

    PV Coalition 40 ( -1 ).
    PV labor 33 (+1)

    Plus the usual budget questions.


  10. If you are still around, Sharkie is well liked right? Would people in the Hills take to Ms Downer or would they hate her?

    Rebekha has worked extremely hard throughout her large and varied electorate and has earned recognition and respect.
    I would hope that her campaign – which won’t have a lot of money at its disposal – would point out the many negatives about Downer and get Bek over the line.
    But I fear the worst. I have got to know her quite well and she deserves better than this.

  11. Doyley

    While Courier Mail posts are not worth reusing in the sewerage system, I do think that the national polls and William’s poll tracker are fare too optimistic

  12. Morning all.

    Thanks phoenixRed and BK for today’s offerings.

    I have friends who live in Sharkie’s electorate and they have been very impressed with her as a local member. Hopefully there are more voters in Mayo who feel the same and she gets another go.

  13. phylactella @ #707 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 8:20 am

    I am catching up on last night’s posts. Interesting stuff on mythology of Israel and Egypt. This comparative mythology material is fun, but includes a lot of guesswork on correlations. There is a Time-Life series of 20 books published about 2000 on “Myth & Mankind”. Celtic, Persian, Babylonian etc, Australian/Pacific, Egyptian, Greek/Roman, Inuit and so on – but nothing at all on Jewish myths.
    I commented on this at U3A yesterday – one comment was that the Jews don’t have myths – they have history!!!
    Wikipedia is helpful (Even if not totally reliable)


    Thanks for that link.

    Not sure I am any the wiser given that Asharah seems to be both a sea goddess and a tree goddess. But it makes one heap of sense.

    From the little I know I believe the Allawi are extremely secretive about their religion, which is a pity because I suspect that much would be uncovered about ancient religion of the Middle east – perhaps including goddess worship.

    One would expect the Mediterranean earth Mother ( Demeter, Isis,) to be present

  14. Stephen Donaldson was discussed yesterday and one of the core elements of the Land was that it’s people were in tune with nature.

    So, maybe one of humanities problems is that we didn’t go up into the the trees!! 🙂

  15. daretotread. @ #714 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 8:36 am


    While Courier Mail posts are not worth reusing in the sewerage system, I do think that the national polls and William’s poll tracker are fare too optimistic

    I suspect that you may be right. The possible Labor booster is the fact that the deep sleepers are still working for them.

    Enter Stage Right

    Some confusion as to the better managers. 😇

  16. David SpeersVerified account@David_Speers
    36m36 minutes ago
    And further to this…I’m hearing likely LNP candidate in Longman will be former (one term) state MP Trevor Ruthenberg.

    Any Qlders know much about this guy?

  17. How the Schneiderman allegations came to light.

    Back in 2013, Donald Trump was exploring a presidential run. His Trump University was in the crosshairs of New York’s crusading attorney general. Around the same time, Trump and his personal lawyer got an interesting piece of information: Eric Schneiderman, the AG, was accused of sexually abusing two women.

    After five years under wraps, those abuse allegations surfaced Friday in the Manhattan court where federal prosecutors and lawyers have been battling over documents related to Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.

    The revelations come just days after allegations of abuse by four women forced Schneiderman’s abrupt resignation. They raise concerns about how Trump may have used such information, if true, about the top prosecutor in his home state, and whether a jeering tweet from Trump’s account five years ago was a oblique reference to the allegations.

  18. Katherine Murphy on the state of play.

    It seems she maybe a Morrison fan! 🙂

    Scott Morrison periodically breaks up his pursed-lipped hectoring of his various interlocutors, or his lobotomising, Trumpesque ad hominem attacks (#UnbelievaBill) with attempts at anecdotal economic messaging, highlighting real-world impacts of government decisions, case studies and the like.

  19. All L/NP MPs seem to have adopted the lie that “Shorten was deceptive” over the citizenship “debacle”. This is just name calling, because he was trusting the legal opinion he had been given.
    I’m very tired of this.

  20. Zoom, Mose is the key name – it is part of lots of Egyptian names (Ra-Mose, Ah-Mose Ptah-Mose etc etc) and is only a guess because the language had sounds but no actual vowel expression – therefore the o, for instance, could have been an a, or an e, or a u.

    If one is to read the various prayers to the Aten (written during Akhenaten’s time but may well have had roots much earlier) they contain almost identical lines to those we would now from Christian prayer – the so-called ‘Lord’s Prayer’ is very reminiscent – using identical lines and concepts.

    The Egyptians used their term that translates as “lord” as an alternate epithet for Pharaoh (which is a word meaning great house).

    If one is to read the first 5 books of the Old Testament (especially its earliest version) substituting the word Lord, with Pharaoh, suddenly the narrative makes sense.

    Sorry – could go on for hours, but I won’t. My current novel is based around this period of history and was the focus of my tertiary studies.

  21. During Mr. Shorten’s budget reply speech last Thursday I watched the Opposition Front Bench quite closely. (those opposite to IncridiBill).

    Mr. M.B. Turnbull, for most of the speech sat in a relaxed fashion, his face a picture of slight disdain moderating to contempt for the utterances of footling upstarts.

    I have seen this act previously. I think Mr. Turnbull may be in the running for a lead role in a remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels. Precisely which role is not certain.

    The remake is said to feature two women as the “con persons” which would make Mr. Turnbull require either surgery or a drag appearance.

    You heard it here first. You may not have wanted to hear/read it – so get to it with the bell unwringing attempt. 😲

  22. Oh, one thing Zoom – the Ahmose theory has been around a while (the expulsion of the Hyksos) BUT archaeologically, there has never been evidence of any large scale movement of peoples out of Egypt. Or of large scale settlement in the areas described by the Jews as the promised lands.

    The elite about which I was speaking was earlier, comprised only 1000s not a multitude like the bible describes.

  23. lizzie @ #726 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 9:34 am

    All L/NP MPs seem to have adopted the lie that “Shorten was deceptive” over the citizenship “debacle”.

    That’s a profoundly stupid strategy, considering that video evidence exists of Turnbull loudly and arrogantly proclaiming what “the High Court will so hold” in relation to Joyce (and others). And then the High Court held no such thing.

    If Shorten has been deceptive, it’s only because he learned it from Turnbull first. Labor should drag up that video of Turnbull every single time the Coalition gives them the opportunity.

  24. I wholeheartedly commend this GetUp! campaign to the Poll Bludger community. It’s called Future To Fight For. The campaign’s policy statement can be read here:

    I wrote to GetUp! after learning about this campaign:

    I think it is very helpful and exciting that GetUp! are proposing a suite of policies that are based on a correct understanding of Australia’s monetary arrangements (that is, the constraint on federal government spending is a real resource constraint, not a financial or revenue constraint). I am glad that GetUp! consulted economists who work from the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) framework. They are the most perceptive macroeconomists in the profession. We should be making their insights mainstream. Your Future To Fight For campaign is a valuable contribution to that process.

    A federally funded, locally administered Job Guarantee is the single most important economic and social policy reform that the federal government could enact. A Job Guarantee would widen our society’s imagination of what a paid job can be. It would enable job-seekers to work collaboratively with Job Guarantee Enterprise staff to design a job around the job-seeker’s interests and abilities. This flexibility would make the jobs purposeful and meaningful for the worker. It would enable people with disabilities, mental health struggles, and low levels of education and skill to participate in paid work that enhances their capacities, increases their autonomy, and contributes to the wellbeing of their community.

    There are immense psychosocial benefits from being able to do paid work that you want to do and that is interesting and meaningful to you.

    Virtually all social ills would recede if the federal government maintained full employment at all times. And by full employment, I mean the real deal: an unemployment rate that is never above 2% (a ballpark figure for the amount of “frictional unemployment” that may exist at any given time, reflecting the fact that it can take some days or weeks for job-seekers and employers to find each other); an underemployment rate that is always zero; and a hidden unemployment rate that is always zero. Physical and mental ill health, substance addiction, crime, anti-social behaviour, and family breakdown would all become much less common if the economy were always at full employment.

    A critical advantage of a Job Guarantee would be its role as a macroeconomic stabiliser. The size of the Job Guarantee workforce would automatically expand during recessions (as people lose their private sector jobs and move into Job Guarantee jobs). The JG workforce would automatically contract during an economic recovery (as people move from JG jobs to higher paid jobs in a growing private sector). So federal spending would automatically increase during a recession (which would prevent unemployment from increasing) and automatically decrease during a boom (which would prevent inflation from increasing). The counter-cyclical nature of the JG is precisely how the federal government’s spending needs to perform in order to maintain full employment with price stability. The automatic nature of the mechanism reduces the need for discretionary spending decisions that would be slower to take effect and therefore less effective at stabilising the economy.

    Thank you so much for researching and preparing and launching this excellent campaign. I would love to contribute to the research, writing, and public speaking that the campaign entails.

  25. King says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 9:16 pm
    Our great LNP will win the seats of longman Braddon Perth freemantle and mayo and will have six seat majority and go on to win the next election

    Hi Wayne, good to see you back again.

  26. The govt’s kill-bill strategy is so pointed because, deep in their hearts, they know they run a totally s… government. I see it in their supporters all the time. They never talk about what a good job the govt is doing. They are just slobbering to make a personal attack on Shorten’s integrity. Now, whenever they do, I just start talking about the cat …

  27. “All L/NP MPs seem to have adopted the lie that “Shorten was deceptive” over the citizenship “debacle”.”

    Standard Coalition operating procedure. Repeat a convenient lie loudly and often, have it echoed in the media and actively boosted by Murdoch.

  28. The Coalition had no process at all. Labor had a process, but it relied on an interpretation of “reasonable steps” that has only now been ruled out by the court’s decision.

  29. The disgraced Quadbike has now found employment with Murdoch. It’s frightening to think that he held these views while employed as a nominally non-partisan public servant. How many similar types are employed by Dutton at the moment?

    Any signal to the people smugglers will invite a flotilla of human misery — and finish Labor. (Oz headline)

  30. If Trump is out there rallying Republicans to get out and vote it’s even more critical that Democrat voters do the same. Esp if Trump is making the midterms a referendum on his presidency!

    The rally provided a snapshot look at the role that the president hopes to play in the midterm elections this fall. He has cast this election as a referendum on his presidency and stressed that a vote for a Republican, any Republican, is a vote for Trump.

    At rallies, he can directly connect with his strongest supporters and urge them to vote for Republicans. His presidency, he says, is under attack, and no Democrat — even a moderate one — can be trusted. On stage, Trump rarely wastes time detailing the biographies or stances of the candidates he’s promoting. Instead, he talks about his own accomplishments and the ways that Democrats have blocked him from doing more.–even-if-other-names-are-on-the-ballot/2018/05/11/a5360fb4-5530-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html?utm_term=.8999ba636cc2

  31. J:

    Sharkie only handed her resignation to the Speaker yesterday, and a media release was issued stating the Speaker was considering a date for the by-election.

    Perhaps the other MPs haven’t officially tendered their resignations? I don’t know.

  32. Spare us from any more of this. How about considering the feelings of the family he betrayed?

    Hands-on Joyce flies in to kiss and cuddles
    EXCLUSIVE FORMER deputy Prime Minister Barnarby Joyce was clearly happy to be reunited with ex-staffer and the mother of his child Vikki Campion after a busy week in Canberra. (DT headline)

  33. Hands-on Joyce flies in to kiss and cuddles

    I saw that earlier. Is Newscrap trying to resurrect him? After all, he is anti-environment, pro-mining, pro-coal, looks after mates. Just the sort Murdoch wants in power.

  34. lizzie @ #735 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 10:22 am


    Well, I think we could have guessed which “side” Quadbike & Potatohead are on.

    I read the article in the Australian.

    ALP’s bleeding hearts risk new tide of boats
    Roman Quaedvlieg May 11, 2018

    Could somebody not offer this unfortunate person (Roman Quaedvlieg), saddled with an unfortunate, unpronounceable name and an incomprehensible nature as he is.
    His many talents…………………………………..would make him suitable for ……………………………

    Sorry, I can’t go on. To continue risks sadness, anxiety, even depression and madness.

    Farewell brave friends. I go to phone my family members in Canberra. ☮

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