YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

Comments Page 1 of 18
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  1. Tom the first and best @ #1876 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 12:04 am

    Applying GST to health would get lots of tax from the rich but not much from the poor because the poor use the public system (for which they pay very little directly, where GST would be directed) but the rich go to the private system much more than the poor and thus would pay more GST. The same applies with education. The poor currently pay a significantly greater proportion of their income in GST partly because of these exemptions. Private schools and medical care should be subject to the GST.

    Food is more complicated because the poor do spend on food.

    Exactly! I have said this myself for the longest time and believe Howard left these things out on purpose to encourage people into the Private sphere and as a reward for his closest friends and donors. If you can afford $35000/year to send your child to a Private School, you can afford 10% GST. If you can afford Private Health Insurance, plus the Gaps on top when you use it, you can afford 10% GST on top.

    The wealthy people in our society now have too much wealth and it’s long past time they paid their fair share into the national kitty.

  2. BK (Block)
    Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 6:54 am
    Comment #1890
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And now it’s time to feed the animals and get ready to head off to start another Bunnings sausage sizzle. And it’s raining!

    David Crowe on Shorten’s entry to the tax wars. Also the debt and deficit war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-raises-the-stakes-in-tax-war-with-pledge-to-offer-millions-of-workers-a-cut-of-up-to-928-a-year-20180510-p4zeks.html
    The CBA has accepted a number of the royal commission findings but is refuting others.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-admits-breaching-the-law-in-response-to-royal-commission-findings-20180510-p4zelg.html
    Bevan Shields tells us that Bill Shorten is making sure the argument over income tax does not overshadow three other policy fights signalled in his budget reply speech on Thursday night.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/beyond-tax-there-are-three-other-policy-fights-bill-shorten-is-squaring-up-for-20180510-p4zem5.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Shorten has handed Turnbull a character-forming task on tax.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-shorten-gives-turnbull-a-character-forming-task-on-tax-96455
    David Crowe on how Morrison devised his ‘big bang’ tax cuts to corner Labor. And he has a Shorten leadershit dig.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-morrison-devised-his-big-bang-tax-cuts-to-corner-labor-20180510-p4zeiy.html
    Dennis Shanahan says that Shorten ha called Morrison’s bluff – and more.
    https://outline.com/N7CqUJ
    Labor will support Liberal MP Sussan Ley’s bill to outlaw live exports, meaning an outright ban on the trade within five years is, for the first time, a realistic prospect.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/live-export-ban-faces-prospect-of-passing-parliament-after-labor-signs-on-20180510-p4zem2.html
    North Korea could be taking preliminary steps to close its nuclear test site, or Kim Jong-un is making the rest of the world think he is.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/something-s-going-on-at-north-korea-s-nuclear-test-site-20180511-p4zemh.html
    The SMH editorial says that sixty years after independence, Malaysia is starting to see its own democracy emerge from the shadow of one-party rule. They voted for change and might even get it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/malaysia-votes-for-change-and-may-even-get-it-20180510-p4zek0.html
    Jenna Price angrily writes that the government should spend $50 million on the ABC rather than Captain Cook.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/why-the-government-should-spend-that-50-million-on-the-abc-20180510-h0zvho.html
    Michael Koziol reckons the ABC says it will have to “cut into muscle” to absorb the Turnbull government’s latest funding cut, as it flags further trade-offs between rusted-on viewers and the new, younger audiences it is desperate to attract. IMHO they can get rid of that awful “comedy” channel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cutting-into-muscle-abc-faces-dilemma-in-absorbing-latest-funding-freeze-20180510-p4zekb.html
    The Turnbull government’s plan to dramatically flatten Australia’s income tax scales by 2024-25 would provide a tax windfall to the richest households in Australia’s capital cities, while leaving regional areas with noticeably fewer gains.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/11/coalitions-flat-tax-to-benefit-well-off-city-dwellers-over-regional-australians
    Treasurer Scott Morrison thinks his Budget will be the one that brings home the bacon, but he’s dead wrong, says Dave Donovan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-excerpt-treasurer-scott-morrisons-pig-mistake,11484
    Phil Coorey posits that for both Shorten and Turnbull Super Saturday only has downside.
    https://outline.com/H5fgfy
    One of the nation’s largest employer groups has argued against an increase in Newstart Allowance, putting it starkly at odds with the other major business lobbies which say the payment is a barrier to employment.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/welfare/2018/05/10/newstart-greens-push-rejected/
    Colin Kruger on yesterday’s AMP AGM.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/amp-investors-roast-amp-s-david-murray-on-climate-views-20180510-p4zeg4.html
    Elizabeth Knight was there too and says that AMP is in full-throttle damage control.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/they-d-like-to-see-you-on-a-spit-amp-in-full-throttle-damage-control-20180510-p4zej2.html
    The AFR’s Chanticleer writes “AMP’s record-high negative 61 per cent vote against its remuneration report is the least of the wealth manager’s worries when weighed against the prospect of the company’s core advice business disintegrating.”
    https://outline.com/MZyR5C
    Penny Hackett tells us that David Goodall’s story forces us to confront uncomfortable issues surrounding death and dying and the genuine fear that many ill and elderly people hold as they approach the end of their lives.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/david-goodall-s-story-forces-us-to-confront-uncomfortable-truths-20180510-p4zejn.html
    Trump’s Iran rumblings could easily lead to a global recession hinged on oil.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/prices-could-double-trump-s-oil-gamble-comes-at-just-the-wrong-time-20180510-p4zeek.html
    And right on cue fears grow as Israel and Iran edge closer to conflict
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/10/israel-has-hit-nearly-all-iranian-infrastructure-in-syria-military-claims
    The AFR has some details on how the government will address the cash black economy.
    https://outline.com/HpZzjg
    Turmoil within Australia’s internet domain administration could lead to it being handed back to the government, writes Laurie Patton.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/auda-given-ultimatum-to-sort-out-internal-affairs-aa,11483
    Rio Tinto and Alcoa have unveiled a new process to make aluminium that they say eliminates all direct greenhouse emissions from the traditional smelting process, and that they believe is the industry’s biggest innovation in more than a century.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rio-tinto-to-develop-new-carbon-free-aluminium-smelting-process-20180510-p4zek7.html
    The Liberal Party has launched a last-ditch effort to stop electorate boundary changes which could see two Victorian federal seats fall to Labor at the next election and the Coalition lose government.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/liberals-in-last-ditch-bid-to-stop-planned-electoral-boundary-changes-20180510-p4zegl.html
    Health authorities have no timeline for the introduction of a real-time prescription monitoring service to stop doctor shopping in NSW, an inquest into opiate deaths has heard.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/no-timeline-to-roll-out-service-to-end-doctor-shopping-court-told-20180510-p4zel0.html
    If a government’s budget is a measure of its beliefs and priorities, then clearly the Turnbull government still thinks climate change is not real and we need more carbon. Jonathan Moylan explains.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/05/10/climate-change-climate-change-2018-budget/
    Regional airlines are really under the pump if this is anything to go by.
    https://outline.com/MyhyJb
    A Senate inquiry has been announced into allegations of multinational tax avoidance among Australia’s largest for-profit nursing home providers. Good!
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/may/10/aged-care-providers-to-face-inquiry-over-alleged-tax-avoidance
    A senior child protection worker who had to work a 19-hour shift “ferrying” a distressed child to an emergency placement and stay in a motel room overnight with another child when no accommodation could be found is suing the Victorian government.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/child-protection-worker-sues-state-government-for-overwork-and-stress-20180510-p4zekn.html
    Only in America! An Iowa dog owner was hospitalized after being unexpectedly shot by his pet while playing together.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/10/iowa-dog-shoots-man
    And speaking of Iowa if a woman who has been raped doesn’t report the attack within 45 days, a new bill there would not allow her end the pregnancy
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/should-victims-be-able-to-have-abortions-republicans-dont-think-so
    This will turn out to be interesting. The state’s anti-corruption watchdog will hold a public inquiry into SafeWork SA.
    https://outline.com/fP2UcY
    Wouldn’t be too good out there in a tinny!
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/surf-s-really-up-largest-wave-ever-recorded-in-southern-ocean-20180510-p4zej6.html

  3. Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe with Keating’s recalcitrant mate.

    Mark David on Turnbull’s dream.

    Peter Broelman and the High Court outcome.

    Mark Knight also has a dip.

    Jon Kudelka and “reasonable steps”.

    Kudelka on the treatment of the ABC.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/10080e76273e2f3d09822312b33eff1f
    And of course Zanetti couldn’t resist it.

    David Pope destroys the government’s tax plans.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Quite a few good ones in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-11-2018-20180510-h0zwub.html

  4. Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 53m53 minutes ago

    Exactly as a I thought: the Murdochracy drags out the old “class war” cliché. What bullshit. Class war is when you back the banks against the people, as Trumble and SloMo have done.

  5. Every morning TV show is going hard on ‘Labor’s Citizenship Fiasco’. Particularly galling was Josh Freudenberg’s Cheshire Cat smirk on Today – if there is one MP who should be gorne on this it’s Josh. His tragic family history doesn’t get over the uber literal interpretation of the Consititution: it matters not that his family were Verboten in Hungary in WW2 – his grandparents travelled on a Hungarian passport after the war and he’s entitled to have his Hungarian citizenship recognised as a matter of right.

    In other news, I suspect that Anne Ally is also gorne. Relying on the Egyptians to actually get their act together and process the renunciation is far more fraught than even Gallagher’s situation …

  6. Richard Tuffin ‏ @RichardTuffin

    Hey ABC Journos.

    Maybe next time you’re interviewing anyone from Labor, think about who’s fighting for your jobs – and who’s trying to get rid of them.

    Just a thought.

  7. ‘Relying on the Egyptians to actually get their act together and process the renunciation is far more fraught than even Gallagher’s situation …’

    Which points to a problem I have had all along with the kind of ‘no mercy’ ruling the HC has come down with – at what point does crawlingly slow bureaucracy become a clear intention not to relinquish citizenship — and therefore ‘reasonable steps’ kick in?

    Not all countries which are determined not to relinquish citizenships are going to say that on their website.

  8. CNN’s Jake Tapper rains hell on Fox News guest who accused POW John McCain of betraying his country

    During an appearance on Fox Business New Thursday, military analyst Thomas McInerney launched a crass attack on Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who was a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War. It was enough to send CNN host Jake Tapper into full attack mode.

    “The fact is, is John McCain — it worked on John,” McInerney suggested, when speaking about the use of torture on prisoners. “That’s why they call him ‘Songbird John.’ The fact is those methods can work, and they are effective, as former Vice President Cheney said. And if we have to use them to save a million American lives, we will do whatever we have to.”

    “OK, first of all, no one calls him ‘Songbird John’ except crazy people and jerks,” Tapper said of McInerney’s insults. He noted he was using his words carefully, indicating he would like to say something more inflammatory.

    CNN legal analyst Jeff Toobin agreed, calling McInerney’s words “sickening” and “disgusting.”

    McCain spent more than five years in a POW camp in North Vietnam after his Skyhawk dive-bomber was shot down in 1967. McCain was brutally beaten as a POW after suffering severe injuries when his plane crashed. As PolitiFact reported, there is no evidence that McCain ever said anything that would have betrayed his country. In fact, McCain was given an opportunity to leave the POW camp and be sent home, but refused unless his other fellow captives were also released.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/watch-cnns-jake-tapper-rains-hell-fox-news-guest-accused-pow-john-mccain-betraying-country/

  9. Also I believe Labor aren’t going further enough to address the revenue problems both state and federal governments have. Because we have much more of a revenue than a spending problem.

    The federal government does not have and never has a revenue problem. The constraint that it needs to be mindful of is the availability of real goods and real services that are for sale in the Australian dollar. There’s a real resource constraint; not a revenue constraint.

    At present there are ample amounts of unused real resources in Australia (unemployed and underemployed people, unused materials, unused plant and equipment). In other words, there is plenty of fiscal space for the federal government to increase its net spending into households and firms in a non-inflationary way.

  10. zoomster @ #12 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 4:55 am

    ‘Relying on the Egyptians to actually get their act together and process the renunciation is far more fraught than even Gallagher’s situation …’

    Which points to a problem I have had all along with the kind of ‘no mercy’ ruling the HC has come down with – at what point does crawlingly slow bureaucracy become a clear intention not to relinquish citizenship — and therefore ‘reasonable steps’ kick in?

    Not all countries which are determined not to relinquish citizenships are going to say that on their website.

    Yep, while the HC has delivered much clarity it has failed to deliver something that facilitates the democratic process of elections.

  11. Marshall Cohen‏Verified account @MarshallCohen

    CNN can now confirm that AT&T paid Michael Cohen a total of $600,000 and that the payments were made throughout 2017, essentially all year. @brianstelter reports that Cohen got $50,000/month. A spokesman for AT&T declined to describe how the company struck the deal with Cohen.

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA · 32m32 minutes ago

    The numbers keep steadily risin’ everyday. Wait until they find out where the money went! Ooopsies!

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    The REALLY BAD STUFF about Cohen’s ex-USSR dirty money payoffs after the inauguration hasn’t dropped yet. It will soon.

    Enjoy.

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    If you’re still waiting for the Mueller mother-lode, wake up! Michael Cohen is it.

    How do you take down the mob? You take down their lawyers.

    Cohen is ground zero for money launderin’, tax fraud, bank fraud, bribery and Russian collusion. It’s got somethin’ for everyone!

  12. “Flat tax … flat tax … flat tax … flat tax …” Draw a breath, Bill. “Flat tax … flat tax … flat tax …”
    And don’t forget to thank Sco-Mo after the election.

  13. Cartoon Corner
    David Rowe with Keating’s recalcitrant mate.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Mark David on Turnbull’s dream.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Peter Broelman and the High Court outcome.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Mark Knight also has a dip.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Jon Kudelka and “reasonable steps”.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Kudelka on the treatment of the ABC.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/10080e76273e2f3d09822312b33eff1f
    And of course Zanetti couldn’t resist it.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Testing multi clipboard.

  14. Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    I hope the reporter who turned down my tip from last Friday that Rudy’s law firm was preparing to give him the heave-ho is having a great day.

    Giuliani’s Law Firm Undercuts His Statements as They Part Ways

    President Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, abruptly resigned from his law firm, which then promptly undercut his recent statements defending the president.

    Mr. Giuliani had taken a leave of absence last month from the firm, Greenberg Traurig, to represent Mr. Trump. But the firm, one of the nation’s largest, said in a statement on Thursday that he no longer worked there.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/10/us/politics/rudy-giuliani-resigns-law-firm-greenberg-traurig.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

  15. adrian @ #21 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:18 am

    Sabra Lame’s first question to Andrew Leigh:

    Do you loath aspirational voters?

    How can you win the hearts and minds of voters when you have viperous shills for the elites like that doing the interviewing of Labor MPs?

    Anyway, the ‘aspirational voters’ are going to get MORE from Labor than the Coalition, Sabra, if you could be bothered moving away from your default position of Coalition’s bitch to study the facts!

  16. Yep, while the HC has delivered much clarity it has failed to deliver something that facilitates the democratic process of elections.

    You could almost say that the ruling favours the Coalition, who can call a snap election that they all know the date for but don’t tell anyone else about such that they get all their citizenship ducks in a row and Labor get caught on the hop. Every. Single. Election.

  17. One of the best moments in Bill’s speech last night was his promise to support the ABC. Rousing cheers resulted.

  18. Yesterday, subsequent to my rhetorical question“Does that make me a Masochist ❓ “
    Came the stern replay No – just German ❗

    So ooooo ❗ Instead of using my obviously pathetic grasp of French (language) I will now cast about for a few Cherman phrases to sprinkle gently (as the soothing Autumn rain) among my occasional posts.

    Cherman is wot we (when I was a cleaner/sucurity dude/gofer at the local hospital) jokers spoke among ourselves to confuse the opposition.

    The Opposition was all other staff – particularly what was laughingly described as management.

    Vot duz ziz all mene ❓ Very little.

    Good morning all and thanks muchly to BK for a wonderful array of insights into the heart and mind of this great country.

    I look forward to a day of discovering the ins and outs of Twitter. Particularly – copying and pasting.

    😵 ☕

  19. C@tmomma I like the phrase viperous shills – seems to be a specialty of the ABC, but only when interviewing someone from Labor of course.

  20. Sam Maiden showing spirit. 😆

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 2m2 minutes ago

    Note to Henry Ergas of @australian The women the NY attorney general dated said he attacked, slapped and choked them – WITHOUT CONSENT & without warning. This is not “sexy fun” you dope. Also Portnoy’s Complaint is a novel, not a medical condition.

  21. C@tmomma @ #25 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:26 am

    Yep, while the HC has delivered much clarity it has failed to deliver something that facilitates the democratic process of elections.

    You could almost say that the ruling favours the Coalition, who can call a snap election that they all know the date for but don’t tell anyone else about such that they get all their citizenship ducks in a row and Labor get caught on the hop. Every. Single. Election.

    The ruling favours the Government.

    The Government has nearly always (’75) had the benefit of deciding when an election would be held and this just adds another element to that.

  22. GOP Strategist Steve Schmidt Absolutely Annihilates Mike Pence

    Republican strategist Steve Schmidt destroyed Mike Pence for being a total fraud who claims to take the moral high ground while slobbering and groveling to Donald Trump.

    Schmidt said of Pence on MSNBC’s Deadline: White House, “He is a titanic, and I mean titanic fraud. We have listened to this guy for many, many years in this country on his moral high horse assaulting the dignity of gay people, across the board. His moral preening is famous throughout the land. Yet he is the most obsequious of all Trump’s cultists in the cabinet.

    We have never seen such slobbering servility by a high government official in this country than we do in Mike pence and Donald Trump. It is amazing.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/10/watch-gop-strategist-steve-schmidt-absolutely-annihilate-mike-pence.html

  23. C@tmomma @ #23 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:23 am

    Kay Jay,
    You didn’t have to! But thank you anyway. 😉

    A thousand and 33 pardons Ms. C@tmomma. I was not intending to step on toes.
    Windows 10 has/will have multiple Clipboard ability. I was testing clipboard capacity.

    I think this will prove extremely useful.

    Be good to yourself. ❤

  24. Kay Jay,
    No need to apologise, I was just riffing off lizzie’s comment that the cartoons today weren’t particularly nice wrt Labor and Bill Shorten so maybe better off left on the last thread. 🙂

  25. BiGD,
    I guess I should have been more specific, I made the assumption that, if this ruling were used by the Coalition from a position of being in government, how it could favour them mightily.

  26. For the Liberals and their economists the ‘flat tax’ move makes sense if you assume the company tax cuts will be delivered in full.
    If not company tax would be 25% and the marginal rate 48%.
    People in the $200k bracket at the advice of their accountants change into companies and contract their services.

    These two changes would lock Australia into low taxing jurisdiction with limited role for government.

  27. Liberal party rep on ABC radio saying it is impossible to branch stack in the Victorian Liberal party.

    Er…..nah.

  28. Lizzie 😲

    I have been playing (nicely) with Twitter.

    I had a look at the tweet from Samantha Maiden ref “Portnoy’s Complaint.”

    Copying and pasting leaves a long string of blank space from the header to the message.

    Is this what you wrote about yesterday? 😲😲

  29. John Reidy @ #35 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:51 am

    For the Liberals and their economists the ‘flat tax’ move makes sense if you assume the company tax cuts will be delivered in full.
    If not company tax would be 25% and the marginal rate 48%.
    People in the $200k bracket at the advice of their accountants change into companies and contract their services.

    These two changes would lock Australia into low taxing jurisdiction with limited role for government.

    Exactly. The Starve the Government Beast affectionados.

    Can you imagine the massive social dislocation it would cause!?!

  30. Home and hosed. Hope Chloe chooses nice curtains for The Lodge.

    Instructive (and helpful for Labor) that the media is repeating the ALP position that they can pay for their policies by not giving away the big business tax cuts. It’s a great narrative because it’s simple and easily sold, plus having the political benefit of sticking it to the top end of town, which people like.

  31. Morning all

    Good to see Shorten take up my suggestion of tax cuts
    🙂

    PhoenixRed

    Thanks for posting latest on Trump Imbroglio
    I saw a segment by Rachel Maddow, where she clearly outlined monies paid to Cohen by the South Korean aerospace firm whose directors have been charged with corruption. They were cooking books by overcharging parts to military and pocketing the difference.
    Now why would they have given Trump’s lawyer any money!

  32. Burgey @ #41 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 6:01 am

    Home and hosed. Hope Chloe chooses nice curtains for The Lodge.

    Instructive (and helpful for Labor) that the media is repeating the ALP position that they can pay for their policies by not giving away the big business tax cuts. It’s a great narrative because it’s simple and easily sold, plus having the political benefit of sticking it to the top end of town, which people like.

    Don’t count your chickens.

    It laid a very good foundation which still needs to be built on.

    As for funding, well, he said it enough times that even the most recalcitrant in the CPG couldn’t fail to notice. 🙂

  33. William Bowe
    Those post budget opinion polls of channel 9 are not good news for ALP.
    How can ALP win the next election if theu can’t win Robertson, Chisolm and herbert?

  34. Victoria says: Friday, May 11, 2018 at 9:04 am

    Morning all

    PhoenixRed

    Thanks for posting latest on Trump Imbroglio

    *****************************************************

    Hi Victoria – I really am impressed with Michael Avenatti – I feel he has really supercharged the whole process and put the screws on the dirty secrets of Cohen – and as a result Trump

    Michael Avenatti Promises To Get To The Bottom Of The Trump Swamp If Mueller Doesn’t

    Stormy Daniels attorney Michael Avenatti promised on Wednesday that if Robert Mueller doesn’t get to the bottom of the Donald Trump-Michael Cohen swamp, then he will.

    In an interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, Avenatti said that there is a slew of unanswered questions surrounding payments made to Cohen’s slush fund – and he intends to answer them.

    Avenatti has waged all-out war in a public and relentless way against the president and his lawyer, while Mueller continues to run his thorough investigation behind the scenes.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/10/michael-avenatti-promises-trump.html

  35. Ven

    I wouldn’t get too stressed – single seat polling with such small samples is notoriously unreliable.

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