YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

• The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

• The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

Comments Page 2 of 18
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  1. John Reidy @ #35 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 6:51 am

    For the Liberals and their economists the ‘flat tax’ move makes sense if you assume the company tax cuts will be delivered in full.
    If not company tax would be 25% and the marginal rate 48%.
    People in the $200k bracket at the advice of their accountants change into companies and contract their services.

    It wouldn’t work, it’s alienation of personal services income so the income would be caught by the Personal Services Income regime and taxed as personal income.

  2. Barney,

    This one is done. Barring something horrendous like a large scale terror attack here which frightens the horses, the government is gone. it reeks of 2007 and 2013 all over again. No one’s listening, their sweetener has just been topped and the opposition still has billions up its sleeve the government doesn’t.

    Last nail in the coffin is hopefully the by-elections swing to Labor, the Libs panic and swerve hard right either back to Abbott or to Dutton. That would see a 12-15 seat win become a 25-30 seat flogging.

  3. KayJay

    No, the spaces are just a normal irritation. I used to be able to copy the pics, but no longer. Cat says she gets “copy image address”, but that has never appeared for me anyway. I think PB will just have to get along without my pictorial gems!!

  4. That doesn’t seem to be what Yougov/Galaxy is saying. They’ve got the government mostly even or slightly ahead of their previous election result.

  5. The LNP are desperate

    Yesterday it was Shifty Bill. Today its Unbeliever Bill.

    I did not know Mr Morrison was a reader of the Thomas Covenant Chronicles.

    Mr Morrison reveals his true fear with the tag however. In the series the leper that is Thomas Covenant is the hero. You are taken through the story through is eyes.

    So not only desperation but the true belief of Morrison is revealed by his use of the tag Unbeliever.

    Doesn’t have the same ring to it as Gilderoy for Turnbull of course.

  6. Ven @ #48 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:11 am

    William Bowe
    Those post budget opinion polls of channel 9 are not good news for ALP.
    How can ALP win the next election if theu can’t win Robertson, Chisolm and herbert?

    Seat level polling has a very poor track record and should be treated with great scepticism. The Bennelong by-election polls got 0/3 within MOE.

  9. Burgey @ #52 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:16 am

    Barney,

    This one is done. Barring something horrendous like a large scale terror attack here which frightens the horses, the government is gone. it reeks of 2007 and 2013 all over again. No one’s listening, their sweetener has just been topped and the opposition still has billions up its sleeve the government doesn’t.

    Last nail in the coffin is hopefully the by-elections swing to Labor, the Libs panic and swerve hard right either back to Abbott or to Dutton. That would see a 12-15 seat win become a 25-30 seat flogging.

    If Bludgertrack is even close to accurate then we’ll see massive swings to Labor the Perth by-election (the Liberals won’t run in Fremantle) and panic will really set in with the incumbents of the 5 targeted seats.

  10. PhoenixRed

    Avenatti has been a man on a mission. Has not missed a beat.

    Hope he is taking all necessary steps to look after himself. He has now made himself a huge target for those who wish to silence him.

  13. “These two changes would lock Australia into low taxing jurisdiction with limited role for government”

    I’m sure that’s what they’re meant to do.

  14. Herbert

    Not unexpected for the Libs to be marginally head. Labor barely won it because PHON had run split tickets in 2016 and Lab just got a better preference flow.

    Though as always – Individual seat polling is unreliable.

  15. Guytaur

    I should add that my favourite cat video so far, is one where cat is watching scary movie with owner. Sublime!

  16. Victoria

    Maybe we should be having a cat video a day to keep the depression away when talking about the LNP. 🙂

  22. Morning all.

    I’m not sure how I feel about Avenatti. In many respects he’s playing a confidence game, so I’m taking his statements with large grains of salt.

  23. “This one is done. Barring something horrendous like a large scale terror attack here which frightens the horses, the government is gone.”

    That’s how it looks to denizens of PB, but out there in the real world, readers of the Telecrap and viewers of TV new would think that the big story is the High Court ruling. That plus NRL/AFL goings’ on. The Daily Telecrap is in full attack mode on Bill Shorten.

    Most people get their view of what’s going on in the country and the wider from commercial TV/radio and Newscrap, often filtered through social media. Few watched Bill’s speech.

  24. Victoria

    I am still unsure what Avenatti and his client are after.

    I presume if, somehow, he gets evidence of incidental criminal activity by Cohen he should refer this to the FBI?

  26. lizzie @ #53 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 9:18 am

    KayJay

    No, the spaces are just a normal irritation. I used to be able to copy the pics, but no longer. Cat says she gets “copy image address”, but that has never appeared for me anyway. I think PB will just have to get along without my pictorial gems!!

    Big excitement today. Council jokers (blokes) doing road work.

    Quite a cool day in Newcastle.

    I’ll play with Twitter pictures during the day. ☮

  29. “Sabra Lame’s first question to Andrew Leigh:

    Do you loath aspirational voters?”

    Appropriate response: “What an idiotic question! Next!”

  30. Who gives two shits about what some starlet wore for christ sakes ABC. Its not FTA mid morning news we want from you.

  31. I don’t suppose this vid will copy, but it’s only Morrison repeating himself. “UnbelievaBill”.
    And they laughed at Shorten’s zingers!

    Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 25m25 minutes ago

    I’m just not sure this is going to cut it as an effective response…

    Here is Scott Morrison saying “UnbelieveaBill” four times in 30 seconds” #auspol #budget2018 pic.twitter.com/Ir95wxdCaQ

  32. Steve

    Yes. Then it will be time for Tour de France.

    it is winter even if we are only just seeing it now.

    Glad I am not a Hobart resident today.

  33. Steve777 @ #73 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 9:39 am

    Most people get their view of what’s going on in the country and the wider from commercial TV/radio and Newscrap, often filtered through social media. Few watched Bill’s speech.

    Which is of course why we need opinion polling. The next poll or two should tell us whether Bill is cutting through.

  34. Confessions @ #72 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:35 am

    Morning all.

    I’m not sure how I feel about Avenatti. In many respects he’s playing a confidence game, so I’m taking his statements with large grains of salt.

    I’ll believe the Trump freak show is at an end when I see him on YouTube being walked out of the White House.

    My fear is he’ll walk out at the end of his second term, having pardoned himself.

  35. Steve,
    It’s not here on PB that it’s happening, it’s everywhere. There’s 100-120K people marching in Melbourne the other day, a string of polls showing the govt behind and everywhere people turn they see the govt wanting to give tax cuts to the same companies the RC is showing are a pack of crooks. People have made up their mind, they want the govt gone.

  36. Apparently Hannity portrayed his property investment in working class areas as a generosity thing, and act of goodwill. However…

    But a Washington Post analysis shows that managers at Hannity’s four largest apartment complexes in Georgia have taken an unusually aggressive approach to rent collection. They have sought court-ordered evictions at twice the statewide rate — in a state known for high numbers of evictions and landlord-friendly laws — and frequently have done so less than two weeks after a missed payment.

    Property managers at the complexes sought to evict tenants more than 230 times in 2017, court records show. At one, a 112-unit subdivision in a suburb west of Atlanta, 94 eviction actions were filed last year, records show.

    Among the tenants Hannity’s property managers sought to evict, records show, were a former corrections officer and her wife, who fell behind while awaiting a disability determination; a double amputee who had lived in an apartment with her daughter for five years but did not pay on time after being hospitalized; and a single mother of three whose $980 rent check was rejected because she could not come up with a $1,050 cleaning fee for a bedbug infestation.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/at-hannitys-properties-in-low-income-areas-an-aggressive-approach-to-rent-collection/2018/05/10/964be4a2-4eea-11e8-84a0-458a1aa9ac0a_story.html?utm_term=.377730155768

  37. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 21h21 hours ago

    “Unbelievably slack”, “massive test of leadership”, “pressure on Bill Shorten”. @frankelly08 attacking Labor like she attacks no other party. Time to resign and take up LNP membership. Might be a few seats in Adelaide available for you. #AUSPOL

  38. grimace:

    I’m not quite prepared to give up hope that Mueller’s investigation will bear something on him that makes his continued presidency untenable.

  39. From previous thread:

    bemused (Block)
    Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 9:40 am
    Comment #1898

    ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #1886 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 6:16 am

    What the high court has said is that govts will be in the box seat when selecting candidates because they will be able to bully foreign govts (e.g. NZ with Barnyard) to get quick renunciations. Well done, boys.

    They have not said that, but it may tend to be the effect.
    However, as anyone who has ever dealt with bureaucracies such as Centrelink, Telstra etc can probably attest, you need to keep on the case with plenty of follow up to move them along. I haven’t seen anything referring to those involved in citizenship issues ever doing this.

  40. zoomster @ #12 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:55 am

    ‘Relying on the Egyptians to actually get their act together and process the renunciation is far more fraught than even Gallagher’s situation …’

    Which points to a problem I have had all along with the kind of ‘no mercy’ ruling the HC has come down with – at what point does crawlingly slow bureaucracy become a clear intention not to relinquish citizenship — and therefore ‘reasonable steps’ kick in?

    Not all countries which are determined not to relinquish citizenships are going to say that on their website.

    Which reinforces the position I have argued that Australia should take control of renunciation of foreign citizenships, for the purposes of Australian law, and legislate for a simple procedure administered in Australia.

    What claims foreign governments may choose to make should not be allowed to affect Australians in Australia.

  42. This is unfair, IMO (look at the headline).

    The Victorian supreme court on Thursday ordered Rudd to give evidence via video link from New York during the trial, which began in late April and is expected to last six weeks.

    The class action over the cancellation in 2010 of the Rudd government’s home insulation program is seeking about $150m in damages from the commonwealth.

    More than 140 businesses have joined the class action, which claims they suffered heavy losses when the program was shut down for safety reasons as a result of the government’s negligence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/10/kevin-rudd-to-give-evidence-in-class-action-over-failed-pink-batts-scheme

  47. adrian @ #21 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:18 am

    Sabra Lame’s first question to Andrew Leigh:

    Do you loath aspirational voters?

    Designed to throw him off balance.

    The obvious response is that all of our voters have aspirations. They aspire to their kids having a decent education, a decent health care system etc. etc. ad nauseum.

  48. Michael Avenatti drops bombshell on Cohen and Trump associates: we have e-mails, text messages, other financial information to share

    Stormy Daniels’ lawyer, Michael Avenatti gave a loud and clear warning to Michael Cohen on Thursday.

    In an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, Avenatti asserted that he was just getting started. Earlier this week, Avenatti broke the internet when he released documents that claimed Michael Cohen received roughly a half a million dollars from a Russian oligarch.

    “I’ll tell you we haven’t even scratched the surface with this email and the information we released, we have e-mails, text messages, other financial information and people better be very careful in the representations they make — and I’m speaking to you Michael Cohen,” Avenatti said. “You better be careful in the representations you make in court filings and the American people because we’ll prove you wrong if the need be, period.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/michael-avenatti-drops-bombshell-cohen-trump-associates-e-mails-texts-financial-info-share/

  49. C@t

    The Rachel Maddow segment you linked is one I was referring to earlier re the South Korean aerospace company!

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