YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

• The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

• The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

Comments Page 3 of 18
1 2 3 4 … 18

  3. Deputy Opposition Leader @tanya_plibersek will visit UTS at 10:30am to talk about Labor’s plan to invest in unis and TAFE. A doorstop will follow #auspol

  4. Sam Maiden on Sky making an utter goose of herself arguing legalities with a QC (Dreyfus) the same QC that argued successfully about Japanese whaling in the International court in Den Haag

  6. guytaur @ #55 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:20 am

    the Thomas Covenant Chronicles.

    Good to see someone else is a fan of these books. The First Chronicles are my favourite work of fiction ever. The Second Chronicles are very wordy with a pretty anti-climactic, but logical ending. Haven’t got around to reading the Final Chronicles yet.

    Saltheart Foamfollower from the First Chronicles is one of my favourite characters in fiction as well, along with Lord Mhoram.

  7. Confessions @ #88 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    grimace:

    I’m not quite prepared to give up hope that Mueller’s investigation will bear something on him that makes his continued presidency untenable.

    Mueller has one shot at this. He needs to pull a reverse-Comey; drop all his most damning evidence a few days before the midterm elections so that the Democrats sweep the House and the Senate and step into office with the perfect excuse for taking down Trump.

  9. As for Lame’s aspirational voter question, I noticed that Tony Burke had a good tactic the other day when asked a stupid question by Sales.

    He forrowed his brow!

    He normally has a charming, friendly and open expression so this was quiet a change.

    It gave a distinct impression that he thought the question was ‘curious’ and made Sales look a dill. (Yes not hard to do I know).

  10. The same interview from 2 viewpoints?

    ResistantJen‏ @conceravota · 6m6 minutes ago

    I note that Sam Maiden on @skynewsaust is attempting to distract from Shorten’s budget reply by making a goose of herself arguing legalities with a QC. More appalling nonsense I haven’t seen in a while #auspol

    Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 10m10 minutes ago

    Mark Dreyfus is enduring a slow and painful grilling by @samanthamaiden on Anne Aly’s citizenship status. A very bad interview for the potential next attorney-general #auspol

  12. Victoria says: Friday, May 11, 2018 at 10:03 am

    PhoenixRed

    Who would have thought that Lawyer for a porn star would be the humungous thorn in Trump’s side!

    **********************************************************

    From Watergate history – its not the crime but the blowing of the COVER-UP of the Daniels hush money that may take the whole Trump Crime Family and all who associated with them down like a pack of cards !!!! …..

    In the classics- for want of a nail a shoe was lost …….. A story in which one small change has a ripple effect, resulting in massive changes.

  14. That recent report in the Washington Post was one I linked to the other day showing Trump’s investments. That alone was eyebrow-raising even before we knew about the Cohen shell company.

    This sort of suspicious cash was at the heart of a recent report by The Washington Post that found that in the decade before the election, Mr. Trump did something unusual for a real estate developer — he all but stopped borrowing money. Multiple bankruptcies had no doubt exhausted his welcome at any reputable bank, so perhaps the man who called himself the “King of Debt” became more prudent, or he simply faced reality. What happened next, though, was more unusual. Beginning in 2006, the Trump Organization spent $400 million in cash on various projects. The president’s son Eric said they were able to do that with cash generated by other Trump businesses, even at the height of the Great Recession. That explanation has raised the eyebrows of business experts.

    It also contradicts what Eric and his older brother, Donald Trump Jr., said in the years before the word “Russian” became radioactive for them.

    “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross section of a lot of our assets,” Donald Jr. said in 2008. “We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/opinion/trumps-shadowy-money-trail.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  16. PhoenixRed

    I am thinking that in this case, the crimes are also fairly significant
    Nixon wasn’t a treasonous traitor

  17. I agree Burgey, a simple message is good, also less chance of unintended consequences.
    It was the Crowe article I think, that was talking about how the government’s tax policy was a master plan by Morrison and they now have Labor exactly where they want them.
    It also had the curious point that Labor wouldn’t match them on tax cuts.

    It also doesn’t mention when polled most voters prefer better services to tax cuts. This support may be soft but it is consistent.

  18. In light of the ABC’s strident and sometimes not so strident propaganda efforts on behalf of the government, we are now apparently being asked to stand up for said ABC in the face of government cutbacks announced in the budget.

    I’ll stand up for the ABC when it grows a spine, and becomes something more than a pale reflection of a shadow of a passing idea of what a public broadcaster should be.

  19. Dan Gulberry @ #106 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:05 am

    guytaur @ #55 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:20 am

    the Thomas Covenant Chronicles.

    Good to see someone else is a fan of these books. The First Chronicles are my favourite work of fiction ever. The Second Chronicles are very wordy with a pretty anti-climactic, but logical ending. Haven’t got around to reading the Final Chronicles yet.

    Saltheart Foamfollower from the First Chronicles is one of my favourite characters in fiction as well, along with Lord Mhoram.

    Surprised you young ones know about it.

    He gets a bit heavy with the religious analogies at times but still a good read.

    Haven’t been able get the final book of the Last Chronicles so still to finish them all. 🙂

  20. Quentin Demptser tweets

    @BevanShields @JoeHockey @TonyAbbottMHR So Mr Shields @BevanShields I stand by my use of the word “survival”. ABC Board will soon set out the inevitable consequences of latest @ScottMorrisonMP punitive ABC cuts in response to @PaulineHansonOz ‘s vindictive demands.

  21. Victoria says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 10:11 am
    Goodness me. Is there a question mark on Anne Ally’s citizenship?

    Wasn’t there a problem with renouncing her Egyptian citizenship in time?

  22. Victoria – apparently Aly lost her citizenship as a child – she wrote the embassy in May 16 to confirm. Embassy confirmed a few days later, before noms closed. Shorten has asked her to check more closely after the story.

    Sam Maiden deliberately misinterpreted the letter from the embassy.

    Shame they don’t do the same forensic examination of Frydenberg Sukkar etc

  24. Barney – read the last one … must say, after such a long hiatus was a little disappointed in the ending but I’d be interested to hear others’ opinions

  25. [As for Lame’s aspirational voter question, I noticed that Tony Burke had a good tactic the other day when asked a stupid question by Sales.

    He forrowed his brow!

    He normally has a charming, friendly and open expression so this was quiet a change.

    It gave a distinct impression that he thought the question was ‘curious’ and made Sales look a dill. (Yes not hard to do I know).]

    The change of facial expression doesn’t work so well on radio.

  26. @Ven – 9:11am:

    “How can ALP win the next election if theu can’t win Robertson, Chisolm and herbert?”

    ALP can afford to lose two out of those three and still win the election.

    Because of the redistribution in Victoria all Labor has to do is hold on to be ahead. I think it is likely to actually pick up a couple of seats, Chilsolm amongst them.

    I have Gilmore and Banks penciled in before Robertson in NSW.

    I think a gain of 3 in WA is most probable – even if the state Labor 2PP comes back (as I expect it will a bit).

    Queensland – could go either way. It is possible that Labor could lose both Longman and Herbert. Equally it could pick up Forde, Flynn and Capricornia.

    At this stage I cant see anything less than an 8 seat net gain by Labor. Add in the likely support for supply from Brandt and Wilkie and that amounts to a pretty comfortable working majority.

    However, given the absolutely daft LNP budget ‘strategy’ and the way Shorten and Labor has nailed them I think we are still on track for a minimum Labor return of 81 seats+ at the next election.

  28. These polls indicate to me that Turnbull will go to an election as early as August. Hopefully the new boundaries for ACT, SA and VIC are finalised by then. I will point out if that opinion poll on Chisholm was done on the old boundaries, the result would be roughly 52-48 in the Liberals favour accounting for the new boundaries.

    I will also add that Malcolm Turnbull should have established an independent audit to sort out the eligibility of MP’s when this whole section 44 business came up. If this had emerged when John Howard was Prime Minister he would have exactly done that.

    @Andrew_Earlwood

    If there is a Cowan by-election the Australian Liberty Alliance, Australian Conservatives and possibly One Nation will launch a high profile campaigns aimed at unseating Anne Aly. The by-election I predict is going to be pretty brutal.

    It is not that she is a Muslim, she is also a counter-terrorism expert and the ‘counterjihad’ blog Jihad Watch have been quite scornful of her for a number of years, even before she became an MP and was still working as an academic.

    Jihad Watch is a blog run by Robert Spencer, who has spoken at Q Society of Australia (along with Corey Bernardi) functions. There are links between the Q Society of Australia and both the Australian Conservatives and the Australian Liberty Alliance.

    These are the articles on Jihad Watch about Anne Aly if you want to know a bit more.

    https://www.jihadwatch.org/tag/anne-aly

  29. Dana Bash tweets

    Rudy Giuliani says his now former law firm never reached out to him before issuing statement dissing him today “The law firm has a lot of good people and a lot of people that hate my client and I don’t particularly appreciate that” he tells CNN.

  30. If there’s a straightforward way of saying something using simple language, and an obscure way of saying the same thing that forces most of the readers to consult a dictionary, Stephen Donaldson would choose the latter without fail. His works would be a lot easier to read if he weren’t so obsessed with showing off his vocabulary.

  31. I didn’t believe Leigh Sales asked that ‘what about people earning $200,000pa’ question, but she did. And demonstrated that she doesn’t understand progressive taxation.

    LEIGH SALES: To come back again to this point about fairness. An Australian on $200,000 a year pays $60,000 a year in tax. Somebody earning $50,000 pays $8,000 a year in tax. So the higher income earner pays about, sorry, gets about four times as much income but they pay more than seven times as much tax. How is that fair?

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/leigh-sales-interviews-bill-shorten-after-his/9749128

  34. Steve K @ #125 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 10:17 am

    [As for Lame’s aspirational voter question, I noticed that Tony Burke had a good tactic the other day when asked a stupid question by Sales.

    He forrowed his brow!

    He normally has a charming, friendly and open expression so this was quiet a change.

    It gave a distinct impression that he thought the question was ‘curious’ and made Sales look a dill. (Yes not hard to do I know).]

    The change of facial expression doesn’t work so well on radio.

    🙂

  37. Tristo @ #128 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:19 am

    …

    Jihad Watch is a blog run by Robert Spencer, who has spoken at Q Society of Australia (along with Corey Bernardi) functions. There are links between the Q Society of Australia and both the Australian Conservatives and the Australian Liberty Alliance.

    These are the articles on Jihad Watch about Anne Aly if you want to know a bit more.

    https://www.jihadwatch.org/tag/anne-aly

    Well, you have always been out there a bit but citing a site like Jihad Watch as a credible source has certainly tainted you credibility.

  38. The actual lame Lane question:

    ‘SABRA LANE: Labor is promising to double the cash handouts to middle- and low-income families, but not higher income families.

    Does Labor loathe aspirational working Australians?’

  39. Was this a slush fund for more than paying off a porn star?

    Michael Cohen’s financial operation becomes more intriguing — and horrifying — by the day. The Post reports:

    Details that emerged this week reveal how Cohen quickly leveraged his role as [President] Trump’s personal attorney, developing a lucrative sideline as a consultant to companies eager for insight into how to navigate the new administration. The rapid flow of millions of dollars to Cohen shows the rush by corporations — unable to rely on the influence of Washington’s traditional lobbying class in dealing with a new, populist outsider president — to lock in relationships with Trump’s inner circle.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/05/10/was-this-a-slush-fund-for-more-than-paying-off-a-porn-star/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7ea1e3854a68

  40. Barney

    To be fair. Is it Tristo that is out there or is he just pointing out the wackiness of the attackers to be expected at the election campaign?

    Same wacky people got Trump elected.

  42. Charming.

    A White House official mocked Sen. John McCain’s brain cancer diagnosis at an internal meeting on Thursday, a day after the Arizona Republican announced his opposition to President Trump’s nominee for CIA director, Gina Haspel.

    Special assistant Kelly Sadler made the derisive comments during a closed-door White House meeting of about two-dozen communications staffers on Thursday morning.

    “It doesn’t matter, he’s dying anyway,” Sadler said, according to a source familiar with the remarks at the meeting.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/387182-white-house-official-mocked-dying-mccain-at-internal-meeting?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

  43. Latest Rick Wilson brilliant column – he is very serious today !!

    America is in the middle of a Russian influence campaign – not at the end

    Donald Trump’s longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen is playing a starring role in a riveting drama featuring the President, Special Counsel Robert Mueller, Putin-connected oligarchs, shady vory v zakone-adjacent moneymen, and American and Russian corporations seeking influence with the Trump Administration. For Americans, this is a new lurid political drama, but it’s one London has seen up close for two decades. It’s the story of the inevitable consequences that result when Russian money, influence and corruption slither up on Western shores.

    The staggering number of ties to Russia and Russians that define both Trump’s business dealings and his campaign is almost comical, and for the Russians he presented a target even more rewarding than they could have imagined.

    If I were in Cohen’s shoes, I’d avoid rooftops, enter the Witness Protection Program as soon as Bob Mueller makes the offer, and retain the services of a food taster, especially if he’s going to dine at Trump-branded restaurants.

    https://usa.spectator.co.uk/2018/05/america-is-in-the-middle-of-a-russian-influence-campaign-not-at-the-end/

  44. I liked the space series

    As well as the Mordant’s need series.

    His series are a good way of presenting philosophical questions over morality.

  45. adrian @ #138 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:28 am

    The actual lame Lane question:

    ‘SABRA LANE: Labor is promising to double the cash handouts to middle- and low-income families, but not higher income families.

    Does Labor loathe aspirational working Australians?’

    All Australians have aspirations and we support that but some Australians have an immediate need and it’s those people we will target financially.

  47. Ante Meridian @ #130 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    If there’s a straightforward way of saying something using simple language, and an obscure way of saying the same thing that forces most of the readers to consult a dictionary, Stephen Donaldson would choose the latter without fail. His works would be a lot easier to read if he weren’t so obsessed with showing off his vocabulary.

    Forcing readers to consult a dictionary increases the vocabulary of the reader. So, educational as well as entertaining. 😉

  48. guytaur @ #140 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:29 am

    Barney

    To be fair. Is it Tristo that is out there or is he just pointing out the wackiness of the attackers to be expected at the election campaign?

    Same wacky people got Trump elected.

    He was questioning Aly’s integrity and using the website as evidence to support.

  49. Those who still have respect for the ABC and Leigh sales will have lost a point or two after last night’s performance. It was quit disgraceful.

    When they win government the ALP should quietly advise the ABC that NO minister will appear on her program AND that should they interview opposition people without “balance” ABC funding will be cut.

    She can still broadcast fluff pieces which is about he competency level.

  50. @Andrew_Earlwood

    I am suspecting that there are safer Liberal seats under risk of being lost to Labor.

    In Victoria, I will add Latrobe to the list of a possible Labor Gain. Because the redistribution has included fast growing and strongly Labor voting Pakenham.

    Overall Corangamite (will called Cox from now on) and Dunkley are going to Labor gains due to the redistribution which makes the former line-ball and the latter marginal Labor.

    In regards to Chisholm, the redistribution has meant that lost it’s southern Southern end (Oakleigh) which is quite strong for Labor and added more of the Whitehorse and Monash council areas North of the Monash freeway which lean Liberal. The notional 3% Liberal margin is going to more like 4% if you add a sophomore swing to Julia Banks.

    In Victoria I see Dunkley, Cox and possibly Latrobe as Labor gains, and Chisholm to be retain by the Liberals narrowly.

Comments Page 3 of 18
1 2 3 4 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *