Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 24
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  1. For anyone interested.
    I have been getting spammed relentlessly by the Democrats about this election.

    Arizona Special Election Results: Eighth House District

    By THE NEW YORK TIMES

    Debbie Lesko has won the election.

    Candidate Party Votes Pct.
    Debbie Lesko Republican 91,390 52.6%
    Hiral Tipirneni Democrat 82,318 47.4

    173,708 votes, 100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)

    The former Arizona state senator Debbie Lesko fended off an energetic Democratic challenge to win the special congressional election on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press.

    Tuesday’s special election in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District, in the conservative suburbs outside Phoenix, revealed the depth of Republicans’ political challenges in 2018. Ms. Lesko was favored to win over Hiral Tipirneni, a Democrat and emergency room doctor, in a district that supported Donald J. Trump in 2016 by more than 20 points.

    Even so, national Republicans spent more than $1 million to help Ms. Lesko. With an outcome this close in a district that should have Republicans winning big, it is another sign of Democratic enthusiasm, organizational muscle and determination to send a message about President Trump and his party.

    See the drop in Republican margins in special elections since Donald J. Trump became president.

    The congressional seat became vacant this year when Representative Trent Franks resigned amid reports that he pressed female aides to serve as surrogate mothers for Mr. Franks and his wife.

  2. zoomster:

    We don’t know the full circumstances in which Marles offered his comments outside of what has been reported in the Oz. No other msm outlet seems to be running them, so perhaps he offered commentary only to this Greg person.

    I still think he could’ve handled it better and more forcefully, allowing no room for interpretation that Labor was backing Nelson’s crazy idea.

  5. lizzie @ #696 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    On the question of medical marijuana, there does seem to be medical support for its use against epileptic fits. Or am I wrong about that, too…

    I have seen a number of such reports that seemed very persuasive.
    But I believe the medical marijuana has very little of the component that causes highs.

  6. fess

    Yep. As I said earlier, I have the transcripts of four interviews with Marles from the last couple of days. I can’t find anything remotely like that quote.

  7. bemused

    But I believe the medical marijuana has very little of the component that causes highs.

    Which is the point, isn’t it. 🙂

  8. On another note, I don’t know why people bother with the US version of Netflix. The Canadian version is vastly superior. Combine the best elements of the US, UK and Australian versions and you have the Canadian version.

  12. lizzie @ #696 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    On the question of medical marijuana, there does seem to be medical support for its use against epileptic fits. Or am I wrong about that, too…

    As rhwombat explained earlier, research has concluded that cannabinoids are useful only for those forms of epilepsy that are responsive to the action of cannabinoids on CB1 and CB2 receptors.

  13. The ABC has reached a new and disgusting low.

    A banner news line referring to the sad death of respected unionist Tony Cook reads “union leader and son of serial killer Tony Cook dies” (as close as I can remember it in my fury).

    Why the connection between union leader and “son of serial killer” except to denigrate a worthy man who has striven mightily and selflessly for the welfare and advancement of working class people, and to associate the union movement with the sins of his father.

    Cheap, crass, offensive, unfeeling, disrespectful, insolent, and politically malevolent.

    I feel soiled having read this garbage.

  15. lizzie @ #703 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    C@t

    I promise not to quote Little Bertie ever again (altho I don’t follow her – must have been from a retweet).

    Don’t do that.

    It was fun. 🙂

    Plus it showed that the Labor supporters will jump on what they see as a bad decision by Labor.

    And poor Rexy has just been shown he is wrong again. 🙂

  16. lizzie @ #703 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:45 pm

    C@t

    I promise not to quote Little Bertie ever again (altho I don’t follow her – must have been from a retweet).

    Ah, lizzie, some people can’t help being overenthusiastic and go a little too far sometimes. Especially some Greens, which I think, from my experience on Twitter, @LittleBertie is. 🙂

    However, follow whoever you want! I’m not trying to be precious about it. 🙂

  17. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/25/mass-resignations-at-chinese-owner-of-australias-largest-dairy-farm-cast-doubt-on-investment?CMP=soc_568

    The federal agriculture minister, David Littleproud, issued a short statement to Guardian Australia when asked about the mass resignation.

    He said: “It’s important foreign investment review board conditions are taken seriously.”

    One of the promises made by Moon Lake when it bought the VDL farms was to give “in principle” support for the construction of a “devil proof” fence at its Woolnorth property. The fence was to provide sanctuary for the endangered Tasmanian devil and help prevent the spread of the deadly devil facial tumour disease.

    The Tasmanian Conservation Trust director, Peter McGlone, said the promise was simply spin, which was not adequately questioned by media at the time.

    All the company had offered was to agree to a fence being built if the state government wished to build one.

    “They were not going to pay for it, it was the state government,” McGlone told Guardian Australia.

    McGlone said the fence, even if it was realised, would do little to help the endangered species. That was because the many creeks on the vast property would allow the devils to bypass it easily. The fence would also require land clearing, which would take away habitat.

    “The other challenge is that you would almost certainly need a double fence, to provide a surety against one fence failing,” McGlone said. “If you put all those things together, it’s a very expensive fence, very complicated, not assured of actually enclosing the devils, then on top of that you’ve got all the maintenance costs.”

    Discussions of the fence tended to ignore a more important point about the site, McGlone said.

    “The promises about the fence, it’s really frustrating that they always seem to overshadow the fact that they have a permit from the state government to clear 1,800ha of devil habitat,” he said.

  18. Fulvio Sammut @ #713 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:54 pm

    The ABC has reached a new and disgusting low.

    A banner news line referring to the sad death of respected unionist Tony Cook reads “union leader and son of serial killer Tony Cook dies” (as close as I can remember it in my fury).

    Why the connection between union leader and “son of serial killer” except to denigrate a worthy man who has striven mightily and selflessly for the welfare and advancement of working class people, and to associate the union movement with the sins of his father.

    Cheap, crass, offensive, unfeeling, disrespectful, insolent, and politically malevolent.

    I feel soiled having read this garbage.

    I thought exactly the same thing. The ABC should be ashamed of itself … but somehow I think they will be snickering instead.

  19. Confessions @ #711 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:53 pm

    Dan G:

    Do you have a link to the Canadian Netflix?

    No. You log on to Netflix from a Canadian IP address. It automatically detects what country you’re logging on from and shows you the range of content available in that market.

    If the device you watch Netflix here is say, a tablet, if you were in the UK at the time you’d log onto Netflix as per normal, but the content you’d be offered would be different to that available here. Then if you did a trip through Europe, your account would show you what’s available in the different countries there.

    As Grimace says, you can use a VPN to access any countries content from Australia. Personally I can’t be bothered as there’s more than enough good stuff available on Netflix AU, and most of what is available elsewhere I have on dvd anyway. Of course Netflix’s originals are available everywhere and are released at pretty much the same time worldwide as well.

    I should also add that some of the stuff available on Netflix US, UK and Canada is available here on Stan anyway.

  23. No. You log on to Netflix from a Canadian IP address. It automatically detects what country you’re logging on from and shows you the range of content available in that market.

    That would explain why sometimes googling a movie you want to watch and it brings up a Netflix link, but it doesn’t let you access it through your Netflix account.

  28. Barney in Go Dau @ #715 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    lizzie @ #703 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    C@t

    I promise not to quote Little Bertie ever again (altho I don’t follow her – must have been from a retweet).

    Don’t do that.

    It was fun. 🙂

    Plus it showed that the Labor supporters will jump on what they see as a bad decision by Labor.

    And poor Rexy has just been shown he is wrong again. 🙂

    Wrong is the default position for Rex. 😀

  29. bemused @ #728 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:16 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #715 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    lizzie @ #703 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    C@t

    I promise not to quote Little Bertie ever again (altho I don’t follow her – must have been from a retweet).

    Don’t do that.

    It was fun. 🙂

    Plus it showed that the Labor supporters will jump on what they see as a bad decision by Labor.

    And poor Rexy has just been shown he is wrong again. 🙂

    Wrong is the default position for Rex. 😀

    Being a boorish creep seems to be your default position!

  30. Greensborough Growler @ #729 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    bemused @ #728 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:16 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #715 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    lizzie @ #703 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    C@t

    I promise not to quote Little Bertie ever again (altho I don’t follow her – must have been from a retweet).

    Don’t do that.

    It was fun. 🙂

    Plus it showed that the Labor supporters will jump on what they see as a bad decision by Labor.

    And poor Rexy has just been shown he is wrong again. 🙂

    Wrong is the default position for Rex. 😀

    Being a boorish creep seems to be your default position!

    Better that than a f***wit like you.

  32. Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:11 pm
    Comment #523

    Being old (in body) I have to ponder the events when the universe ceases to exist.

    In the meanwhile I have to manage with my little fantasies, such as, Ms. Hanson has a road to Damascus moment, becomes a sincere and devoted advocate for indigenous rights and for the acceptance of Muslim, Baptist and Jew in the community.

    You probably know this song.

    Catch the Wind – Donovan and Crystal Gayle – not a lot to do with anything but a great song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMknrmuDD0o&list=RDTMknrmuDD0o

  34. Remember when Malcolm Turnbull and Josh Frydenburg went to Queensland to ‘save’ The Great Barrier Reef and Turnbull preened and puffed out his chest and got some great photo opportunities out of the trip?

    After climate change, poor water quality is the most pressing problem facing the reef. It is largely caused by nutrient, pesticide and sediment run-off from agriculture and coastal development. It can cause algal growth at the expense of coral, block light and smother corals, as well as exacerbate outbreaks of the venomous crown-of-thorns starfish, which are a major cause of coral loss.

    Official figures obtained by Fairfax Media show the Turnbull government will spend $154 million improving reef water quality over five years from July 2017.

    However separate documents show it was expected to spend $212 million over five years from July 2015 – representing a fall of $58 million, or more than $11 million a year.

    Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said the government was committed to the Reef 2050 plan.

    The office of Minister for the Environment and Energy Josh Frydenberg did not dispute the figures.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/funding-for-great-barrier-reef-water-quality-falls-despite-crisis-20180423-p4zb6r.html

  35. Dan Gulberry @ #698 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #673 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:17 pm

    grimace @ #647 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    Confessions @ #551 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 12:17 pm

    Dan G:

    According to the Washington Post they are airing 2 eps tonight (tomorrow) and then one weekly.

    That’s great news we’re getting it without having to wait. I’m totally addicted!

    Use a VPN client to watch it on Hulu.

    Is that legal ?

    Yes, but it is probably against Hulu’s Terms Of Service.

    Re the breach of Hulu’s terms of services. You should see the dump I “live” in in Chicago. Nobody’s going there to check if I really live there or not, I can tell you that for sure.

    Hulu can get stuffed on their terms of service, I’ve paid them the amount they asked for. If they wanted more then they should have asked for it when I signed up.

  37. It’s nice that the boss of AMEO is concerned about the welfare of people like me who don’t have solar panels. However the fact she made the comments at the very RW Centre for Independent Studies suggests she has another agenda in mind – protecting the business of the coal fired generators.

    ‘I’m truly concerned’: AEMO chief warns on rooftop solar

    The rise of rooftop solar has helped drive down electricity costs for many Australians but the head of the energy market operator warns those still on the grid have been punished with higher prices.

    “I am truly concerned over the issue of an economic bypass,” Audrey Zibelman, the head of the Australian Energy Market Operator, said at a Centre for Independent Studies event this week.

    “We do not want to invite an economic bypass,” she said, “creating the haves and the have-nots.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/i-m-truly-concerned-aemo-chief-warns-on-rooftop-solar-20180424-p4zbg0.html

  39. Citizen, if you don’t have panels, you are paying extra. One reason is that consumers are paying for the ‘poles and wires’ prorate to their consumption. People with panels are consuming less electricity drawn so are paying less for the poles and wires and you are paying more to make it up.

  42. PeeBee says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 6:50 pm
    Citizen, if you don’t have panels, you are paying extra. One reason is that consumers are paying for the ‘poles and wires’ prorate to their consumption. People with panels are consuming less electricity drawn so are paying less for the poles and wires and you are paying more to make it up.

    I’m not sure that’s correct.

    I’m paying ActewAGL a “supply charge” plus an “electricity consumption charge”. Presumably the supply charge is for the poles and wires, while the consumption charge varies according to the level of consumption.

    Unless a person with panels is totally off the grid, they presumably pay the supply charge even if their purchased electricity is very low.

  44. “Being a boorish creep seems to be your default position!

    Better that than a f***wit like you.”

    That is not really a useful contribution.

  45. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 5:33 pm
    Thank you, don for putting up the information about Ibogaine.

    I researched as much as I could about it some time ago.

    I am a fan of Jean Auel’s series of books about ice age life as it applies to a child and later woman, Ayla. There are many fans of the books, and the books literally changed my life, sending me on a permanent quest for more knowledge about the ice ages and the people and tools and art objects associated with them. I started my website on the books and the archaeology of the stone age before there was an internet, just for my own pleasure. It grew like Topsy after that.

    A good start for Auel’s books is either “Valley of the Horses” (my favourite) or “Clan of the Cave Bear”, which is the first in the series.

    I spend much of every day researching and working on my photographs, publishing on my website, mostly from European archaeology sites and museums. I am going to Europe again for a couple of months this Northern Hemisphere summer to continue gathering photos from museums and archaeology sites.

    Ibogaine was used in Auel’s books as a way of communicating with ancestors, much as it is used in Africa today.

  46. Don,
    Those books are a favourite of mine. I got the image of a woman wandering through a green savannah, gathering food as she went, and there being few humans on a vegetated Earth.

    I so wanted to be her.

  47. Don

    How fascinating. I am also a fan of the Jean Auel books but didn’t pick up the Ibogaine. I enjoyed them for the insight into communication before spoken language.

    And of course admired the depth of research and writing style.

  50. DG:

    Once again, why would you got to he expense (albeit small) of a VPN and Hulu subscription when you can watch it legally on SBS, or SBS On Demand for free?

    VPN is more than that. It allows you to use dodgy public wifi such as in budget hotels or cafes without the risks (of your passwords etc being copied) associated with that process.

    For me, the ability to access geographically restricted programming is a bonus, not the main reason I pay for it.

    When you need anonymity and an encrypted tunnel on a public wifi, such as in a European cafe or railway station or budget hotel, you need it bad.

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