Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 24
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  1. Dan G:

    According to the Washington Post they are airing 2 eps tonight (tomorrow) and then one weekly.

    That’s great news we’re getting it without having to wait. I’m totally addicted!

  2. https://www.smh.com.au/education/private-school-wait-list-fees-cost-families-hundreds-at-child-s-birth-20180423-p4zb8g.html

    Scots College, which had year 12 school fees of nearly $35,000 last year, is charging parents a $500 application fee followed by a non-refundable $5000 entrance fee to accept an offer.

    Cranbrook School, which has one of the highest fees in Sydney at $37,230 for year 12 this year, has an application fee of $300 and a non-refundable enrolment fee of $7275 to accept a place at the school.

    Knox Grammar School has an application fee of $380, while Sydney Grammar charges $253 and Newington College has a fee of $250.

  3. Dan Gulberry @ #549 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    Confessions @ #539 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:41 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #197 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:37 am

    Season 2 of The Handmaid’s Tale airs on SBS on Thursday night.

    Seriously?! How did SBS get it so fast after US? Usually we have to wait some time.

    By the same means that Netflix, Stan and even Foxtel can air shows within a couple of hours of them being shown in the US.

    Here in Vietnam you can see the HBO series like Game of Thrones at the same time as the US, which means mid-morning and then they replay it later in prime time.

    Shame I don’t have a TV, not!!! 🙂


  6. ✔
    @CatherineDeveny
    ANZAC Day. It’s Bogan Halloween.

    Well it’s definitely no longer a somber reflection on the horrors of war.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #553 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 12:20 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #549 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    Confessions @ #539 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:41 am

    Dan Gulberry @ #197 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:37 am

    Season 2 of The Handmaid’s Tale airs on SBS on Thursday night.

    Seriously?! How did SBS get it so fast after US? Usually we have to wait some time.

    By the same means that Netflix, Stan and even Foxtel can air shows within a couple of hours of them being shown in the US.

    Here in Vietnam you can see the HBO series like Game of Thrones at the same time as the US, which means mid-morning and then they replay it later in prime time.

    Shame I don’t have a TV, not!!! 🙂

    FoxTel did the same with GoT here as well. They found that if they waited to air it in the evening AU time, it had already hit the torrents and pirate sites, so they show it live, then repeat it at night. I don’t know about other HBO shows though.

  8. bemused @ #544 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 1:53 pm

    poroti @ #527 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    Ye God and little fishes ! Surely this is not for real ! A comment left at the Marr article
    .
    “Peter Dutton is speaking at the dawn service at Gallipoli.
    I. Just. Can’t. Express. Enough. Irritation.!!”

    My father fought in a war to defeat Fascism.
    Now one leads an ANZAC Day ceremony.
    I am glad my father did not live to see it.

    Bemused, have a look at the French Prime Minister’s speech I posted. You’ll be very moved. In French with English subtitles.

  11. Lizzie
    I used to drive buses and I can tell you that the private school kids were no better behaved on those buses than the public school kids.

  12. Why would people not want to see Abbott out and about and in the Parliament?

    Every times he shows up he highlights the division that rules in the coalition and what a weak and unprincipled PM Turnbull is.

    He is an asset for Labor.

  13. I saw the other night that in Finland there is no private schools.The rich kids and the poor kids go to the same school together.Academically their standards have lifted through the roof.

  14. Abbott is stalking Turnbull I’m sure.There he is at the Anzac event this morning shadowing Turnbull. Turnbull is with his mate Prince Charles again hoping to get a knighthood.

  16. steve davis

    I had a friend who was “house matron” at a private girls’ school in Vic. She said that the girls were all snobs and ‘bitches’ and spoilt rotten by parents. She herself was a very polite, well-spoken lady!

  17. steve davis says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 2:32 pm
    I saw the other night that in Finland there is no private schools.The rich kids and the poor kids go to the same school together.Academically their standards have lifted through the roof.

    There’s a lot more to it than that. Teachers are valued, respected, highly trained, and very well paid.

    Finland has scored very highly in educational outcomes for a long time, it is not a recent phenomenon.

    And the Finnish culture is different.

    Makes a difference.

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #465 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    I can certainly recommend Kevin Bonham’s analysis down the thread. it’s very good!
    I also could suggest PBers have a read of this piece which provides an overwhelming statistical analysis of why previous election preferences are a more reliable guide to 2PP outcomes with polls.

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/poll-roundup-what-is-going-on-with.html

    I also agree KB’s post is good. He also has some commentary on what is happening in the immigration debate …

    Issues polling this week had a strong focus on immigration issues. Essential found a marked increase in the level of concern about immigration compared to in 2016 (bearing in mind that Essential tends to show higher levels of concern compared to some other polls, as noted by the Scanlon Foundation (PDF)). Overall, Essential found 64% thinking there had been too much immigration in the last 10 years and only 5% too little. In Newspoll, 56% said Australia’s current target level was too high and 10% said it was too low.

    Essential also found the curious result that Greens supporters were a little less fussed about population growth than the major parties. Although the sample of Greens voters would be small and the differences hence not significant, it’s not that long ago that Greens supporters tended to be the first to argue strongly against population increase – especially in Australia which they argued to be a fragile continent – on environmental grounds. What has happened there within the green movement is that the old zero-growth or negative-growth approach has largely come to be seen as synonymous with low immigration and hence with anti-refugee attitudes. Supporting refugees is these days a strong marker of difference among Greens politicians and supporters so they’re nowhere near as likely to complain about population growth as they used to be.

    As others have pointed out, over the last few years the Greens have gradually been abandoning any pretence to being an ‘environmental’ party. This is clearly one of the reasons why they have been so internally divided recently.

    You would hope that one day that people would realize that being in favour of lower immigration is not synonymous with being a racist, or with opposing the resettling of genuine refugees.

  19. https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/2016/04/20/lest-we-forget-why-we-need-remember-frontier-wars

    Although not evident at the Australia War Memorial in Canberra, war was waged in these shores, on this soil. War began in the South East of the country, and spread slowly but surely across the rest of the continent.

    The Frontier Wars were ultimately fought for the possession of land and the exercise of sovereignty. One reason Australians find it difficult to acknowledge the war is because it goes to the very heart of the foundations of Australian sovereignty and ownership of this great land.

    Conveniently, in an effort to avoid those fundamental questions, the traditional historical narrative has played down the scale and extent of frontier warfare, at times denying that it took place altogether. Australia’s culture of forgetfulness has its roots in about the 1920’s or 1930’s, when writers on Australian history began arguing that this country was peacefully settled without the experience of war within its own borders.

  22. steve davis says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 2:42 pm
    Lizzie
    So called classless society we are supposed to be. My arse.

    _____________

    Who is saying we are a classless society? We have never been that, in our whole history.

  26. steve davis

    ” My arse.”

    In-bloody-deed and of the pig’s variety. Being established with the starkest of stark differentiation between classes,the Whippers and the Whippees, will have left quite a legacy in the cultural memory.

  27. ItzaDream @ #558 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:25 pm

    bemused @ #544 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 1:53 pm

    poroti @ #527 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    Ye God and little fishes ! Surely this is not for real ! A comment left at the Marr article
    .
    “Peter Dutton is speaking at the dawn service at Gallipoli.
    I. Just. Can’t. Express. Enough. Irritation.!!”

    My father fought in a war to defeat Fascism.
    Now one leads an ANZAC Day ceremony.
    I am glad my father did not live to see it.

    Bemused, have a look at the French Prime Minister’s speech I posted. You’ll be very moved. In French with English subtitles.

    Got it bookmarked to watch later.

  28. Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

  30. steve davis @ #561 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:29 pm

    Lizzie
    I used to drive buses and I can tell you that the private school kids were no better behaved on those buses than the public school kids.

    And quite reluctant to give up seats on public transport too.
    I ended up telling 2 girls to vacate a seat, designated for those with special needs, to allow a woman with a child in a pusher and another child a bit bigger to sit down.

  31. lizzie:

    Totally agree re the frontier wars.

    Prof M DavisVerified account@mdavisqlder
    4h4 hours ago

    We honour our elders & old people of the First Nations ravaged by the Frontier wars, the killing times. These stories were told during the historic constitutional dialogues of 2016/2017. These stories informed the Uluru consensus on truth telling: we must recognise these wars.

    :large

  32. In January 2018, the city of New York announced it would bring a lawsuit against five of the biggest oil companies on the planet to cover the expense of its $US20 billion ($26.2 billion) plan to protect the city, economy and public services from the effects of climate change. The city is still carrying the costs of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, in which 45 people died, and about $19 billion in damage was caused to homes, businesses and infrastructure. New York joins some of California’s biggest cities—and, in late April, two of Colorado’s biggest counties filed suits as well.

    This historic move came at the same time New York announced it would divest its vast pension fund investments away from fossil fuels. The $US198 billion fund holds about $US5billion in fossil fuel investments.

    This is a huge step in the fight for climate justice and fossil fuel companies around the globe are terrified of the precedent the case could set. Needless to day, around the world, other cities and regional governments are following suit or considering similar action from San Francisco and Los Angeles to Paris and London, legal compensation for the costs of climate change are becoming a serious consideration.

    Australian coal companies should expect a similar fate. Already we are seeing litigation in the Land and Environment Court. The tiny community group Wollar Progress Association is challenging Peabody’s Wilpinjong coal mine extension on the basis of the greenhouse gas emissions it would create downstream.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/fossil-fuel-industry-free-ride-pollution-mckibben-20180424-p4zbbl.html

  34. I might be wrong,but I think some of these kids are brought up to have a sense/right of entitlement because their parents have money.

  35. lizzie @ #556 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    It’s a no brainer to de-criminalise cannabis use yet Lib-Lab can’t see it.

  36. I wonder if Federal Government subsidies are simply pushing up the cost of “Private” schools in the same way that “First Home Buyers Grants”(in reality “Home Vendors’ Grants” push up home prices. Ditto the “Private” health insurance rebate.

  37. Confessions @ #581 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 11:54 am

    lizzie:

    Totally agree re the frontier wars.

    Prof M DavisVerified account@mdavisqlder
    4h4 hours ago

    We honour our elders & old people of the First Nations ravaged by the Frontier wars, the killing times. These stories were told during the historic constitutional dialogues of 2016/2017. These stories informed the Uluru consensus on truth telling: we must recognise these wars.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    I thought it was a reference to the Banking RC before I read it.

    It looks like something exploding out of a pigs arse.

    Me bad, sorry!

    Too many David Rowe cartoons. 🙂

  38. lizzie @ #578 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    Such a drug, already exists to treat all addictions and it is not cannabis which is a major drug of addiction. It is known as Ibogaine.

    What is the agenda of such people?

  39. Rex Douglas @ #585 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    lizzie @ #556 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    It’s a no brainer to de-criminalise cannabis use yet Lib-Lab can’t see it.

    I suppose I must defer to your expertise on ‘no brain’.

  41. Steve777 @ #586 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:01 pm

    I wonder if Federal Government subsidies are simply pushing up the cost of “Private” schools in the same way that “First Home Buyers Grants”(in reality “Home Vendors’ Grants” push up home prices. Ditto the “Private” health insurance rebate.

    They will not lower their fees as they need them as a barrier to keep out the riff-raff.

  42. bemused @ #589 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #585 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    lizzie @ #556 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    It’s a no brainer to de-criminalise cannabis use yet Lib-Lab can’t see it.

    I suppose I must defer to your expertise on ‘no brain’.

    It certainly reflects Rex’s lack of thought as he jumps from one brain fart to the next! 🙂

  43. I notice that Zoomster mentioned a ventriloquist in one of her posts this morning and coincidentally I had just finished reading about English ventriloquist Ray Alan, reputedly one of the best, if not THE best ventriloquist of all time. I had never heard of him before this week and I would be interested to know if anyone else here has ever heard of him before. He apparently never visited Australia and died in 2010.

    The following is a link to one of his skits on youtube and I have to say he is definitely the best I have ever seen. If you want a bit of a laugh on a quiet afternoon do yourself a favour and have a look at Ray Alan with his drunken friend Lord Charles.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3Zn3M-WMzM

  44. Rex Douglas @ #585 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    lizzie @ #556 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    It’s a no brainer to de-criminalise cannabis use yet Lib-Lab can’t see it.

    And the sales of prescription opioids fall in US states that have decriminalised it.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/04/02/598787768/opioid-use-lower-in-states-that-eased-marijuana-laws

    And there’s a few billion in revenue once the govt becomes the dealer.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/3-5-billion-budget-boost-from-legalising-marijuana-costing-shows-20180419-p4zaj2.html

    Alex Wodak takes a look at the snail’s pace of drug reform, noting there has been some slow progress.

    http://johnmenadue.com/alex-wodak-why-is-the-drug-policy-debate-in-australia-stuck/

  46. Barney in Go Dau @ #592 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    bemused @ #589 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #585 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    lizzie @ #556 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    It’s a no brainer to de-criminalise cannabis use yet Lib-Lab can’t see it.

    I suppose I must defer to your expertise on ‘no brain’.

    It certainly reflects Rex’s lack of thought as he jumps from one brain fart to the next! 🙂

    Yes, they just rattle around in the hollow of his head until finally emerging to immediate ridicule.

  47. What don said.

    The cultures of the education systems which ‘outscore’ ours internationally are vastly different. There’s little commonality between the educational programs of Finland and Japan, for example.

    What they do have in common is that teachers are treated with respect (which isn’t the same as being well paid; Finnish teachers aren’t particularly) and education is seen as important.

  48. lizzie @ #42987 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 2:50 pm

    Interesting…

    Denise Shrivell‏ @deniseshrivell · 9h9 hours ago

    Doctor on CNN just now ‘if you were to go into a Lab & design a drug to solve opioid addiction it might look like cannabis’ #auspol No wonder big pharma doesn’t like it – & they donate to politicians who therefore don’t like it either

    This is bullshit. Cannabinoid receptors CB1 & CB2 have nothing to do with opioids – they subtend entirely different peripheral and central sensory modulation systems (called endocannabinoids).

    I recently attended the Australian Pain Society meeting where the pharmacology of cannabinoids was extensively reviewed. None of the more than 100 phytocannabinoids (including THC, CBD and varied combinations) studied in the world literature have any significant reproducible effects on acute or chronic pain in human or animal studies at tolerable therapeutic index ranges (the ratio of desirable to adverse effects). As therapeutic agents in pain, anorexia and palliative symptom control all extant cannabinoids are no better than placebo, and have many adverse and nocebo effects. There is some evidence for the effective use of both phytocannabinoids and synthetic cannabinoids (which have been extensively studied by both big Pharma and a lot of academic and independent groups) in some (rare) forms of epilepsy where there may be CB1&2 receptor abnormality, but none of the other benefits (and benignity) claimed have ever been demonstrated with anything like the rigor required to use in medical practice. Because of the biology of the cannabinoids, I doubt that it ever will.

    By all means decriminalise use of cannabinoids for legal and social reasons – just don’t try to justify it on medical grounds.

  49. …I once taught at a public school with the lowest level of disadvantage in the state.

    The parents were either wealthy tradies or highly educated professionals.

    The result was a mix of students, some of whom were going straight into the family business or who had the attitude that their parents had done OK without education, so why did they need it, and the rest who had been brought up to believe that a good education was crucially important.

  50. steve davis @ #595 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:16 pm

    My point is the so called riff-raff are generally no worse behaved kids than the privates,parents just dont get it.

    Oh yes, I agree totally, in fact mostly better behaved. But they are just not from the ‘right’ type of families.
    One of my sons attended the local state HS and they had a kid transfer in from Wesley.
    He was of Vietnamese background and blind. He had been adopted by an Australian family who wanted to do the best they could for him by sending him to Wesley.

    At Wesley, he had been bullied and not treated at all well. At his new State High School he was well treated by his peers who tended to look after him and he became quite popular and well liked.
    If I hadn’t already had the understanding, that example would certainly have taught me.

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