BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Coalition may have had a promising two-party result from Newspoll, but this week’s two polls recorded no real change on the primary vote.

In a week in which Newspoll’s One Nation preference allocations have roused discussion, I’ve decided to get a piece of the action in BludgerTrack. My recent method for One Nation preferences, for which the 2016 preference flow offers an unsatisfactory guide, has involved extracting a trend from respondent-allocated two-party results from Ipsos and ReachTEL. But the very strong preference flow to the Coalition from Ipsos three weeks ago, combined with the lack of any such new data since, seems to have caused the trend measure to overshoot in the past week or two. So pending a rethink, I have reset the One Nation preference flow to 60-40, which is basically an estimate drawn from the recent Queensland and Western Australian elections. Having rerun it on this basis, you will now find BludgerTrack reporting a 52.1-47.9 lead to Labor, where for a few days there it was at 51.5-48.5. This reflects the stability of Newspoll and Essential Research on the primary vote this week, notwithstanding Newspoll’s outwardly encouraging two-party result for the Coalition.

Labor is up two on the seat projection, gaining one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, but losing one in Victoria. Newspoll’s stronger personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull have had little influence on his trend result, which had already been elevated by Ipsos, and he’s actually lost a small amount of ground on preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Certain stories have always had resonance and since the emergence from the supposed ‘dark ages’ those same stories have been repeated and repeated. Writers saw it as their duty to retell those stories and Shakespeare was no different.

    Which is one reason I really enjoy reading Rushdie.

  2. Agree with the last three post Jen and LU.

    The skill is in the story telling and also in linking the story to the modern world or at least making it relevant.

    Jen. Yes the feudal theme is sort of what defines fantasy. Other formats we consider science fiction or historical fiction etc.This is even true of Tolkien.

  3. I think Shakespeare’s works are mainly about the human condition and were written to please both the author and the hearer at many levels. For mine, to look into his work has been to have the chance to learn. Since this makes me happy in itself – and works with my kind of curiosity – I can think of no rival. Perhaps the Iliad surpasses everything.

    But of course, we all have different ways of learning. Many are not verbal learners. For them Shakespeare could seem totally inscrutable.

    For a while – about 10 years ago – through an illness I really lost my verbal skills. I could no more read and well comprehend a sonnet than sign my own name with much confidence. So I know what it is to baffled by text.

    A good part of the restoration of my capacity is due to music. I have to listen to music as often as I can. It educates me – illuminates and comforts and re-calibrates me. There I can also find expression of the human condition and mathematics put together. There is a lot of music in language. I think reading goes easier when the rhythms and the aural properties can be found. Naturally, Shakespeare’s work is richly musical, which is one of the tools of its lucidity.

  4. The Business Council are looking to raise $26 million from its members to run its own political campaigning at the next election.

    Maybe their themes could be ;

    Why our rape and pillage of the Australian Society is good for you!

    Minimising company taxes and how that contributes to a fairer and more equal Australia!

    Redundancies! Allowing you to spend more time with your kids!

  5. finland

    income tax 50%
    VAT 25% although some goods including transport at lower rates of 10 or 15
    company 20% flat
    average income – about same as australia although some disparities- doctors on average income


  6. A week or so ago I was lamenting on this site about the difficulty I was having getting money out of an AMP super policy.

    Eventually I got it out by transferring the money into an industry super fund. The Industry Fund helped tremendously in that regard.

    We heard in the news of the suffering of AMP shareholders as a result of a drop in their share price (oh dear, how sad for you benefactors of the proceeds of crime), but we haven’t yet heard how many millions have been rolled over out of or withdrawn from AMP super funds.

    Would make interesting reading, though I suspect those trying to withdraw funds directly will be left whistling for their money for a long time.

  7. my best go at education policy – left/progressive/patriotic

    all schools local
    education in all funded schools conducted by dept of ed including staffing, discipline, goals, parent relations, and maintenance
    govt under no obligation to purchase private schools – they can continued to run as funded state schools
    private/church schools free to run extra curricular activities and religious ed outside normal school hours
    otherwise no private schooling
    current private school free to sell property or use it for non secondary education
    if cluster of schools result govt students drawn from larger area through random selection
    no principle of selective govt schools
    principles of pioneering govt education bills in NSW 1871 “free secular universal” fulfilled
    watch education standards rise
    all school equal and good
    sounds radical but only solution
    only one in line with proper new constitution separating church and state

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