In a week in which Newspoll’s One Nation preference allocations have roused discussion, I’ve decided to get a piece of the action in BludgerTrack. My recent method for One Nation preferences, for which the 2016 preference flow offers an unsatisfactory guide, has involved extracting a trend from respondent-allocated two-party results from Ipsos and ReachTEL. But the very strong preference flow to the Coalition from Ipsos three weeks ago, combined with the lack of any such new data since, seems to have caused the trend measure to overshoot in the past week or two. So pending a rethink, I have reset the One Nation preference flow to 60-40, which is basically an estimate drawn from the recent Queensland and Western Australian elections. Having rerun it on this basis, you will now find BludgerTrack reporting a 52.1-47.9 lead to Labor, where for a few days there it was at 51.5-48.5. This reflects the stability of Newspoll and Essential Research on the primary vote this week, notwithstanding Newspoll’s outwardly encouraging two-party result for the Coalition.
Labor is up two on the seat projection, gaining one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, but losing one in Victoria. Newspoll’s stronger personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull have had little influence on his trend result, which had already been elevated by Ipsos, and he’s actually lost a small amount of ground on preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.