BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Coalition may have had a promising two-party result from Newspoll, but this week’s two polls recorded no real change on the primary vote.

In a week in which Newspoll’s One Nation preference allocations have roused discussion, I’ve decided to get a piece of the action in BludgerTrack. My recent method for One Nation preferences, for which the 2016 preference flow offers an unsatisfactory guide, has involved extracting a trend from respondent-allocated two-party results from Ipsos and ReachTEL. But the very strong preference flow to the Coalition from Ipsos three weeks ago, combined with the lack of any such new data since, seems to have caused the trend measure to overshoot in the past week or two. So pending a rethink, I have reset the One Nation preference flow to 60-40, which is basically an estimate drawn from the recent Queensland and Western Australian elections. Having rerun it on this basis, you will now find BludgerTrack reporting a 52.1-47.9 lead to Labor, where for a few days there it was at 51.5-48.5. This reflects the stability of Newspoll and Essential Research on the primary vote this week, notwithstanding Newspoll’s outwardly encouraging two-party result for the Coalition.

Labor is up two on the seat projection, gaining one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, but losing one in Victoria. Newspoll’s stronger personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull have had little influence on his trend result, which had already been elevated by Ipsos, and he’s actually lost a small amount of ground on preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 28
1 2 28
  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And now to get ready for another Bunnings sausage sizzle day.

    Prof. Dick Bryan tells us that the banking and finance royal commission has cast light on a new type of poverty to emerge in our society: middle class poverty.
    Sarah Dancert was at the royal commission yesterday to see the “spiv on a spit” show.
    Karen Maley begins her contribution with “The Hayne royal commission was given a blood-curdling, indeed “Orwellian”, vision of what the financial planning sector could look like if the four big banks and AMP were to vacate the space leaving hapless consumers in the hands of much savvier players.
    And it was another uncomfortable day for the Financial Planning Association at the commission too.
    The Greens have written to request the auditor general investigate the declaration of interest and conflict of interest policies of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
    The federal government has created a “false economy” by restoring the budget bottom line through cuts to the disability support pension and potentially pushing more people into homelessness, a leading economist has said.
    The representation of female and younger barristers appearing at the royal commission is challenging the perception barristers are “old white men wearing wigs”. We have seen some brilliant examples of this.
    Now Bill Cosby really DOES know about going down!
    Katharine Murphy writes about the altercation between Frydenberg and The Parrot.
    Peter Martin was unimpressed with Morrison’s announcement yesterday.
    David Crowe writes that all the Coalition has going for it may be in minimising family taxation levels.
    Madonna King poses some questions to the types that have been fronting the royal commission.
    Peter Martin explains what Morrison might do with income tax.
    Trump seems to call himself a liar over the Trump/Cohen/Stormy connection.
    Trump will be visiting London on 13 July. No doubt he will receive a “warm” welcome.
    Tony Featherstone explains the effect of the high level of temporary population growth and how it is not being fully recognised when it comes to infrastructure planning.
    The SMH editorial looks for some positives out of the Chines ban on taking our recycling waste.
    The former commissioner of the Australian Border Force, Roman Quaedvlieg, has said on Twitter that medical transfers from Nauru were a “vexed” issue for the ABF, which has the ultimate authority to move people to care.
    Another nasty side to the bikers fraternity.
    Michelle Grattan says that Banning soldiers displaying death symbols is about the right military mindset, not political correctness. I saw one minute of the idiot pair Rowan Dean and Ross Cameron rabbiting on with an entirely contrary view before I had to turn them off last night.
    Dave Donovan tells us that it is right that we pay our respects to the fallen on Anzac Day — but that doesn’t mean we should forget about everything else.,11437
    I had never heard of the term “incel” before the Toronto van rampage. It’s a bit of a worry with the types it is attracting.
    Sally McManus is about to call for the Fair Work Commission to be given stronger powers to redress underpayment of wages, compulsorily arbitrate disputes and require head contractors and franchisors to appear before the tribunal.
    Harold Mitchell says that if we want to grow, we had better learn how to solve the problem of acceptance of recent arrivals.
    This is a quite good contribution from Richo on both Turnbull and Shorten and their paths to the election.
    Phil Coorey says both the government and the opposition have money to spend on pre-election packages. But no-one is taking about rising debt.
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that oil and gas giants will be forced to pay billions more in tax under changes to the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax that could also deliver the Turnbull government a shock victory on its stalled company tax cuts. It’s worth having a look at the chart on effective corporate tax rates which continue to be subjugated in the debate.
    The Australian’s Simon Benson has been sucked in on the negative gearing debate by the focus on people’s TAXABLE income.
    Kristina Keneally is leading Labor assault on the Business Council of Australia.
    Tim Stanley posits that social media is a public health emergency.
    Telstra has been ordered to pay a $10 million penalty after its billing charges potentially misled more than 100,000 Australians.
    Here’s our Mehajer fix for the day.
    Ford Australia deserves every bit of pain and opprobrium it receives over this disgusting effort.
    Is this wishful thinking by Coles?

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and Morrison the miracle maker.
    Peter Broelman outside the royal commission.
    Paul Zanetti and Harry Harris.
    Cathy Wilcox and some frantic bankers.
    Sean Leahy rebrands Ford.
    Jon Kudelka with a happy clapper funding miracle.
    David Pope calls Groundhog Day on NDIS funding.
    More good ones in here.

  2. Yet more proof of the unchanging poll landscape – Labor ahead around 52-48, with primary vote shares in the high 30s. It really is extraordinary just how stable the polling has been.

    I’d rate Labor about a 75% chance of winning government at the next election: still by far the most likely outcome, but not a foregone conclusion at this stage. Queensland offers the ALP the biggest swag of potential seat gains, but it doesn’t look to be swinging especially greatly, which should give the government some hope. However, Labor only needs to win around 5-6 seats (before the redistributions) to take office – this should be a straightforward ask for an Opposition facing a two-term government with little political capital left.

  3. Trump just gave a batsh*t crazy Fox News interview — here are the 6 most bonkers moments

    President Donald Trump on Thursday called in to “Fox & Friends” for an interview — and things went completely off the rails right from the beginning.

    During the interview, Trump spent most of the time angrily ranting about people who have treated him unfairly while also making potentially damning admissions that could harm his own attorney, Michael Cohen.

    Below are the six most bonkers moments of Trump’s interview with “Fox & Friends.”

    1.) Trump said he decided to call into Fox News as a gift to first lady Melania Trump for her birthday
    2)Trump ranted about Senate Democrats obstructing his nominees after Ronny Jackson, his pick to be secretary of Veterans Affairs, withdrew his name
    3.) Trump admits he stayed overnight in Moscow during the 2013 Miss Universe pageant.
    4.) Trump throws his own lawyer, Michael Cohen, under the bus
    5.) Even Fox News host Brian Kilmeade tells Trump to not watch so much cable news
    6.) Trump went on a nonsensical rant about the Department of Justice being against him.

  4. Feds pounce on Trump’s crazed ‘Fox & Friends’ rant — and use it against him in Michael Cohen case

    Lawyers for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York on Thursday used President Donald Trump’s early-morning rant on “Fox & Friends” to undercut claims being made by attorneys representing his longtime attorney, Michael Cohen.

    As documented by legal reporter Mike Scarcella, SDNY lawyers specifically cited Trump’s “Fox & Friends” interview in a new filing to argue that most of the records seized in the FBI raid of Cohen’s office are not subject to attorney-client privilege.

  5. By the way, thanks for the news service, BK, it really is a great little round-up, one I scan most days to get an overview of the day’s news.

  6. ‘Thank you, Fox & Friends’: Attorney Michael Avenatti gloats after Trump stumbles through legal minefield on live TV

    In an ongoing rant on Fox News Thursday morning, President Trump shared conflicting information on the Russia investigation, his victory over Hillary Clinton, and his alleged affair with porn star Stormy Daniels.

    Daniel’s lawyer Michael Avenatti said Trump’s interview gave him all the ammo he needed to close his case.

    In an interview with CNN’s John Berman, Avenatti said: “Well, this case gets better every day, every hour, and one of the reasons why it gets better is that they step in to every trap we lay. Fox and Friends, I want to thank you.”

  7. Attorney Michael Avenatti hints $1.6 million abortion payout was for Trump — not GOP donor

    The lawyer for porn actress Stormy Daniels suggested that a $1.6 million hush money payoff to a Playboy model was actually made on behalf of President Donald Trump — and not a Republican donor.

    Attorney Michael Avenatti appeared Thursday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” where he gave a wide-ranging interview on the lawsuit against the president and a related criminal investigation of Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen — and he said reporting on the case had missed an important detail.

    Cohen negotiated a $1.6 million hush money payment to a Playboy model who became pregnant during an affair and then had an abortion.

    “I think at some point we are going to find out, if in fact, the client in connection with the ($1.6 million) settlement was, in fact, Mr. Broidy. I’m going to leave it at that.”

    Avenatti wouldn’t say it, but the implication seems clear.

  8. Morning all. Thanks BK. Like you I hd nott heard of “incels” before. They sound like creeepy losers women are wise to avoid. I had wondered before about the gender balance of victims in several US mass shootis and this confirms my fears.

  9. BTW while I hhave been pleased to see the RC take down banks, AMP and the FPA, I remain dissapointed there is no mention of the AFP. While busily doing their political masters bidding, the AFP have badly failed to police money laundering and fraud. They are clearly crimes the AFP are responsible for policing. Check their own website, which boasts of 4(!) convictions. Why are they and Dutton not answering questions? See

  10. Sprocket_
    It’s going to be a perfect day for the sizzle. Sunny and 20 deg. And it’s the last day of school holidays so there will be plenty of kids to work over on the way in so they can pester their parents to buy them a snag on the way out!

  11. Clay Lucas‏Verified account @ClayLucas

    Lord mayoral candidate Gary Morgan has just promised, at a @MelbPressClub lunch, to exhume 6000 corpses at the Queen Vic Market and DNA test them so they can be “returned to their families”, and underground parking can then be built.

  12. Trump’s Legal Problems Get Worse As He Admits He’s A Liar

    In a telephone interview with Fox News on Thursday morning, President Donald Trump revealed for the first time that he did indeed know about his lawyer Michael Cohen’s payment of $130,000 to Stormy Daniels.

    Daniels’s attorney, Michael Avenatti, weighed in a few minutes later on MSNBC and said that Trump had made a “hugely damaging admission.” Avenatti appeared this morning on the popular MSNBC show “Morning Joe” and said that Trump’s comment about Cohen is a “gift from the heavens” and he wanted to “send a shout out to Fox & Friends.” Avenatti also tweeted about Trump’s interview, saying that the revelations were, “Very informative.”

    This proves beyond a reasonable doubt that Donald Trump is a liar.

  13. I saw a panel on SKY soon after the alleged push, where Mirabella appealed to MacGowan to say that she hadn’t been pushed. Although MacGowan refused to confirm or deny (she went into one of her ‘we should be our best selves’ homilies) her reaction made it pretty clear she thought she had been pushed and was astonished Mirabella expected her to deny that.

    My own take is that Mirabella was so determined to get the Minister first and genuinely didn’t see MacGowan (SM has poor sight in one eye).

    This happened, however, at a function mainly attended by Liberals, so there won’t be many witnesses against SM.

  14. Socrates

    The emergence of “incels” is somehow incredibly sad. Probably they were always there but a combination of social mechanisms kept them in control. War occupied many, arranged marriages and possibly greater tolerance of rape and sexual abuse may have provided an easier outlet for these sad, mad guys. Smaller communities too probably helped – people knew who they were and kept control, plus there would have been pressure on unmarried girls to wed them. I guess the prevalence of sexual fantasy in just about every movie and TV show also just keeps lack of action in the front of these guys minds.

    They are if you like the proverbial “losers” starting from high school or earlier. I think is a way the Port Arthur killer was one such.

  15. I can’t think of anything funnier than the libs promising tax cuts which won’t start until TWO governments from now. Unbelievably ridiculous. AND they are now going ahead with the $80 billion coy tax cuts. It shows what a total mess they are in.

  16. Murdoch once again repeats the old lie that negative gearing is primarily done by people on low to middle incomes. The key of course is the phrase “taxable income” where high income earners artificially create a lower taxable income, often through negative gearing deductions.

    Real target of Labor’s investor hit revealed
    New data shows two-thirds of investors who negatively geared property were on taxable incomes of less than $80,000 a year.

  17. The makers of underwater paint will receive a bonanza from this one:

    BUDGET 2018
    PM’s pitch to save seats
    EXCLUSIVE | Coalition to unveil a $400m package for the Great Barrier Reef as Malcolm Turnbull seeks to sandbag Queensland marginal seats. (Oz headline)

  18. 😆

    Stars spun into existence in the deep womb of the sky and burned out again, and planets rose and set, and at the end of the last age of men the great wolf Fenris rose from the deep and swallowed the Earth — and Donald Trump was still on the phone with “Fox & Friends” after calling in with a lot of opinions he wanted to share, against the best legal advice, and also probably the advice of his lawyers.

    The leader of the free world, a man who could order the launch of nuclear weapons, who has been signaling he wants to pull out of the Iran deal, whose travel ban is before the Supreme Court, spent half an hour ranting to Fox & Friends about his television viewing habits. The three hosts’ smiles and laughter grew increasingly strained as it became slowly apparent that the president would not get off the line unless forcibly removed, that maybe the president did not realize he had anything better to do, that the president would have to be reminded by the hosts of Fox and Friends that He Surely Had A Busy Schedule And A Lot Going On.

  19. ACTU ramping up the pressure on Turnbull:

    Unions want the Fair Work Commission to be given new powers to award compensation for underpayment of wages, saying Australia needs a “tough cop” to battle wage theft.

    The Australian Council of Trade Unions secretary, Sally McManus, will outline the latest tranche of union demands, including more power to lift minimum wages and award conditions, in a speech to the Per Capita thinktank on Friday.

  20. Maggie HabermanVerified account@maggieNYT
    9h9 hours ago

    Trump aides fought for months to keep him from doing what he did this morning/the thing that makes him happiest – just calling Fox and Friends and talking as if it was one of his private conversations.

    Clearly they need to confiscate his phone during ‘executive time’.

  21. Confessions says: Friday, April 27, 2018 at 9:03 am

    Maggie HabermanVerified account@maggieNYT
    9h9 hours ago

    Trump aides fought for months to keep him from doing what he did this morning/the thing that makes him happiest – just calling Fox and Friends and talking as if it was one of his private conversations.

    Clearly they need to confiscate his phone during ‘executive time’.


    This reported ‘bat shit crazy” Fox & Friends” interview with Trump was the perfect evidence for why the president’s lawyers refuse to let him speak to special counsel Robert Mueller.

  22. “New data shows two-thirds of investors who negatively geared property were on taxable incomes of less than $80,000 a year.”

    So, maybe we should just restrict negative gearing to individual taxpayers (not companies) whose taxable income, before taking account of negative gearing and other other shelters, and who are the real earners of the income, not their partner or child, and counting money from family trusts and the like as income, is $79,999 or less.

  23. The Australian ›
    Balls should be pressed into serving the cause of peace.

    Despite this downgrade, the RSPCB is booming. The cruel sandpapering of that cricket ball brought a flood of new members and donations. Whilst that well-known advocate of tolerance Alan Jones used Easter to suggest the sandpaperer and his colleagues were crucified, others saw the attack on the innocent projectile as the central issue.


    For those with a passion for confusion/delusion this delightful offering has some entertaining gems.
    One Nation’s Pauline Hanson furious online citizenship poll being shared overseas

    Rainy day in Newcastle has put my plans for mowing, weeding and house pressure spraying on hold.
    I remain stout hearted as I fall back on emergency reading, laying about and doing not much at all.


  24. New data? The Coalition have been banging on about the ‘people who dodge tax don’t pay much tax’ line for a long time.

  25. In other vitally important news –

    World wine output falls to 60-year low
    Reuters Staff

    PARIS (Reuters) – Global wine output fell to its lowest level in 60 years in 2017 due to poor weather conditions in the European Union that slashed production in the bloc, international wine organisation OIV said.

    Wine production totaled 250 million hectoliters last year, down 8.6 percent from 2016, data from the Paris-based International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) released on Tuesday showed.

    It is the lowest level since 1957, when it had fallen to 173.8 million hectoliters, the OIV told Reuters.

    A hectoliter represents 100 liters, or the equivalent of just over 133 standard 75 cl wine bottles.

    The French government said last year production had hit a record low due to a series of poor weather conditions including spring frosts, drought and storms that affected most of the main growing regions including Bordeaux and Champagne.

    In contrast, production remained nearly stable in the United States, the world’s fourth largest producer, and China, which has become the world’s seventh largest wine producer behind Australia and Argentina.

  26. phoenixRed:

    Like I said last night, he’s like that arrogant general in A Few Good Men just waiting for an opportunity to unleash, bragging to all and sundry about his achievements and exploits.

  27. John Schindlers latest column :

    Kremlingate Is Really Just Watergate for Morons—With Russians

    What, then, can we say about Trump and the Kremlin? To anyone versed in counterintelligence, particularly involving Russians, Trump seems to have been an on-again, off-again agent of influence for Russian intelligence for at least three decades. We can assume that Kremlin spies long ago took the measure of him and realized he was an erratic figure who could be useful to Moscow, if kept at arm’s length. His desire to run for the presidency was likely deemed useful for Putin and his retinue, but they surely considered it as unlikely to succeed as everyone else did. Donald Trump’s poetic undoing will be his unplanned winning of the White House. That unanticipated victory is bringing him the deep scrutiny by federal authorities that Trump and his flimflam business empire long needed, but never got. Moscow, too, will likely rue the day that they secretly helped get their man in the Oval Office.

  28. KayJay @ #33 Friday, April 27th, 2018 – 6:09 am

    For those with a passion for confusion/delusion this delightful offering has some entertaining gems.
    One Nation’s Pauline Hanson furious online citizenship poll being shared overseas

    Rainy day in Newcastle has put my plans for mowing, weeding and house pressure spraying on hold.
    I remain stout hearted as I fall back on emergency reading, laying about and doing not much at all.


    Hanson, MacDonald and Monkeys, sums the whole article up nicely!!

    Enjoy the rain!

    The Wet Season’s starting here too! 🙂

  29. Good Morning

    Background Briefing on the ABC is doing a two part special on the Murray Darling Basin plan.

    Apparently $3Billion wasted for no environmental outcomes. Thats legally not about illegal practices.

  30. PhoenixRed

    A good piece by Schindler.
    Although he makes no mention of the Stormy Daniels saga.
    It could actually be this that ultimately brings down the Trumpster. Quite ironic

  31. Bruno J. NavarroVerified account@Bruno_J_Navarro

    Manhattan federal prosecutors seized as many as 16 cell phones when the FBI raided the home, office and hotel room of Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen.

    Who has 16 mobile phones?!

  32. Fess

    Trump’s behaviour is going to get even more erratic. I thought the last few months were Cray cray. May is going to be a doozy

  33. ACT is zooming into the future by pledging that all new government cars will be electric! And it gets better: they’re looking into solar-powered charging stations in car parks. #Repower #solar

Comments Page 1 of 28
1 2 28

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *