BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Coalition may have had a promising two-party result from Newspoll, but this week’s two polls recorded no real change on the primary vote.

In a week in which Newspoll’s One Nation preference allocations have roused discussion, I’ve decided to get a piece of the action in BludgerTrack. My recent method for One Nation preferences, for which the 2016 preference flow offers an unsatisfactory guide, has involved extracting a trend from respondent-allocated two-party results from Ipsos and ReachTEL. But the very strong preference flow to the Coalition from Ipsos three weeks ago, combined with the lack of any such new data since, seems to have caused the trend measure to overshoot in the past week or two. So pending a rethink, I have reset the One Nation preference flow to 60-40, which is basically an estimate drawn from the recent Queensland and Western Australian elections. Having rerun it on this basis, you will now find BludgerTrack reporting a 52.1-47.9 lead to Labor, where for a few days there it was at 51.5-48.5. This reflects the stability of Newspoll and Essential Research on the primary vote this week, notwithstanding Newspoll’s outwardly encouraging two-party result for the Coalition.

Labor is up two on the seat projection, gaining one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, but losing one in Victoria. Newspoll’s stronger personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull have had little influence on his trend result, which had already been elevated by Ipsos, and he’s actually lost a small amount of ground on preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Minister for the Environment and Energy @JoshFrydenberg will deliver opening remarks at the Meeting of Environment Ministers, 10:15am, Melbourne #auspol

  2. Victoria says: Friday, April 27, 2018 at 9:34 am

    PhoenixRed

    A good piece by Schindler.

    Although he makes no mention of the Stormy Daniels saga.
    It could actually be this that ultimately brings down the Trumpster. Quite ironic

    **************************************************

    Yes Victoria – totally agree – anyone interested in Trump and his dodgy empire and possible Russian interference – John Schindler lays it all out in a blistering piece by piece analysis

    http://observer.com/2018/04/mueller-investigating-trumps-ties-to-russia-is-watergate-for-morons/

    There are many reports that the Fox & Friends interview just blew up in Trumps face and Stormy Daniels lawyer, Michael Avenattii in particular is over the moon and says that Trumps confessional words will finish him off …..

  3. As predicted yesterday Mal has lobbed in Perth beating gifts

    https://thewest.com.au/news/transport/perth-train-commuters-to-benefit-from-2b-federal-government-funding-ng-b88817781z

    Totally unsurprised the the spend is largely on projects designed to be of benefit to people in Perth’s northern ring, benefitting the seats of Pearce, Halsuck and Moore. Canning also gets some.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/transport/perth-train-commuters-to-benefit-from-2b-federal-government-funding-ng-b88817781z

    More surprising is $500m for projects around Bunbury in the seat of Forrest. If the Tories feel the need to spend up there things really must be dire.

  4. Fess

    Lol! The poor folk at fox and friends could see the great big fail by them to help Trump get himself out of his own crap!

    PhoenixRed

    Trump doesn’t know how to get himself out of this mess. Nothing he says or does is working. As I keep thinking, impaired mental capacity is what he will ultimately go with!

  5. I’m wondering whether the coalition will call an election for after the budget in order to attempt to prevent ALP winning in a landslide in the hope they’ll regain power 3 years afterward. Not so much save the furniture as ‘what can we achieve in 2021?’

    This would be just the kind of skewed thinking the likes of Kroger and others would adopt. Cauterise the wound and come back with someone like Dutts in 3 years.

  6. CNN panel mocks Trump’s unhinged Fox & Friends interview: ‘You could almost picture him red in the face’

    President Donald Trump called into Fox News’s morning show “Fox & Friends” Thursday and the interview went completely off the rails quickly. In their afternoon commentary, Wolf Blitzer’s political panel couldn’t help but note that Trump seemed like he was spitting fire straight into the phone.

    “That we just heard from the president — never mind that the president of the United States just called in a cable news show he likes to watch for 30 minutes, OK ?

    “And that was the sort of the theme and the thing that we heard from him throughout most of the phone call,” she continued. “That is not a president when you’re talking about the person who America and people around the world look to for leadership and calm and sort of control. That is not the kind of M.O. that generally a president wants to give off.”

    Commentator Nia-Malika Henderson explained that the behavior is a glimpse into what the president is like at night when he is calling friends and venting about the commentary and punditry throughout the day.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/cnn-panel-mocks-trumps-unhinged-fox-friends-interview-almost-picture-red-face/

  7. Also for once I agree with Pauline Hanson.

    Apparently the Parliamentary committee has commissioned Survey Monkey to do a poll on her bill.

    Lots of submissions from Brazil The Middle East and other parts of the world. No verification to prevent multiple voting.

    Chairman Ian McDonald has said he is not reversing course on the poll.

    It was put out in an attempt to minimise submissions because and I quote “Its too much work”

    Edit: Its about Hanson’s Bill to make Migrants have longer waiting times to achieve citizenship I think.

  8. State Victoria go to the polls in November. Anything the feds do to call an early election will need to take this into account.

  9. Meanwhile something that may be of importance in this Trump saga for those following, is The Federalist publication.
    Megan McCain (daughter of John) Husband runs the publication.
    Questions are being asked as to who funds it. No answers have been forthcoming.
    Rumour now is Erik Prince (Blackwater fame, brother of Betty DeVos cabinet member and Amway, Health Spectrum owner) pays for it.
    Could be important

    http://thefederalist.com

  10. The banks behaviour stinks.
    Look at the ppty market, Banks gives out exhorbitant
    Loans and ppty prices skyrocket. Now they tighten their lending and market stagnants. Meanwhile people who have already taken out huge loans to pay for overpriced ppty have a lifetime of slog to service same. Really stinks

  11. “There’s no requirement for politicians to tell the truth, no Australian Consumer and Competition Commission vetting for misleading conduct or outright lies.”

    If there were an obligation Question Time would look like a Marcel Marceau convention.

  12. guytaur @ #60 Friday, April 27th, 2018 – 6:53 am

    Also for once I agree with Pauline Hanson.

    Apparently the Parliamentary committee has commissioned Survey Monkey to do a poll on her bill.

    Lots of submissions from Brazil The Middle East and other parts of the world. No verification to prevent multiple voting.

    Chairman Ian McDonald has said he is not reversing course on the poll.

    It was put out in an attempt to minimise submissions because and I quote “Its too much work”

    It’s a ridiculous idea in the first place, how anyone thought this was a valid way to run an enquiry is beyond me.

    If anything, the only good thing about it is that the people the proposal would effect, potential immigrants, are able to make some contribution.

    This is what Hansen is complaining about.
    🙂

  13. You can’t make this shit up

    Conversation
    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    So did every prosecutor on Mueller’s team and the SDNY.

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    Loved being on @foxandfriends this morning. Great show!

  14. Barney

    I agree about the potential contributions by immigrants. However McDonald made clear that it was all about reducing submissions not paying attention to the results of online polling

  15. Greensborough Growler @ #37 Friday, April 27th, 2018 – 9:14 am

    Oh, my goodness! When Fox can’t walk Trump back from the ledge, then there is no hoope for his presidency!

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    The three appear to be trying to get the matter transmitter to work. (Beam me up —–).

    The lady seems to have a leg missing – and from the blank faces – well your guess is probably better than mine. 😮

  16. Donald Trump Was Too Busy Tweeting At Kanye West To Get Melania A Birthday Gift

    President Donald Trump said Thursday he was too busy to buy his wife Melania Trump a 48th birthday gift, a day after he enjoyed an extended Twitter lovefest with rapper Kanye West.

    In a telephone interview with “Fox & Friends,” Trump claimed he’d decided to call in to the show because it was his wife’s birthday. “I picked a very, very special day because it’s Melania’s birthday so I said, let’s do it on Melania’s birthday,” he said. “So happy birthday to Melania.”

    (((Dan Sloan))) @dantoujours

    Boy, if that Fox & Friends interview was Melania’s birthday present, no wonder she never smiles around him.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/donald-trump-melania-trump-birthday-gift_us_5ae1d437e4b04aa23f2046cb

  17. guytaur @ #70 Friday, April 27th, 2018 – 7:12 am

    Barney

    I agree about the potential contributions by immigrants. However McDonald made clear that it was all about reducing submissions not paying attention to the results of online polling

    And as I have implied from the beginning it’s a ridiculous idea, full stop!

  18. ‘Please’: Michael Avenatti Begs Trump To Go On Fox & Friends More Often

    Stormy Daniels attorney Michael Avenatti was basking in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s utterly disastrous interview on Fox & Friends on Thursday.

    In an interview with MSNBC’s Ari Melber, Avenatti turned to the camera and urged the president to continue killing his own legal defense by appearing on the Fox News program every morning.

    Avenatti said, “Every time he goes on Fox & Friends he makes a statement that helps us out.”

    Fox & Friends might be Donald Trump’s favorite TV show, but it did him no favors on Thursday. It was an absolute trainwreck – and Michael Avenatti is loving it.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/26/avenatti-begs-trump.html

  19. guytaur says:
    Friday, April 27, 2018 at 10:12 am
    Barney

    I agree about the potential contributions by immigrants. However McDonald made clear that it was all about reducing submissions not paying attention to the results of online polling

    MacDonald is nearing the end of his long stint in the senate. He clearly doesn’t care much about good policy outcomes now (not that he ever did – his forte has been dodgy pork barrelling). He’s probably in pre-retirement mode at the moment and wants to take the lazy way out since examining submissions involves a lot more work than reading poll results.

  20. I await with interest to hear what Morrison is going to do to give income tax ‘relief’ to low and middle income earners.
    Bracket creep will benefit the high income earners (who pay income tax) with the same quantum if not % wise. Changing the threshold will be massively expensive to the Budget.
    But then again Morrison is known for his ‘brilliance’

  21. citizen @ #79 Friday, April 27th, 2018 – 7:35 am

    guytaur says:
    Friday, April 27, 2018 at 10:12 am
    Barney

    I agree about the potential contributions by immigrants. However McDonald made clear that it was all about reducing submissions not paying attention to the results of online polling

    MacDonald is nearing the end of his long stint in the senate. He clearly doesn’t care much about good policy outcomes now (not that he ever did – his forte has been dodgy pork barrelling). He’s probably in pre-retirement mode at the moment and wants to take the lazy way out since examining submissions involves a lot more work than reading poll results.

    I don’t think that is a problem for MacDonald.

    He has openly admitted he doesn’t read reports, why would submissions be any different!! 🙂

  22. guytaur @ #64 Friday, April 27th, 2018 – 10:04 am

    Noely@YaThinkN
    “There’s no requirement for politicians to tell the truth, no Australian Consumer and Competition Commission vetting for misleading conduct or outright lies.” @MichaelPascoe01 https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/26/confession-time-royal-commission/ This alone imo is the biggest problem we have with Government

    And just about nobody in the MSM who has the ability or intestinal fortitude to do so.

  23. Victoria

    Labor should not do a tax cuts war. Thats to fall into the LNP trap.

    They will always talk about tax cuts that reduce series and reward the rich. What Labor need to do is just say we will ensure we have the revenue to support the government services people expect.

    Thats good government.

  24. Guytaur

    Middle income earners are carrying most of the tax burden. Unless they have negatively geared ppty and the like. I feel tax cuts in this space is a good move

  25. Victoria

    Tax cuts are how the LNP win.

    Tax reform is what Labor needs to argue. Thats delivering services to ensure equality.

    Arguing tax cuts cuts across that narrative.

    Labor should not fall into the trap

  26. If the budget is well received then an August election could be possible. Otherwise one in October will be likely because the campaign period will be dominated by the AFL and NRL finals.

    If the Coalition does not screw up (which is a big ask) and the cards fall in the right, then a hung parliament with the possibility of a minority Coalition government with the support of Bob Latter and Cathy McGowan could be a possibility. Although Malcolm Turnbull will get deposed sometime during the term.

  27. <sarcasm>Gee, who could have predicted that the MTM would end up a complicated mess?</sarcasm>

    Where do I queue up to say “I told you so”?

  28. When Labor get in, they really need to implement an indexation of tax brackets (including the tax free threshold).

    This constant cycle of bracket creep pushing everyone into a higher tax bracket, then cut the tax rates for all brackets, over time moves us towards a flat income tax percentage. i.e. over time the burden of tax is shifting towards the poor and away from the rich.

    However, I doubt they will. The draw of hidden tax rises and visible tax cuts is probably too tempting to keep, despite the damage it does.

  29. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-summit-crossing/kim-becomes-first-north-korean-leader-to-cross-border-into-south-since-war-idUSKBN1HY01L

    Very interesting. It does seem that the two Koreas are trying to make peace. This appears to have the support of China. If it entails the removal of US forces from S.Korea, it will be interesting to see how the US reacts. They have been able to use the peninsula to project land-based military forces in North Asia. Their naval forces are already pretty-well excluded from the Taiwan Straits.

    Peace in Korea may herald a further reduction in the tactical reach of the US in the region, at a time when their attempts to amplify their reach in South East Asia have faltered and they are also losing influence in Central Asia and the Middle East.

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