Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Ides of March not.logged in (AnonBlock)
    Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 9:59 pm
    Comment #502

    Oh look its the Institute of Public Accidents making more ludicrous statements.

    On commercial channels the Ads are a great time for a loo break; on the ABC you have the IPA sprouting nonsense; it must be a hard finding people willing to make such fools of themselves.

  2. Julian Burnside‏ @JulianBurnside · 8h8 hours ago

    Here’s an idea for bankers convicted of ripping off the public: Don’t send them to jail (where they are still a drain on the public purse) but sentence them to home detention plus community service: let them truly repay a debt to society

  3. Good point. But don’t forget that there are some very influential Libs in the IPA.

    Shaun Warnock‏ @shaunwarnock_sw · 8h8 hours ago

    Seriously, if the Church of Scientology wanted a representative on every ABC news and current affairs program, they’d be told to piss off and pay for their own platform. Why do IPA get a free kick to spin their crap to the nation? #QandA

  4. Yeah Julian, home detention in their ‘Harborside Mansion” will be much tougher than being in jail. I think the public will be very happy to pay for their not so luxurious accommodation. Money well spent.

  5. Essential allocate preferences as per previous election i believe, so its inline with Newspolls 51-49 (52.4-47.6@2016)
    Which pollster does respondent allocated preferences still, anyone ?
    (i think the Newspoll ON preference allocation changes need to be explored)

  6. An early federal election is being considered at the highest levels of the Turnbull government to capitalise on an expected post-budget bounce, The New Daily can reveal.

    With the May budget already being touted as a feel-good document designed to help warm the electorate to the struggling government, the Coalition is looking at all options over the timing of the next poll.

    It could be as early as August.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. The banking royal commission dominates today’s offering.

    Interested? I’m not.
    Here are the details of the non-electoral segments of the latest Essential poll.
    Another apparent mass murder by vehicle. This time in Toronto. Latest news is that nine are dead and 16 injured.
    Jacob Saulwick reports on how Gladys Berejiklian’s stadium spending policy announced last year will haunt the government until the next election according to the head of the government’s own stadium.
    It’s all very well for Turnbull and some ministers to say they should have launched the royal commission earlier but they can’t effectively retreat from the full on rhetoric of the time of refusing to have one.
    More from David Crowe where he says that protecting the banks is a mug’s game.
    AMP’s board has been warned it must take stronger action over the shock misconduct in its financial planning arm, or it faces a showdown with some of the country’s largest superannuation funds at next month’s annual general meeting.
    It was another shocking day for AMP at the commission yesterday.
    Jennifer Hewett really tidies up AMP here.
    Karen Maley says that financial institutions are sitting on a powder keg of compensation claims.
    Phil Coorey muses over Turnbull’s admission and Abbott “seeing the light”.
    A rogue AMP planner ran a secret property advocacy business while advising clients to source investment properties from his firm, the banking royal commission has heard. This is a shocker!
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that the ”deals” between the institutions and their regulator that created the foundations for the wave of revulsion the commission’s hearing have generated. They buried the dirty detail and absolved the institutions and their executives of accountability, even when the smaller fry were banned or prosecuted.
    Michelle Grattan on all the changes in stance from government ministers – and others!
    John Passant discusses the Turnbull Government’s ongoing commitment to protecting the banks’ profitability, even gifting them billions in tax cuts, as the Banking Royal Commission continues to uncover “utterly shocking” truths.,11425
    Author Lindsay David concludes that politicians, regulators and the media must all be held to account for failing to expose wrongdoing uncovered in the banking royal commission
    Stephen Koukoulas tells us that despite the surge in tax receipts under the current Turnbull government, which is on track to deliver one of the Top 10 taxing budgets in Australia’s history, Australia remains a low taxing country.
    Greg Jericho writes that he participation rate of 65.7% in March broke the record set in December 2010. But comparing the make-up of the workforce then and now reveals a rather different workforce today – one with winners and losers.
    This simply STINKS!!!
    An early federal election is being considered at the highest levels of the Turnbull government to capitalise on an expected post-budget bounce says The New Daily’s Chris Johnson.
    Is this the sort of investment that reduced corporate tax cuts will result in?
    Peter Hartcher wonders if democracy is in its death throes.
    The number of public hospital emergency services being billed to private insurers has soared over the past 10 years, pinpointing the epicentre of the controversial $1 billion cost-shifting that is blamed for pushing up health premiums.
    Why Australian soldiering needs to step out of its time warp.
    Nick Batten writes on how Nationals prescription for rural health care is wrong.
    Paying more for petrol? You’re being ripped off.
    A Queensland Police officer has managed to keep his job after he deliberately and callously leaked the address of a woman fleeing intimate partner violence to the abusive ex-husband she was trying to escape.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe on Turnbull’s hindsight. Looks at Abbott hanging around.

    Mark David on Turnbull’s explanation for not holding an earlier royal commission.

    Paul Zanetti and a Korean truce.

    Alan Moir drops in on the corporate watchdog.

    Jon Kudelka also has a dig at the watchdog.
    David Pope visits a Serco establishment.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/d312ff6b0debeb48454942d5f9117ae24f561817
    More – including several from Matt Golding in here.

  8. Trump’s Russia Story Falls Apart As Proof Of Moscow Stay Surfaces

    Trump claims that he never stayed in Moscow during the 2013 Miss Universe pageant, but a new report shows that his plane landed in Moscow on Friday, and didn’t leave until Sunday night.

    Bloomberg reported, “Now, flight records obtained by Bloomberg provide to-the-minute details, from wheels down to departure. Combined with existing accounts and Trump’s own social-media posts, they capture a mere 45 hours and 43 minutes that, nearly five years later, loom large in the controversy engulfing the White House and at the heart of the Comey memos, which the Justice Department turned over last week to Congress.”

    Trump doesn’t want to be placed in Moscow for a reason. If he admits to spending time in Russia, the next questions will be who did he meet with and what did they talk about.

  9. Trump’s con of voters will implode like his casinos — but now there are ‘global consequences’: biographer

    Trump biographer Timothy O’Brien has written a new column for Bloomberg outlining how President Donald Trump’s time in the Oval Office is playing out much like his business career — but he warns that shouldn’t be seen as a positive.

    O’Brien notes that Trump has succeeded in his life largely by using hyperbole and flat-out fabrications to fool others into seeing him as more wealthy and powerful than he really is. However, O’Brien warns that this sort of con eventually catches up with him, as it did when he bankrupted some of his own casinos.

  10. The end of the Trump presidency now looms — here’s why

    The scandals surrounding President Donald Trump are metastasizing rapidly, much more than anyone would have thought just a few months ago.

    The investigation by Robert Mueller, now 11 months in duration, has been accumulating evidence of possible Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, violation of the emoluments clause of the Constitution, and the corruption surrounding many members of the Trump circle, including his own children and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

    But then the Stormy Daniels scandal, and other related shameful episodes involving other women became part of the equation, and the business dealings of Donald Trump in New York State were added to the complicated situation. And now, the seizure of materials and records of Trump personal lawyer Michael Cohen raises the ante on the troubles and turmoil surrounding Donald Trump

  11. US politics is in a lot of trouble, Trump might blow-up politically, but the Democrats are not in a position to provide strong leadership either.
    They issued a civil case against the Trump Campaign, Wikileaks, Russia and others claiming they infringed on their ‘trade secrets’ for commercial reasons. I think discovery for the case could backfire quite severely, damaging the administration of the democrats, exposing how controlled, manipulative, and anti-democratic they are, and have been.
    In any case, any political party anywhere that took such a damaging hit by losing to someone like trump should be looking forward, focusing on good candidates and policies for the next election. Instead they are looking back, trying to cover past mistakes.

  12. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    Good interviewing technique by Virginia Trioli just now on ABC News Breakfast. She was interviewing Pauline Hanson, and yes, I thought as many would do likewise, that I will mute it, because, Poorline. However, I persevered and I am glad I did because VT managed to elicit from PH that the reason she supports the Corporate Tax Cuts is so that people can get a job but not that they can get a wage rise as a result of the cuts. Also so that businesses won’t up sticks and move overseas. Though in true Pauline fashion she linked the tax cuts to high electricity prices. Apparently if company’s taxes are cut they can pay their bills easier.
    It sounds plausible, but the argument then needs to be made that, if that is the case, then why charge companies tax at all so that they can afford to pay their bills?

    Don’t mention the war though, that profit for companies is at historic highs and they really should be having no trouble at all in paying their bills. Plus, why should companies get off the hook but the average person in the street on a lot less income pro rata than the big businesses doesn’t?

    Thus does the debate about why companies should contribute to the societies they function within get lost. It’s not all about the companies and their needs.

  13. Except companies only pay taxes on profits, and there are no profits if they cant pay the bills, so its not plausible that tax cuts will help pay the bills.

  14. I’m proud to say that when someone posted “Kate Middleton has had a boy” it took me quite a while to work out who Kate Middleton was.

  15. zoomster

    This report in The Independent shows how it should be reported.

    Woman gives birth to baby boy

    A woman, Kate Middleton, gave birth to a baby boy this morning.

    The child entered the world at 11:01 am and weighed 8lb 7oz.

    Her husband, William, was at her bedside when the child was born.

    The boy is yet to be given a name. The boy is the third child the couple has had.

    The baby, which was delivered at St Mary’s Hospital, Paddington, is one of several due at the hospital today.

  16. Zoomster,
    ‘it took me quite a while to work out who Kate Middleton was’.
    I only know who she is through a satire called The Windsors on Netflix. She has/had a sister called Pippa who seems rather horrible.

  17. Morning all. Thanks BK. On the RC nothing surprises, least of all AMP. I am pleased to see ASIC getting attention. Remember APRA after the HIH collapse? No better. But why no mention of the AFP? Some of this falls in their area of responsibility.

  18. I like this bit about two opposition leaders in David Crowe’s article:

    The nation’s two opposition leaders will exploit the issue without mercy. Shorten will be able to taunt Turnbull over his bad call, while Tony Abbott will chip away at Turnbull with policy suggestions, as he did on Monday when he called for regulators to be replaced.

  19. Good Morning

    I am glad Andrew Leigh highlighted following Scandinavia is the way to go last night. As well as the question about the IPA.

    Labor people need to keep pushing the Scandinavia line.

    Questions about the IPA need to keep being asked as well.

  20. bug1 @ #11 Tuesday, April 24th, 2018 – 7:33 am

    US politics is in a lot of trouble, Trump might blow-up politically, but the Democrats are not in a position to provide strong leadership either.

    The U.S. doesn’t need strong leadership. They just need not fucking insane, shambolic, serially dishonest, morally reprehensible leadership. At the moment, anyone ‘not-Trump’ is a massive improvement for them.

  21. I’m so interested I didn’t realise it was their 3rd.

    Yes I was surprised too to learn this was their third child. It feels like only a year or so ago that they were getting married!

  22. Morning all

    I guess the commentariat will ignore Essential this time round, as it does not fit the narrative.

    Meanwhile the Trump Circus rolls on and of course it was only other day that Trump was tweeting what a slippery liar is.

    Shock horror, quell surprise that it turns out Trump lied to Comey when he said it didn’t stay overnight in Moscow.

  23. With the focus on the self reporting by banks and within the narrow parameters of the Terms of Reference agreed between the banks and the government – which also include Financial Services for an attack on Industry Superannuation Funds and Unions I will put that as a former senior banker I set the ambition to retire from the workforce on turning 50

    The catalyst for this ambition was that I was becoming increasingly disallusioned with those employed in the bank (including from the General Manager level) particularly from the time of deregulation and the resulting culture including the internal politics within the bank

    So I reasoned that I did not want to be there past 50

    One particular matter was people being sent off to Flowerdale for a weekend and coming back with a Shingle saying “Financial Adviser”

    They then knocked on your door seeking your introduction of them to the client base you managed

    I refused, responding that wealth was just too difficult to accrue and for a third party to then presume to tell you how to manage the wealth that had been accrued was insulting – and fraught with danger

    I was called to account at the top level – and held my position

    In retirement I do not associate with any of my former colleagues from the bank – my social circle is exclusively those who banked with me across the journey and those they have introduced me to

    Mind you there is selection of those who formerly banked with me also being those you had respect for and admiration of – so the minority!

    The position/s some of my closest friends occupy in society today speaks to their significant attributes and I am proud to call them friends

    That is the outcome from a 30 year career in banking – and having what I would like to think is a social conscience along with an education

    In banking we enjoyed a Home Mortgage Interest Rate at 45% of the public rate as part of your package plus our superannuation transitioned from a Defined Benefit Provident Fund to an accrual benefit at 12% of salary but you could increase that

    My retirement strategy saw me repaying the mortgage at public rates and contributing 15% to superannuation and these two factors significantly drove the outcome I was able to achieve at 50 – along with some other strategies which in the event meant I could allow my superannuation accruals to remain in accumulation phase until 2007 when Costello made pension phase tax free

    My moral compass saw me reject the advice to avail of franking credit refunds

    So there is an outcome of a career in banking – and I would suggest the story is a little different

    I have made a submission to the Royal Commission including events where I have been requested to make representations to banks and have led negotiations of resolutions – not always successfully confirming my view of the DNA of those employed in banking per Se

    There are exceptions, as there are across society but there is also the norm, unfortunately

    Hence my disdain for this government starting from its adherence to the most effective form of regulation is self regulation – for its constituency!!!!

  24. Fess

    a few years back, my good friend’s mother passed away. Her father who was utterly devoted to her, followed her within a few days. It was a bittersweet occurrence.

  25. Salty ronnie@MsVeruca
    Hello twitter,

    I’ll be making myself an Institute of Public Affairs “Research Fellow” on Friday. It seems to be pretty easy.

    If you’d like to join me in also nominating yourself to be an IPA Research Fellow, just add your name below & we’ll have a ceremony this Friday.

  26. Apparently Alan Finkel has come out with a piece saying that students are doing easy subjects in order to get good ATAR scores. This shows a dismal understanding of how ATARs work.

    My nephew did ‘easy subjects’ for VCE and got high raw scores on them. His final ATAR, however, was barely a pass – because part of calculating ATAR involves adjusting scores to reflect the achievements of the student cohort in particular subjects (so if everyone gets As, their scores are readjusted to fit the normal parabolic curve for achievement, meaning some of those As would become Fs).

    Students are advised, in fact, to do ‘hard’ subjects if they want good ATAR scores, because these tend to be marked up (everyone gets Fs, the scores are adjusted so that some of these become As).

    A student wanting the maximum score for the same amount of effort would thus opt to do a course basically consisting of languages, particularly ‘non -useful’ subjects such as Latin or Ancient Greek.

  27. Daily Terroir
    Replying to @no_filter_Yamba @geoffrey_payne and 4 others
    Centrelink informant : #agepension Some applicants from October yet to be actioned ( processed)

  28. Victoria

    In contrast, my Lithuanian grandparents, who had a marriage arranged for them, reportedly hated each other — and died in the same hospital three days apart.

  29. Vic:

    Yes you often hear of people who have been married for a long time passing within weeks and months of the other. Apparently Bush was hospitalised the day of his wife’s funeral with a life-threatening infection.

  30. the second phase of their company tax cut is probably dead. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has switched position on this bill yet again

    The above is a quote from one of David Crowe’s two articles linked by BK this morning. Has anyone here heard anything about his change of position by Hanson? I heard her only last week re-affirming her support for the government’s company tax cuts, though I did think at the time what she said would be very unpopular with some of her own base. Perhaps she has sniffed the wind and changed her mind.

  31. The problem with ATAR is that it only works if the students of every subject are equally representative of the population of students as a whole. But that’s doesn’t happen. Some subjects attract an average of much brighter or dimmer students than others.

    Thus, a dipstick who finishes top of a subject filled with lesser dipsticks will get a higher ATAR than a genius who comes last in a subject chock-a-block with even greater geniuses. That’s why, if you’re a bright student, you are tactically better off choosing a subject which is perceived to be easier and therefore attracts a higher proportion of low achievers.

  32. Fess

    George Senior has been unwell for quite sometime. I had actually expected him to pass away before Mrs Bush senior

  33. “the second phase of their company tax cut is probably dead. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has switched position on this bill yet again. It will be harder than ever for the government to change minds on the Senate crossbench.”


    “Do you really want to be on the same side as Pauline Hanson? Really? Are you sure?”

    <tax cuts pass with huge bipartisan support>

  34. Here’s the real way to cheat the ATAR.

    Pick subjects you find interesting, study moderately hard but also enjoy your teenage years.

    Recognise that there is little correlation between a University’s ATAR requirement, and the quality of its teaching.

    Recognise that you probably don’t want to study the high ATAR course your parents are pushing you towards.

    Recognise that from the day you get to University, no-one gives a damn what your ATAR was.

  35. “I’m proud to say that when someone posted “Kate Middleton has had a boy” it took me quite a while to work out who Kate Middleton was.”

    Don’t leave me in suspense, zoomster. Who is she?

  36. Ante Meridian

    Not how it works.The advice I’ve given (do hard subjects if you want a good ATAR score) is the advice given to students across the nation.

    I should also add that, apart from rounding, there are extra points awarded for subjects which are seen as desirable (for whatever reason) or are recognised as ‘harder’. Thus Latin – already referred to – earns a student bonus marks, and a student who scores 86 in both English and Maths will have the former mark scaled down and the second mark raised.

    For example, this site – which won’t let me cut and paste, for some reason, advises –

    ‘Students who study humanities subjects will need to achieve higher HSC marks in order to receive the same scaled marks as students who study maths and science-oriented subjects’.

  37. “Recognise that from the day you get to University, no-one gives a damn what your ATAR was.”

    Absolutely. Really, students need to do 1st year at Uni before they know what subject they really want to do.

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