Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 7:24 pm
    Don

    How fascinating. I am also a fan of the Jean Auel books but didn’t pick up the Ibogaine. I enjoyed them for the insight into communication before spoken language.

    And of course admired the depth of research and writing style.

    Another fan! Great to hear it.

    Jean used Ibogaine as the basis for the “sacred root” which Creb trained her in the use of. It does not grow in Europe, but that never bothered Auel.

    When you can take Creb (Shanidar 1) from Iraq and put him in the Crimean Peninsula, anything is possible.

    As a fan, you may be interested in my maps of the series:

    http://donsmaps.com/indexmaps.html

  2. lizzie @ #696 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    On the question of medical marijuana, there does seem to be medical support for its use against epileptic fits. Or am I wrong about that, too…

    Yes -there is reasonable evidence that some synthetic cannabinoids are effective for a few specific forms of childhood epilepsy, but not for most adult forms. The side effects can be challenging.

  3. Puffytmd says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 7:22 pm
    Don,
    Those books are a favourite of mine. I got the image of a woman wandering through a green savannah, gathering food as she went, and there being few humans on a vegetated Earth.

    I so wanted to be her.

    I wanted to be her too!

    But I am not equipped for the role. 😉

  4. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-25/medicare-levy-increase-to-fund-ndis-scrapped/9696746

    A multi-billion-dollar levy on Australians designed to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will be axed, the ABC can reveal.
    Key points:

    Raising the Medicare levy from 2 to 2.5 per cent was a key 2017 budget measure
    It would have raised $8 billion for the NDIS over four years from this July
    The Government struggled to get enough support in the Senate to increase the levy

    The Federal Government will ditch its plan to lift the Medicare levy from 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison said the measure would ensure the NDIS was fully funded, and would have raised $8 billion over four years from July 2019.

    An average wage earner would have paid an extra $375 in tax.

  5. So the poles and wires replicates gas

    The population per se are charged to make up a shortfall in revenue

    Poles and wires because of those with Solar panels

    Gas because of the reduction of revenue due to the depreciation of the AUD (the Export Contracts written in USD’s)

    So Citizens have the responsibility thrust upon them to protect Balance Sheets

    GFC?

  6. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 7:33 pm
    don,
    I also get why you like stones now.

    The bloody things consume my life.

    And I get emails all the time from people (mostly the US, but also Britain and France) who think that they have discovered evidence of stone age art (say circa 20 000 years ago) in places such as Kansas where that is never going to happen.

    Or in the case of Britain and France, they pick up rocks from the road and think they have discovered something unknown to science.

    My favourite was the bloke who sent photos of a piece which he said “Hold it this way, and it is an Indian chief, this way and it is a horse head, this way, and it is a mammoth!”

    The capacity for self delusion is strong in the human condition. It is also a tribute to our ability to recognise patterns from very little information.

    This is a positive evolutionary trait. Far better to think

    “****! that looks like a tiger behind that tree!”

    And to take precautionary action but be mistaken in your diagnosis, than to be surprised by a real tiger.

  7. My favourite was the bloke who sent photos of a piece which he said “Hold it this way, and it is an Indian chief, this way and it is a horse head, this way, and it is a mammoth!”

    The capacity for self delusion is strong in the human condition. It is also a tribute to our ability to recognise patterns from very little information.

    Well, someone in America did see Jesus Christ in a piece of toast! 😀

  8. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 7:33 pm
    I enjoyed them initially but they got to be too much ‘..and then she invented this…’

    Many other fans think as you do.

    But that does not take away from the introduction that Auel provides, not available anywhere else, to the development of stone age tools and art.

    You can read the dry scientific journals, as I must, in French and German and Czech and Russian, but it is not the same as applying it to a particular person and their reaction to the inventions. Her time scale is necessarily compressed, but it makes it understandable in a way that no one else has ever attempted.

  9. So now the ‘terrorism’ has truly been appropriated by the alt-right.

    “Hours before the Toronto van attack, a post on the Facebook profile of the chief suspect declared that “the incel rebellion has already begun, we will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys”.

    The message has brought new-found attention to the so-called incel movement, one of the stranger offshoots of the “alt right”, and led to calls for the attack to be recognised as an act of far-right terrorism.

    Incel is short for “involuntarily celibate”. The term rose to prominence because of its adoption by a subsection of the “manosphere”, a loose collection of movements united by misogyny that also includes some men’s rights activists, pick-up artists, and Mgtow/volcel – heterosexual men who refuse to have sex with women for political reasons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/25/what-is-incel-movement-toronto-van-attack-suspect?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true

  10. Citizen, I didn’t realise you were in Canberra which is a special case. I was referring to domestic customers in Tas, Vic, Sa and Qld. There the ‘poles and wire’ cost is rolled into their per kilowatt charge and is percentage of their total bill. Something in the order of 40-50%.

    So if you use very little electricity, you pay very little for the poles and wires, even though the cost to supply electricity to their place is the same as someone who is a heavy user of electricity.

  11. I would have thought “War” was a theatre of War and to be recognised at the War Memorial you would have needed to have served in a theatre of War

    Otherwise it should be a Defence Force Memorial – same as recognitions on Australia Day for serving personnel acknowledging their service

  12. heterosexual men who refuse to have sex with women for political reasons.

    Yeah right. More likely they’re dipshit moron losers that no woman in her right mind would ever consider going there.

    Incel? Please.

  13. I had no problem with the NDIS tax hike. The Coalition will use its rejection to wind back the NDIS (for the disabled, not private spivs who want to profit from it).

    A future Labor Government will not be able to get any revenue measures through, at least in its first term, no matter how just, sensible or urgent, regardless of whether or not they have a mandate. It should wave any revenue increases through now, unless the Greens support them and they can get through without Labor, in which case feel free to oppose and let the Greens take the flak.

    A future Labor Government will need the revenue. Alternatively it can trade Coalition tax hikes later in exchange for rewinding bits of the Howard-Costello vandalism.

  14. Confessions @ #711 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 3:53 pm

    Dan G:

    Do you have a link to the Canadian Netflix?

    Player One @ #758 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 5:45 pm

    citizen @ #742 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    Unless a person with panels is totally off the grid, they presumably pay the supply charge even if their purchased electricity is very low.

    This is true. So in fact people with solar panels are subsidising those without.

    Rubbish.

    The grid component of electricity is by far the most expensive part of the cost of supplying electriicty.

  15. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 8:09 pm
    heterosexual men who refuse to have sex with women for political reasons.

    Yeah right. More likely they’re dipshit moron losers that no woman in her right mind would ever consider going there.

    That would seem to be implicit in the link provided. The men concerned are not paired up with a woman because of bad luck, but because of their innate unfitness for a relationship.

    In general, in western society, as you imply, it is the woman who decides whether a relationship with a man will proceed.

    Which is why men get upset about being put in the “Friend Zone” when they would like the relationship to go to a more intimate level. They have no say in the matter.

  16. C@tmomma @ #763 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 7:53 pm

    My favourite was the bloke who sent photos of a piece which he said “Hold it this way, and it is an Indian chief, this way and it is a horse head, this way, and it is a mammoth!”

    The capacity for self delusion is strong in the human condition. It is also a tribute to our ability to recognise patterns from very little information.

    Well, someone in America did see Jesus Christ in a piece of toast! 😀

    Meatloaf saw Paradise by the the dash board light!

  17. grimace:

    The grid component of electricity is by far the most expensive part of the cost of supplying electricity.

    Perhaps so, but I am here to tell you that the last 200 metres of overhead wire and pole to our place has not been replaced with a better, thicker cable since 1975 when it was put up.

    Which means that I am unable to upload electricity to the grid because it increases the voltage to a point where it burns out the A/C.

  18. Sprocket ~ @ #766 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    So now the ‘terrorism’ has truly been appropriated by the alt-right.

    “Hours before the Toronto van attack, a post on the Facebook profile of the chief suspect declared that “the incel rebellion has already begun, we will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys”.

    The message has brought new-found attention to the so-called incel movement, one of the stranger offshoots of the “alt right”, and led to calls for the attack to be recognised as an act of far-right terrorism.

    Incel is short for “involuntarily celibate”. The term rose to prominence because of its adoption by a subsection of the “manosphere”, a loose collection of movements united by misogyny that also includes some men’s rights activists, pick-up artists, and Mgtow/volcel – heterosexual men who refuse to have sex with women for political reasons.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/apr/25/what-is-incel-movement-toronto-van-attack-suspect?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true

    Um, maybe if these losers spent less time whining away on 4chan and sub-reddits then they could get out of their rooms and into the real world where they could meet real women who may take a sexual interest in them!

    It’s called pheromones guys and it’s Mother Nature’s way of organising the propagation of the species. Much more reliable and successful than Tinder!

  19. In general, in western society, as you imply, it is the woman who decides whether a relationship with a man will proceed.

    Which is why men get upset about being put in the “Friend Zone” when they would like the relationship to go to a more intimate level. They have no say in the matter.

    Nonsense. Relationships moving forward are always on the man. Women who are forthright in what they want are castigated as desperate or grasping.

    And I’m inclined to think the Friend Zone is an urban myth.

  20. don @ #777 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    grimace:

    The grid component of electricity is by far the most expensive part of the cost of supplying electricity.

    Perhaps so, but I am here to tell you that the last 200 metres of overhead wire and pole to our place has not been replaced with a better, thicker cable since 1975 when it was put up.

    Which means that I am unable to upload electricity to the grid because it increases the voltage to a point where it burns out the A/C.

    No doubt that anyone at the fringe of the grid, or in a grid constrained area gets a raw deal. Both are incredibly expensive places to supply (“poles and wires”) electricity to.

  21. Observer says:
    Wednesday, April 25, 2018 at 7:49 pm
    So the poles and wires replicates gas

    The population per se are charged to make up a shortfall in revenue

    Poles and wires because of those with Solar panels

    Gas because of the reduction of revenue due to the depreciation of the AUD (the Export Contracts written in USD’s)

    So Citizens have the responsibility thrust upon them to protect Balance Sheets

    GFC?

    Go home, Observer, you are drunk. Sleep it off.

  22. Confessions @ #779 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    In general, in western society, as you imply, it is the woman who decides whether a relationship with a man will proceed.

    Which is why men get upset about being put in the “Friend Zone” when they would like the relationship to go to a more intimate level. They have no say in the matter.

    Nonsense. Relationships moving forward are always on the man. Women who are forthright in what they want are castigated as desperate or grasping.

    And I’m inclined to think the Friend Zone is an urban myth.

    The friend zone is no urban myth. Been caught there myself.

    There is nothing I like more than a forthright woman.

  23. So, basically, Turnbull and Morrison are going to do what Howard and Costello tried to do when they looked like losing government…piss money against the wall like drunken sailors in a forlorn attempt to buy voter’s affection for them.

    I hope it works out as well for them as it did the last lot they are copying. 🙂

  24. grimace:

    The ‘friend zone’ occurs when you have feelings for someone who doesn’t reciprocate your feelings yet wants to keep you in their life. Nothing to do with gender as it can happen to both men and women. It’s just a fact of life with relationships.

  25. Confessions:

    Nonsense. Relationships moving forward are always on the man.

    Nonsense right back at you. That is not the way the world works.

    In any case, that is not what you said earlier:

    heterosexual men who refuse to have sex with women for political reasons.

    Yeah right. More likely they’re dipshit moron losers that no woman in her right mind would ever consider going there.

    This last quote is correct, the first is not.

  26. This last quote is correct, the first is not.

    The last quote was indeed my words. The first however were words I quoted from the article posted here.

    I don’t see how any of this relates to your own comment about the one way street of men being hard done by in relationships by women, and for that matter I don’t really care.

  27. Barney in Go Dau @ #786 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 9:01 pm

    WTF are they drilling an oil well in the middle of houses for?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-25/oil-fire-in-indonesia-kills-15/9696910

    Try this from the same source:

    The head of police in the area said the oil well might have been drilled illegally and the fire might have been started when someone was smoking a cigarette.

    “We suspect this is a well drilled by the community… and we suspect there was someone smoking in the area at the time,” police official Wahyu Kuncoro said.

    Such illegal drilling is common in Aceh, where Pertamina operates an oil field.

  28. I find it interesting that Morrison is now going to claim the budget is in such a good position the Medicare levy is not needed.

    ” Revenue is up etc etc and therefore we do not need the increase “type of babble while promising at the same time tax cuts for all !

    12 months ago there was such a structural problem with the budget that it was imperative the levy increase to ensure the long term future of the NDIS. Now, all of a sudden, the budget is fine. What happens when the next downturn occurs ? Morrison is arguing both ends of the same argument. He is now arguing that there was never a structural problem with the budget just a short term downturn in revenue while just 12 months ago it was all about labor leaving a huge hole in the budget long term with regard to NDIS funding. Good luck with that.

    This ” black flip ” ( I will wait with baited breath to see that in the MSM headlines ) hopefully will bite the government on its arse and I hope NDIS advocates rip into Turnbull and co over their lack of commitement to ” secure” NDIS funding.

    It should be remembered it wad only a few weeks ago that NDIS advocates were ripping into labor for ” playing politics ” by not supporting the levy rise and it was only 12 months ago the MSM as a whole ripped into Shorten for opposing a across the board increase.

    I hope to be proven wrong but I suspect the silence will be deafining.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  29. Confessions @ #788 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    This last quote is correct, the first is not.

    The last quote was indeed my words. The first however were words I quoted from the article posted here.

    I don’t see how any of this relates to your own comment about the one way street of men being hard done by in relationships by women, and for that matter I don’t really care.

    The whole concept of men being hard done by in relationships by women reeks of pathetic martyrdom. It’s nonsense dreamt up by pathetic men mourning the loss of their position of privelledge over women (and minorities) in society.

  30. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-25/anzac-day-dawn-service-at-kings-park-in-perth/9693226

    In a nod to the Australian and New Zealand cooperation exemplified at Gallipoli, the Haka, an ancient Maori war dance, and the corroboree, a traditional Aboriginal dance, were performed in unison immediately following the dawn service.

    Hundreds of dancers of all ages took part in the performance, which is believed to be the first time the two dances have been performed together.

    Their energetic show was watched on by a large crowd that surrounded the performance on all sides, who cheered and clapped as the performers hugged one another at the end.

  31. https://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/other-sports/624771/The-Haka-words-what-All-Blacks-New-Zealand-saying-war-dance-British-and-Irish-Lions-tour

    Ka mate, Ka mate words

    Taringa Whakaraong INSTRUCTION: Listen up with your ears
    Kia rite INSTRUCTION: Prepare yourself (repeated)
    Kia mau hi INSTRUCTION: Hands on hips, bend the knees
    Ringa ringa pakia INSTRUCTION: Slap hands against the thighs
    Waewae takahia kia kino nei hoki INSTRUCTION: Stamp the feet as hard as you can
    Kia Kino hei hoki INSTRUCTION AND SING: As hard as you can
    Ka mate! Ka mate! SING: It is death!, It is death!
    Ka ora! Ka ora! SING: It is life!, It is life!
    Ka mate! Ka mate! SING: It is death! It is death!
    Ka ora! Ka ora! SING: It is life! It is life!
    Tenei Te Tangata Puhuru huru SING: This is the hairy man
    Nana nei tiki mai SING: Who fetched the sun
    Whakawhiti te ra SING: And caused to shine again
    A upa ne ka up ane SING: One upward step, another upward step
    Upane, Kaupane SING: An upward step
    Whiti te ra SING: The sun shines!
    Hi SING: Rise

  32. Shorter Secret Service: forget about a so-called professional drunkenly trying to get to a woman employee in the middle of the night in a way that makes her feel decidedly uncomfortable, just don’t wake the president!

    Kaitlan CollinsVerified account@kaitlancollins
    13m13 minutes ago
    During an overseas trip in 2015, Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson was intoxicated and banged on the hotel room door of a female employee. The incident became so noisy that the Secret Service stopped him out of concern that he would wake then-President Barack Obama.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/24/politics/ronny-jackson-door-allegations/index.html

  33. The whole concept of men being hard done by in relationships by women reeks of pathetic martyrdom. It’s nonsense dreamt up by pathetic men mourning the loss of their position of privelledge over women (and minorities) in society.

    This Incel mob definitely embody pathetic martyrdom that’s for sure.

  34. I notice Morrison is still going on with his bullshit about having to fully “fund” the NDIS.

    I haven’t heard one word about how the Business Tax cuts will be “funded.”

    It’s all bullshit but there is a question of consistency! 🙂

  35. Barney in Go Dau @ #797 Wednesday, April 25th, 2018 – 9:36 pm

    I notice Morrison is still going on with his bullshit about having to fully “fund” the NDIS.

    I haven’t heard one word about how the Business Tax cuts will be “funded.”

    It’s all bullshit but there is a question of consistency! 🙂

    I have made the point many times before, but while ever there is a deficit, no item in the budget can be regarded as ‘fully funded’. It is just nonsense.
    Not that I think a Government has to always run a balanced budget.

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