Next federal election pendulum (provisional)

A pendulum for the next federal election, assuming new draft boundaries in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT are adopted as is.

Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.

The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.

The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.

The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).

For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.

Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017

Coalition seats Labor seats
+0.0% (0.6%) Qld CAPRICORNIA HERBERT Qld (0.0%) 0.0%
0.0% (0.6%) Qld FORDE COX (CORANGAMITE) Vic (0.1%) +3.2%
(0.7%) NSW GILMORE COWAN WA (0.7%)
0.0% (-1.0%) Qld FLYNN LONGMAN Qld (0.8%) 0.0%
(1.1%) NSW ROBERTSON LINDSAY NSW (1.1%)
(1.4%) NSW BANKS GRIFFITH Qld (1.4%) -0.2%
0.0% (1.6%) Qld PETRIE MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) Vic (1.5%) +0.1%
+0.2% (1.8%) Qld DICKSON BRADDON Tas (1.6%) -0.6%
(2.1%) WA HASLUCK DUNKLEY Vic (1.7%) +3.2%
(2.3%) NSW PAGE MACQUARIE NSW (2.2%)
+1.1% (2.5%) Vic LA TROBE ISAACS Vic (2.4%) -3.3%
+7.6% (2.8%) SA BOOTHBY EDEN-MONARO NSW (2.9%)
+2.0% (3.2%) Vic CHISHOLM PERTH WA (3.3%)
+4.3% (3.3%) SA MAYO RICHMOND NSW (4%)
+0.0% (3.4%) Qld DAWSON LYONS Tas (4%) +1.7%
0.0% (3.4%) Qld BONNER BENDIGO Vic (4%) +0.2%
(3.6%) WA SWAN MORETON Qld (4.1%) +0.0%
(3.6%) WA PEARCE HOTHAM Vic (4.3%) -3.2%
-0.0% (3.9%) Qld LEICHHARDT DOBELL NSW (4.8%)
-1.9% (4.1%) Vic CASEY JAGAJAGA Vic (5.1%) +0.4%
(4.7%) NSW REID McEWEN Vic (5.4%) -2.4%
+0.4% (4.8%) Vic INDI BASS Tas (5.4%) -0.7%
+1.2% (5.7%) SA STURT LILLEY Qld (5.8%) +0.5%
+0.1% (6%) Qld BRISBANE SOLOMON NT (6.1%) +0.1%
(6.1%) WA STIRLING GREENWAY NSW (6.3%)
+0.5% (6.2%) Vic DEAKIN BURT WA (7.1%)
-0.1% (6.7%) Qld KENNEDY BALLARAT Vic (7.5%) +0.1%
(6.8%) WA CANNING FREMANTLE WA (7.5%)
0.0% (7.1%) Qld BOWMAN PARRAMATTA NSW (7.7%)
-0.7% (7.1%) Vic FLINDERS BLAIR Qld (8.2%) -0.7%
-1.2% (7.4%) Vic ASTON LINGIARI NT (8.2%) -0.2%
+1.6% (7.6%) Vic MONASH (McMILLAN) WERRIWA NSW (8.2%)
-2.9% (7.7%) Vic MENZIES HINDMARSH SA (8.2%) +0.7%
+0.0% (8.2%) Qld WIDE BAY BARTON NSW (8.3%)
-0.1% (8.4%) Qld HINKLER MACARTHUR NSW (8.3%)
-3.5% (8.6%) SA GREY KINGSFORD SMITH NSW (8.6%)
-0.1% (9%) Qld RYAN CORIO Vic (8.6%) -1.4%
+0.1% (9.1%) Vic WANNON BEAN ACT (8.9%) New
+0.1% (9.2%) Qld FISHER ADELAIDE SA (8.9%) +2.1%
(9.3%) NSW HUGHES OXLEY Qld (9%) 0.0%
0.0% (9.6%) Qld WRIGHT MARIBYRNONG Vic (9.5%) -2.8%
(9.7%) NSW BENNELONG HOLT Vic (9.9%) -4.3%
-0.6% (10.1%) Vic HIGGINS SHORTLAND NSW (9.9%)
(10.2%) NSW HUME PATERSON NSW (10.7%)
-0.0% (10.9%) Qld FAIRFAX FRANKLIN Tas (10.7%) +0.0%
(11%) WA MOORE MAKIN SA (10.8%) +0.1%
(11.1%) WA DURACK RANKIN Qld (11.3%) 0.0%
(11.1%) WA TANGNEY BRAND WA (11.4%)
(11.1%) NSW WARRINGAH FENNER ACT (11.8%) -2.1%
+0.2% (11.3%) Qld FADDEN McMAHON NSW (12.1%)
(11.6%) NSW LYNE HUNTER NSW (12.5%)
0.0% (11.6%) Qld McPHERSON CANBERRA ACT (12.9%) +4.4%
(11.8%) NSW CALARE CUNNINGHAM NSW (13.3%)
-0.2% (12.4%) Vic GOLDSTEIN KINGSTON SA (13.5%) +0.1%
(12.6%) WA FORREST WHITLAM NSW (13.7%)
(12.6%) NSW COWPER NEWCASTLE NSW (13.8%)
-0.8% (12.6%) Vic KOOYONG LALOR Vic (14.3%) +0.9%
(13.6%) NSW NORTH SYDNEY GELLIBRAND Vic (14.7%) -3.6%
+6.9% (14.4%) SA BARKER SYDNEY NSW (15.3%)
-0.4% (14.6%) Qld MONCRIEFF CLARK (DENISON) Tas (15.3%) -0.0%
(15%) WA O’CONNOR BRUCE Vic (15.8%) +11.7%
(15.1%) NSW PARKES MELBOURNE Vic (17%) +0.4%
0.0% (15.3%) Qld GROOM FOWLER NSW (17.5%)
(15.4%) NSW COOK WATSON NSW (17.6%)
(15.7%) NSW MACKELLAR SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) SA (17.9%) +0.8%
(16.4%) NSW NEW ENGLAND GORTON Vic (18.3%) -1.2%
(16.4%) NSW RIVERINA CHIFLEY NSW (19.2%)
(16.4%) NSW BEROWRA BLAXLAND NSW (19.5%)
0.0% (17.5%) Qld MARANOA CALWELL Vic (20%) +2.2%
(17.7%) NSW WENTWORTH SCULLIN Vic (20.4%) +3.1%
(17.8%) NSW MITCHELL FRASER Vic (20.9%) New
-0.3% (18.1%) Vic GIPPSLAND WILLS Vic (21.7%) +0.5%
-1.4% (19.9%) Vic MALLEE BATMAN Vic (22.2%) +0.5%
(20.5%) NSW FARRER GRAYNDLER NSW (22.4%)
(20.7%) WA CURTIN
(21%) NSW BRADFIELD
-2.5% (22.4%) Vic NICHOLLS (MURRAY)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”

Comments Page 4 of 14
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  1. Confessions says: Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 2:25 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Watching the interview with Avenetti he’s either cocksure his legal strategy is going to pay dividends, crazy brave for making such statements of surety on national TV, or totally full of shite and spinning like a top for his client!

    *******************************************************************

    Probably a mixture of all three, Confessions – anything I have read about him has won a lot of praise for his bold tactics that have clearly outsmarted the hacks that Trump has scraped together – as no self respecting lawyer wants to be associated with him in any way – they all say – One he doesn’t listen and two he doesn’t pay …..

    The thought that he may somehow ( long shot, I know ) be able to get Trump/Cohen on the stand over the Daniels affair has Trump pretty scared with what might come out over many issues that Trump wants to keep secret. Avanatti comes over as a personable guy that one would want in their corner for a legal confrontation over some dispute

  2. Re attorney/client privilege… in court you can argue black is white.

    It’s not whether privilege actually exists or not. It’s how long you can string out argument in court.

  3. Zoidlord says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 2:02 pm
    @Don

    The problem is it’s not just a simple $400 here or there, these patients need daily doses most likely for a long time, that is why it is said to cost over $100K for a year just these pills.

    Not to mention other fees or operations, hospital care, transport, etc that US patients need to fork out for.

    Because they don’t have same hospital system as we do with Medicare and PBS.

    I am aware of all that, read my post again.


    Don’t be an apologist for the makers of these pills.

    Straw man, I am not an apologist. Read my post again.


    Coming from experience who worked in a factory making health care supplements, they do make a bit of profit.

    In the US, it is a staggeringly exorbitant amount of profit.

  4. phoenixRed:

    One thing came through loud and clear: he truly believes Cohen is the weakest of weak links in the Trump Imbroglio, but he knows where all the Trump bodies are buried, and will sing his heart out to prosecutors.

    I’m sceptical but we’ll see.

  5. Presumably Murdoch will claim this is a bad thing:

    Shorten plan to give unions more clout

    EWIN HANNAN
    If Labor win power, the rules of engagement between labour and capital will be rewritten to enhance the influence of unions.

  6. Confessions says: Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 2:42 pm

    phoenixRed:

    One thing came through loud and clear: he truly believes Cohen is the weakest of weak links in the Trump Imbroglio, but he knows where all the Trump bodies are buried, and will sing his heart out to prosecutors.

    ****************************************************

    That’s the impression I got from Avanatti – and a whole lot of other legal heads in the US who say that Cohen – when faced with inevitable – he doesn’t want to be some guys ‘wife’ in some hell hole jail – will sing like a canary- even long time Trump confident sleazebag Roger Stone said today that Cohen may seek revenge on Trump for treating him like garbage over the years ……. all seem to think Cohen will inevitably fold on Trump

  7. “”When the Greens get enough numbers to become a government in their own right you will be arguing exactly the same case as the Greens.””.

    I regret to inform you, that will not happen in my lifetime, so in the meantime vote Labor if you wan t to get rid of this USELESS LNP+NATS coalition!.

  8. lizzie says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 3:03 pm
    steve davis

    They wanted to see the kangaroo jump!
    Some of our Asian friends have no feeling for animals, unfortunately.

    _____________________

    The zoo needs to put up high wire fences such as those on overpass bridges in Australia which are specifically there to stop people throwing rocks on the cars passing beneath.

    Every country has its fair share of idiots.

  9. Thanks for this link about our stillborn Bill of Rights, Lizzie (1:04pm).
    http://treatyrepublic.net/content/rudd-government-rejects-human-rights-charter
    I did not know about the role that Bob Carr played, but it just adds to the reasons I dislike the man intensely. (And I expect to be campaigning for Labor at the next federal election).
    It was Carr who single handedly destroyed STEM teaching in NSW schools by introducing the worst HSC science curricula since pre-Wyndham scheme.

    It was a sop to mostly private school parents to try and stop students with ESL (i.e. Kids of Vietnamese boat people etc) from getting high Uni entrance scores by studying Physics, Chemistry and Maths.
    It made the paying parents angry that Cabramatta kids were beating their “betters”, don’t ya know.
    (I marked HSC physics in ’80s & ’90s. Those kids were very good).
    Thankfully, it has been changed back this year.

  10. ML:

    (I marked HSC physics in ’80s & ’90s. Those kids were very good).
    Thankfully, it has been changed back this year.

    At one time, students doing Advanced, Ext 1 and Ext 2 maths were given fair compensation for their marks in the NSW HSC.

    Now we have the situation that students who formerly would have studied at least Advanced are now doing Standard (used to be General) Maths, and are being better rewarded than if they chose to do higher level maths.

    Is that still the case?

    The crunch comes, of course, when they get to University and need calculus.

    The universities used to pretend that a ‘bridging course’ would solve that problem. Predictably, a short course (months or less) in calculus and similar algebra (taught as lectures, not in a normal classroom) is no match for two years study with a committed teacher.

    They did it, I suspect, to get bums on seats. Who cares if they bomb out at the end of the semester exams?

    Now, at least some Universities are laying it out clearly that if you want to do Science/Maths based subjects at Uni, you need at least Advanced Maths.

  11. Don, yes it’s still the case, AFAIK (but I’m losing touch with the details ), and yes, it’s to get bums on seats.
    The academics hate how the system now allows in students with year 10 standard knowledge because they have to adjust their teaching to try and compensate.
    Not possible, obviously.
    What’s more, they can’t fail them (unless they are truly woeful) because that affects the Uni’s bottom line (dropouts don’t come back next year).
    Fortunately, some (only some) Unis are imposing entry standards again.
    I hate to say it, but Birmingham’s caps may be causing the change.

  12. uytaur says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 12:40 pm
    briefly

    Unless you can show the Greens polling suddenly raising to the degree that they will become the government instead of Labor you have no case against encouraging those voting Green to preference Labor.

    The case against the Gs is they ride shotgun for the LNP all the damned time. They are Tories in fancy dress.

    The Gs campaign against Labor endlessly. It is only natural that Labor should campaign against them in reply. They are among Labor’s opponents. If you want a Labor Government, the obvious and rational thing to do is to vote Labor. If you vote otherwise, it’s fair to conclude you do not want a Labor Government.

  13. Australian banks in crisis – Royal Commission now global news after shocking revelations from AMP and CBA
    RC has made it to world news sites.

  14. For those wondering about Guiliani’s possible tactics, the New Yorker had this today-but-yesterday:

    Giuliani, of course, is a former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, too. That position was where he established his public reputation, largely by fighting organized crime. Although he says that his remit is to deal with Mueller’s immediate inquiries, it seems unthinkable that Trump won’t also seek his advice on the Cohen case, in which Trump already has a separate team of lawyers who are trying to assert attorney-client privilege in regards to any seized documents that may relate to him.

    Although Giuliani was known for using aggressive tactics when he was the U.S. Attorney, he could well end up querying the forceful methods used against Cohen by the investigators working for his successor. One well-known lawyer who has worked with Giuliani in the past has already done this. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Michael Mukasey, who served as the Attorney General from 2007 to 2009, questioned whether the potential crimes that the Southern District is looking into, which include bank fraud and violating the campaign-finance laws, justified the use of “an intrusive and unusual search warrant.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/rudy-giulianis-wishful-thinking-about-trump-and-mueller

  15. don

    Ah calculus. Absolutely totally hated it when being taught it back in the day. However years later went back to it and loved it. Wonder WTF did I find so difficult ‘back in the day ‘ 🙂 Actually the secret is the text book I came across it “spoke to me” . Found that with statistics as well. Looked at several that supposedly taught the same area,some left me thinking WTF are they saying while one or two made it seem so easy.

    Anyway, my take away from it was to keep checking as many text books as possible until one of the “Speaks to you”.

  16. Maude Lynne

    Worth remembering that the person who gets your Number 1 vote also gets the AEC’s dollar.

    That was my thought, too. 🙂

  17. Oh dear. Not just once but twice.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    James Comey illegally leaked classified documents to the press in order to generate a Special Council? Therefore, the Special Council was established based on an illegal act? Really, does everybody know what that means?

  18. poroti says: Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 3:40 pm

    don

    Ah calculus. Absolutely totally hated it when being taught it back in the day. However years later went back to it and loved it. Wonder WTF did I find so difficult ‘back in the day ‘ Actually the secret is the text book I came across it “spoke to me”

    ********************************************************

    A fantastically inspirational film – “Stand And Deliver ” – ( said to be 90 % true/10% story heightened )

    Jaime Escalante is a mathematics teacher in a school in a LA Hispanic neighbourhood. Convinced that his students have potential, he adopts unconventional teaching methods help gang members and no-hopers pass the rigorous Advanced Placement exam in calculus. Stand and Deliver is one of the best films of the Eighties and one of the most inspiring . Anyone who could get kids fired up about algebra and calculus as Edward James Olmos as Jaime Escalante did has my undying respect.

    The Mexican-American kids he teaches in Garfield High School have it in their minds they’ll be filling station attendants, fast food cooks, or day laborers, striving for better is not something they think about. More than teaching them math skills, we are shown how Olmos makes them believe in themselves and their potential.

    Olmos is one of those rare teachers whose very presence in the lives of his students makes them change.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 12:28 pm
    One things for certain – all Labor people should be urging for the re-election of Mark Butler as ALP President.

    ….an attempt to plant the kiss of death on Butler’s chances….

  20. @beneltham
    ·
    11m
    Exhibit A: Patty Akopiantz is a board member of Belvoir. She is also a current director of AMP. At AMP she is on the Governance Committee. Did she know about the doctored Clayton Utz report? 2/n

  21. don @ #163 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:24 pm

    ML:

    (I marked HSC physics in ’80s & ’90s. Those kids were very good).
    Thankfully, it has been changed back this year.

    At one time, students doing Advanced, Ext 1 and Ext 2 maths were given fair compensation for their marks in the NSW HSC.

    Now we have the situation that students who formerly would have studied at least Advanced are now doing Standard (used to be General) Maths, and are being better rewarded than if they chose to do higher level maths.

    Is that still the case?

    The crunch comes, of course, when they get to University and need calculus.

    The universities used to pretend that a ‘bridging course’ would solve that problem. Predictably, a short course (months or less) in calculus and similar algebra is no match for two years study.

    They did it, I suspect, to get bums on seats. Who cares if they bomb out at the end of the semester exams?

    Now, at least some Universities are laying it out clearly that if you want to do Science/Maths based subjects at Uni, you need at least Advanced Maths.

    I found calculus easier at Uni than at High School because it was dealt with as an infinite series at Uni and so I understood exactly what it was.

    This was early to mid 80s, is this still the case? 🙂

  22. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 1:25 pm
    briefly @ #121 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 9:39 am

    If you want to help the LNP, vote G. It’s that simple.

    This all or nothing mentality is bullsh!t.

    No Party in Australia can can form Government without preferences from voters who prefer someone else first.

    Labor are the only Party that can form Government in their own right but in a close run election where no one gets a majority it is only right that they try and gain the support of the cross benches to form a majority.

    This is the Gs dream election result…the one where Labor will need cross-party support to govern. Knowing this, the Gs put most of their energy into disrupting Labor, hoping to prevent the election of a strong Labor government, this being their worst nightmare.

    The Gs strategy consists of weakening Labor wherever possible. They basically exist in order to defeat Labor candidates, programs, policies and goals. They have no other purpose. In this, they have become shadows of the LNP.

    And yet, they still suppose that Labor should be grateful to them. Unbelievable hubris from a petite bourgeois sect who think they are better than the rest.

  23. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 4:14 pm
    lizzie @ #174 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:53 pm

    Maude Lynne

    Worth remembering that the person who gets your Number 1 vote also gets the AEC’s dollar.

    My attitudes have nothing to do with the AEC $.

    It’s really about winning or losing. Labor have to win. We work for that end and to advantage all the people in the community that rely on Labor; to serve the historic goals to which Labor is committed.

    The Gs set out to obstruct Labor just as much as do the LNP. The Gs define themselves by their opposition to Labor. They should be treated as antagonists because that is exactly what they are.

  24. Mumble on FF own goal merger with Bernardi’s mob.

    Then, last year, Family First merged with Liberal defector Cory Bernardi’s new party, the Australian Conservatives. A match made in heaven, they announced. With their impressive infrastructure, mailing lists and personnel, and Bernardi’s national profile, how could they go wrong?

    Here’s how: by overestimating Bernardi’s appeal, and trading in their name for Bernardi’s, replacing “Family First” with “Australian Conservatives.” What a turn-off that name is. What a blunder.

    A person who is attracted to “Australian Conservatives” on the ballot needs to be either a Bernardi fan, a diehard Family First supporter aware of the amalgamation, or a Conservative with a big C and self-consciously so — paid up, combative and engaged in the political contest. The sort of people who watch Sky News after sunset. And there just aren’t very many of them.

    “Family First” was an inspired name for a political party. “Australian Conservatives” is a moniker from hell. (Yes, Britain’s Tories call themselves “Conservatives” but that, like our Liberal and Labor, is a long-established brand that transcends any remaining meaning of the word.)

    http://insidestory.org.au/whats-in-a-name-2/

  25. Thanks Maude Lynne, I feared that was the answer to my question.

    __________________

    poroti says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 3:40 pm
    don

    Ah calculus. Absolutely totally hated it when being taught it back in the day. However years later went back to it and loved it. Wonder WTF did I find so difficult ‘back in the day ‘ Actually the secret is the text book I came across it “spoke to me” . Found that with statistics as well. Looked at several that supposedly taught the same area,some left me thinking WTF are they saying while one or two made it seem so easy.

    ______________________

    Don’t forget that in the meantime you became smarter. You had learned by that time how to learn. And you were committed to learn.

    I went back to Uni as an adult to do some courses, Geography primarily, and the poor little first year out of high school kids did not have a hope compared with mature students. I wanted to do Geography since I have always loved maps. They just did not have the English skills that an older adult has.

    If I didn’t get a high mark in essays and research reports and exams I was disappointed. Earlier, as a teenager at Uni I was lucky to scrape through with a bare pass.

  26. BigD:


    I found calculus easier at Uni than at High School because it was dealt with as an infinite series at Uni and so I understood exactly what it was.

    This was early to mid 80s, is this still the case?

    You certainly do infinite sequences and series in NSW Advanced and Ext 1 courses, but rarely do you need that for calculus in HS Maths – about the only time is when you are doing Newton’s method for the approximation (to any given degree of accuracy) of the intersection of, for example, a function of x with the x axis.

    You also work with series when you do Mathematical Induction, a delightful part of the Ext 1 course. That and proving Trig identities were always my favourite topics in maths.They are, in many ways, like doing a cryptic crossword, now a favourite pastime for me.

    And certainly, if you do the theory of calculus in any depth, you are working with limits as delta (or h for Newton’s method) approaches zero. But that gets quickly shoved out of the way in favour of more interesting uses of calculus, such as areas and volumes and maxima and minima of functions.

  27. Confessions @ #175 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 3:54 pm

    Oh dear. Not just once but twice.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    James Comey illegally leaked classified documents to the press in order to generate a Special Council? Therefore, the Special Council was established based on an illegal act? Really, does everybody know what that means?

    Comey covers this in his book, “A Higher Loyalty”.

    As would be expected Comey is a mile ahead of trump in the ‘thinking’ aspect. trump is not a “reader” of anything much let alone a 200 page book.

    On Tuesday, May 16, I woke up at about 2:00 A.M. that morning, jolted awake by a thought: the president’s tweet changes my perspective on how to address our February 14, 2017, meeting, when he expressed his “hope” that I would drop an investigation of his former national security adviser, Mike Flynn.

    Though I had written an unclassified memo about the conversation, the FBI leadership and I had gotten stuck there because it would be my word against the president’s. We hadn’t given up on pursuing it, but instead had decided to hold it—and keep it away from the investigative team so they wouldn’t be influenced by the president.

    We could think about it more once the Department of Justice decided how they would supervise the investigations related to the Trump administration and Russia after the attorney general was recused. But this tweet about tapes changed everything, I thought, lying there in the dark. If there are tapes of my conversations with President Trump, there will be corroboration of the fact that he said he wanted me to drop the Flynn investigation. It will no longer be my word against his. If there is a tape, the president of the United States will be heard in the Oval Office telling me, “I hope you can let it go.”

    I lay in bed thinking through this delayed revelation. I could leave it alone, and hope the FBI leadership team saw what I saw in Trump’s tweet about tapes and that they would start pushing the Department of Justice to go get the tapes. Maybe the FBI would even urge Justice to appoint an independent prosecutor to pursue this. Maybe I could trust that the system would work.

    But I had trusted the system years earlier on the question of torture. Then, I had trusted the attorney general to carry our department’s concerns about torture policy to the White House, to a meeting I was excluded from, but
    nothing happened. No, I wasn’t going to make that mistake again. This time I could and would do something because, ironically, thanks to Donald Trump, I was a private citizen now.

    I trusted the FBI, but I didn’t trust the Department of Justice leadership under the current attorney general and deputy attorney general to do the right thing. Something was needed that might force them to do the right thing.

    Now that I was a private citizen,I could do something. I decided I would prompt a media story by revealing the president’s February 14 direction that I drop the Flynn investigation.

    That might force the Department of Justice to appoint a special prosecutor, who could then go get the tapes that Trump had tweeted about. And, although I was banned from FBI property, I had a copy of my unclassified memo about his request stored securely at home.

    Tuesday morning, after dawn, I contacted my good friend Dan Richman, a former prosecutor and now a professor at Columbia Law School. Dan had been giving me legal advice since my firing. I told him I was going to send him one unclassified memo and I wanted him to share the substance of the memo—but not the memo itself—with a reporter.

    If I do it myself, I thought, it will create a media frenzy—at my driveway,
    no less—and I will be hard-pressed to refuse follow-up comments. I would, of course, tell the truth if asked whether I played a part in it. I did. I had to.

    To be clear, this was not a “leak” of classified information no matter how many times politicians, political pundits, or the president call it that.

    A private citizen may legally share unclassified details of a conversation with the president with the press.

  28. Consider the following —

    Heavy chatter on the DH circuit concerning UFOs.

    Number of so called conspiracy nuts having been molested by brain eating but really stupid aliens multiplies exponentially.

    Whistle blower reveals that Government members are being treated for serious mental deficits.

    Daily Telegraph headlines mention Palilalia, Tourette Syndrome and Echolalia symptoms in the form of spoken, shouted and endlessly repeated “Shorten, Get Bill, Kill Bill, Shorten, Shorten …….. ” echoing through the talk shows our great nation.

    Steve, Eddie, Tracey, Virginia, Michael and many, many more apparently affected by this malignancy.

    Downloads of hit song Get Shorten 🎸 goes viral (WTF that means).

    Bill Shorten claims copyright and is measured for new wardrobe by Saville Row tailors.

    Bill Shorten is said to keep his new found wealth in very large socks at the bottom of his garden, guarded by the family cat.

    Shorten brand of underwear and his Pour Homme Elixir of Love 💋 listed on NY and HK stock exchanges.

    KayJay wakes up.

    Am I dead yet. NO ❗ Hurrah for me.

  29. “Then, last year, Family First merged with Liberal defector Cory Bernardi’s new party, the Australian Conservatives. A match made in heaven, they announced.”

    Maybe a match made somewhere with a warmer climate.

  30. Dave:

    You can pretty much discount anything that comes out of Trump’s mouth or tweets as total fabrications. The number of actual proven lies he’s told since taking office numbers (I believe) in the thousands, testament to his inability to be truthful about most things.

    And proof Trump doesn’t read is that he not only referred to Mueller as Special Council once, but did it twice. For a man who spends so much time tweeting about the Russia investigation you’d think by now he’d realise it’s Special Counsel.

    Love the excerpts from the Comey book btw, am thinking of buying it myself 🙂

  31. Re calculus, I can recommend the long series of books, ‘The Baroque Cycle’ by Neal Stephenson.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Baroque_Cycle
    Set in the late 16th and early 17th century, one of the protagonists is a friend of both Newton and Leibniz. Newton becomes completely consumed with proving he invented ‘the calculus’ and Leibniz stole it from him.

    It is generally considered Newton and Leibniz both invented calculus independently, at the same time.

    In it is depicted an excellent conversation with Newton where he indicates his idea for calculus, where he observed from a high bridge punts navigating a winding, serpentine river.

  32. John Reidy @ #193 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 5:14 pm

    Re calculus, I can recommend the long series of books, ‘The Baroque Cycle’ by Neal Stephenson.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Baroque_Cycle
    Set in the late 16th and early 17th century, one of the protagonists is a friend of both Newton and Leibniz. Newton becomes completely consumed with proving he invented ‘the calculus’ and Leibniz stole it from him.

    It is generally considered Newton and Leibniz both invented calculus independently, at the same time.

    In it is depicted an excellent conversation with Newton where he indicates his idea for calculus, where he observed from a high bridge punts navigating a winding, serpentine river.

    The Baroque Cycle was an excellent trilogy – the “prequel”, Cryptonomicon: not so much.

  33. dave @ #188 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 4:58 pm

    Confessions @ #175 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 3:54 pm

    Oh dear. Not just once but twice.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    James Comey illegally leaked classified documents to the press in order to generate a Special Council? Therefore, the Special Council was established based on an illegal act? Really, does everybody know what that means?

    Comey covers this in his book, “A Higher Loyalty”.

    As would be expected Comey is a mile ahead of trump in the ‘thinking’ aspect. trump is not a “reader” of anything much let alone a 200 page book.

    On Tuesday, May 16, I woke up at about 2:00 A.M. that morning, jolted awake by a thought: the president’s tweet changes my perspective on how to address our February 14, 2017, meeting, when he expressed his “hope” that I would drop an investigation of his former national security adviser, Mike Flynn.

    Though I had written an unclassified memo about the conversation, the FBI leadership and I had gotten stuck there because it would be my word against the president’s. We hadn’t given up on pursuing it, but instead had decided to hold it—and keep it away from the investigative team so they wouldn’t be influenced by the president.

    We could think about it more once the Department of Justice decided how they would supervise the investigations related to the Trump administration and Russia after the attorney general was recused. But this tweet about tapes changed everything, I thought, lying there in the dark. If there are tapes of my conversations with President Trump, there will be corroboration of the fact that he said he wanted me to drop the Flynn investigation. It will no longer be my word against his. If there is a tape, the president of the United States will be heard in the Oval Office telling me, “I hope you can let it go.”

    I lay in bed thinking through this delayed revelation. I could leave it alone, and hope the FBI leadership team saw what I saw in Trump’s tweet about tapes and that they would start pushing the Department of Justice to go get the tapes. Maybe the FBI would even urge Justice to appoint an independent prosecutor to pursue this. Maybe I could trust that the system would work.

    But I had trusted the system years earlier on the question of torture. Then, I had trusted the attorney general to carry our department’s concerns about torture policy to the White House, to a meeting I was excluded from, but
    nothing happened. No, I wasn’t going to make that mistake again. This time I could and would do something because, ironically, thanks to Donald Trump, I was a private citizen now.

    I trusted the FBI, but I didn’t trust the Department of Justice leadership under the current attorney general and deputy attorney general to do the right thing. Something was needed that might force them to do the right thing.

    Now that I was a private citizen,I could do something. I decided I would prompt a media story by revealing the president’s February 14 direction that I drop the Flynn investigation.

    That might force the Department of Justice to appoint a special prosecutor, who could then go get the tapes that Trump had tweeted about. And, although I was banned from FBI property, I had a copy of my unclassified memo about his request stored securely at home.

    Tuesday morning, after dawn, I contacted my good friend Dan Richman, a former prosecutor and now a professor at Columbia Law School. Dan had been giving me legal advice since my firing. I told him I was going to send him one unclassified memo and I wanted him to share the substance of the memo—but not the memo itself—with a reporter.

    If I do it myself, I thought, it will create a media frenzy—at my driveway,
    no less—and I will be hard-pressed to refuse follow-up comments. I would, of course, tell the truth if asked whether I played a part in it. I did. I had to.

    To be clear, this was not a “leak” of classified information no matter how many times politicians, political pundits, or the president call it that.

    A private citizen may legally share unclassified details of a conversation with the president with the press.

    It is becoming evident that Trump is not as bright as Nixon. I think he’ll “resign” when the Dems win the house in November.

  34. Fess – yeah the book is a good read. It moves along nicely and Comey comes across as thoughtful and very decent.

    At most trump takes up about 15% of the book, but in his life and career experience Comey is of course setting the scene about his experience with trump. He only worked for trump for 5 months.

    The situation with Hillary’s emails etc is covered in detail and that does put a different complexion on what he did and why he did it – IMO anyway.

    I’ll post several more extracts in the next day or so, but the following has a nice touch to it about Comey in his last meeting with Obama in the Oval Office –

    As the meeting broke up, my eyes fixed on the bowl of apples on the Oval Office coffee table. Because the president and Mrs. Obama were very health conscious—the First Lady had run a campaign in schools about exchanging junk food for fruits and vegetables—the apples had been a fixture of the Oval Office for years.

    I wasn’t entirely certain they were edible, but I once saw Chief of Staff Denis McDonough grab
    two at a time. He surely wasn’t eating plastic fruit replicas.

    My youngest daughter long ago had asked me to get her a presidential apple, and this was surely
    the last time the Oval Office, an apple, and I would ever be together.

    Now or never.

    Swipe an apple at the close of a meeting about Russian interference? So tacky.

    But fatherhood beats tacky. I scooped an apple. Nobody stopped me.

    I photographed it in the car and texted the picture to my daughter, delivering the product that evening. She let me taste a slice.

    Not plastic.

  35. “The committee,” said the 1985 report, “came to the conclusion that, if a decision were to be made on the future of the trade purely on animal welfare grounds, there is enough evidence to stop the trade. The trade is, in many respects, inimical to good animal welfare, and it is not in the interests of the animal to be transported to the Middle East for slaughter.”

    It went on to say that an immediate halt to the trade would be too “disruptive,” but said a long-term solution of phasing out live sheep exports in favour of exporting chilled or “boxed” meat must be pursued.

    It has been 33 years. That long-term solution has been repeatedly delayed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/21/33-years-on-a-long-term-solution-to-live-export-trade-remains-elusive

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