Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.
The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.
The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.
The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).
For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.
Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017
| Coalition seats | Labor seats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.0% | (0.6%) | Qld | CAPRICORNIA | HERBERT | Qld | (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| 0.0% | (0.6%) | Qld | FORDE | COX (CORANGAMITE) | Vic | (0.1%) | +3.2% |
| (0.7%) | NSW | GILMORE | COWAN | WA | (0.7%) | ||
| 0.0% | (-1.0%) | Qld | FLYNN | LONGMAN | Qld | (0.8%) | 0.0% |
| (1.1%) | NSW | ROBERTSON | LINDSAY | NSW | (1.1%) | ||
| (1.4%) | NSW | BANKS | GRIFFITH | Qld | (1.4%) | -0.2% | |
| 0.0% | (1.6%) | Qld | PETRIE | MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) | Vic | (1.5%) | +0.1% |
| +0.2% | (1.8%) | Qld | DICKSON | BRADDON | Tas | (1.6%) | -0.6% |
| (2.1%) | WA | HASLUCK | DUNKLEY | Vic | (1.7%) | +3.2% | |
| (2.3%) | NSW | PAGE | MACQUARIE | NSW | (2.2%) | ||
| +1.1% | (2.5%) | Vic | LA TROBE | ISAACS | Vic | (2.4%) | -3.3% |
| +7.6% | (2.8%) | SA | BOOTHBY | EDEN-MONARO | NSW | (2.9%) | |
| +2.0% | (3.2%) | Vic | CHISHOLM | PERTH | WA | (3.3%) | |
| +4.3% | (3.3%) | SA | MAYO | RICHMOND | NSW | (4%) | |
| +0.0% | (3.4%) | Qld | DAWSON | LYONS | Tas | (4%) | +1.7% |
| 0.0% | (3.4%) | Qld | BONNER | BENDIGO | Vic | (4%) | +0.2% |
| (3.6%) | WA | SWAN | MORETON | Qld | (4.1%) | +0.0% | |
| (3.6%) | WA | PEARCE | HOTHAM | Vic | (4.3%) | -3.2% | |
| -0.0% | (3.9%) | Qld | LEICHHARDT | DOBELL | NSW | (4.8%) | |
| -1.9% | (4.1%) | Vic | CASEY | JAGAJAGA | Vic | (5.1%) | +0.4% |
| (4.7%) | NSW | REID | McEWEN | Vic | (5.4%) | -2.4% | |
| +0.4% | (4.8%) | Vic | INDI | BASS | Tas | (5.4%) | -0.7% |
| +1.2% | (5.7%) | SA | STURT | LILLEY | Qld | (5.8%) | +0.5% |
| +0.1% | (6%) | Qld | BRISBANE | SOLOMON | NT | (6.1%) | +0.1% |
| (6.1%) | WA | STIRLING | GREENWAY | NSW | (6.3%) | ||
| +0.5% | (6.2%) | Vic | DEAKIN | BURT | WA | (7.1%) | |
| -0.1% | (6.7%) | Qld | KENNEDY | BALLARAT | Vic | (7.5%) | +0.1% |
| (6.8%) | WA | CANNING | FREMANTLE | WA | (7.5%) | ||
| 0.0% | (7.1%) | Qld | BOWMAN | PARRAMATTA | NSW | (7.7%) | |
| -0.7% | (7.1%) | Vic | FLINDERS | BLAIR | Qld | (8.2%) | -0.7% |
| -1.2% | (7.4%) | Vic | ASTON | LINGIARI | NT | (8.2%) | -0.2% |
| +1.6% | (7.6%) | Vic | MONASH (McMILLAN) | WERRIWA | NSW | (8.2%) | |
| -2.9% | (7.7%) | Vic | MENZIES | HINDMARSH | SA | (8.2%) | +0.7% |
| +0.0% | (8.2%) | Qld | WIDE BAY | BARTON | NSW | (8.3%) | |
| -0.1% | (8.4%) | Qld | HINKLER | MACARTHUR | NSW | (8.3%) | |
| -3.5% | (8.6%) | SA | GREY | KINGSFORD SMITH | NSW | (8.6%) | |
| -0.1% | (9%) | Qld | RYAN | CORIO | Vic | (8.6%) | -1.4% |
| +0.1% | (9.1%) | Vic | WANNON | BEAN | ACT | (8.9%) | New |
| +0.1% | (9.2%) | Qld | FISHER | ADELAIDE | SA | (8.9%) | +2.1% |
| (9.3%) | NSW | HUGHES | OXLEY | Qld | (9%) | 0.0% | |
| 0.0% | (9.6%) | Qld | WRIGHT | MARIBYRNONG | Vic | (9.5%) | -2.8% |
| (9.7%) | NSW | BENNELONG | HOLT | Vic | (9.9%) | -4.3% | |
| -0.6% | (10.1%) | Vic | HIGGINS | SHORTLAND | NSW | (9.9%) | |
| (10.2%) | NSW | HUME | PATERSON | NSW | (10.7%) | ||
| -0.0% | (10.9%) | Qld | FAIRFAX | FRANKLIN | Tas | (10.7%) | +0.0% |
| (11%) | WA | MOORE | MAKIN | SA | (10.8%) | +0.1% | |
| (11.1%) | WA | DURACK | RANKIN | Qld | (11.3%) | 0.0% | |
| (11.1%) | WA | TANGNEY | BRAND | WA | (11.4%) | ||
| (11.1%) | NSW | WARRINGAH | FENNER | ACT | (11.8%) | -2.1% | |
| +0.2% | (11.3%) | Qld | FADDEN | McMAHON | NSW | (12.1%) | |
| (11.6%) | NSW | LYNE | HUNTER | NSW | (12.5%) | ||
| 0.0% | (11.6%) | Qld | McPHERSON | CANBERRA | ACT | (12.9%) | +4.4% |
| (11.8%) | NSW | CALARE | CUNNINGHAM | NSW | (13.3%) | ||
| -0.2% | (12.4%) | Vic | GOLDSTEIN | KINGSTON | SA | (13.5%) | +0.1% |
| (12.6%) | WA | FORREST | WHITLAM | NSW | (13.7%) | ||
| (12.6%) | NSW | COWPER | NEWCASTLE | NSW | (13.8%) | ||
| -0.8% | (12.6%) | Vic | KOOYONG | LALOR | Vic | (14.3%) | +0.9% |
| (13.6%) | NSW | NORTH SYDNEY | GELLIBRAND | Vic | (14.7%) | -3.6% | |
| +6.9% | (14.4%) | SA | BARKER | SYDNEY | NSW | (15.3%) | |
| -0.4% | (14.6%) | Qld | MONCRIEFF | CLARK (DENISON) | Tas | (15.3%) | -0.0% |
| (15%) | WA | O’CONNOR | BRUCE | Vic | (15.8%) | +11.7% | |
| (15.1%) | NSW | PARKES | MELBOURNE | Vic | (17%) | +0.4% | |
| 0.0% | (15.3%) | Qld | GROOM | FOWLER | NSW | (17.5%) | |
| (15.4%) | NSW | COOK | WATSON | NSW | (17.6%) | ||
| (15.7%) | NSW | MACKELLAR | SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) | SA | (17.9%) | +0.8% | |
| (16.4%) | NSW | NEW ENGLAND | GORTON | Vic | (18.3%) | -1.2% | |
| (16.4%) | NSW | RIVERINA | CHIFLEY | NSW | (19.2%) | ||
| (16.4%) | NSW | BEROWRA | BLAXLAND | NSW | (19.5%) | ||
| 0.0% | (17.5%) | Qld | MARANOA | CALWELL | Vic | (20%) | +2.2% |
| (17.7%) | NSW | WENTWORTH | SCULLIN | Vic | (20.4%) | +3.1% | |
| (17.8%) | NSW | MITCHELL | FRASER | Vic | (20.9%) | New | |
| -0.3% | (18.1%) | Vic | GIPPSLAND | WILLS | Vic | (21.7%) | +0.5% |
| -1.4% | (19.9%) | Vic | MALLEE | BATMAN | Vic | (22.2%) | +0.5% |
| (20.5%) | NSW | FARRER | GRAYNDLER | NSW | (22.4%) | ||
| (20.7%) | WA | CURTIN | |||||
| (21%) | NSW | BRADFIELD | |||||
| -2.5% | (22.4%) | Vic | NICHOLLS (MURRAY) |
Rudd had many faults. But he was correct about the Gs. He really understood how toxic they can be, how inimical to Labor’s purposes they actually are.
lizzie @ #98 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:02 pm
I’d love someone to list these supposed ‘attacks’ and why they are unjustified.
Rex
I did mention Labor tearing itself apart I did not name actors because with Labor there good people on both sides of that division. Rudd was not good on some things on others he was.
Compared to the LNP he was streets ahead. Labor would have lasted longer if they had come to an arrangement that could keep Rudd as PM but let Gillard do far more of administration and policy setting.
However no matter the division in Labor the Greens have no blame in that.
Just as they have no blame in the policies the LNP pursues.
I get sick of the argument that the Greens gave the opportunity for the energy wars. They did not.
The only reason we have had energy wars is because we have had a bunch of fantasists doing policy on one side and accusing everyone else who listens to evidence as uneconomic illiterates.
That includes media not just Murdoch and you will note I said media not Murdoch. Chris Ullmann is an example of why Gillard did not recover from the Carbon Tax remark.
The media was all short term label to boost the LNP fact free policy. An ETS is always a trading market just like the stock market and the failure of the media in this narrative is still the biggest bit of propaganda disgrace up there with Fox boosting Trump this country has seen.
briefly @ #99 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:05 pm
Briefly, once again you’re projecting.
Rex Douglas @ #102 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:08 pm
They’re unjustified because the LNP is the real enemy, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend. You don’t attack your friends; you help them win against your mutual enemy.
The heartening thing is that voters have seen through the Gs too. They know they are hostile to Labor’s candidates, programs and goals. Labor-positive voters were once susceptible to G messages. But this is no longer the case. G campaigning repels Labor-positive voters and is slowly leading to decay of the G base as well.
The Gs have a creeping existential problem. Their core supporters are ageing and fading away and are not being replaced with new, younger members. This is also true of the LNP which is almost a entirely made up of antique boomers. They stand in contrast to Labor where young people continue to join in strong numbers.
The Gs have become a party that serves no purpose other than the pursuit of power for its own sake. They cannot last long if this is all they bring to public space.
Guytar,
The so called Nobel prize for economics is not awarded by the Nobel committee but by the Swedish Bankers. I am always very cautious about accepting any statement from that lot
guytaur @ #103 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:09 pm
I would think the media and the Opposition would’ve had a field day with that scenario. 😆
Dovey
Yes you have good reason for that. Thus my pointing out the Sydney Peace Prize.
I have no doubts about the good people who have been given that award.
Last year it was Black Lives Matter. Its been Mary Robinson in the past.
However I will give the Swedish bankers this much. At least they know to highlight equality is the answer not the neo liberal trickle down economics. Just as the economic magazine that gave Keating his World Best Treasurer award did the same for Wayne Swan.
The fact that a conservative bunch gives a progressive an award for competence is recognition they are not completely out of touch with reality. They can acknowledge good policy when they see it.
Is the current government progressing well with the “Agile and Flexible” program outlined, it now seem, so long ago ❓ 😍
Rex
Maybe maybe not. However we do know that they had a field day with what we saw.
One things for certain – all Labor people should be urging for the re-election of Mark Butler as ALP President.
“”They’re unjustified because the LNP is the real enemy, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend. You don’t attack your friends; you help them win against your mutual enemy.””
Now that is ONE profound statement, if you want to change to a Labor government, vote for Labor in BOTH Houses.
End of story!.
guytaur @ #114 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:22 pm
Thanks to Rudds actions.
Rex, so nobody wanted a RC bar the Greens?
Gimme a break
From Adele Ferguson: Mark Bishop has four words to say about the banking royal commission: “I told you so.”
Bishop was the chairman of a landmark Senate committee into the Commonwealth Bank and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission which released a report in June 2014 calling for a royal commission on the basis the regulator was too timid and couldn’t be trusted to do the job itself.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/people-are-still-crying-out-for-justice-perhaps-now-someone-will-listen-20180420-p4zau1.html
The Greens were just one voice crying out for action. Trying to to take all the credit just makes them look silly, something they have a unique ability to do.
1934
Nope if you want a Labor government vote Greens 1 and give your preference to Labor works just as well.
We do not have a first past the post system and should stop talking as if we did.
1934pc @ #117 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:28 pm
If you want to end torture of asylum seekers in offshore internments, don’t vote Lib-Lab
If you want to end torture of animals in the live export trade don’t vote Lib-Lab.
guytaur @ #120 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:30 pm
You’ve seen the light !
guytaur says:
Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 12:30 pm
1934
Nope if you want a Labor government vote Greens 1 and give your preference to Labor works just as well.
A vote against Labor is a vote against Labor. Making voting detours cannot possibly help Labor. The G claims are just a ruse. The single best way to defeat the LNP is to vote Labor.
guytaur says:
Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 12:30 pm
If you want to help the LNP, vote G. It’s that simple.
I was just thinking…
The best way to scupper the NEG is to inform Abbott and friends of how easy it would be to set lower emissions targets under it 🙂
You know it makes sense…
briefly
When the Greens get enough numbers to become a government in their own right you will be arguing exactly the same case as the Greens.
No matter what your opinion facts are facts. You can vote Green and get Labor as the government by directing your preference. We ARE NOT a first past the post system.
Unless you can show the Greens polling suddenly raising to the degree that they will become the government instead of Labor you have no case against encouraging those voting Green to preference Labor.
The reason Guiliano had joined Trump’s legal team is obviously so that he and Trump can both claim attorney/client privilege, not only about matters they may discuss in future, but in matters they have already discussed.
Arguing that the latter is covered by privilege could take up years of the judicial system’s time, whether the eventual ruling is for or against.
It’s been a long time since Guiliano was a proper lawyer, but I believe he was once a US Attorney for New York, prosecuting Mafia and corporate crooks, and would therefore know all the tricks and delaying tactics.
Kay Jay
They have nailed the Flexible part but the Agility has suffered.
What are the Greens talking past today?
Yep, during the 1980s.
KayJay @ #110 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 9:22 am
They have been very flexible in taking credit for the RC this week.
Flexible with the truth that is!!! 🙂
Zoidlord, from your link:
Imbruvica’s makers, Janssen and Pharmacyclics, have now gotten approval to sell four different tablets of varying strengths: 140mg, 280mg, 420mg, and 560mg. But the new pills will all be the same price—around $400 each—even the 140mg dose pill. The makers will stop selling the old, cheaper 140mg pill within three months, according to a report by the Washington Post.
Quite apart from the get rich quick price gouging, which is criminal, the patients could do what many others do with other pills priced the same way –
They could buy the 560 gm pills and cut them into quarters. A drop from $400 per pill to $100 per pill, while highway robbery in any case, is still a good saving to make.
I await attempts to disprove Whish-Wilsons timeline.
Lib-Lab mustn’t be allowed to re-write history.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 12:54 pm
I await attempts to disprove Whish-Wilsons timeline.
Lib-Lab mustn’t be allowed to re-write history.
Nonsense. You will wait a long time.
I have no idea what Whish-Wilsons timeline is, nor do I care, but it is up to him to prove it, not for others to disprove it.
I looked back on why the Rudd govt rejected a Bill of Rights and found this, an instant reminder of what has been happening under the Dutton regime of “keeping Australia safe”.
http://treatyrepublic.net/content/rudd-government-rejects-human-rights-charter
Bushfire Bill @ #124 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 12:40 pm
They might be stupid enough to try and run that claim, but it wouldn’t hold up.
ADAM CREIGHTON
John Howard has declared it too early to tell whether the Hayne royal commission will turn out to be worthwhile.
Typical comment from the rodent.He probably was another Liberal rorter.
@kevinandrewsmp says the Turnbull Government has lost the confidence of the Australian people and is “seen as drifting without clear direction or purpose.”
At least one RWNJ admits the truth.
briefly @ #121 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 9:39 am
This all or nothing mentality is bullsh!t.
No Party in Australia can can form Government without preferences from voters who prefer someone else first.
Labor are the only Party that can form Government in their own right but in a close run election where no one gets a majority it is only right that they try and gain the support of the cross benches to form a majority.
Being in a minority position it is only right that Labor negotiate agreements where it is clearly defined what areas Labor is willing to concede ground on and where it will not.
In this situation Labor should be doing everything it can to try and put together a progressive Government which rightly, through the numbers, they would dominate but not completely control.
🙂
lizzie
One of the reasons I have a great distaste for Carr. He loved his 2GB chats about Laura Norda.
‘Maybe they’ll send out the US Marshals for him’: Stormy Daniels attorney tells Bill Maher Trump must show his face in court
Michael Avenatti, attorney for adult film star Stormy Daniels is eager to see President Donald Trump be dragged into a Los Angeles court room as their lawsuit continues to move forward.
“The problem is, he’s trusted a moron with his inner-most secrets,” Avenatti said of Trump’s attorney Michael Cohen. “And the problem is that he has surrounded himself in his adult life with people that are incompetent and the chickens are going to come home to roost.”
“I would agree with that, Bill, but I think that Michael Cohen knows where all of the bodies are buried,” Avenatti said. “And I think he’s going to sing like a canary. Like you cannot — Bill, here’s the problem — no I know he’s going to fold. Because, here’s the problem: when you have a fixer you need two things at least, you need a guy that’s tough and you need a guy that’s smart. This guy is neither tough nor smart.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/maybe-theyll-send-us-marshals-stormy-daniels-attorney-tells-bill-maher-trump-must-show-face-court/
One of the articles in BKs dawn patrol this morning (happy birthday all),compared this government’s response this week to what Howard might have done.
By this stage Howard would have seen the popular support for the RC and taken the opportunity and run with it, despite his previous opinion.
But this government probably won’t do that and I think the reason is Shorten has them completely spooked. Not necessarily because of what he has done as opposition leader (though that is a factor),but simply because of who he is, an ex trade union leader.
The Liberals fear of unions and union officials seems to drive all of their responses in media interviews.
They seem to spend more time thinking about what a Shorten led government would do rather than governing themselves.
Regarding Howard, now he is not in politics he is showing his true self.
Our local MP Ann Sudmalis has put out the story that she put together a 4 page dossier about the banks, handed it to the Government, and the next day the Royal Commission was announced. She claims she was the catalyst for the RC !
Full ep of today’s Real Time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksAWDkUEZQE
Outside Left
I’m thinking…..
Confessions says: Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 1:49 pm
Full ep of today’s Real Time:
**************************************
Thanks Confessions 🙂
@Don
The problem is it’s not just a simple $400 here or there, these patients need daily doses most likely for a long time, that is why it is said to cost over $100K for a year just these pills.
Not to mention other fees or operations, hospital care, transport, etc that US patients need to fork out for.
Because they don’t have same hospital system as we do with Medicare and PBS.
Don’t be an apologist for the makers of these pills.
Coming from experience who worked in a factory making health care supplements, they do make abit of profit.
Outside Left
Oh to have been a fly on the wall in the Turnbull office when the Sudmalis dossier dropped.
Imagine the frantic calls to Cabinet ministers, the emergency meetings, the weeping junior staffers as they confronted the reality that was about the engulf them, the hum of the shredders and the deletion of social media accounts …
The whole house of cards brought down by the Member for Gilmore.
Outside Left @ #140 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 1:47 pm
Of course, because nobody was even talking about misconduct within the financial sector before she wrote that dossier. Wasn’t even on the radar!
ar
Yes, who knew? I mean just look at this Crikey Headline . No wonder the boss cocky resigned.
Oh, did I mention the article was from 2006. I’m sure The Rodent and his Hammock Dweller took firm action at the time though.
phoenixRed:
Watching the interview with Avenetti he’s either cocksure his legal strategy is going to pay dividends, crazy brave for making such statements of surety on national TV, or totally full of shite and spinning like a top for his client!
Confessions
In the US there is a seemingly endless queue of people willing to do whatever it takes to get their 15 minutes of fame. This guy might be in the queue.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/kangaroo-dies-in-chinese-zoo-after-visitors-throw-rocks/9682220
Horrendous story out of China where Zoo visitors have thrown rocks at a kangaroo and subsequently killing her.