Next federal election pendulum (provisional)

A pendulum for the next federal election, assuming new draft boundaries in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT are adopted as is.

Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.

The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.

The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.

The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).

For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.

Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017

Coalition seats Labor seats
+0.0% (0.6%) Qld CAPRICORNIA HERBERT Qld (0.0%) 0.0%
0.0% (0.6%) Qld FORDE COX (CORANGAMITE) Vic (0.1%) +3.2%
(0.7%) NSW GILMORE COWAN WA (0.7%)
0.0% (-1.0%) Qld FLYNN LONGMAN Qld (0.8%) 0.0%
(1.1%) NSW ROBERTSON LINDSAY NSW (1.1%)
(1.4%) NSW BANKS GRIFFITH Qld (1.4%) -0.2%
0.0% (1.6%) Qld PETRIE MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) Vic (1.5%) +0.1%
+0.2% (1.8%) Qld DICKSON BRADDON Tas (1.6%) -0.6%
(2.1%) WA HASLUCK DUNKLEY Vic (1.7%) +3.2%
(2.3%) NSW PAGE MACQUARIE NSW (2.2%)
+1.1% (2.5%) Vic LA TROBE ISAACS Vic (2.4%) -3.3%
+7.6% (2.8%) SA BOOTHBY EDEN-MONARO NSW (2.9%)
+2.0% (3.2%) Vic CHISHOLM PERTH WA (3.3%)
+4.3% (3.3%) SA MAYO RICHMOND NSW (4%)
+0.0% (3.4%) Qld DAWSON LYONS Tas (4%) +1.7%
0.0% (3.4%) Qld BONNER BENDIGO Vic (4%) +0.2%
(3.6%) WA SWAN MORETON Qld (4.1%) +0.0%
(3.6%) WA PEARCE HOTHAM Vic (4.3%) -3.2%
-0.0% (3.9%) Qld LEICHHARDT DOBELL NSW (4.8%)
-1.9% (4.1%) Vic CASEY JAGAJAGA Vic (5.1%) +0.4%
(4.7%) NSW REID McEWEN Vic (5.4%) -2.4%
+0.4% (4.8%) Vic INDI BASS Tas (5.4%) -0.7%
+1.2% (5.7%) SA STURT LILLEY Qld (5.8%) +0.5%
+0.1% (6%) Qld BRISBANE SOLOMON NT (6.1%) +0.1%
(6.1%) WA STIRLING GREENWAY NSW (6.3%)
+0.5% (6.2%) Vic DEAKIN BURT WA (7.1%)
-0.1% (6.7%) Qld KENNEDY BALLARAT Vic (7.5%) +0.1%
(6.8%) WA CANNING FREMANTLE WA (7.5%)
0.0% (7.1%) Qld BOWMAN PARRAMATTA NSW (7.7%)
-0.7% (7.1%) Vic FLINDERS BLAIR Qld (8.2%) -0.7%
-1.2% (7.4%) Vic ASTON LINGIARI NT (8.2%) -0.2%
+1.6% (7.6%) Vic MONASH (McMILLAN) WERRIWA NSW (8.2%)
-2.9% (7.7%) Vic MENZIES HINDMARSH SA (8.2%) +0.7%
+0.0% (8.2%) Qld WIDE BAY BARTON NSW (8.3%)
-0.1% (8.4%) Qld HINKLER MACARTHUR NSW (8.3%)
-3.5% (8.6%) SA GREY KINGSFORD SMITH NSW (8.6%)
-0.1% (9%) Qld RYAN CORIO Vic (8.6%) -1.4%
+0.1% (9.1%) Vic WANNON BEAN ACT (8.9%) New
+0.1% (9.2%) Qld FISHER ADELAIDE SA (8.9%) +2.1%
(9.3%) NSW HUGHES OXLEY Qld (9%) 0.0%
0.0% (9.6%) Qld WRIGHT MARIBYRNONG Vic (9.5%) -2.8%
(9.7%) NSW BENNELONG HOLT Vic (9.9%) -4.3%
-0.6% (10.1%) Vic HIGGINS SHORTLAND NSW (9.9%)
(10.2%) NSW HUME PATERSON NSW (10.7%)
-0.0% (10.9%) Qld FAIRFAX FRANKLIN Tas (10.7%) +0.0%
(11%) WA MOORE MAKIN SA (10.8%) +0.1%
(11.1%) WA DURACK RANKIN Qld (11.3%) 0.0%
(11.1%) WA TANGNEY BRAND WA (11.4%)
(11.1%) NSW WARRINGAH FENNER ACT (11.8%) -2.1%
+0.2% (11.3%) Qld FADDEN McMAHON NSW (12.1%)
(11.6%) NSW LYNE HUNTER NSW (12.5%)
0.0% (11.6%) Qld McPHERSON CANBERRA ACT (12.9%) +4.4%
(11.8%) NSW CALARE CUNNINGHAM NSW (13.3%)
-0.2% (12.4%) Vic GOLDSTEIN KINGSTON SA (13.5%) +0.1%
(12.6%) WA FORREST WHITLAM NSW (13.7%)
(12.6%) NSW COWPER NEWCASTLE NSW (13.8%)
-0.8% (12.6%) Vic KOOYONG LALOR Vic (14.3%) +0.9%
(13.6%) NSW NORTH SYDNEY GELLIBRAND Vic (14.7%) -3.6%
+6.9% (14.4%) SA BARKER SYDNEY NSW (15.3%)
-0.4% (14.6%) Qld MONCRIEFF CLARK (DENISON) Tas (15.3%) -0.0%
(15%) WA O’CONNOR BRUCE Vic (15.8%) +11.7%
(15.1%) NSW PARKES MELBOURNE Vic (17%) +0.4%
0.0% (15.3%) Qld GROOM FOWLER NSW (17.5%)
(15.4%) NSW COOK WATSON NSW (17.6%)
(15.7%) NSW MACKELLAR SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) SA (17.9%) +0.8%
(16.4%) NSW NEW ENGLAND GORTON Vic (18.3%) -1.2%
(16.4%) NSW RIVERINA CHIFLEY NSW (19.2%)
(16.4%) NSW BEROWRA BLAXLAND NSW (19.5%)
0.0% (17.5%) Qld MARANOA CALWELL Vic (20%) +2.2%
(17.7%) NSW WENTWORTH SCULLIN Vic (20.4%) +3.1%
(17.8%) NSW MITCHELL FRASER Vic (20.9%) New
-0.3% (18.1%) Vic GIPPSLAND WILLS Vic (21.7%) +0.5%
-1.4% (19.9%) Vic MALLEE BATMAN Vic (22.2%) +0.5%
(20.5%) NSW FARRER GRAYNDLER NSW (22.4%)
(20.7%) WA CURTIN
(21%) NSW BRADFIELD
-2.5% (22.4%) Vic NICHOLLS (MURRAY)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”

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  1. The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two.

    Its our turn for some favourable electoral circumstances. The Coalition got SA but Labor NEED to win the federal election!

  2. Editorial Sat Paper
    Time warped

    It is important, though, to remember Hunt’s ministry – his responsibilities to health. It is as health minister that Hunt refuses to condemn gay conversion therapy. It is as health minister that he pretends the torment of young queer people in the name of religious doctrine is a freedom of speech issue. In other countries, this kind of psychological abuse is illegal. In Australia, the health minister entertains it on national radio.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Between the NEG and the banking royal commission there is much to peruse today.

    Peter Hartcher says that the NEG is ripe for Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and their acolytes to do their very best to smash it to pieces. A good spray.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-builds-new-tower-for-abbott-to-smash-to-pieces-20180420-p4zaui.html
    Peter Hannam writes that Friday’s pause in the climate wars may turn out to be a phony peace before skirmishes break out anew.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/phony-peace-challenges-to-energy-plan-sent-back-to-modelling-board-20180420-p4zatf.html
    The head of the expert board advising the federal Coalition on its signature energy plan says it would not be a “big drama” for the electricity industry if a future Labor government enforced far stronger cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-coalition-push-for-national-energy-guarantee-blocked-by-labor-states-20180420-p4zap9.html
    The Victorian energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio has written to the Energy Security Board asking for new detailed analysis to be provided on the national energy guarantee, as the stand off between the Turnbull government and the states over energy policy shifts into its decisive phase.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/20/victoria-demands-new-detailed-analysis-on-neg-after-coag-meeting
    Tony Wright rips into the “clearly panicked” Morrison for taking the Australian public as fools with his ridiculous comments on the banking royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/does-royal-commission-turncoat-scott-morrison-really-think-the-public-is-so-dim-20180420-p4zarf.html
    The wrongdoing uncovered by the royal commission forces bank heads to admit their opposition to the inquiry was a mistake.
    https://outline.com/mB3WFU
    Rachel Clun tells us how Morrison changed his tune on the banking royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-scott-morrison-changed-his-tune-on-the-banking-royal-commission-20180420-p4zaoa.html
    Elizabeth Knight calls for more heads to roll at AMP. It’s mea culpa just doesn’t cut it, she says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/amp-s-mea-culpa-doesn-t-cut-it-more-heads-need-to-roll-20180420-p4zaqj.html
    Adele Ferguson’s piece is headlined “People are still crying out for justice, perhaps now someone will listen”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/people-are-still-crying-out-for-justice-perhaps-now-someone-will-listen-20180420-p4zau1.html
    The SMH editorial says that the royal commission has achieved spectacular results and justified its creation. It laments that venerable institutions – blue chips, every one of them – have behaved with the morals of alley cats, preying on the weak and, unbelievable as it sounds, pilfering even from the dead.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/inquiry-nails-the-banks-and-the-government-20180420-p4zatd.html
    With daily Royal Commission revelations, Dr Lee Duffield says the cat is out of the bag about how Big Money has been running their institutions. He says this week’s massive attention on the Commonwealth Bank and AMP might also stir up demands for real reform of a financial system that started compromising itself after they brought in privatisation and deregulation.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-fat-cat-is-out-of-the-bag-time-to-reform-the-whole-banking-system,11418
    The Australia Institute’s Ben Oquist reports on how the appetite for the major corporate tax cuts has recently changed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/revenue-more-important-than-tax-cuts-for-business-government-and-society-20180420-p4zate.html
    And Fergus Hunter writes that crossbench senators with the power to kill off Coalition’s company tax cuts have warned a string of damning revelations out of the banking royal commission undermines Turnbull’s flagship policy.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/royal-commission-revelations-could-harm-support-for-the-turnbull-government-s-company-tax-cuts-20180420-p4zarx.html
    Michael West doesn’t think the banks will really change their culture.
    https://outline.com/8e2snE
    The AFR opens up on the remarkable hypocrisy on display at the AMP.
    https://outline.com/vZDwYq
    Jack Waterford says the banks have squandered their political credit and wonders whether the Turnbull government is in a death spiral and is simply unable to adapt to opportunities may well be settled over the week ahead. This is an excellent essay.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/banks-squander-their-political-credit-20180420-p4zas8.html
    Rod Myer reports on how ANZ ignored the fact that a financial advice firm had failed scrutiny from ASIC and offered some of its advisors up to $150,000 each in incentives to come and work for it.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/20/anz-offered-150000-adviser-asic/
    This is what could be in front of the financial industry.
    https://outline.com/E34z2X
    If there is such a thing as a capital crime in economics, it is Donald Trump’s exorbitant fiscal stimulus at the top of the cycle. The effects are entirely pernicious.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-trump-s-hair-raising-level-of-debt-could-bring-us-all-crashing-down-20180420-p4zank.html
    Karen Middleton says that Morrison’s plan to frame the coming budget as responsible investment was derailed this week by conflicting government messages.
    https://outline.com/8e2snE
    Paul Bongiorno opines that Turnbull’s home fires will keep during during his absence overseas.
    https://outline.com/BWRwgT
    Nassim Khadem on shady accountants and a rapacious ATO.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/when-money-goes-missing-on-the-way-to-the-ato-20180419-p4zamb.html
    Schools, universities and the ATAR system are driving students away from vital science, maths and technology subjects, according to chief scientist Alan Finkel, who has strongly defended the importance of STEM in a report to the country’s education ministers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stem-review-schools-and-universities-are-sending-the-wrong-signals-to-students-chief-scientist-finds-20180420-p4zasn.html
    If the government really values the safety of older people, it would rewrite the Aged Care Act from scratch writes Sarah Russell.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/20/the-new-aged-care-watchdog-is-like-shifting-the-deckchairs-on-the-titanic
    Aldi ramps up the pressure on Colesworths.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/aiming-for-richer-shoppers-aldi-to-stay-a-pain-for-coles-and-woolies-20180420-p4zase.html
    In the “Only in America Department” the Democratic Party sues Russia and Trump, blaming election loss on collusion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democratic-party-sues-russia-and-trump-blaming-election-loss-on-collusion-20180421-p4zavb.html
    Peter van Onselen doesn’t think the upcoming budget will be filled with goodies.
    https://outline.com/uSYNCh
    Now Centrelink is threatening Australians with welfare debts to pay up or pay interest.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/20/centrelink-threatens-australians-with-welfare-debts-to-pay-up-or-pay-interest
    Dennis Shanahan says Turnbull is weighed down by external factors that will make it almost impossible for him to reassert his authority and make space for a recovery of spirit before the winter parliamentary break.
    https://outline.com/uKVeMb
    The only argument offered for Australia’s harsh refugee policies is that it stops others getting on boats — but is that morally acceptable?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/morally-australia-cannot-rely-on-deterrence-to-justify-its-harsh-refugee-policies,11417
    So we’re going to have Queen Camilla!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prince-charles-approved-as-next-head-of-commonwealth-20180421-p4zav9.html
    Julia Baird on how Muslim women are copping hatred from both sides.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/veiled-threats-muslim-women-cop-hate-from-all-sides-20180420-p4zaqg.html
    I couldn’t let a week go by without Mehajer story. Now he’s trying to get his bankruptcy order overturned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/salim-mehajer-launches-court-bid-to-overturn-bankruptcy-20180420-p4zaqn.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Two absolute shockers from David Rowe!


    A great contribution from Mark Davis on recent royal commissions.

    Paul Zanetti with Turnbull’s sleeping problem.

    Matt Golding and banking stocks.

    Mark Knight on the Victorian firefighting saga.

    And here’s his take on the banking royal commission.

    Sean Leahy returns to the oval office.

    David Pope with a beauty as Turnbull and Morrison survey the inevitable.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Lots more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-april-21-2018-20180420-h0z1yp.html

  4. Paula Matthewson gets it about The Greens:

    The NEG is by no means a perfect policy – it’s more like a camel created by a committee that was trying to build a racehorse. But it’s better than nothing, because doing nothing will continue the uncertainty in the energy market that has prevented investors from building the energy projects needed to bring electricity prices down.

    But we could end up with nothing, if the various political players get their way. At one end of the spectrum, the Greens have called the NEG a ‘dog’ because it doesn’t cut greenhouse emissions deeply or quickly enough.

    The Greens’ position echoes its opposition to Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme. If the minor party had worked with PM Rudd to implement the scheme instead of taking the moral high ground on climate action, there would have been less reason for Mr Rudd to be dumped, and perhaps even less for Tony Abbott to replace Malcolm Turnbull as opposition leader at the time.

    It’s tempting to ponder whether Australia would be a very different place today if not for that decision by the Greens.

    Not only did it set off the chain of events that led to two party leaders being rolled, it created the opportunity for Mr Abbott (assisted by strategist Peta Credlin) to transform climate policy from a mostly bipartisan affair into a partisan political weapon.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/04/20/national-energy-guarantee-agreement/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%2020180421

  5. Julian RöpckeVerified account@JulianRoepcke
    1h1 hour ago
    Two full weeks since the #DoumaGasMassacre, one full week since the @OPCW is in Damascus.
    But nobody investigates anything because #Russia is blocking the probe.
    #PutinAtWar

    :large

  6. #BringThemHere‏ @SarahRubyWrites · 17h17 hours ago

    You know what I find really frustrating?
    A refugee single mother with a degree in pure mathematics working as a kitchen-hand.
    She worked as a maths teacher in her country of origin.
    Please don’t try to tell me Australia isn’t racist when women like this cry at my desk.

  7. Eight months after a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville ended in the death of a counterprotester, the loose collection of disaffected young white men known as the alt-right is in disarray.

    The problems have been mounting: lawsuits and arrests, fundraising difficulties, tepid recruitment, widespread infighting, fierce counterprotests and banishment on social media platforms. Taken together, they’ve exhausted even some of the staunchest members.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/imploding-lawsuits-fundraising-troubles-trailer-park-brawls-has-the-alt-right-peaked/2018/04/20/0a2fb786-39a6-11e8-9c0a-85d477d9a226_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1fac1268de3e

    And apparently trailer park brawls are a feature of the implosion. 🙂

  8. Murdoch’s DT seemingly is unaware of the mighty scam artists employed by the banks and AMP.

    However they have a big story on overseas students allegedly scamming the banks.

    Obviously these students are well qualified to be employed by the banks.

    FOREIGN STUDENTS SCAMMED $2.5M FROM BANKS
    BANK FRAUD FOREIGN students in Sydney have been recruited by an overseas criminal gang to steal millions of dollars from major banks in a sophisticated scam.

  9. Lizzie, it maybe as you say, but It may be of other reasons. A relative of mine is male, Austrlaina and a qualified lawyer but could only find work as a kitchen hand.

  10. This lawsuit will probably go nowhere but it could increase the pressure on Trump.

    The Democratic National Committee is suing the Trump campaign, Russia, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange and several relatives and associates of President Donald Trump alleging a grand conspiracy that harmed Democrats through WikiLeaks’ publication of internal party emails during the 2016 presidential campaign.

    The 66-page lawsuit filed in Manhattan federal court on Friday lays out how the Trumps allegedly curried favor in Russia through their family business, and then Russians allegedly used those connections before the presidential election to disseminate the spoils from a cyberattack on the DNC.

    “In the Trump campaign, Russia found a willing and active partner in this effort” to disrupt the presidential election, the Democratic committee alleges.

    Judge John G. Koeltl, a Clinton appointee, will preside over the case.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/20/politics/democrats-lawsuit-russia/index.html

  11. PeeBee

    I’m not saying it, I’m quoting someone else. However, I agree that unemployment is rife .

    I do think that because of Dutton’s stubbornness, we are not making use of talents in the refugee population.

  12. Fluvio, if you are around. I would advise against taking your money out of the super system. Basically as you are over 65, you will hard to get it back in.

    I understand your strategy of waiting for a share market correction so you can ‘pounce’ to snap up bargains. (If I read your post correctly). That strategy can also be executed in your super account. Many let you swap between investment options, often at no cost. So in your case leave it in cash in the fund, and then when a crash occurs, swap to shares (some funds even let you nominate which shares to invest in).

    If it is a pension account you will be obliged to take out 5% as a pension, but all earnings are tax free.

    If you swap it into an accumulation account, you do not have to withdraw any capital, but you will pay 15% on earnings.

    If you take the money out of super, you pay nothing on earnings up to $18,200 and then 19% up to $32,000 etc. but you do not have to reduce the capital by drawing a pension.

  13. Morning all. Thanks William for the pendulum. And thanks BK for the roundup. So a promoted RC into unions finds almost no prosecutable crime, and a delayed RC into banks finds numerous crimes, all going unprosecuted, within a few sittings. Continued Liberal government will be the death of law and justice in Australia.

    Apart from a replacement for ASIC, the RC shows we need a ban or cap on corporate political donations and a federal ICAC more than ever. How much money changed hands between banks and the Liberal party for this to go unprosecuted?

    There is also a massive failure of ministerial responsibility. If Morrison, Corman and O’Dwyer knew about this and failed to prosecute they were compromised. If they did not know they were asleep at the wheel. They should all resign either way.

  14. Attorney General Jeff Sessions recently told the White House he might have to leave his job if President Trump fired his deputy, Rod J. Rosenstein, who oversees the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to people familiar with the exchange.

    Sessions made his position known in a phone call to White House counsel Donald McGahn last weekend, as Trump’s fury at Rosenstein peaked after the deputy attorney general approved the FBI’s raid April 9 on the president’s personal attorney Michael Cohen.

    Sessions’s message to the White House, which has not previously been reported, underscores the political firestorm that Trump would invite should he attempt to remove the deputy attorney general. While Trump also has railed against Sessions at times, the protest resignation of an attorney general — which would be likely to incite other departures within the administration — would create a moment of profound crisis for the White House.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/sessions-told-white-house-that-rosensteins-firing-could-prompt-his-departure-too/2018/04/20/911ca994-44c7-11e8-bba2-0976a82b05a2_story.html?utm_term=.be0dfde0ea5a

  15. ‘A refugee single mother with a degree in pure mathematics working as a kitchen-hand.
    She worked as a maths teacher in her country of origin.’

    Nothing to do with race. I’ve worked alongside Indian, Chinese and Japanese Maths teachers.

    Firstly, pure maths doesn’t qualify anyone for anything much.

    Secondly, some teacher qualifications aren’t even recognised from state to state in Australia, let alone teacher qualifications from another country – I’ve twice applied for registration in NSW, for example, and both times it took me over six months to fulfill all their requirements.

    Thirdly, yes, there is a crying need for Maths teachers, but work availability will depend on where you live. Some areas are highly desirable – you basically have to wait for a current teacher to retire.

    I do object to “Australians are racist” claims based on single incidents like this.

  16. zoomster says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 8:44 am
    ‘A refugee single mother with a degree in pure mathematics working as a kitchen-hand.
    She worked as a maths teacher in her country of origin.’

    Nothing to do with race. I’ve worked alongside Indian, Chinese and Japanese Maths teachers.

    Firstly, pure maths doesn’t qualify anyone for anything much.

    Secondly, some teacher qualifications aren’t even recognised from state to state in Australia, let alone teacher qualifications from another country – I’ve twice applied for registration in NSW, for example, and both times it took me over six months to fulfill all their requirements.

    Thirdly, yes, there is a crying need for Maths teachers, but work availability will depend on where you live. Some areas are highly desirable – you basically have to wait for a current teacher to retire.

    Right on all counts, by my experience.

    As a teacher, you are often given student teachers to supervise for their prac. Most are nervous, but are well prepared and do a good job, act on advice, and improve a lot during their prac.

    But one time I got a PhD in Mathematics to supervise. At our first meeting, he was supercilious, and obviously regarded me as an inferior. I got the impression that he would show me how maths was done.

    The HOD gave him to me with my top year 8 class, great kids.

    He took the same manner with the students in his first lesson, and you could feel the tension rise. It was palpable. No one likes to be talked down to, and these very bright students took it badly.

    There was a deputation to see me after he walked out of the room:

    “Jeez, sir, how long do we have to have this bloke? He is a terrible teacher.”

    Normally the students only get restless towards the end of a three week stint of student teachers, when they want to get back to learning things quickly and easily and top students want to go on to harder, challenging stuff.

    He did not change over the three weeks, not one iota. He ignored all advice as to how to improve his teaching. It was a long time for all of us.

    And on qualifications – I found that in Canada my qualifications were more highly regarded since they came from Australia than if I had come from the neighbouring province.

  17. It’s funny, but it took me three hours this morning to remember it is my birthday. I suppose they lose their relevance as they roll by.

  18. BK says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 8:57 am
    It’s funny, but it took me three hours this morning to remember it is my birthday. I suppose they lose their relevance as they roll by.

    When I lived by myself, travelling and working as a teacher wherever I landed up, I would sometimes have to write the date and realise that my own birthday had occurred a week earlier.

    But I am sure I don’t need to tell you – don’t ever forget the birthday of your spouse!

  19. “BK says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 7:48 am
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Between the NEG and the banking royal commission there is much to peruse today.

    Peter Hartcher says that the NEG is ripe for Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and their acolytes to do their very best to smash it to pieces. A good spray.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-builds-new-tower-for-abbott-to-smash-to-pieces-20180420-p4zaui.html

    In the above article there is statement “It’s not that Abbott and Joyce are solely responsible for Australia’s dismal decade of energy and climate policy. Labor and the Greens have been complicit, too, at key moments.”
    Can somebody jog my memory when Labor was complicit in the debacle of Climate policy in the last decade. I know when Greens were complicit. It was when Bob Brown was Greens Leader.

  20. BK @ #23 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 5:57 am

    It’s funny, but it took me three hours this morning to remember it is my birthday. I suppose they lose their relevance as they roll by.

    Yesterday I was 18,993 days old,

    also 455,832 hours,

    27,349,920 minutes,

    1,640,995,200 seconds,

    2,713 weeks,

    624 months.

    And 52 laps of Sol!

    What’s another day? 🙂

  21. Hey BK,

    We share a birthday today.

    Many happy regards to you

    I have just clocked 60.

    Looking forward to browsing a few more Dawn Patrols

    Hope that we don’t die soon

  22. There was a conversation here the other day about Labor’s plans for infrastructure in WA and the Tories silence on the matter.

    I said that these types of projects are usually announced by government leaders and that Turnbull was a rare visitor to WA but we might see,some movement in the budget.

    Right on cue

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-to-announce-multibillion-dollar-wa-infrastructure-package-ng-b88812302z

  23. rossmcg:

    And the Libs have discovered rail again instead of roads!

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will visit Perth before the Federal Budget to unveil a multibillion-dollar WA infrastructure package, as the coalition prepares to shore up support in the State and gazump Labor’s promised GST top-up fund.

    The visit comes after successful lobbying from the State’s MPs and senators for funding of an infrastructure “wish list”, and after months of negotiation between Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and the State Labor Government on the package.

    Top of the Liberals’ wish list is the Ellenbrook–Morley rail line extension, which member for Pearce Christian Porter said was needed to deal with the rapidly growing community in the south of his seat.

  24. Ven @ #27 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 9:09 am

    “BK says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 7:48 am
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Between the NEG and the banking royal commission there is much to peruse today.

    Peter Hartcher says that the NEG is ripe for Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and their acolytes to do their very best to smash it to pieces. A good spray.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-builds-new-tower-for-abbott-to-smash-to-pieces-20180420-p4zaui.html

    In the above article there is statement “It’s not that Abbott and Joyce are solely responsible for Australia’s dismal decade of energy and climate policy. Labor and the Greens have been complicit, too, at key moments.”
    Can somebody jog my memory when Labor was complicit in the debacle of Climate policy in the last decade. I know when Greens were complicit. It was when Bob Brown was Greens Leader.

    A discredited former Labor PM tore down a Labor-Green Govt and with it the CEP.

  25. Labor and the Greens, and those rogue Nationals MPs who successfully fought their own Government for the inquiry to be established, have seized on this week’s revelations to claim vindication for their relentless campaign on the issue.

    The politics for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull are toxic.

    Already seen as a silvertailed defender of big business and multinationals, he will now be tarnished with seemingly trying to defend the indefensible — of trying to cover up the most serious, and potentially criminal, corporate misconduct.

    Turnbull will only entrench this view as he tries to push the Senate to support the Government’s corporate tax cuts for big business, including the banks.

    https://thewest.com.au/opinion/sarah-martin/opinion-banking-royal-commission-and-its-shocking-stories-expose-malcolm-turnbulls-weaknesses-ng-b88812629z

    Yep, not a good look at all.

  26. Happy birthday BK (P1′ partner). Really means nothing, but a little fuss made by your closest loved ones, reminds you that you are appreciated.

    And BK we appreciate you every day you do your roundup, even if we only thank you on your birthdays!

  27. “C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 7:55 am
    Paula Matthewson gets it about The Greens:

    The NEG is by no means a perfect policy – it’s more like a camel created by a committee that was trying to build a racehorse. But it’s better than nothing, because doing nothing will continue the uncertainty in the energy market that has prevented investors from building the energy projects needed to bring electricity prices down.

    But we could end up with nothing, if the various political players get their way. At one end of the spectrum, the Greens have called the NEG a ‘dog’ because it doesn’t cut greenhouse emissions deeply or quickly enough.

    The Greens’ position echoes its opposition to Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme. If the minor party had worked with PM Rudd to implement the scheme instead of taking the moral high ground on climate action, there would have been less reason for Mr Rudd to be dumped, and perhaps even less for Tony Abbott to replace Malcolm Turnbull as opposition leader at the time.

    It’s tempting to ponder whether Australia would be a very different place today if not for that decision by the Greens.

    Not only did it set off the chain of events that led to two party leaders being rolled, it created the opportunity for Mr Abbott (assisted by strategist Peta Credlin) to transform climate policy from a mostly bipartisan affair into a partisan political weapon.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/04/20/national-energy-guarantee-agreement/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%2020180421

    What will Rex, Nicholas & few others say to above. Rex could say that Rudd Government did work with Greens like Gillard Government to impose Carbon tax.

  28. PeeBee @ #39 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 9:47 am

    Happy birthday BK (P1′ partner). Really means nothing, but a little fuss made by your closest loved ones, reminds you that you are appreciated.

    And BK we appreciate you every day you do your roundup, even if we only thank you on your birthdays!

    Yes, happy birthday BK! (and just to be clear, BK and I are not partners!)

  29. Glorious Pecora‏ @noplaceforsheep

    Compiling list of all the things journos claim they didn’t know about, were taken in by, weren’t sure enough about, believed but now see they were wrong about in the last 18 months. I may be gone for some time.


  30. Confessions says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 9:45 am
    Labor and the Greens, and those rogue Nationals MPs who successfully fought their own Government for the inquiry to be established, have seized on this week’s revelations to claim vindication for their relentless campaign on the issue.

    The politics for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull are toxic.

    Already seen as a silvertailed defender of big business and multinationals, he will now be tarnished with seemingly trying to defend the indefensible — of trying to cover up the most serious, and potentially criminal, corporate misconduct.

    Turnbull will only entrench this view as he tries to push the Senate to support the Government’s corporate tax cuts for big business, including the banks.

    https://thewest.com.au/opinion/sarah-martin/opinion-banking-royal-commission-and-its-shocking-stories-expose-malcolm-turnbulls-weaknesses-ng-b88812629z

    Yep, not a good look at all.

    You have give credit to MT that he is fighting tooth & nail to get Tax cuts for big business. Alas, If he fought for Good Climate policy, Republic & Renewables. What are the chances now to get tax cuts for big business after budget.

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