Next federal election pendulum (provisional)

A pendulum for the next federal election, assuming new draft boundaries in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT are adopted as is.

Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.

The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.

The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.

The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).

For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.

Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017

Coalition seats Labor seats
+0.0% (0.6%) Qld CAPRICORNIA HERBERT Qld (0.0%) 0.0%
0.0% (0.6%) Qld FORDE COX (CORANGAMITE) Vic (0.1%) +3.2%
(0.7%) NSW GILMORE COWAN WA (0.7%)
0.0% (-1.0%) Qld FLYNN LONGMAN Qld (0.8%) 0.0%
(1.1%) NSW ROBERTSON LINDSAY NSW (1.1%)
(1.4%) NSW BANKS GRIFFITH Qld (1.4%) -0.2%
0.0% (1.6%) Qld PETRIE MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) Vic (1.5%) +0.1%
+0.2% (1.8%) Qld DICKSON BRADDON Tas (1.6%) -0.6%
(2.1%) WA HASLUCK DUNKLEY Vic (1.7%) +3.2%
(2.3%) NSW PAGE MACQUARIE NSW (2.2%)
+1.1% (2.5%) Vic LA TROBE ISAACS Vic (2.4%) -3.3%
+7.6% (2.8%) SA BOOTHBY EDEN-MONARO NSW (2.9%)
+2.0% (3.2%) Vic CHISHOLM PERTH WA (3.3%)
+4.3% (3.3%) SA MAYO RICHMOND NSW (4%)
+0.0% (3.4%) Qld DAWSON LYONS Tas (4%) +1.7%
0.0% (3.4%) Qld BONNER BENDIGO Vic (4%) +0.2%
(3.6%) WA SWAN MORETON Qld (4.1%) +0.0%
(3.6%) WA PEARCE HOTHAM Vic (4.3%) -3.2%
-0.0% (3.9%) Qld LEICHHARDT DOBELL NSW (4.8%)
-1.9% (4.1%) Vic CASEY JAGAJAGA Vic (5.1%) +0.4%
(4.7%) NSW REID McEWEN Vic (5.4%) -2.4%
+0.4% (4.8%) Vic INDI BASS Tas (5.4%) -0.7%
+1.2% (5.7%) SA STURT LILLEY Qld (5.8%) +0.5%
+0.1% (6%) Qld BRISBANE SOLOMON NT (6.1%) +0.1%
(6.1%) WA STIRLING GREENWAY NSW (6.3%)
+0.5% (6.2%) Vic DEAKIN BURT WA (7.1%)
-0.1% (6.7%) Qld KENNEDY BALLARAT Vic (7.5%) +0.1%
(6.8%) WA CANNING FREMANTLE WA (7.5%)
0.0% (7.1%) Qld BOWMAN PARRAMATTA NSW (7.7%)
-0.7% (7.1%) Vic FLINDERS BLAIR Qld (8.2%) -0.7%
-1.2% (7.4%) Vic ASTON LINGIARI NT (8.2%) -0.2%
+1.6% (7.6%) Vic MONASH (McMILLAN) WERRIWA NSW (8.2%)
-2.9% (7.7%) Vic MENZIES HINDMARSH SA (8.2%) +0.7%
+0.0% (8.2%) Qld WIDE BAY BARTON NSW (8.3%)
-0.1% (8.4%) Qld HINKLER MACARTHUR NSW (8.3%)
-3.5% (8.6%) SA GREY KINGSFORD SMITH NSW (8.6%)
-0.1% (9%) Qld RYAN CORIO Vic (8.6%) -1.4%
+0.1% (9.1%) Vic WANNON BEAN ACT (8.9%) New
+0.1% (9.2%) Qld FISHER ADELAIDE SA (8.9%) +2.1%
(9.3%) NSW HUGHES OXLEY Qld (9%) 0.0%
0.0% (9.6%) Qld WRIGHT MARIBYRNONG Vic (9.5%) -2.8%
(9.7%) NSW BENNELONG HOLT Vic (9.9%) -4.3%
-0.6% (10.1%) Vic HIGGINS SHORTLAND NSW (9.9%)
(10.2%) NSW HUME PATERSON NSW (10.7%)
-0.0% (10.9%) Qld FAIRFAX FRANKLIN Tas (10.7%) +0.0%
(11%) WA MOORE MAKIN SA (10.8%) +0.1%
(11.1%) WA DURACK RANKIN Qld (11.3%) 0.0%
(11.1%) WA TANGNEY BRAND WA (11.4%)
(11.1%) NSW WARRINGAH FENNER ACT (11.8%) -2.1%
+0.2% (11.3%) Qld FADDEN McMAHON NSW (12.1%)
(11.6%) NSW LYNE HUNTER NSW (12.5%)
0.0% (11.6%) Qld McPHERSON CANBERRA ACT (12.9%) +4.4%
(11.8%) NSW CALARE CUNNINGHAM NSW (13.3%)
-0.2% (12.4%) Vic GOLDSTEIN KINGSTON SA (13.5%) +0.1%
(12.6%) WA FORREST WHITLAM NSW (13.7%)
(12.6%) NSW COWPER NEWCASTLE NSW (13.8%)
-0.8% (12.6%) Vic KOOYONG LALOR Vic (14.3%) +0.9%
(13.6%) NSW NORTH SYDNEY GELLIBRAND Vic (14.7%) -3.6%
+6.9% (14.4%) SA BARKER SYDNEY NSW (15.3%)
-0.4% (14.6%) Qld MONCRIEFF CLARK (DENISON) Tas (15.3%) -0.0%
(15%) WA O’CONNOR BRUCE Vic (15.8%) +11.7%
(15.1%) NSW PARKES MELBOURNE Vic (17%) +0.4%
0.0% (15.3%) Qld GROOM FOWLER NSW (17.5%)
(15.4%) NSW COOK WATSON NSW (17.6%)
(15.7%) NSW MACKELLAR SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) SA (17.9%) +0.8%
(16.4%) NSW NEW ENGLAND GORTON Vic (18.3%) -1.2%
(16.4%) NSW RIVERINA CHIFLEY NSW (19.2%)
(16.4%) NSW BEROWRA BLAXLAND NSW (19.5%)
0.0% (17.5%) Qld MARANOA CALWELL Vic (20%) +2.2%
(17.7%) NSW WENTWORTH SCULLIN Vic (20.4%) +3.1%
(17.8%) NSW MITCHELL FRASER Vic (20.9%) New
-0.3% (18.1%) Vic GIPPSLAND WILLS Vic (21.7%) +0.5%
-1.4% (19.9%) Vic MALLEE BATMAN Vic (22.2%) +0.5%
(20.5%) NSW FARRER GRAYNDLER NSW (22.4%)
(20.7%) WA CURTIN
(21%) NSW BRADFIELD
-2.5% (22.4%) Vic NICHOLLS (MURRAY)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”

Comments Page 2 of 14
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  1. Ven says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 9:58 am
    “ex could say that Rudd Government did work with Greens like Gillard Government to impose Carbon tax.”
    I should have been “Rex could say that Rudd Government did not work with Greens like Gillard Government to impose Carbon tax.” My apologies.

  2. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 9:25 am
    don @ #30 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 6:22 am

    BigD:

    What’s another day?
    _____________

    Any day you don’t wake up dead is a great day!

    _____________

    You’re not getting religious on us, Don?

    How do you “wake up dead”?

    With great difficulty!

    😉

  3. Turnbull has already dismissed any idea of cutting down on plastics.

    Does he only agree with ideas that he originates himself? Like the Snowy scheme? (sarc)

  4. Hey William – thanks for the new pendulum …. but I reckon you should have coloured the Nats seats brown after the colour of the hats they all seem to want to wear at important pressers

  5. Lizzie – I reckon one of Turnbull’s mates is investing in plastic-eating enzymes or viruses. Only way for his friends to get rich is if there is a problem that needs ‘managing’ at great cost.

  6. Oops, that should have read ‘and also P1’s partner’. Mmmm that doesn’t sound right either…… I should have said, ‘and best wishes to P1’s partner who is a different person to BK, who is also having a birthday today.’

  7. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 9:56 am
    Pleasing news but, how do you “abolish” a test site?

    Doesn’t that just mean they will stop using it?

    North Korea says it will stop nuclear and missile tests and abolish test site

    ________________

    By all accounts, the NK test site has reached the end of its useful life in any case, and would soon have to be abandoned.

    ___________________

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/31/collapse-north-korea-nuclear-test-site-leaves-200-dead/

    As many as 200 North Korean labourers have been killed after a mine shaft being dug at the regime’s nuclear test site collapsed, according to Japan’s Asahi TV.

    Sources in North Korea told the news channel that a tunnel being excavated by around 100 workers at the Punggye-ri test site collapsed earlier this month.

    An additional 100 labourers sent to rescue their colleagues were reportedly killed when the tunnel suffered a second collapse.

    An exact date for the disaster has not been provided, but it comes shortly after North Korea conducted its sixth – and most powerful – underground nuclear test at the site.

    North Korea claims the September 3 test beneath Mount Mantap was of a hydrogen bomb, with monitors suggesting the detonation was equivalent to an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 on the Richter Scale.

    Some analysts put the yield of the weapon as high as 280 kilotons, while seismologists picked up signs of underground collapses in the hours and days after the blast.

    Satellite images of the Punngye-ri site taken immediately after the test revealed significant damage to surface features, including landslips.

    On October 17, a study published by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University and published on the 38 North website suggested the sixth underground test at the site had caused “substantial damage to the existing tunnel network under Mount Mantap”.

    Nam Jae-chol, the head of South Korea’s Meteorological Administration, warned in testimony before its parliament on Monday that further tests at Punggye-ri could cause the mountain to collapse and release radioactivity into the environment.

    “Based on our analysis of satellite imagery, we judge that there is a hollow space, which measures about 60 metres by 100 metres beneath Mount Matap”, he said. “Should another nuclear test take place, there is a possibility [of a collapse]”.

    Chinese scientists have issued similar warnings, suggesting that nuclear fallout could spread across “an entire hemisphere” if the mountain did collapse.

  8. Good Morning

    William

    Thank you for the pendulum. Worth every cent I pay in subscriptions via Patreon. I urge any that have not to show appreciation by doing the same.

    BK

    Happy Birthday.

  9. Ven @ #51 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 10:10 am

    Ven says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 9:58 am
    “ex could say that Rudd Government did work with Greens like Gillard Government to impose Carbon tax.”
    I should have been “Rex could say that Rudd Government did not work with Greens like Gillard Government to impose Carbon tax.” My apologies.

    Team Abbott’s primary motivation re climate/energy policy was all about the politics – divide and conquer to win the leadership and Govt benches. They’re still doing it. Sadly there a certain Labor MP’s who are tied to big coal unions who won’t allow the party to once again form a partnership with the Greens to create a sustainable progressive minority Govt that properly addresses climate/energy policy.

  10. “It underpins the fraudulent reasoning for the government’s proposed company tax cut for big businesses. Do you really think these businesses, which have consistently ripped off their own customers, will be using such a tax to reward their workers and customers, or will they use it to reward themselves”

    This is the most damningly honest par in Grog’s story this morning.

    And ONLY those who choose not to care or have a vested interest would ignore it.

  11. Rex

    I disagree with you at times about your comments on Labor. However this one is spot on.

    The CFMEU is letting their members down trying to cling to a dying industry and not concentrating on transition for their members to new jobs as their priority.

    I am glad however that Labor has 100% backed renewables. They at least unlike the LNP are not standing in the way despite the handbrake of that particular union.

  12. The challenge for the Coalition to win majority government (they only have 73-74 seats on the new boundaries) is to win seats in New South Wales and Victoria, along with keeping the current Queensland seats in order to lose the 4 or 5 predicted in Western Australia. I believe that is going to be a tough ask.

  13. The Colesworths delivery man (youth) has just been and gone.

    “What do you think about the Banking Royal Commision news?” I asked him.

    “What’s that then?” says young man in a hurry.

    “You don’t watch or read the news?” I enquire.

    No” says young man.

    “Very wise” is the best I can manage. At his age I barely knew where I was let along what was happening in the country or the world.

    Stocked up with coffee, milk and sugar. No plans for waking up dead tomorrow. Time, I guess, will tell.

    ☮✌☕


  14. lizzie says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 10:13 am
    Turnbull has already dismissed any idea of cutting down on plastics.

    Does he only agree with ideas that he originates himself? Like the Snowy scheme? (sarc)

    Lizzie MT thinks that he is the smartest person in the room (Although it is obvious he is not) .So how can he agree with ideas that does not originate from him. If he agrees it proves that he is not the smartest person.

  15. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 10:25 am

    Team Abbott’s primary motivation re climate/energy policy was all about the politics – divide and conquer to win the leadership and Govt benches. They’re still doing it. Sadly there a certain Labor MP’s who are tied to big coal unions who won’t allow the party to once again form a partnership with the Greens to create a sustainable progressive minority Govt that properly addresses climate/energy policy.

    First, the attempt by Rex Troll to link Abbott and Labor – to depict them as same/same – is thoroughly disreputable.

    Second, there are not “certain Labor MPs…who…won’t…once again form a partnership with the Greens”. There is the whole of Labor that are against this. The entire party, from the ground up, know that only sorrow and defeat lie ahead for Labor if they affiliate with the Greens. This will never happen again.

  16. guytaur @ #65 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 10:33 am

    Dameyon @DameyonBonson
    This distinction made by @gumnut49, about two thirds in, in this almost surreal, expose, is important.

    “You can’t blame the migrants — they’re responding to the opportunities they’re offered. It’s the fault of government that it fails to prioritise training young Australians.” https://twitter.com/gumnut49/status/987198235226685440

    Good article. I don’t blame the migrants, I blame the government. They are the ones perpetuating record high rate of migration. Clearly, it’s cheaper to import pre-trained labour than train our own. Which is why our youth unemployment is at shockingly high levels, and apprenticeships and traineeships are becoming a thing of the past. As the article concludes:

    You can be pro-immigration and still conclude that right now we have far too much of it. That is the inescapable reason why job growth has failed to lower unemployment.

  17. Confessions says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 9:39 am
    rossmcg:

    And the Libs have discovered rail again instead of roads!

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will visit Perth before the Federal Budget to unveil a multibillion-dollar WA infrastructure package, as the coalition prepares to shore up support in the State and gazump Labor’s promised GST top-up fund.

    The visit comes after successful lobbying from the State’s MPs and senators for funding of an infrastructure “wish list”, and after months of negotiation between Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and the State Labor Government on the package.

    Top of the Liberals’ wish list is the Ellenbrook–Morley rail line extension, which member for Pearce Christian Porter said was needed to deal with the rapidly growing community in the south of his seat.

    The Libs now promising to fund Labor’s rail project.

    If the Liberals were really serious about funding infrastructure in Perth, they would be identifying the many other projects that await, especially in rail and light rail, in health and the port.

    But nah…this involves a bit of thinking…something of which they are inherently incapable.

  18. guytaur says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 10:49 am

    The ACT is about as significant in the scheme of Australian Government as are, say, the combined cities of Stirling, Bayswater and Joondalup in Perth’s north. In other words, they are pretty well irrelevant to the determination of national affairs.

    The Gs are totally toxic for Labor at a national level. They are among those who try to defeat Labor. This is their basic mode of business. The single best thing the Gs could to advance reformist government in Australia would be for them to vote for their own dissolution.

  19. Briefly

    You can have your own opinion. Not your own facts.

    Trying do denigrate ACT Labor does not change the fact I quoted at you.

  20. briefly @ #78 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 11:09 am

    guytaur says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 10:49 am

    The ACT is about as significant in the scheme of Australian Government as are, say, the combined cities of Stirling, Bayswater and Joondalup in Perth’s north. In other words, they are pretty well irrelevant to the determination of national affairs.

    The Gs are totally toxic for Labor at a national level. They are among those who try to defeat Labor. This is their basic mode of business. The single best thing the Gs could to advance reformist government in Australia would be for them to vote for their own dissolution.

    Straight out of the neo-lib handbook.

  21. guytaur says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 11:11 am
    Briefly

    You can have your own opinion. Not your own facts.

    Trying do denigrate ACT Labor does not change the fact I quoted at you.

    Lol.

    The politics of the ACT does not change the politics of the federal contest, no matter that you may wish it did.

    Be very sure, Labor as a whole is allergic to the Gs. They wage campaigns against Labor all the time. Very fortunately, this now counts against the Gs among Labor-positive voters and Labor’s PV is gradually improving despite the efforts of the Gs to subvert that motion.

    These days, the Gs also campaign against the values and preferences of their own strongest supporters. This can only help Labor. Excellent situation. The Gs are unable to change their settings and will pilot themselves to electoral insignificance.

  22. Very Cool.

    Sydney Peach Prize awarded to Joseph Stieglitz

    Nobel Prize winning American economist Joseph Stiglitz will receive the 2018 Sydney Peace Prize in recognition of contribution to tackling the global inequality crisis.
    The former economic adviser to the Clinton administration and Chief Economist at the World Bank will come to Sydney to deliver the City of Sydney Peace Prize Lecture at the Sydney Town Hall on November 15.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/american-economist-joseph-stiglitz-wins-2018-sydney-peace-prize-20180419-p4zamg.html

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 11:12 am

    Straight out of the neo-lib handbook.

    And this is straight out of the Putinist/Murdochian/IPA disinformation kit. Rex/dtt are interchangeable in this respect.

  24. Briefly

    You asserted the whole of Labor would never work with the Greens.

    I showed you a fact proving otherwise. You then tried to walk it back by making out you meant Federal Labor.

    Too late your first post is on the record

  25. Horace Towns@thehoracetowns
    1h1 hour ago

    Wouldn’t it be genius of North Korea to say whatever America & Trump wanted to hear? It would ease tensions and provide a stress free environment to do what they said they wouldn’t

    I guess the other question is what is Nth Korea expecting in return for stopping nuclear weapons testing?

  26. Rudy Giuliani is a ‘has-been’ who was ‘never that great in the first place’: Ex-DOJ public corruption prosecutor

    Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who joined President Donald Trump’s legal defense team, has no realistic chance of fulfilling his public predictions of wrapping up special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation within the next two-weeks, Friday’s panel on MSNBC’s Hardball explained.

    To analyze the relationship, Matthews brought on Georgetown Law Professor Paul Butler. Butler specialized in prosecuting public corruption during his time at the Department of Justice.

    “How can Giuliani come in and say, ‘I’m blowing the whistle on you guys, we’re going to stop this thing?’ That doesn’t make sense,” the host concluded.

    “Because he is not a good criminal defense lawyer,” answered Prof. Butler. “There are a hundred white collar criminal defense attorneys in D.C. who are experienced in high profile complex criminal investigations. Rudy Giuliani is not one of those people.

    “He’s a has-been who was never all that great in the first place,” he concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/rudy-giuliani-never-great-first-place-ex-doj-public-corruption-prosecutor/

  27. @briefly

    In Tasmania the two times an alliance between the Greens and Labor has occurred, the first one the accord was a failure, the second one between 2010 and 2014 did work.

    Also there was a minority Liberal government with Greens support between 1996 and 1998. Any workable Labor-Green or less likely Liberal-Green alliance would depend on leadership of both parties.

    Not to mention Australia has not had much experience with the sort of Coalition governments which are prominent in much of the world, including Continental Europe. I believe the Labor party is mixed on the issue of dealing with the Greens. The party as a whole believe in not dealing with the Greens unless it was necessary.

  28. guytaur says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 11:20 am

    Pedantry.

    The yada yada had been about Federal Labor. There is no doubt at all there would be a mass revolt in Labor from the grass roots upwards if there were a power-sharing deal between Labor and the Gs nationally.

    We know the Gs essentially despise Labor. It’s palpable during election campaigns. The Gs instinctive response when they meet Labor volunteers, members, supporters and candidates is to shy away, really essentially, they cringe. They reckon they are better than Labor. They are, in fact, political snobs, as are the LNP. They still expect – really, assume they are entitled to receive – Labor help on polling day, but they really cannot disguise the cringing. Meanwhile they try to defeat Labor candidates.

    They can all GAGF. They are Libs in fancy dress.

  29. ACCC vs Steam:

    “This important precedent confirms the ACCC’s view that overseas-based companies selling to Australian consumers must abide by our laws. If customers buy a product online that is faulty, they are entitled to the same right to a repair, replacement or refund as if they’d walked in to a store”.

    https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/high-court-dismisses-valve%E2%80%99s-special-leave-to-appeal-application

    It’s a pitty ACCC doesn’t have the balls to solve NBN or Telstra.

  30. Because of the great, persistent, internal unreason that descends within the Coalition whenever the words carbon abatement are uttered, the government has locked itself out of conventional policy approaches, so it had to conjure up something entirely new, and when you are a government trapped in that universe, the policy will reflect the compromises you’ve had to make to get there.

    So the Neg isn’t perfect. Not even close.

    Frydenberg is also being shadowed at every turn by Tony Abbott. Abbott, more than any other person, has created the energy mess Australia finds itself in. You’d think his previous miscalculations might trigger a bout of quiet introspection, or even remorse, but no such luck. Our former prime minister is nothing if not relentless, always up for another round of virtue signalling, followed by vandalism.

    Frydenberg will have to come back to the Coalition party room to secure sign off on legislation enacting the national emissions reduction target for electricity, and determine a trajectory for how fast that emissions reduction happens.

    The government will also have to make a decision and get internal sign off about whether energy companies will be able to buy offsets to reduce their emissions, and the treatment of activities that are emissions intensive and trade exposed.

    These questions will be resolved while there is a rising public clamour about what happens with emissions reduction in the rest of the Australian economy – a new front that Frydenberg really doesn’t want to open given his plan for electricity is not yet settled, and the colleagues are already skittish.

    So in Coalition terms, Frydenberg faces a challenge comparable to climbing Mount Everest without oxygen, and that’s in normal conditions. That’s assuming the government doesn’t blow itself up between now and the end of the year, which on current indications, looks entirely possible.


    As a price of entry, the Greens would want at a minimum a much higher emissions reduction target, a plan for shutting down coal fired power and structural adjustment assistance for workers, more subsidies for renewables, and significant government intervention in the electricity market including more generation to future-proof the grid once the transport fleet starts rolling over at pace to electric cars.

    To cut a long story short, we could be back at Groundhog Day, where Labor attempts post-election to implement a climate and energy policy that the Greens insist needs to be made more ambitious, which then prompts opposition leader Peter Dutton to demand repeal.

    For anyone who has lived through the colossal public policy failure of the past decade, the thought of enduring that zero sum cycle again will be enough to trigger a cold sweat.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/21/frydenbergs-neg-challenge-is-like-climbing-everest-with-no-oxygen?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

  31. Jay

    In everything we should be following Scandinavia not the US in how we approach things. There are good reasons they are economic success stories with happiest people and least inequality.

    That includes learning from having more diversity of voices at the table.

    The strength of the Gillard Government and why it was so attacked by the Murdoch machine and extremists like Abbott was because it worked well.

    Still one of the best governments since Whitlam. A government that worked with support from Greens all the way to conservative independents like Windsor and Oakeshott. They almost got Katter too.

    How easy it is to blame the Greens.

    The failures of that government politically were due to unprecedented attacks since the Whitlam era and the Labor party tearing itself apart.

    Thats the reality. Thats the facts. Blaming the Greens is just falling for the right wing neo liberal scapegoat that Murdoch has been pushing. The same mob that praised bringing in a piece of coal to parliament.

    You can blame the Greens for a lot of things. However you cannot blame the Greens for the actions of the LNP in pursuing fantasist fact free policy.

  32. guytaur @ #95 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 11:53 am

    Jay

    In everything we should be following Scandinavia not the US in how we approach things. There are good reasons they are economic success stories with happiest people and least inequality.

    That includes learning from having more diversity of voices at the table.

    The strength of the Gillard Government and why it was so attacked by the Murdoch machine and extremists like Abbott was because it worked well.

    Still one of the best governments since Whitlam. A government that worked with support from Greens all the way to conservative independents like Windsor and Oakeshott. They almost got Katter too.

    How easy it is to blame the Greens.

    The failures of that government politically were due to unprecedented attacks since the Whitlam era and the Labor party tearing itself apart.

    Thats the reality. Thats the facts. Blaming the Greens is just falling for the right wing neo liberal scapegoat that Murdoch has been pushing. The same mob that praised bringing in a piece of coal to parliament.

    You can blame the Greens for a lot of things. However you cannot blame the Greens for the actions of the LNP in pursuing fantasist fact free policy.

    You have an ongoing propensity to blame Murdoch and Abbott, but completely overlook Rudds involvement in the destruction of the Labor-Greens progressive Govt… ?

  33. guytaur

    I think there is a difference between the Greens in Gillard’s time, and now, and the difference is
    1. their leader, whose aim is to become a federal power equal to Labor or Libs;
    2. their membership, who are now more likely to be city dwellers.

    Back then, I do not recall the constant attacks on Labor.

  34. Rex Douglas says:
    Saturday, April 21, 2018 at 11:46 am
    briefly @ #90 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 11:34 am

    ….. There is no doubt at all there would be a mass revolt in Labor from the grass roots upwards if there were a power-sharing deal between Labor and the Gs nationally….

    I doubt that very much and think the opposite would occur.

    More Rightist propaganda….Trumpaganda…

  35. guytaur

    I think the population sizes may also be important. The countries that top the lists are consistently small to medium sized countries.

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