Next federal election pendulum (provisional)

A pendulum for the next federal election, assuming new draft boundaries in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT are adopted as is.

Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.

The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.

The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.

The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).

For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.

Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017

Coalition seats Labor seats
+0.0% (0.6%) Qld CAPRICORNIA HERBERT Qld (0.0%) 0.0%
0.0% (0.6%) Qld FORDE COX (CORANGAMITE) Vic (0.1%) +3.2%
(0.7%) NSW GILMORE COWAN WA (0.7%)
0.0% (-1.0%) Qld FLYNN LONGMAN Qld (0.8%) 0.0%
(1.4%) NSW BANKS GRIFFITH Qld (1.4%) -0.2%
0.0% (1.6%) Qld PETRIE MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) Vic (1.5%) +0.1%
+0.2% (1.8%) Qld DICKSON BRADDON Tas (1.6%) -0.6%
(2.1%) WA HASLUCK DUNKLEY Vic (1.7%) +3.2%
+1.1% (2.5%) Vic LA TROBE ISAACS Vic (2.4%) -3.3%
+7.6% (2.8%) SA BOOTHBY EDEN-MONARO NSW (2.9%)
+2.0% (3.2%) Vic CHISHOLM PERTH WA (3.3%)
+4.3% (3.3%) SA MAYO RICHMOND NSW (4%)
+0.0% (3.4%) Qld DAWSON LYONS Tas (4%) +1.7%
0.0% (3.4%) Qld BONNER BENDIGO Vic (4%) +0.2%
(3.6%) WA SWAN MORETON Qld (4.1%) +0.0%
(3.6%) WA PEARCE HOTHAM Vic (4.3%) -3.2%
-0.0% (3.9%) Qld LEICHHARDT DOBELL NSW (4.8%)
-1.9% (4.1%) Vic CASEY JAGAJAGA Vic (5.1%) +0.4%
(4.7%) NSW REID McEWEN Vic (5.4%) -2.4%
+0.4% (4.8%) Vic INDI BASS Tas (5.4%) -0.7%
+1.2% (5.7%) SA STURT LILLEY Qld (5.8%) +0.5%
+0.1% (6%) Qld BRISBANE SOLOMON NT (6.1%) +0.1%
+0.5% (6.2%) Vic DEAKIN BURT WA (7.1%)
-0.1% (6.7%) Qld KENNEDY BALLARAT Vic (7.5%) +0.1%
0.0% (7.1%) Qld BOWMAN PARRAMATTA NSW (7.7%)
-0.7% (7.1%) Vic FLINDERS BLAIR Qld (8.2%) -0.7%
-1.2% (7.4%) Vic ASTON LINGIARI NT (8.2%) -0.2%
+1.6% (7.6%) Vic MONASH (McMILLAN) WERRIWA NSW (8.2%)
-2.9% (7.7%) Vic MENZIES HINDMARSH SA (8.2%) +0.7%
+0.0% (8.2%) Qld WIDE BAY BARTON NSW (8.3%)
-0.1% (8.4%) Qld HINKLER MACARTHUR NSW (8.3%)
-3.5% (8.6%) SA GREY KINGSFORD SMITH NSW (8.6%)
-0.1% (9%) Qld RYAN CORIO Vic (8.6%) -1.4%
+0.1% (9.1%) Vic WANNON BEAN ACT (8.9%) New
+0.1% (9.2%) Qld FISHER ADELAIDE SA (8.9%) +2.1%
(9.3%) NSW HUGHES OXLEY Qld (9%) 0.0%
0.0% (9.6%) Qld WRIGHT MARIBYRNONG Vic (9.5%) -2.8%
(9.7%) NSW BENNELONG HOLT Vic (9.9%) -4.3%
-0.6% (10.1%) Vic HIGGINS SHORTLAND NSW (9.9%)
(10.2%) NSW HUME PATERSON NSW (10.7%)
-0.0% (10.9%) Qld FAIRFAX FRANKLIN Tas (10.7%) +0.0%
(11%) WA MOORE MAKIN SA (10.8%) +0.1%
(11.1%) WA DURACK RANKIN Qld (11.3%) 0.0%
(11.1%) WA TANGNEY BRAND WA (11.4%)
(11.1%) NSW WARRINGAH FENNER ACT (11.8%) -2.1%
+0.2% (11.3%) Qld FADDEN McMAHON NSW (12.1%)
(11.6%) NSW LYNE HUNTER NSW (12.5%)
0.0% (11.6%) Qld McPHERSON CANBERRA ACT (12.9%) +4.4%
-0.2% (12.4%) Vic GOLDSTEIN KINGSTON SA (13.5%) +0.1%
(12.6%) WA FORREST WHITLAM NSW (13.7%)
-0.8% (12.6%) Vic KOOYONG LALOR Vic (14.3%) +0.9%
(13.6%) NSW NORTH SYDNEY GELLIBRAND Vic (14.7%) -3.6%
+6.9% (14.4%) SA BARKER SYDNEY NSW (15.3%)
-0.4% (14.6%) Qld MONCRIEFF CLARK (DENISON) Tas (15.3%) -0.0%
(15%) WA O’CONNOR BRUCE Vic (15.8%) +11.7%
(15.1%) NSW PARKES MELBOURNE Vic (17%) +0.4%
0.0% (15.3%) Qld GROOM FOWLER NSW (17.5%)
(15.4%) NSW COOK WATSON NSW (17.6%)
(16.4%) NSW NEW ENGLAND GORTON Vic (18.3%) -1.2%
0.0% (17.5%) Qld MARANOA CALWELL Vic (20%) +2.2%
(17.7%) NSW WENTWORTH SCULLIN Vic (20.4%) +3.1%
(17.8%) NSW MITCHELL FRASER Vic (20.9%) New
-0.3% (18.1%) Vic GIPPSLAND WILLS Vic (21.7%) +0.5%
-1.4% (19.9%) Vic MALLEE BATMAN Vic (22.2%) +0.5%
(20.7%) WA CURTIN
-2.5% (22.4%) Vic NICHOLLS (MURRAY)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”

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  1. We have enough troubles learning not to be frightened of a handful of asylum seekers who arrive by boat. We are busy making our own martyrs and villains and traumatising people (including kids) in our own gulags.

  2. Visited a museum with a Grey Fergie as one of the exhibits. I learned to drive on one and did plenty if farm work on it. It was quite a moving experience. My last drive on one would have been over half a century ago.

  3. Barnyard throwing Kelly O under the bus…

    Barnaby Joyce on #nationalwrap next and says Kelly O’Dwyer should have thrown out the speaking notes on #RoyalCommission #auspol right now on @abcnews TV #auspol

  4. If the people who live there cannot solve the problems in the ME, we on PB sure as hell won’t.

    Well we don’t live in America or the UK yet that doesn’t stop us having a view about the politics in those countries.

    *ducks and runs*

  5. Sprocket ~ @ #654 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:15 pm

    Barnyard throwing Kelly O under the bus…

    Barnaby Joyce on #nationalwrap next and says Kelly O’Dwyer should have thrown out the speaking notes on #RoyalCommission #auspol right now on @abcnews TV #auspol

    Again I ask: why is the media at all interested in what a discredited former Nationals leader has to say about anything?

  6. Of course the live export trade should be stopped. It’s exporting jobs as well as unfortunate animals. We can process meat here, certify it halal if needed and guarantee a quality product for people in the Middle East and elsewhere.

    But to do so will affect profits! Oh the horror! No one can ever be financially disadvantaged by our system of law and regulation unless they are workers, students, ordinary people buying a home or those unfortunate enough to have to be supported by welfare because of age, disability or because our economy has failed them. But profits are sacrosanct.

    Seriously, we can provide reasonable compensation to pastoralists and their workers if warranted. It can be paid for out of the huge funds that would be available p by making corporations, especially multinationals, pay their tax. More can flow from unwinding the budget vandalism of Howard and Costello. And by cancelling the $65,000,000,000,000 handout to big business via corporate tax cuts.

    And big pastoral companies? They can get stuffed. No compensation for them. They’re probably no better than the banks. Whatever they can get away with through plausible deniability.

    [end rant]

  7. Boerwar,
    It was the first thing i drove too. Grey Fergie, sitting in my Mum’s lap, about 7 or 8 years old, then I used to drive it through when she opened a gate. Then I could drive it from feed trough to feed trough in the paddocks to feed the horses.

    I spent part of my childhood on a Thoroughbred Racehorse Stud near Digger’s Rest in Victoria. It was called Stockwell Stud, where all the upper-crust kept their expensive racehorse breeders. The Premier of Victoria etc were regular visitors, not that I ever saw them. Now it is called Emirates something or other. Same/Same.

    I loved that tractor, highlight of my week, helping feed the mares and foals.

  8. Fess,
    We can have and express opinions, but like Trump’s USA, we are not going to change much. But as I said, I am as pessimistic as hell about the ME. Just leave ’em to it, and treat with the winners. It was always an option in foreign affairs!

  9. The Germans tried to do the Jews what the Jews did to the Amalekites (1 Samuel 15:3). Neither action was acceptable even if done in the name of god. Nor are the current happenings in Israel; yelling arn’t going to change that.

  10. Shouldn’t Barnaby Joyce be at home with his partner and their new baby!?! Not trying to resurrect his failed political career!?!

  11. steve777
    I totally agree. They put their money into an abominable trade, where no decent person should have done. They risked their resources on a venture where the price was paid by the animals, for profit.

    They rightly are losing their social licence and if they lose money as well, eff ’em. They knew what they were doing.

  12. Apparently Barnyard on Patricia Karvelas show has:

    – said Kelly O should have ‘thrown away the talking points’ on the banking RC, and apologised
    – made a heartfelt plea that politcians should be able to employ their partners ( and presumably bonk staffers in the hope of making them partners)

    A loose cannon

  13. I would however, expect the USA to provide asylum to any woman and/or child who wanted out of the ME. There is no reason for them to have no way of escaping violence. The USA says they take huddled masses, and they have caused a heap of trauma over there, so that seems a reasonable response to me.

  14. Where is Newspoll?

    And enough with this Barnaby obsession. He’s a nobody, a former party leader like Rudd and Abbott who hasn’t learned the value of less is more.

  15. Henry @ #641 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:48 pm

    I have tremendous empathy and sympathy for the Jewish people obviously due to the horrors of the holocaust but they have lost a lot of goodwill over the years with their treatment of the Palestinian people.

    The Holocaust was a European phenomenon and the culmination of nearly 2,000 years of anti-Semitism fostered by the Christian Church. Its scale was expanded due to countries such as the UK, USA and Australia being unwilling to take more refugees from pre-WWII Nazi Germany. Shameful. Inexcusable.
    But it is no reason why the former inhabitants of what is now Israel should have been displaced and dispossessed. This does not atone for the crimes in Europe and has simply created further injustice. Shameful. Inexcusable.

  16. The old grey fergie….. If I recall correctly, you started it by pushing the gear stick into one of the gear slots…. that is if you had a battery. If not, get out the crank handle and crank her over at the front, making sure you had your thumb on the same side of the handle as your fingers so if it kicked back you didn’t lose it.

    It could also be disabled with one wrench (came supplied when new and houses in a toolbox on the side of the motor). All the nuts and bolts on the tractor were only two sizes.

  17. 51-49 ALP…..The electors are idiots……….sigh…..if the Coalition is returned at the next election then the people who elect them deserve every crap thing this govt will do to them…and then some.

  18. It puzzles me that people think we should not be interested in what Joyce has to say.

    Until a few months ago he was DPM and no doubt hankers after his old job so he is still a significant player in the political game.

    He is symptomatic of the division that is endemic in the conservative side of politics and I would have thought the people most interested in seeing him silenced would be his former colleagues.

    He probably talked a load of rubbish which is all the Labor’s advantage. As far as I am concerned the more opportunities he, like Abbott, gets to undermine the government the better.

  19. From my observations,.the ppty market has gone off the boil here in Melbourne. What effect that has on politics, remains to be seen

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