Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.
The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.
The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.
The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).
For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.
Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017
|Coalition seats||Labor seats|
|0.0%||(1.6%)||Qld||PETRIE||MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS)||Vic||(1.5%)||+0.1%|
682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”
Sohar @ #597 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:26 pm
Ha Ha. I bet some of your best friends are Jewish too.
Bushfire Bill @ #600 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:35 pm
What do you think?
And I bet some of your best friends are Jews too, TPOF.
bemused @ #234 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:06 pm
The Greens will end live export when they get enough parliamentary representation to force the change.
A vote for Lib-Lab is a vote to continue animal torture.
Steve777 @ #599 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:27 pm
Hi Steve. Your post is worth repeating as it is only the second rational post on this issue today.
And no – it is a legitimate clearly argued position that opposes what Israel is doing without recourse to anti-semitic tropes. Despite all the accusations against me (I’m waiting for someone to accuse me of being an Elder of Zion) it is possible to criticise Israel strongly without being accused of anti-semitism.
As for the arguments – I suspect that you are right. it is certainly what Netanyahu wants because he does not believe, ideologically, that any other option is feasible. He’s wrong, but the visceral strengthening of opposition to Israel’s right to exist as a state (because it is a ‘rogue state’) is increasingly serving his ends by making the only possible outcome into the foreseeable future a single state under Jewish domination.
Is there a Newspoll due? Parliament doesn’t resume for another week or so.
Bushfire Bill @ #603 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:37 pm
Hmm – maybe, maybe not – but I don’t claim some right to moral superiority for my opinions on the basis of knowing people of a particular ethnic background.
Honestly, how hypocritical are those who howl at the moon about animal torture then vote to continue it …?
Leunig searching for appropriate word in place of Prime Minister
Not sure if it makes you anti-Semitic.
Sure makes you seem sociopathic, though.
Ask Brian Trumble or the Mad Monk. They will for sure know the time of the release down to the nanosecond 🙂
TPOF @ #602 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:37 pm
I’m definitely interested in your explanation of why this does or does not make you anti-semitic. You are very eloquent and a comprehensive thinker, so I’m sure you have a view.
Confessions – according to Patricia Karvalas there is a Newspoll tonight. A bit of uninformed chatter by no-names on twitter about what the result might be, but zero hints from anyone in a position to know.
I figure the following Newspoll will be three weeks after to this to be a post-budget poll.
No PvO ‘WOW’ yet ? 🙂
The person most likely to do something about sheep exports, at least in the short term, may be WA Ag Minister ALannah McTiernan.
As I read it at the very least she is keen to stop shipments in the hotter months and the follow up move will be to require the shippers reduce the size of the cargoes to give the sheep more space.
I have read that without the stocking rates used now the trade is not really economically viable.
The exporters and farmers will bleat like new born lambs but Allanah doesn’t lose many battles.
Newspoll WOWEE !
You may be right. WA wharfies have in the past been bolshie about live exports and taken action to hinder it.
I don’t have any Jewish friends. Am I an anti-semite?
A waiting game then? So Newspoll to go with the drama.
Try bit.ly for Leunig cartoon
I well remember some stoushes on the wharf at Fremantle when the wharfies tried to help their brothers in the meat workers union, one in particular way back in the 70s when farmers were trucked through picket lines to load sheep.
But those days are long gone with much reduced Union influence on the waterfront and various anti-Union legislation.
I had a Jewish dentist. He was a good dentist but a pain in the arse because he just wanted to lecture me about politics in Australia.
and who wants to argue with the dentist given their ability to cause pain in so many ways?
Does that make me an anti-Semite?
I’m a pessimist- put me down for a 51/49 Newspoll.
Kelly O’Dwyer seen leaving the ABC studios this morning:
Unambiguously. Can you please stop saying this sort of thing on my blog.
Brilliant 😆 😆 😆
Israel can deliver sub-launched, ICBM tipped, mobile land launched (several different systems), and air launched nuclear missiles.
Israel can obliterate all major Iranian population centres whenever it chooses.
Iranian deserts would the be able to suit themselves.
The pathetic attempts of Saudi warfighting in the Yemen are in sharp contrast to the fight put up by the Iranians in Iraq v Iran.
WB – BB
Rex Douglas @ #604 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 7:43 pm
So you are OK for the live export trade to continue for ever?
That is the logic of your idiotic position.
Reality is, Labor is the best hope to end.
Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 7:03 pm
How about O’Dwyer’s chin!
Lot of stretching (of the truth ) caused it ? BTW hope you had a great birthday yesterday
Dan Gulberry @ #618 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:00 pm
I don’t know the answer to that question. The existence of Jewish or Muslim friends is totally irrelevant. Of course, if you are happily good mates with a neo-nazi white supremacist that might give me some idea.
Kelly O’Dwyer looks like a cross between Jacqui Lambie and Buzz Lightyear.
(Just catching up with Insiders now).
Great stuff Dan btw.
So why haven’t the Terms of Reference been expanded past those agreed between the government and the banks, the restriction to only the “Big 4” been removed and the time span for reporting been extended?
Hondo O’Dwyer needs to be put out of her misery
Along with HRH Turnbull, Morrison and Kevin Andrews’ protege Sukkar
If it looks like a dead horse still going around and around a trotting track it is a dead horse
Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 7:03 pm
Liked his little touch of the ‘noise’ being made by the pigs “Rumble Trumble Rumble” Trumble well and truly rumbled.
Well picked up didn’t notice that
Dan Gulberry @ #618 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:00 pm
Are you sure? I have had some who I didn’t realise were Jewish for some time.
The equivalence issue (which sorts using legitimate criticisms of Israel to mask anti- semitism) is this: does one spend an equivalent amount of time criticizing similar behaviours by other countries?
There are other curly equivalence issues: since the Holocaust there have up to four times the Holocaust numbers murdered in mostly race/ethnic genocides in the Congo alone.
C@tmomma @ #628 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:16 pm
C@t. I gave BB the benefit of the doubt and treated his comment as a piece of ugly trolling. It did make me think, however, about other people dismissed by self-servers as having victim mentalities, such as the Indigenous peoples of this country and the refugees on Manus and Nauru who are regarded as ungrateful and economic migrants anyway.
I also thought, especially in the context of the indigenous ‘black armband’ history wars, how white people run around this country saying that they weren’t the ones who perpetrated the massacres and the stolen generation and they shouldn’t have to carry the blame while primping themselves up as heroes because some ancestor died on the Western Front or Gallipoli – usually the same people as Richard Flanagan pointed out.
The fact is that history – whether Genocide or catastrophe (a term used first by the Greeks expelled from Turkey after WWI when Greek leaders made an unconscionable play for Turkish lands more than 20 years before the Nakbah) – is only good if it provides context and lessons. It is no good when it is simply used as a justification for whatever villainy someone wants to perpetrate now. Whether it is the Holocaust or Sykes-Picot or some other signal event, we are not served by it being a justification for whatever.
The Holocaust remains critical in understanding the psychology of the Israeli state ideology. It doesn’t justify or validate Israel’s actions, but if we are ever to get any sort of legitimate settlement, the widespread fear of a repeat within Israel needs to be understood. By the same token, the understanding of deep Palestinian loss and dispossession needs to be understood within Israel. Which appears to be happening less and less.
The irony is that people in the west have swung from validating one experience over the other to the other way round. Validating one and rejecting the other gets us nothing but unfruitful absurdity. As this discussion today demonstrates.
bemused @ #635 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 6:27 pm
That’s a good point. I know for a fact that my close inner circle of friends are definitely not Jewish. The outer circle, I have no idea. There could well be some of the Jewish persuasion. It hasn’t been important enough for them to mention it, so it’s never been important enough for me to ask.
In response to TPOF’s question. None of my inner circle are neo-nazis, and none of the outer circle are either. In the outer circle there are a number who hold somewhat racist beliefs, but they tend be tolerant towards “others” and would never be involved in any racist organisations. If they are, they certainly keep it secret.
In her interview she came over as defensive and on the backfoot. No surprises given the topic and that Cassidy kept at her. I agree with zoomster that the govt would be best off turning it around and owning their ‘sobriety’ by saying they acted as soon as the problem escalated.
I have tremendous empathy and sympathy for the Jewish people obviously due to the horrors of the holocaust but they have lost a lot of goodwill over the years with their treatment of the Palestinian people.
Boerwar @ #637 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:35 pm
Equivalence is a red herring. Each situation is unique, and does not depend only on the number of deaths. The real issue is who is dying now and what can be done about it. My concern – dismissed as ‘whataboutery’ – is that the focus on one situation distracts from more serious ones because they are politically less sexy for those who comment – or too close to the bone for them.
Even more importantly, apparently unbalanced criticism and isolation can actually harden the resolve of the nation criticised. We saw it with Serbia. Putin is playing that tune for all it’s worth. And Netanyahu, who believes that Jews can trust nobody but themselves and that they will never be safe except in their own homeland defending themselves (rather than relying on self-interested allies), loves this sort of unreasoning criticism. It proves his point that two thousand years of history won’t be changed by one catastrophic event and Jews will always be regards as temporary sojourners in a strange land unless they are in Israel.
If the people who live there cannot solve the problems in the ME, we on PB sure as hell won’t.
I am not half glass empty on this issue, the glass is empty, smashed into a million bits and is headed to the recycling heap.
There is nobody there, and I mean nobody, who I can see is in anyway interested in any kind of peace, or fair settlement of claims or looking past the sights of a weapon.
The thing is, that attitude has not worked so far. It has made martyrs and villains on every side, and enough grief and trauma to sink the place. But no-one can stop picking sides, no-one willing to acknowledge a truth. As long as they kill and traumatise their kids, there is no hope of anything resembling ongoing peace and safety for people in that region.
There are probably other regions of the world like it, Northern Ireland and England were like it until they decided to stop.
Europe was like it until they had a couple of devastating wars and decided enough was enough.
Until the people who live there decide that enough have died, been disabled, and had their lives ruined, no-one external can do anything much to stop it. That is my opinion, and that Australia should have nothing to do with these conflicts.
(My humble opinion for what it is worth, is based on what I read can happen to the brains of traumatised kids who witness, experience or carry-out extreme violence. )
Disagree strongly that equivalence is a red herring.
The conceptual issue you may wish to address is this: when does history become history?
Also disagree on your assessment on why the Serbs behaved as they did.
Boerwar @ #645 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:59 pm
History becomes history the moment it occurs. And then it begins an endless journey up hill and down dale, across the seas and the desert and the frozen wastes.
Just look at the history of Anzac Day from 25 April 1915 until today!
“…a member of the Roman Paedophile Protection Society..”
Imagine if one described Muslims on here as being part of the ….. “…the Islamic Mass-murderer Protection Society…”.
You poor wee liberals would need smelling salts because of your (pseudo) outrage at it all.
Liberal fake-left hypocrits are the gift that keeps on giving to the Right Wing Nut Jobs.
But youse all have no idea.
There is absolutely no way that current affairs will ever take place totally in the present. It is a meaningless expectation.
Jesus H. Christ, we need Newspoll to drop early so this place doesn’t go down the rabbit hole too far.
I feel the same.
I want a secure, non-aggressive Israel, and the people of Palestine to have their state where they can live safely in a non-aggressive society. Ditto for who-ever else lives in the region. But what I want is totally moot to the issues.
I am just about over it.