Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.
The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.
The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.
The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).
For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.
Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017
| Coalition seats | Labor seats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.0% | (0.6%) | Qld | CAPRICORNIA | HERBERT | Qld | (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| 0.0% | (0.6%) | Qld | FORDE | COX (CORANGAMITE) | Vic | (0.1%) | +3.2% |
| (0.7%) | NSW | GILMORE | COWAN | WA | (0.7%) | ||
| 0.0% | (-1.0%) | Qld | FLYNN | LONGMAN | Qld | (0.8%) | 0.0% |
| (1.1%) | NSW | ROBERTSON | LINDSAY | NSW | (1.1%) | ||
| (1.4%) | NSW | BANKS | GRIFFITH | Qld | (1.4%) | -0.2% | |
| 0.0% | (1.6%) | Qld | PETRIE | MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) | Vic | (1.5%) | +0.1% |
| +0.2% | (1.8%) | Qld | DICKSON | BRADDON | Tas | (1.6%) | -0.6% |
| (2.1%) | WA | HASLUCK | DUNKLEY | Vic | (1.7%) | +3.2% | |
| (2.3%) | NSW | PAGE | MACQUARIE | NSW | (2.2%) | ||
| +1.1% | (2.5%) | Vic | LA TROBE | ISAACS | Vic | (2.4%) | -3.3% |
| +7.6% | (2.8%) | SA | BOOTHBY | EDEN-MONARO | NSW | (2.9%) | |
| +2.0% | (3.2%) | Vic | CHISHOLM | PERTH | WA | (3.3%) | |
| +4.3% | (3.3%) | SA | MAYO | RICHMOND | NSW | (4%) | |
| +0.0% | (3.4%) | Qld | DAWSON | LYONS | Tas | (4%) | +1.7% |
| 0.0% | (3.4%) | Qld | BONNER | BENDIGO | Vic | (4%) | +0.2% |
| (3.6%) | WA | SWAN | MORETON | Qld | (4.1%) | +0.0% | |
| (3.6%) | WA | PEARCE | HOTHAM | Vic | (4.3%) | -3.2% | |
| -0.0% | (3.9%) | Qld | LEICHHARDT | DOBELL | NSW | (4.8%) | |
| -1.9% | (4.1%) | Vic | CASEY | JAGAJAGA | Vic | (5.1%) | +0.4% |
| (4.7%) | NSW | REID | McEWEN | Vic | (5.4%) | -2.4% | |
| +0.4% | (4.8%) | Vic | INDI | BASS | Tas | (5.4%) | -0.7% |
| +1.2% | (5.7%) | SA | STURT | LILLEY | Qld | (5.8%) | +0.5% |
| +0.1% | (6%) | Qld | BRISBANE | SOLOMON | NT | (6.1%) | +0.1% |
| (6.1%) | WA | STIRLING | GREENWAY | NSW | (6.3%) | ||
| +0.5% | (6.2%) | Vic | DEAKIN | BURT | WA | (7.1%) | |
| -0.1% | (6.7%) | Qld | KENNEDY | BALLARAT | Vic | (7.5%) | +0.1% |
| (6.8%) | WA | CANNING | FREMANTLE | WA | (7.5%) | ||
| 0.0% | (7.1%) | Qld | BOWMAN | PARRAMATTA | NSW | (7.7%) | |
| -0.7% | (7.1%) | Vic | FLINDERS | BLAIR | Qld | (8.2%) | -0.7% |
| -1.2% | (7.4%) | Vic | ASTON | LINGIARI | NT | (8.2%) | -0.2% |
| +1.6% | (7.6%) | Vic | MONASH (McMILLAN) | WERRIWA | NSW | (8.2%) | |
| -2.9% | (7.7%) | Vic | MENZIES | HINDMARSH | SA | (8.2%) | +0.7% |
| +0.0% | (8.2%) | Qld | WIDE BAY | BARTON | NSW | (8.3%) | |
| -0.1% | (8.4%) | Qld | HINKLER | MACARTHUR | NSW | (8.3%) | |
| -3.5% | (8.6%) | SA | GREY | KINGSFORD SMITH | NSW | (8.6%) | |
| -0.1% | (9%) | Qld | RYAN | CORIO | Vic | (8.6%) | -1.4% |
| +0.1% | (9.1%) | Vic | WANNON | BEAN | ACT | (8.9%) | New |
| +0.1% | (9.2%) | Qld | FISHER | ADELAIDE | SA | (8.9%) | +2.1% |
| (9.3%) | NSW | HUGHES | OXLEY | Qld | (9%) | 0.0% | |
| 0.0% | (9.6%) | Qld | WRIGHT | MARIBYRNONG | Vic | (9.5%) | -2.8% |
| (9.7%) | NSW | BENNELONG | HOLT | Vic | (9.9%) | -4.3% | |
| -0.6% | (10.1%) | Vic | HIGGINS | SHORTLAND | NSW | (9.9%) | |
| (10.2%) | NSW | HUME | PATERSON | NSW | (10.7%) | ||
| -0.0% | (10.9%) | Qld | FAIRFAX | FRANKLIN | Tas | (10.7%) | +0.0% |
| (11%) | WA | MOORE | MAKIN | SA | (10.8%) | +0.1% | |
| (11.1%) | WA | DURACK | RANKIN | Qld | (11.3%) | 0.0% | |
| (11.1%) | WA | TANGNEY | BRAND | WA | (11.4%) | ||
| (11.1%) | NSW | WARRINGAH | FENNER | ACT | (11.8%) | -2.1% | |
| +0.2% | (11.3%) | Qld | FADDEN | McMAHON | NSW | (12.1%) | |
| (11.6%) | NSW | LYNE | HUNTER | NSW | (12.5%) | ||
| 0.0% | (11.6%) | Qld | McPHERSON | CANBERRA | ACT | (12.9%) | +4.4% |
| (11.8%) | NSW | CALARE | CUNNINGHAM | NSW | (13.3%) | ||
| -0.2% | (12.4%) | Vic | GOLDSTEIN | KINGSTON | SA | (13.5%) | +0.1% |
| (12.6%) | WA | FORREST | WHITLAM | NSW | (13.7%) | ||
| (12.6%) | NSW | COWPER | NEWCASTLE | NSW | (13.8%) | ||
| -0.8% | (12.6%) | Vic | KOOYONG | LALOR | Vic | (14.3%) | +0.9% |
| (13.6%) | NSW | NORTH SYDNEY | GELLIBRAND | Vic | (14.7%) | -3.6% | |
| +6.9% | (14.4%) | SA | BARKER | SYDNEY | NSW | (15.3%) | |
| -0.4% | (14.6%) | Qld | MONCRIEFF | CLARK (DENISON) | Tas | (15.3%) | -0.0% |
| (15%) | WA | O’CONNOR | BRUCE | Vic | (15.8%) | +11.7% | |
| (15.1%) | NSW | PARKES | MELBOURNE | Vic | (17%) | +0.4% | |
| 0.0% | (15.3%) | Qld | GROOM | FOWLER | NSW | (17.5%) | |
| (15.4%) | NSW | COOK | WATSON | NSW | (17.6%) | ||
| (15.7%) | NSW | MACKELLAR | SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) | SA | (17.9%) | +0.8% | |
| (16.4%) | NSW | NEW ENGLAND | GORTON | Vic | (18.3%) | -1.2% | |
| (16.4%) | NSW | RIVERINA | CHIFLEY | NSW | (19.2%) | ||
| (16.4%) | NSW | BEROWRA | BLAXLAND | NSW | (19.5%) | ||
| 0.0% | (17.5%) | Qld | MARANOA | CALWELL | Vic | (20%) | +2.2% |
| (17.7%) | NSW | WENTWORTH | SCULLIN | Vic | (20.4%) | +3.1% | |
| (17.8%) | NSW | MITCHELL | FRASER | Vic | (20.9%) | New | |
| -0.3% | (18.1%) | Vic | GIPPSLAND | WILLS | Vic | (21.7%) | +0.5% |
| -1.4% | (19.9%) | Vic | MALLEE | BATMAN | Vic | (22.2%) | +0.5% |
| (20.5%) | NSW | FARRER | GRAYNDLER | NSW | (22.4%) | ||
| (20.7%) | WA | CURTIN | |||||
| (21%) | NSW | BRADFIELD | |||||
| -2.5% | (22.4%) | Vic | NICHOLLS (MURRAY) |
TPOF
Only if you consider criticising the Israeli government as “Antisemitism” .
poroti @ #501 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:27 pm
Depends on the underlying thought. An obsession with the behaviour of the Israeli government which draws on anti-semitic tropes and believes its behaviour to be more vile than mass murderers in the region who you defend aggressively sounds like anti-semitism to me.
TPOF
Re “believes its behaviour to be more vile than mass murderers in the region ” . So you defend them with a bit of ‘whataboutery’ ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-22/wa-government-could-block-livestock-ships-under-state-law/9685204
TPOF @ #500 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:16 pm
It is not anti-semitism to criticise Israel. Many jews do so. Israel is a rogue state. It blows up and shoots children, while building illegal settlements on land that it steals, which land is not even within its borders.
TPOF
The assassination of Rabin and the ascendancy of the RWNJobbies was a tragedy for the whole region.
poroti @ #503 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:38 pm
Oh dear. Whataboutery indeed.
By the same token, let’s put our energies into sending indigenous dope smokers to jail as a higher priority than dealing with bankers ripping people off for millions of dollars.
The more you dissemble the more you smell of rank anti-semitism
Do we get Newspoll tonight?
poroti @ #506 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:53 pm
I agree totally with that. I think Netanyahu is despicable. But the speed with which hackles are raised and assumptions made about everything done by Israel while the same people want further and better particulars and every alternative explanation for mass killings, that dwarf Palestinian deaths and injuries, elsewhere in the same region and the rest of the world needs more explanation than simply squealing ‘whataboutery’ to deflect criticism of the disproportionate approach from some here (and elsewhere dotted around the ‘left’).
TPOF
You defend the indefensible by whataboutery. You defend nation X’s illegal actions by ‘what about’
Jen
No. A week or so from now.
Yabba88 @ #505 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:48 pm
It is not anti-semitism to criticise Israel, just as it is not anti-Islam to criticise Iran. The Israeli government has done many things – or many things have been done by members of its armed forces that deserve the strongest condemnation. But the blanket description of Israel as a ‘rogue state’ is the sort of thing that is concerning.
What do you mean by ‘rogue state’? Do you a State that ignores the norms of civilised behaviour in the way it treats people inside and outside its borders? In that case, why is Egypt not a rogue state? Or Turkey? Or Iran? Or Saudi Arabia? Or, dare I say it, Russia? All of these countries in recent years have waged brutal repressions both inside and outside their borders but they are not often described as rogue states here.
When the only ‘state’ that is described as a ‘rogue state’ because of what is done in its name is the Jewish state it does raise serious questions about unconscious anti-semitism.
poroti @ #510 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 4:02 pm
This from the guy who defends chemical weapons crimes by banging on about Bunnings!
FMD!!!!
TPOF
Unfortunately the whole region became the plaything of empires. Be it the French,British,Ottoman or US. People are people and the average ‘Joe Blow’ in any society does not want to head off to fight/bomb/kill/wage war on the people next door. It all comes down to power and wealth. Those with both want more.
Meanwhile those that lack both suffer.
TPOF says:
Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 2:05 pm
Classic totalitarian disinformation.
Spot on, comrade.
What about Essential? I don’t recall seeing one this week.
poroti @ #514 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 4:08 pm
Nice one para summary of history. Doesn’t save lives now though to bleat about the past.
And nobody and no ethnic group is going to open themselves up to genocide by agreeing that something was wrong in the past and they’ll just hand over power and land. Why do you think Assad drew so much support from non-Sunnis? From Alawites and Christians and Shias? Because they knew that just rolling over because the Assad family were brutal murderers would leave them slaughtered.
And Israel has the same attitude. There would be few in Israel that would have any doubt that the vengeance wrought by Palestinians taking power in Israel would be brutal and deadly and genocidal. People like you can wring your hands as much as like about bad, bad Israel but it only confirms among the Jews remaining in France and in a prospective Corbyn Britain that at least in Israel they could control their own destiny and not be subject to the kind hand-wringing inaction (coupled with self-serving smug assurances that ‘these people’ only have themselves to blame) that Jews faced before and even after the Second World War.
To my reckoning both Newspoll & Essential, if a fortnightly cycle, are both due.
That said, I suspect Newspoll to delay so it is not in sync with Essential all the time.
Jen
NewsPoll is more tri-weekly. Expect one before the budget (May 8) when parliament resumes sitting days.
lizzie @ #519 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 4:25 pm
Or Catherine Brenner who as I understand it attempted to alter a report to remove any suggestion or knowledge of an illegality. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Jen:
I thought Essential came out weekly? Maybe when it was taken over by Guardian they moved to a fortnightly cycle.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/live-sheep-exports-are-not-worth-the-moral-cost-20180421-p4zawf.html
lizzie @ #519 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:25 pm
We watched Deepwater Horizon last night, about the oil rig that exploded creating the largest oil spill in US history. The disaster occurred largely because BP supervisors put profit ahead of safety, pressuring Transocean rig workers to proceed with a drill even though a pressure test had come back unsafe.
The BP supervisors were indicted for manslaughter in the washup, but surprise surprise these charges were eventually dismissed.
Yabba88 says:
Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 3:48 pm
TPOF @ #500 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:16 pm
poroti @ #496 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:06 pm
C@tmomma
Israel being another fanboi of “duel use” bans as they torture the Palestinians.
A bit of casual anti-semitism here. You definitely have no problems with muslims murdering muslims with chemical weapons though.
It is not anti-semitism to criticise Israel. Many jews do so. Israel is a rogue state. It blows up and shoots children, while building illegal settlements on land that it steals, which land is not even within its borders.
The stereotyping is really classically antisemitic.
ItzaDream @ #521 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 4:29 pm
Yep – Here –
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/banking-royal-commission-the-remarkable-hypocrisy-of-amp-20180420-h0z14g#ixzz5DHD4qGx1
Yes we do get NewsPoll
From Patricia Karvelas twitter feed
Newspoll will probably break late in the show
Good balance on the ABC tonight
Why is Barnaby still treated by media as a Cabinet Minister? He’s now just a backbencher, and a thoroughly discredited one at that.
Confessions
Sadly it is about name recognition and ‘clickbaitability’
nice NewsPoll tonight excellent timing.
Essential did change to a 2 week period in their move to the Guardian. so it should come out on, I think, Tuesday.
Times of India.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/union-agri-minister-in-city-to-attend-bollworm-meet/articleshow/63860804.cms?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=TOIMobile
briefly @ #525 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 4:36 pm
Which stereotyping? I repeat : ‘Israel is a rogue state. It blows up and shoots children, while building illegal settlements on land that it steals, which land is not even within its borders.’
Which part of that statement is untrue?
Israel ignores UN resolutions; its behaviour is that of a rogue state.
Zionist apologists are common. They do a disservice to jewish people.
John Reidy @ #531 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:23 pm
Technically, they were still weekly after their move to the Grauniad. They switched to fortnightly last year.
John Reidy @ #531 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:23 pm
Thanks JR!
I really hope the Banks RC permanently takes a couple of points off the L/NP.
Unfortunately I fear most working people are like my wife and are away with the fairies when it comes to their superannuation.
Lizzie
I think I read during the week that the usual go-to man Cormann was in the US so they had to field the apprentice robot O’Dwyer on Insiders instead.
They really are a talentless bunch.
Yabba 88
Which stereotyping? I repeat : ‘Israel is a rogue state. It blows up and shoots children, while building illegal settlements on land that it steals, which land is not even within its borders.’
Which part of that statement is untrue?
Israel ignores UN resolutions; its behaviour is that of a rogue state.
Zionist apologists are common. They do a disservice to jewish people.
_______________________________________
Russia blows up and kills children. And the Syrians drop chemical weapons on them too. UN GA resolutions are meaningless – a pure numbers game of shifting political allegiances. And UN SC resolutions are also meaningless while any one of the permanent members vetoes them.
As I said before, obsessively singling out Israel as the ONLY rogue state in the region (usually accompanied by mad conspiracy, black ops and other incredible theories that would not even pass muster in Hollywood) tends to suggest an anti-semitic bent, especially when pointing at any other state which is Jewish majority is met with diversionary squeals of ‘it’s whataboutery’.
Thanks Dan I knew they moved to 2weeks I assumed when they moved to the Guardian.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iceland-has-jailed-26-bankers-why-wont-we-a6735411.html
Rossmcg
Kelly O’D made a good effort but obviously is not as expert in repetitive bullshit as Cormann!
TPOF @ #540 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:53 pm
So do Americans. And British. I seem to recall at least one incidence of Australians doing it as well.
This is not meant to distract, but reinforce your point about Israel not being the only rogue state involved in the Middle East.
While I am one to think that bad things done by Syria and the bad things done by Israel, are you know, kinda bad by definition, and both should be condemned, those people who like to protect Israel by jumping in hysterically and dishonestly labelling anyone who criticises the state of Israel as anti-Semitic, need to sit back for a minute and realise that Israel cannot be positively discriminated from a state run by a dictator and war criminal. And even if it could get ahead on points in that debate, they are still being compared to an evil war criminal dictator, you know not a credible law abiding decent democracy or monarchy, not even a benevolent dictator.
Just saying that would give me pause to think as I marched in to silence debate by calling critics of Israel names.
As I mentioned earlier and the panel said, the issue with the Government is not so much who they get to front the tough interviews, but their talking points which I assume come from their strategy.
Insiders also raised the Morrison Santa/Bad Santa inconsistency.
WeWantPaul @ #811 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 6:00 pm
Really?
One of the great tricks of demagogues (and Liberals) is to purport to present an opponent’s position but actually take a reasonably argued position and recast it as extremist and absurd. The fact that you have to resort to this kind of patent irrationality much loved by autocrats and propagandists suggests that you may – MAY – have a little more racism running around in your subconscious than you would care to admit to yourself.
Julie Bishop has just seen Kelly O’Dwyers interview on Insiders this morning:
Libs endorse live export
Labor endorses live export
Greens will end live export
https://indigenousx.com.au/gadrian-hoosan-when-water-is-death/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.WtxCdOQh2Yk