Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.
The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.
The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.
The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).
For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.
Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017
Coalition seats | Labor seats | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+0.0% | (0.6%) | Qld | CAPRICORNIA | HERBERT | Qld | (0.0%) | 0.0% |
0.0% | (0.6%) | Qld | FORDE | COX (CORANGAMITE) | Vic | (0.1%) | +3.2% |
(0.7%) | NSW | GILMORE | COWAN | WA | (0.7%) | ||
0.0% | (-1.0%) | Qld | FLYNN | LONGMAN | Qld | (0.8%) | 0.0% |
(1.1%) | NSW | ROBERTSON | LINDSAY | NSW | (1.1%) | ||
(1.4%) | NSW | BANKS | GRIFFITH | Qld | (1.4%) | -0.2% | |
0.0% | (1.6%) | Qld | PETRIE | MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) | Vic | (1.5%) | +0.1% |
+0.2% | (1.8%) | Qld | DICKSON | BRADDON | Tas | (1.6%) | -0.6% |
(2.1%) | WA | HASLUCK | DUNKLEY | Vic | (1.7%) | +3.2% | |
(2.3%) | NSW | PAGE | MACQUARIE | NSW | (2.2%) | ||
+1.1% | (2.5%) | Vic | LA TROBE | ISAACS | Vic | (2.4%) | -3.3% |
+7.6% | (2.8%) | SA | BOOTHBY | EDEN-MONARO | NSW | (2.9%) | |
+2.0% | (3.2%) | Vic | CHISHOLM | PERTH | WA | (3.3%) | |
+4.3% | (3.3%) | SA | MAYO | RICHMOND | NSW | (4%) | |
+0.0% | (3.4%) | Qld | DAWSON | LYONS | Tas | (4%) | +1.7% |
0.0% | (3.4%) | Qld | BONNER | BENDIGO | Vic | (4%) | +0.2% |
(3.6%) | WA | SWAN | MORETON | Qld | (4.1%) | +0.0% | |
(3.6%) | WA | PEARCE | HOTHAM | Vic | (4.3%) | -3.2% | |
-0.0% | (3.9%) | Qld | LEICHHARDT | DOBELL | NSW | (4.8%) | |
-1.9% | (4.1%) | Vic | CASEY | JAGAJAGA | Vic | (5.1%) | +0.4% |
(4.7%) | NSW | REID | McEWEN | Vic | (5.4%) | -2.4% | |
+0.4% | (4.8%) | Vic | INDI | BASS | Tas | (5.4%) | -0.7% |
+1.2% | (5.7%) | SA | STURT | LILLEY | Qld | (5.8%) | +0.5% |
+0.1% | (6%) | Qld | BRISBANE | SOLOMON | NT | (6.1%) | +0.1% |
(6.1%) | WA | STIRLING | GREENWAY | NSW | (6.3%) | ||
+0.5% | (6.2%) | Vic | DEAKIN | BURT | WA | (7.1%) | |
-0.1% | (6.7%) | Qld | KENNEDY | BALLARAT | Vic | (7.5%) | +0.1% |
(6.8%) | WA | CANNING | FREMANTLE | WA | (7.5%) | ||
0.0% | (7.1%) | Qld | BOWMAN | PARRAMATTA | NSW | (7.7%) | |
-0.7% | (7.1%) | Vic | FLINDERS | BLAIR | Qld | (8.2%) | -0.7% |
-1.2% | (7.4%) | Vic | ASTON | LINGIARI | NT | (8.2%) | -0.2% |
+1.6% | (7.6%) | Vic | MONASH (McMILLAN) | WERRIWA | NSW | (8.2%) | |
-2.9% | (7.7%) | Vic | MENZIES | HINDMARSH | SA | (8.2%) | +0.7% |
+0.0% | (8.2%) | Qld | WIDE BAY | BARTON | NSW | (8.3%) | |
-0.1% | (8.4%) | Qld | HINKLER | MACARTHUR | NSW | (8.3%) | |
-3.5% | (8.6%) | SA | GREY | KINGSFORD SMITH | NSW | (8.6%) | |
-0.1% | (9%) | Qld | RYAN | CORIO | Vic | (8.6%) | -1.4% |
+0.1% | (9.1%) | Vic | WANNON | BEAN | ACT | (8.9%) | New |
+0.1% | (9.2%) | Qld | FISHER | ADELAIDE | SA | (8.9%) | +2.1% |
(9.3%) | NSW | HUGHES | OXLEY | Qld | (9%) | 0.0% | |
0.0% | (9.6%) | Qld | WRIGHT | MARIBYRNONG | Vic | (9.5%) | -2.8% |
(9.7%) | NSW | BENNELONG | HOLT | Vic | (9.9%) | -4.3% | |
-0.6% | (10.1%) | Vic | HIGGINS | SHORTLAND | NSW | (9.9%) | |
(10.2%) | NSW | HUME | PATERSON | NSW | (10.7%) | ||
-0.0% | (10.9%) | Qld | FAIRFAX | FRANKLIN | Tas | (10.7%) | +0.0% |
(11%) | WA | MOORE | MAKIN | SA | (10.8%) | +0.1% | |
(11.1%) | WA | DURACK | RANKIN | Qld | (11.3%) | 0.0% | |
(11.1%) | WA | TANGNEY | BRAND | WA | (11.4%) | ||
(11.1%) | NSW | WARRINGAH | FENNER | ACT | (11.8%) | -2.1% | |
+0.2% | (11.3%) | Qld | FADDEN | McMAHON | NSW | (12.1%) | |
(11.6%) | NSW | LYNE | HUNTER | NSW | (12.5%) | ||
0.0% | (11.6%) | Qld | McPHERSON | CANBERRA | ACT | (12.9%) | +4.4% |
(11.8%) | NSW | CALARE | CUNNINGHAM | NSW | (13.3%) | ||
-0.2% | (12.4%) | Vic | GOLDSTEIN | KINGSTON | SA | (13.5%) | +0.1% |
(12.6%) | WA | FORREST | WHITLAM | NSW | (13.7%) | ||
(12.6%) | NSW | COWPER | NEWCASTLE | NSW | (13.8%) | ||
-0.8% | (12.6%) | Vic | KOOYONG | LALOR | Vic | (14.3%) | +0.9% |
(13.6%) | NSW | NORTH SYDNEY | GELLIBRAND | Vic | (14.7%) | -3.6% | |
+6.9% | (14.4%) | SA | BARKER | SYDNEY | NSW | (15.3%) | |
-0.4% | (14.6%) | Qld | MONCRIEFF | CLARK (DENISON) | Tas | (15.3%) | -0.0% |
(15%) | WA | O’CONNOR | BRUCE | Vic | (15.8%) | +11.7% | |
(15.1%) | NSW | PARKES | MELBOURNE | Vic | (17%) | +0.4% | |
0.0% | (15.3%) | Qld | GROOM | FOWLER | NSW | (17.5%) | |
(15.4%) | NSW | COOK | WATSON | NSW | (17.6%) | ||
(15.7%) | NSW | MACKELLAR | SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) | SA | (17.9%) | +0.8% | |
(16.4%) | NSW | NEW ENGLAND | GORTON | Vic | (18.3%) | -1.2% | |
(16.4%) | NSW | RIVERINA | CHIFLEY | NSW | (19.2%) | ||
(16.4%) | NSW | BEROWRA | BLAXLAND | NSW | (19.5%) | ||
0.0% | (17.5%) | Qld | MARANOA | CALWELL | Vic | (20%) | +2.2% |
(17.7%) | NSW | WENTWORTH | SCULLIN | Vic | (20.4%) | +3.1% | |
(17.8%) | NSW | MITCHELL | FRASER | Vic | (20.9%) | New | |
-0.3% | (18.1%) | Vic | GIPPSLAND | WILLS | Vic | (21.7%) | +0.5% |
-1.4% | (19.9%) | Vic | MALLEE | BATMAN | Vic | (22.2%) | +0.5% |
(20.5%) | NSW | FARRER | GRAYNDLER | NSW | (22.4%) | ||
(20.7%) | WA | CURTIN | |||||
(21%) | NSW | BRADFIELD | |||||
-2.5% | (22.4%) | Vic | NICHOLLS (MURRAY) |
Darn @ #444 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 12:49 pm
It is one of Confessions recurrent obsessions to view everything through that prism.
She takes every opportunity to parade her ageism, sexism and racism.
True about the directors Bemused. Not being a corporate person myself I don’t tend to distinguish the different roles.
One thing I do know is executives and the board are supposed to concern themselves with ‘risk management ‘. Clearly they didn’t think the risks that high to abandon their practices. Or that the benefits outweighed the penalties.
The Toorak Toff
I still recall first reading about Throssel in the local papers marking the 50th anniversary of his suicide. It was shocking the way he was treated.
The “sober and stable” government?
How about the drunk-with-power and tottery government?
Lizzie
O’Dwyer is the gift that keeps on giving.A bit like Brian really.
John R™ @ #453 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:04 pm
Governance is a generally poorly understood topic.
In essence, the Directors are supposed to discharge a Governance role, representing the interests of the owners, the shareholders. They commit a serious offence if they don’t do this.
But of course they tend to be drawn from a narrow pool of directors and CEOs with interlocking interests remote from the shareholders.
There were some very interesting comments on the topic made by a Judge in relation to the failures of the James Hardy Directors and a number of big law firms penned articles based on those remarks.
Perhaps the problem with the government’s response to the banking RC is because they are missing the PM, who is overseas.
The ship will be righted and their response will be improved when he returns.
I am sure ratsak would agree.
Actually has Cormann said much apart from (I think) Thursday when asked he said the term might be extended.
The election ads write themselves. “Turnbull wants to give a $13.7 billion dollar tax cut to the banks when they have been ripping off customers for years.””Whose side is he on? Not yours!”.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/opinion/sunday/trump-business-mueller-money-laundering.html
“”Whose side is he on? Not yours!”.”
Turnbull has been on the wrong side of history, and probably when Abbott first won, they thought they could pull off the b grade NBN without people noticing until the 2020’s when it needed rework, they probably thought that they could be on the wrong side of climate change, that renewables wouldn’t work and that that would be chickens that wouldn’t come home until the second half of the century. When Abbott was elected it was too early to predict that wanting to give massive tax cuts to business wasn’t going to be super popular (remember initially they wanted to fund them with GST increases).
With all these things they have pretty much stood in a position that probably looked reasonable (or the risks were always going to realise for someone else to deal with) 7 or so years ago, but boy has history come at these vandals quickly.
Thank you, Jackol, for doing that research and attempting to answer my question. 🙂
I tried to google any reports in the media from 2012-2013 to do with the incident Kelly O’Dwyer referred to and I got nowhere fast. So I can only imagine that the Coalition, with their large, taxpayer-funded staff and access to media and parliamentary archives that I have no access to, must, as a default, go into those archives and try and research for anything they can use to deflect from their own cupidity and culpability by tracking down an angle that has a Labor politician doing something more reprehensible than them or making Bill Shorten look bad and worse than them. Or both!
When, as the couch Insiders pointed out, it would be so much easier and better for the Coalition politically, if they just admitted their political crimes.
Confessions
Dodgy dealings , Russia………………..say no more
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-named-in-panama-papers-20160511-gosvit
Now who could forget the magic Russian Rain Maker. What luck that Rupert’s nephew and member of Truffles fundraising arm the Wentworth Forum was also Australian Rain Corporation’s chairman. Harsh but fair
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/malcolm-turnbull-rain-man,7437
..and the line is so easy — “At the time the Banking RC was first called for, we had just put in place new measures which were designed to address these problems, and we wanted to give these time to work. However, as more evidence became available, it became obvious that the problems were more deep seated than we first understood…”
WWP
Vandals sure is an appropriate description of what they are all about.The NBN is the biggest act of economic vandalism this country will ever see.
…Howard made an artform of taking over a policy position of Labor’s (at least in part) and making it look like his own idea. These guys can’t even do that convincingly.
“When, as the couch Insiders pointed out, it would be so much easier and better for the Coalition politically, if they just admitted their political crimes.”
They can’t admit to being wrong on the economy, if they fold now on the corp tax cut, the banks etc etc, why would those who still cling to the belief (contrary to all actual evidence) that they are better at the economy. They don’t have much to take to this election but I’m assuming they think something is better than nothing at all.
“We are the party that will see the problem and act 10 years after the other parties” doesn’t seem a winner to me.
Speaking about the sorts of Ethics Free Zones that run our countries and big businesses:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/18/belgium-illegally-shipped-96-tonnes-sarin-precursor-syria/?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition
poroti:
Birds of a feather…
The danger is that the voters will have their katharsis with the banks and that means less anger directed at the government
This is why Shorten is trying to keep alive the connection between the government and the banks.
“The danger is that the voters will have their katharsis with the banks and that means less anger directed at the government”
I’m still holding out that democracy is a viable form of government so I have to hope voters aren’t that dumb.
C@tmomma
What a load of crap. Got in our lab. Isopropanol aka “Rubbing Alcohol” aka “horse linament” As for the 95% limit LOL . Gee buy 90% and distil it. Besides which it is easy to make. Reads like one hell of a beat up.
OMG Bunnings are selling Chemical Warfare items
Diggers 125ml Isopropyl Cleaning Alcohol
https://www.bunnings.com.au/diggers-125ml-isopropyl-cleaning-alcohol_p1564443
C@tmomma @ #1715 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:37 pm
Isopropanol is the active component of most non-water-based hand decontamination gels and solution. All health care systems import and use use tonnes of the stuff. This is a distraction from the fact that it wasn’t just the sarin precursors identified at Khan Sheikhoun, it was both residues and metabolites, the latter from victims. The perpetrators were the Russian-backed Syrian government forces.
The big problem for this govt is that its failure to call an RC into the Banks makes it very clear that it is more interested in protecting its mates than protecting average Australians. That is a real, and I mean, real, vote killer. That is a real betrayal of trust. It will be very hard for the govt to change that perception.
WWP
I think voters will know that Turnbull and crew defended the banks against the RC.Its been around for quite awhile now so there would be a definite link between the Libs and opposition to the RC.
I will be very surprised if the Spivs and Arseholes Party isn’t holed below the Newspoll line by the Banking Arseholes Royal Commission. It’s bite will be worse than it’s BARC.
Big news for the day.
Kelly O’Dwyer can’t admit she’s ever wrong.
Julie Bishop has her hair parted on the opposite side.
John Reidy @ #299 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:43 am
Heads on pikes down Adelaide Avenue
poroti @ #473 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:50 pm
Classic totalitarian disinformation.
What I don’t get is Turnbull’s lack of tact and/or grace when announcing the bank RC in December,I thought a clip of that should have been played today on Insiders and O’Dwyer asked for comment.
Perhaps they really thought not much would turn up.
Also Morrison on Friday tried to make the point that the ASIC was aware if the problems and was dealing with it. But as it was an operational matter, as minister he wasn’t aware of the details.
But he had been asked repeatedly if a bank RC was necessary and if not why. A responsible minister in the face of requests would have made inquiries.
Absolute bare faced lies by O’Dwyer today.Should change their name to the Lieberal party.
TPOF
And what ‘luck’ that they ‘discovered’ this shock horror at this very moment 😉
It is so depressing to find out that your country is run by spivs and thieves, and that narcissistic sociopaths run the governments and the coprorations that we have no choice but to deal with, and who have the greatest influence over our lives and how we experience them.
We reward crooks and rip-off the vulnerable.
TPOF @ #480 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:05 pm
Exactly. As if I didn’t know that isopropanol is isopropyl alcohol. The point is, Syria is not supposed to have been allowed to buy it because of what they wanted to do with it. And it certainly wasn’t to use it as Rubbing Alcohol. The fact is they can’t be trusted not to turn it into Sarin and then use it on their own people. THAT is the point!
C@tmomma
wRONg .Syria is allowed to buy it. Joke is the concentration limit.
poroti @ #483 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:13 pm
Given the Russian and Syrian exclusion of independent verification, you might be right. Of course, they couldn’t kill everyone so the truth does get out.
rhwombat,
Isopropanol is the active component of most non-water-based hand decontamination gels and solution. All health care systems import and use use tonnes of the stuff. This is a distraction from the fact that it wasn’t just the sarin precursors identified at Khan Sheikhoun, it was both residues and metabolites, the latter from victims. The perpetrators were the Russian-backed Syrian government forces.
Isopropyl alcohol is also the bomb for cleaning fake suede couches! But I digress. 🙂
No, as I just said, the point was that Syria destroyed their stocks of Isopropanol for the OPCW. Then, contrary to the sanctions which had been imposed upon them, they turned right around it seems from the investigation by Syrian Archive and Knack, just bought more, and not for making hand sanitiser, but to go back to producing Sarin in the buildings the Americans bombed. And then using it.
Confessions – I’d love to see links between Turnbull’s “mates” and Turnbull’s dodgy dealings and the guys he appointed to run NBNco.
John R™ @ #435 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 12:20 pm
Plenty of steps & options along the road short of licence cancellations. Just putting banking licences under yearly review for 3, 5 or even 10 years would push up the cost of wholesale funding and ‘concentrate’ the minds of the bastards. I would expect increased funding costs as a result of the RC and its publicity in future anyway.
Reputational damage is not cost free.
Banks who don’t get their acts sorted out could be broken up. The beetrooter and others including an AFR article have already called for that with AMP.
Boards could be forced to spill, shareholders could be given greater powers over the Banks governance and importantly institutional shareholders could be sanctioned into active governance.
Mind you the Banks and their tory protectors will be in full spin mode (Yes – Kelly the mouth) trying to put time and distance between them and current ‘events’.
It will take Labor to sort it all out.
Again.
C@t
And you know this because ?
poroti @ #486 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:41 pm
Here’s some facts:
…In its response to Clerix, AAE Chemie itself confirmed the transport of isopropanol in a concentration of 95% or higher to Syria but claims that Belgian Customs also bear responsibility for what went wrong.
So it DID export isopropanol in the wrong concentration. To Syria.
Now the Belgian companies may have been unaware of what they were doing, but the Syrians weren’t. They knew what they were buying that dual use chemical in that concentration for. Despite their denials and those of their apologists elsewhere.
poroti @ #491 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:49 pm
Sorry, but I don’t think I saw too many dispensers of Rubbing Alcohol where the attack occurred. I did see people whose symptoms were very, very much like those who had suffered a gas attack. But, you know, it may have ONLY been ANOTHER Chlorine gas attack. I’ll give the apologists for Syria and Russia that much. We haven’t received the report from the OPCW yet.
C@tmomma
The “dual use” crapola is a bit of a joke. Well a sad joke and one ‘weaponised’ by the US in their crushing of Hussein. As Madelaine Albright said half a million dead Iraqi children were “worth It” . You see so many common ‘boring’ chemicals used to produce vital medicines etc can and were classified as “dual use” .
Puffytmd @ #135 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:16 pm
…because voters can’t break the cycle of voting for the Lib-Lab establishment.
C@tmomma
Israel being another fanboi of “dual use” bans as they torture the Palestinians.
poroti @ #494 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:03 pm
And ignoring the fact of the use of isopropanol to make Sarin is an ethical crime and shows moral turpitude, poroti.
poroti @ #496 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:06 pm
How much misleading, hyperemotive and irrelevant bs are you going to dredge up to try and justify the venal behaviour of the Russians and the Syrians, poroti? I’d quit digging that hole if I were you.
An excellent comment from uderneath Katherine Murphy’s last column:
poroti @ #496 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:06 pm
A bit of casual anti-semitism here. You definitely have no problems with muslims murdering muslims with chemical weapons though.