Next federal election pendulum (provisional)

A pendulum for the next federal election, assuming new draft boundaries in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT are adopted as is.

Following the recent publication of draft new boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory, we now have some idea of what the state of play will be going into the next election, albeit that said boundaries are now subject to a process of public submissions and possible revision. The only jurisdictions that will retain their boundaries from the 2016 election will be New South Wales and Western Australia, redistributions for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory having been done and dusted since the last election.

The next election will be for a House of Representatives of 151 seats, ending a period with 150 seats that began in 2001. This is down to rounding in the formula by which states’ populations are converted into seat entitlements, which on this occasion caused Victoria to gain a thirty-seventh seat and the Australian Capital Territory to tip over to a third, balanced only by the loss of a seat for South Australia, which has now gone from thirteen to ten since the parliament was enlarged to roughly its present size in 1984.

The changes have been generally favourable to Labor, most noticeably in that the new seat in Victoria is a Labor lock on the western edge of Melbourne, and a third Australian Capital Territory seat amounts to three safe seats for Labor where formerly there were two. The ACT previously tipped over for a third seat at the 1996 election, but the electorate of Namadji proved short-lived, with the territory reverting to two seats in 1998, and remaining just below the threshold ever since. The Victorian redistribution has also made Dunkley in south-eastern Melbourne a notionally Labor seat, and has brought Corangamite, now to be called Cox, right down to the wire. Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s estimates have it fractionally inside the Coalition column; mine has it fractionally tipping over to Labor.

The table at the bottom is a pendulum-style listing of the new margins, based on my own determinations for the finalisised and draft redistributions. The outer columns record the margin changes in the redistributions, where applicable (plus or minus Coalition or Labor depending on which side of the pendulum they land). Since I have Cox/Corangamite in the Labor column, I get 77 seats in the Coalition column, including three they don’t hold (Mayo, held by Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team, and Indi and Kennedy, held by independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter), and 74 in the Labor column, including two they don’t hold (Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark, as Denison will now be called, and Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne).

For those who like long rows of numbers, the following links are to spreadsheets that provide a full accounting of my calculations for the finalised redistributions in Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. I will do something similar when the Victorian, South Australian and ACT redistributions are finalised, which should be around August.

Federal redistribution of Queensland 2018
Federal redistribution of Tasmania 2017
Federal redistribution of Northern Territory 2017

Coalition seats Labor seats
+0.0% (0.6%) Qld CAPRICORNIA HERBERT Qld (0.0%) 0.0%
0.0% (0.6%) Qld FORDE COX (CORANGAMITE) Vic (0.1%) +3.2%
(0.7%) NSW GILMORE COWAN WA (0.7%)
0.0% (-1.0%) Qld FLYNN LONGMAN Qld (0.8%) 0.0%
(1.1%) NSW ROBERTSON LINDSAY NSW (1.1%)
(1.4%) NSW BANKS GRIFFITH Qld (1.4%) -0.2%
0.0% (1.6%) Qld PETRIE MACNAMARA (MELBOURNE PORTS) Vic (1.5%) +0.1%
+0.2% (1.8%) Qld DICKSON BRADDON Tas (1.6%) -0.6%
(2.1%) WA HASLUCK DUNKLEY Vic (1.7%) +3.2%
(2.3%) NSW PAGE MACQUARIE NSW (2.2%)
+1.1% (2.5%) Vic LA TROBE ISAACS Vic (2.4%) -3.3%
+7.6% (2.8%) SA BOOTHBY EDEN-MONARO NSW (2.9%)
+2.0% (3.2%) Vic CHISHOLM PERTH WA (3.3%)
+4.3% (3.3%) SA MAYO RICHMOND NSW (4%)
+0.0% (3.4%) Qld DAWSON LYONS Tas (4%) +1.7%
0.0% (3.4%) Qld BONNER BENDIGO Vic (4%) +0.2%
(3.6%) WA SWAN MORETON Qld (4.1%) +0.0%
(3.6%) WA PEARCE HOTHAM Vic (4.3%) -3.2%
-0.0% (3.9%) Qld LEICHHARDT DOBELL NSW (4.8%)
-1.9% (4.1%) Vic CASEY JAGAJAGA Vic (5.1%) +0.4%
(4.7%) NSW REID McEWEN Vic (5.4%) -2.4%
+0.4% (4.8%) Vic INDI BASS Tas (5.4%) -0.7%
+1.2% (5.7%) SA STURT LILLEY Qld (5.8%) +0.5%
+0.1% (6%) Qld BRISBANE SOLOMON NT (6.1%) +0.1%
(6.1%) WA STIRLING GREENWAY NSW (6.3%)
+0.5% (6.2%) Vic DEAKIN BURT WA (7.1%)
-0.1% (6.7%) Qld KENNEDY BALLARAT Vic (7.5%) +0.1%
(6.8%) WA CANNING FREMANTLE WA (7.5%)
0.0% (7.1%) Qld BOWMAN PARRAMATTA NSW (7.7%)
-0.7% (7.1%) Vic FLINDERS BLAIR Qld (8.2%) -0.7%
-1.2% (7.4%) Vic ASTON LINGIARI NT (8.2%) -0.2%
+1.6% (7.6%) Vic MONASH (McMILLAN) WERRIWA NSW (8.2%)
-2.9% (7.7%) Vic MENZIES HINDMARSH SA (8.2%) +0.7%
+0.0% (8.2%) Qld WIDE BAY BARTON NSW (8.3%)
-0.1% (8.4%) Qld HINKLER MACARTHUR NSW (8.3%)
-3.5% (8.6%) SA GREY KINGSFORD SMITH NSW (8.6%)
-0.1% (9%) Qld RYAN CORIO Vic (8.6%) -1.4%
+0.1% (9.1%) Vic WANNON BEAN ACT (8.9%) New
+0.1% (9.2%) Qld FISHER ADELAIDE SA (8.9%) +2.1%
(9.3%) NSW HUGHES OXLEY Qld (9%) 0.0%
0.0% (9.6%) Qld WRIGHT MARIBYRNONG Vic (9.5%) -2.8%
(9.7%) NSW BENNELONG HOLT Vic (9.9%) -4.3%
-0.6% (10.1%) Vic HIGGINS SHORTLAND NSW (9.9%)
(10.2%) NSW HUME PATERSON NSW (10.7%)
-0.0% (10.9%) Qld FAIRFAX FRANKLIN Tas (10.7%) +0.0%
(11%) WA MOORE MAKIN SA (10.8%) +0.1%
(11.1%) WA DURACK RANKIN Qld (11.3%) 0.0%
(11.1%) WA TANGNEY BRAND WA (11.4%)
(11.1%) NSW WARRINGAH FENNER ACT (11.8%) -2.1%
+0.2% (11.3%) Qld FADDEN McMAHON NSW (12.1%)
(11.6%) NSW LYNE HUNTER NSW (12.5%)
0.0% (11.6%) Qld McPHERSON CANBERRA ACT (12.9%) +4.4%
(11.8%) NSW CALARE CUNNINGHAM NSW (13.3%)
-0.2% (12.4%) Vic GOLDSTEIN KINGSTON SA (13.5%) +0.1%
(12.6%) WA FORREST WHITLAM NSW (13.7%)
(12.6%) NSW COWPER NEWCASTLE NSW (13.8%)
-0.8% (12.6%) Vic KOOYONG LALOR Vic (14.3%) +0.9%
(13.6%) NSW NORTH SYDNEY GELLIBRAND Vic (14.7%) -3.6%
+6.9% (14.4%) SA BARKER SYDNEY NSW (15.3%)
-0.4% (14.6%) Qld MONCRIEFF CLARK (DENISON) Tas (15.3%) -0.0%
(15%) WA O’CONNOR BRUCE Vic (15.8%) +11.7%
(15.1%) NSW PARKES MELBOURNE Vic (17%) +0.4%
0.0% (15.3%) Qld GROOM FOWLER NSW (17.5%)
(15.4%) NSW COOK WATSON NSW (17.6%)
(15.7%) NSW MACKELLAR SPENCE (WAKEFIELD) SA (17.9%) +0.8%
(16.4%) NSW NEW ENGLAND GORTON Vic (18.3%) -1.2%
(16.4%) NSW RIVERINA CHIFLEY NSW (19.2%)
(16.4%) NSW BEROWRA BLAXLAND NSW (19.5%)
0.0% (17.5%) Qld MARANOA CALWELL Vic (20%) +2.2%
(17.7%) NSW WENTWORTH SCULLIN Vic (20.4%) +3.1%
(17.8%) NSW MITCHELL FRASER Vic (20.9%) New
-0.3% (18.1%) Vic GIPPSLAND WILLS Vic (21.7%) +0.5%
-1.4% (19.9%) Vic MALLEE BATMAN Vic (22.2%) +0.5%
(20.5%) NSW FARRER GRAYNDLER NSW (22.4%)
(20.7%) WA CURTIN
(21%) NSW BRADFIELD
-2.5% (22.4%) Vic NICHOLLS (MURRAY)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Next federal election pendulum (provisional)”

Comments Page 10 of 14
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  1. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 11m11 minutes ago

    O’Dwyer now on #abcnews24 with the same messages about the #BankingRC – obfuscation, misleading statements, blaming Bill Shorten, total unwillingness to apologise. It’s a masterclass of stupidity wrapped up in the inane. #auspol

  2. Darn @ #444 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 12:49 pm

    Confessions says:
    Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 9:30 am
    I give you the face of the modern Liberal Party – Kelly O’Bigmouth.

    The ‘face’ of the modern Liberal party is still Old, White, Male.

    Have to disagree with you on that one Fess. The face of the LiberaL party is whoever spouts their outdated neoliberal ideology. It doesn’t matter whether they are male, female, young or old. They are all tarred with the one brush.

    It is one of Confessions recurrent obsessions to view everything through that prism.
    She takes every opportunity to parade her ageism, sexism and racism.

  3. True about the directors Bemused. Not being a corporate person myself I don’t tend to distinguish the different roles.

    One thing I do know is executives and the board are supposed to concern themselves with ‘risk management ‘. Clearly they didn’t think the risks that high to abandon their practices. Or that the benefits outweighed the penalties.

  4. The Toorak Toff

    I still recall first reading about Throssel in the local papers marking the 50th anniversary of his suicide. It was shocking the way he was treated.

  5. BK says:
    Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 11:27 am
    Stand by for a week of hearing the word “sober” from Coalition MPs this week.
    Guaranteed!

    The “sober and stable” government?

    How about the drunk-with-power and tottery government?

  6. John R™ @ #453 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    True about the directors Bemused. Not being a corporate person myself I don’t tend to distinguish the different roles.

    One thing I do know is executives and the board are supposed to concern themselves with ‘risk management ‘. Clearly they didn’t think the risks that high to abandon their practices. Or that the benefits outweighed the penalties.

    Governance is a generally poorly understood topic.
    In essence, the Directors are supposed to discharge a Governance role, representing the interests of the owners, the shareholders. They commit a serious offence if they don’t do this.
    But of course they tend to be drawn from a narrow pool of directors and CEOs with interlocking interests remote from the shareholders.
    There were some very interesting comments on the topic made by a Judge in relation to the failures of the James Hardy Directors and a number of big law firms penned articles based on those remarks.

  7. Perhaps the problem with the government’s response to the banking RC is because they are missing the PM, who is overseas.
    The ship will be righted and their response will be improved when he returns.

    I am sure ratsak would agree.

    Actually has Cormann said much apart from (I think) Thursday when asked he said the term might be extended.

  8. The election ads write themselves. “Turnbull wants to give a $13.7 billion dollar tax cut to the banks when they have been ripping off customers for years.””Whose side is he on? Not yours!”.

  9. A string of bankruptcies in the 1990s and 2000s may have left Mr. Trump’s companies largely unable to tap traditional sources of financing. That could have forced him to look elsewhere for financing and partners at a time when money was pouring out of the former Soviet Union.

    Indeed, from New York to Florida, Panama to Azerbaijan, we found that Trump projects have relied heavily on foreign cash — including from wealthy individuals from Russia and elsewhere with questionable, and even criminal, backgrounds. We saw money traveling through offshore shell companies, entities often used to obscure ownership. Many news organizations have since dug deeply into the Trump Organization’s projects and come away with similar findings.

    This reporting has not uncovered conclusive evidence that the Trump Organization or its principals knowingly abetted criminal activity. And it’s not reasonable to expect the company to keep track of every condo buyer in a Trump-branded building. But Mr. Trump’s company routinely teamed up with individuals whose backgrounds should have raised red flags.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/21/opinion/sunday/trump-business-mueller-money-laundering.html

  10. “”Whose side is he on? Not yours!”.”

    Turnbull has been on the wrong side of history, and probably when Abbott first won, they thought they could pull off the b grade NBN without people noticing until the 2020’s when it needed rework, they probably thought that they could be on the wrong side of climate change, that renewables wouldn’t work and that that would be chickens that wouldn’t come home until the second half of the century. When Abbott was elected it was too early to predict that wanting to give massive tax cuts to business wasn’t going to be super popular (remember initially they wanted to fund them with GST increases).

    With all these things they have pretty much stood in a position that probably looked reasonable (or the risks were always going to realise for someone else to deal with) 7 or so years ago, but boy has history come at these vandals quickly.

  11. Thank you, Jackol, for doing that research and attempting to answer my question. 🙂

    I tried to google any reports in the media from 2012-2013 to do with the incident Kelly O’Dwyer referred to and I got nowhere fast. So I can only imagine that the Coalition, with their large, taxpayer-funded staff and access to media and parliamentary archives that I have no access to, must, as a default, go into those archives and try and research for anything they can use to deflect from their own cupidity and culpability by tracking down an angle that has a Labor politician doing something more reprehensible than them or making Bill Shorten look bad and worse than them. Or both!

    When, as the couch Insiders pointed out, it would be so much easier and better for the Coalition politically, if they just admitted their political crimes.

  12. Confessions

    Dodgy dealings , Russia………………..say no more

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is named in the Panama Papers as a former director of a British Virgin Islands company set up and administered by law firm Mossack Fonseca to exploit a Siberian gold prospect.

    Mr Turnbull and former NSW Premier Neville Wran on October 29 1993 joined the board of Star Mining NL, the Australian listed company which hoped to develop a $20 billion Siberian gold mine called Sukhoi Log.

    Five weeks later, on December 3 1993, Turnbull and Wran were appointed directors of Star Mining’s subsidiary in the British Virgin Islands, Star Technology Services Limited, that held the group’s stake in the Sukhoi Log prospect, a joint venture called LenaGold.

    The name was changed to Star Technology Services in 1992, after Mr MacNee together with a Russian-Australian, Ludmilla Melnikoff, negotiated with Russian politicians for a 34.88 per cent share in LenaGold.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-named-in-panama-papers-20160511-gosvit
    Now who could forget the magic Russian Rain Maker. What luck that Rupert’s nephew and member of Truffles fundraising arm the Wentworth Forum was also Australian Rain Corporation’s chairman. Harsh but fair

    Malcolm Turnbull: Rain man

    Leader of the Liberal Party wets and heir apparent to the prime ministership, Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is popular amongst progressives, however Sydney bureau chief Ross Jones thinks he’s a drip.

    Malcolm Turnbull is a rolled-gold dickhead.

    Bright when he was young. Like his opponent, a Rhodes Scholar. Rich, successful, pumped. Mr Internet. One half of Australia’s pre-eminent power couple.

    But a dickhead.

    Rough assessment?

    Despite the apparently glorious overarching narrative that is Malcolm’s life, even including his 1999 republic disappointment/failure, two events afford even the most casual observer a glimpse directly through the emperor’s clothes — Raingate and Utegate.

    A leader does not make decisions like these.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/malcolm-turnbull-rain-man,7437

  13. ..and the line is so easy — “At the time the Banking RC was first called for, we had just put in place new measures which were designed to address these problems, and we wanted to give these time to work. However, as more evidence became available, it became obvious that the problems were more deep seated than we first understood…”

  14. WWP
    Vandals sure is an appropriate description of what they are all about.The NBN is the biggest act of economic vandalism this country will ever see.

  15. …Howard made an artform of taking over a policy position of Labor’s (at least in part) and making it look like his own idea. These guys can’t even do that convincingly.

  16. “When, as the couch Insiders pointed out, it would be so much easier and better for the Coalition politically, if they just admitted their political crimes.”

    They can’t admit to being wrong on the economy, if they fold now on the corp tax cut, the banks etc etc, why would those who still cling to the belief (contrary to all actual evidence) that they are better at the economy. They don’t have much to take to this election but I’m assuming they think something is better than nothing at all.

    “We are the party that will see the problem and act 10 years after the other parties” doesn’t seem a winner to me.

  17. Speaking about the sorts of Ethics Free Zones that run our countries and big businesses:

    Knack and Syrian Archive reveal today that Belgian companies have violated EU sanctions against Syria, according to the summons of an upcoming lawsuit.

    Based on information found through the UN Comtrade database, freedom of information requests, and confirmed by the Belgian Customs, we can reveal that a criminal case regarding exports of chemicals to Syria has been opened in Antwerp Criminal Court. This case is brought by the Belgian Customs against three Flemish companies, one managing director and one manager, according to court press judge Roland Cassiers citing the summons.

    Since EU sanctions from September 2013 made export licences compulsory for the export of isopropanol to Syria in concentrations of 95% or higher, Syrian Archive and Knack can report that Belgian companies exported 96 tonnes of isopropanol, a sarin precursor, to Syria between 2014 and 2016.

    Sarin is the nerve gas used by the Syrian government in the Khan Shaykhun attack that killed 74-100 people in April of last year, as attributed by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to Belgian toxicologist Jan Tytgat (KU Leuven), victims of sarin die a painful death. “Diarrhea, urinary flare, narrowed pupils, spasms that give you the feeling of suffocation, vomiting, lacrimation and saliva production: the victim quickly becomes paralyzed, suffocates and dies. The lethal dose of sarin for adults is estimated to be less than 1 milligram.”


    The Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), that oversees compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention, examined samples from and around the impact crater in Khan Shaykhun, finding in laboratory tests that isopropanol was used in the production of sarin used in the attack.

    Isopropanol, also known as isopropyl alcohol, is considered a “dual use” product, much like chlorine, which has ordinary industrial uses (such as in the manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or acetate, where it is favoured due to its low toxicity and small amount of residue). It can also be used in the synthesis process when manufacturing chemical agents such as the nerve agent sarin. Like all chemical weapons, the use of sarin has been banned since the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention.

    The question is: where did Syria get its isopropanol from? In October 2013, Syria acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention. “It was then necessary to destroy its stocks of isopropanol,” says Jean-Pascal Zanders from consultancy firm The Trench, a Belgian expert on chemical weapons.

    According to the OPCW, Syria liquidated a stock of 133 tonnes of isopropanol. However, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs found evidence that since 2014, the Syrian regime has tried to acquire “dozens of tonnes of isopropanol.”

    Data found by Syrian Archive staff in the UN Comtrade database shows that since 2014, an estimated 1.28 million kilograms of propanol and isopropanol (both propanol and isopropanol are registered under the same code) were exported by various countries to Syria, the largest majority coming from United Arab Emirates and Lebanon with a combined 674,880 kilograms since EU sanctions were introduced.

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/18/belgium-illegally-shipped-96-tonnes-sarin-precursor-syria/?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition

  18. I reckon the banking royal commission, if it isn’t already, will be the death knell for this government. If there’s one thing that truly unites ALL Australians, it is hatred of the big banks. And this government took their side over the Australian people.

    Moving from baseball bat territory to dropping a piano on their heads.

    What do bludgers reckon?

    The danger is that the voters will have their katharsis with the banks and that means less anger directed at the government

  19. “The danger is that the voters will have their katharsis with the banks and that means less anger directed at the government”

    I’m still holding out that democracy is a viable form of government so I have to hope voters aren’t that dumb.

  20. C@tmomma @ #1715 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:37 pm

    Speaking about the sorts of Ethics Free Zones that run our countries and big businesses:

    Knack and Syrian Archive reveal today that Belgian companies have violated EU sanctions against Syria, according to the summons of an upcoming lawsuit.
    Isopropanol, also known as isopropyl alcohol, is considered a “dual use” product, much like chlorine, which has ordinary industrial uses (such as in the manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or acetate, where it is favoured due to its low toxicity and small amount of residue). It can also be used in the synthesis process when manufacturing chemical agents such as the nerve agent sarin. Like all chemical weapons, the use of sarin has been banned since the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention.

    The question is: where did Syria get its isopropanol from? In October 2013, Syria acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention. “It was then necessary to destroy its stocks of isopropanol,” says Jean-Pascal Zanders from consultancy firm The Trench, a Belgian expert on chemical weapons.

    According to the OPCW, Syria liquidated a stock of 133 tonnes of isopropanol. However, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs found evidence that since 2014, the Syrian regime has tried to acquire “dozens of tonnes of isopropanol.”

    Data found by Syrian Archive staff in the UN Comtrade database shows that since 2014, an estimated 1.28 million kilograms of propanol and isopropanol (both propanol and isopropanol are registered under the same code) were exported by various countries to Syria, the largest majority coming from United Arab Emirates and Lebanon with a combined 674,880 kilograms since EU sanctions were introduced.

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/04/18/belgium-illegally-shipped-96-tonnes-sarin-precursor-syria/?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition

    Isopropanol is the active component of most non-water-based hand decontamination gels and solution. All health care systems import and use use tonnes of the stuff. This is a distraction from the fact that it wasn’t just the sarin precursors identified at Khan Sheikhoun, it was both residues and metabolites, the latter from victims. The perpetrators were the Russian-backed Syrian government forces.

  21. The big problem for this govt is that its failure to call an RC into the Banks makes it very clear that it is more interested in protecting its mates than protecting average Australians. That is a real, and I mean, real, vote killer. That is a real betrayal of trust. It will be very hard for the govt to change that perception.

  22. WWP
    I think voters will know that Turnbull and crew defended the banks against the RC.Its been around for quite awhile now so there would be a definite link between the Libs and opposition to the RC.

  23. I will be very surprised if the Spivs and Arseholes Party isn’t holed below the Newspoll line by the Banking Arseholes Royal Commission. It’s bite will be worse than it’s BARC.

  24. Big news for the day.

    Kelly O’Dwyer can’t admit she’s ever wrong.
    Julie Bishop has her hair parted on the opposite side.

  25. John Reidy @ #299 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:43 am

    TheGovernment’s proposal to drastically increase penalties for corporate crimes is premature. First it is a thought bubble political fix response that doesn’

    This is similar to the point of an article in the AFR earlier this week, warning against a ‘knee jerk’ response to the RC.

    Possibly if a proper investigation had been held many years ago and those responsible held to account with existing penalties then this might be possible. Now tougher measures are needed.

    As regards penalties, in spirit of finding a middle ground, I note the lamp posts along Northbourne Ave in Canberra are available.

    Heads on pikes down Adelaide Avenue

  26. poroti @ #473 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    C@tmomma

    What a load of crap. Got in our lab. Isopropanol aka “Rubbing Alcohol” aka “horse linament” As for the 95% limit LOL . Gee buy 90% and distil it. Besides which it is easy to make. Reads like one hell of a beat up.

    OMG Bunnings are selling Chemical Warfare items
    Diggers 125ml Isopropyl Cleaning Alcohol
    https://www.bunnings.com.au/diggers-125ml-isopropyl-cleaning-alcohol_p1564443

    Classic totalitarian disinformation.

  27. What I don’t get is Turnbull’s lack of tact and/or grace when announcing the bank RC in December,I thought a clip of that should have been played today on Insiders and O’Dwyer asked for comment.
    Perhaps they really thought not much would turn up.

    Also Morrison on Friday tried to make the point that the ASIC was aware if the problems and was dealing with it. But as it was an operational matter, as minister he wasn’t aware of the details.
    But he had been asked repeatedly if a bank RC was necessary and if not why. A responsible minister in the face of requests would have made inquiries.

  28. It is so depressing to find out that your country is run by spivs and thieves, and that narcissistic sociopaths run the governments and the coprorations that we have no choice but to deal with, and who have the greatest influence over our lives and how we experience them.

    We reward crooks and rip-off the vulnerable.

  29. TPOF @ #480 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:05 pm

    poroti @ #473 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    C@tmomma

    What a load of crap. Got in our lab. Isopropanol aka “Rubbing Alcohol” aka “horse linament” As for the 95% limit LOL . Gee buy 90% and distil it. Besides which it is easy to make. Reads like one hell of a beat up.

    OMG Bunnings are selling Chemical Warfare items
    Diggers 125ml Isopropyl Cleaning Alcohol
    https://www.bunnings.com.au/diggers-125ml-isopropyl-cleaning-alcohol_p1564443

    Classic totalitarian disinformation.

    Exactly. As if I didn’t know that isopropanol is isopropyl alcohol. The point is, Syria is not supposed to have been allowed to buy it because of what they wanted to do with it. And it certainly wasn’t to use it as Rubbing Alcohol. The fact is they can’t be trusted not to turn it into Sarin and then use it on their own people. THAT is the point!

  30. rhwombat,
    Isopropanol is the active component of most non-water-based hand decontamination gels and solution. All health care systems import and use use tonnes of the stuff. This is a distraction from the fact that it wasn’t just the sarin precursors identified at Khan Sheikhoun, it was both residues and metabolites, the latter from victims. The perpetrators were the Russian-backed Syrian government forces.

    Isopropyl alcohol is also the bomb for cleaning fake suede couches! But I digress. 🙂

    No, as I just said, the point was that Syria destroyed their stocks of Isopropanol for the OPCW. Then, contrary to the sanctions which had been imposed upon them, they turned right around it seems from the investigation by Syrian Archive and Knack, just bought more, and not for making hand sanitiser, but to go back to producing Sarin in the buildings the Americans bombed. And then using it.

  31. Confessions – I’d love to see links between Turnbull’s “mates” and Turnbull’s dodgy dealings and the guys he appointed to run NBNco.

  32. John R™ @ #435 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 12:20 pm

    The banking licenses are like the TV broadcast licenses, they are subject to a review but there is no way they would ever be revoked. The banks themselves are just too big.

    Plenty of steps & options along the road short of licence cancellations. Just putting banking licences under yearly review for 3, 5 or even 10 years would push up the cost of wholesale funding and ‘concentrate’ the minds of the bastards. I would expect increased funding costs as a result of the RC and its publicity in future anyway.

    Reputational damage is not cost free.

    Banks who don’t get their acts sorted out could be broken up. The beetrooter and others including an AFR article have already called for that with AMP.

    Boards could be forced to spill, shareholders could be given greater powers over the Banks governance and importantly institutional shareholders could be sanctioned into active governance.

    Mind you the Banks and their tory protectors will be in full spin mode (Yes – Kelly the mouth) trying to put time and distance between them and current ‘events’.

    It will take Labor to sort it all out.

    Again.

  33. poroti @ #486 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:41 pm

    C@tmomma
    wRONg .Syria is allowed to buy it. Joke is the concentration limit.

    Here’s some facts:


    …In its response to Clerix, AAE Chemie itself confirmed the transport of isopropanol in a concentration of 95% or higher to Syria but claims that Belgian Customs also bear responsibility for what went wrong.

    So it DID export isopropanol in the wrong concentration. To Syria.

    Now the Belgian companies may have been unaware of what they were doing, but the Syrians weren’t. They knew what they were buying that dual use chemical in that concentration for. Despite their denials and those of their apologists elsewhere.

  34. poroti @ #491 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    C@t

    And it certainly wasn’t to use it as Rubbing Alcohol.

    And you know this because ?

    Sorry, but I don’t think I saw too many dispensers of Rubbing Alcohol where the attack occurred. I did see people whose symptoms were very, very much like those who had suffered a gas attack. But, you know, it may have ONLY been ANOTHER Chlorine gas attack. I’ll give the apologists for Syria and Russia that much. We haven’t received the report from the OPCW yet.

  35. C@tmomma

    The “dual use” crapola is a bit of a joke. Well a sad joke and one ‘weaponised’ by the US in their crushing of Hussein. As Madelaine Albright said half a million dead Iraqi children were “worth It” . You see so many common ‘boring’ chemicals used to produce vital medicines etc can and were classified as “dual use” .

  36. Puffytmd @ #135 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 2:16 pm

    It is so depressing to find out that your country is run by spivs and thieves, and that narcissistic sociopaths run the governments and the coprorations that we have no choice but to deal with, and who have the greatest influence over our lives and how we experience them.

    We reward crooks and rip-off the vulnerable.

    …because voters can’t break the cycle of voting for the Lib-Lab establishment.

  37. poroti @ #494 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:03 pm

    C@tmomma

    The “dual use” crapola is a bit of a joke. Well a sad joke and one ‘weaponised’ by the US in their crushing of Hussein. As Madelaine Albright said half a million dead Iraqi children were “worth It” . You see so many common ‘boring’ chemicals used to produce vital medicines etc can and were classified as “dual use” .

    And ignoring the fact of the use of isopropanol to make Sarin is an ethical crime and shows moral turpitude, poroti.

  38. poroti @ #496 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    C@tmomma

    Israel being another fanboi of “duel use” bans as they torture the Palestinians.

    How much misleading, hyperemotive and irrelevant bs are you going to dredge up to try and justify the venal behaviour of the Russians and the Syrians, poroti? I’d quit digging that hole if I were you.

  39. An excellent comment from uderneath Katherine Murphy’s last column:

    jclucas 1d ago

    A study by Research Now for the Australia Institute shows that two thirds of voters want higher taxes to create a fairer distribution of wealth in society through more public spending, thereby reducing economic inequality. When asked about raising taxes the Treasurer, who is mired in rigid neoliberal dogma, declares that it is a stupid idea. The country has a social problem with increasing inequality, but government policy only exacerbates it.

    The government ridiculously tries to take credit for the banking royal commission even though it failed to do the right thing years ago and call one. Like the banks, the government betrayed the trust of the people, but won’t apologise for their failure. The PM brushed off calls to do so from the opposition. Scott Morrison refused point blank to express contrition demonstrating that he doesn’t know right from wrong. Kelly O’Dwyer drew a parallel line. In perhaps the most politically inept set of talking points yet, both ministers, instead of apologising, criticised Bill Shorten saying that he was scoring political points on the banking royal commission. He certainly was.

    A study from Green Energy Markets finds that more renewable energy is already locked into the system than will be delivered by Malcolm Turnbull’s National Energy Guarantee by 2030: there would literally be more renewable energy without the Neg. The people of Australia want more renewable energy, but the government wants something else. If there was a climate and energy policy based on scientific, engineering, and economic facts a higher proportion of electricity would be produced by renewable energy sources, and be more inexpensive – and reliable.

    The government’s energy and climate policy is a failure. Emissions are increasing and so are prices. The current Coalition government maliciously destroyed an effective price on carbon in July of 2014 for purely political purposes. Tony Abbott had been put into power by the coal reactionaries in 2009 to fight against the transition to renewable energy, and to support the burning of polluting coal – which poses an existential threat to the planet’s environment, human population and civilization itself. To the coal trolls their goals are more important. Government policy agrees.

    The country is burdened with a regime that doesn’t frame policy based on facts, logic or reason. The Coalition government led by Malcolm Turnbull determines policy, in area after area, based how it will play to a small fraction of the population, a minority of ministers and backbenchers in its own ranks. Economic policy is largely determined by obsolescing neoliberal ideology filtered through the prerogatives of the vested interests, and given the go-ahead by the ultra-conservatives.

    To be able to act in such a fashion the government has developed a distinct disrespect for objective truth and the habit of confabulating their own alternate version of reality – to an Orwellian degree – where what the government says and believes to be so is supposedly true.

    The government has to lie, dissimulate, and obfuscate to cover up the truth.

    Richard Flanagan challenges Australia to realise that “if we don’t create for ourselves a liberating vision founded in the full truth of who we are as a people, we will find ourselves, in a moment of crisis, suddenly entrapped in a new authoritarianism wearing the motley of the old lies”. Having trashed the global economy and the planet’s environment as well, the neoliberal system is now dying a slow and painful death- and the consequences are of utmost relevance to the future. Growing economic inequality, the hubris of the elites, the erosion of the dignity of work, and the rise of right wing nativism are becoming increasingly impossible to ignore by more and more of an electorate who directly experience the consequences of neoliberalism’s failure.

    Australians want a just economic system, a just transition to renewable energy sources, and equal opportunity so that their children will have the chance to realize their goals in life.

    Australians can clearly see the rising tide of dystopia in America, and they do not want it further eroding equity here. The people of this country want a functioning healthcare system, fair wages, a good public education system, affordable housing, and real action on climate change, as well as affordable energy prices. They want social justice.

    And increasingly they realize that all of this would all be possible if the country was run based on progressive, not regressive, policy so that the taxation burden fell fairly and the distribution of resources did likewise.

    However, the death throes of the old system threaten to further destabilize politics, the economy, the environment, and the whole of society.

    It is now time to think and act for the common good. The time for rank selfishness is over. There has to be an up to date, broadminded approach: a vision of an inclusive, pluralistic, egalitarian Australia.

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