Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 17
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  1. Barney in Go Dau @ #192 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:08 am

    Late Riser @ #175 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:43 am

    See that’s the problem when you try to make a statement too general, it becomes absurd.

    The Potato stated in the Guardian interview that he wanted to be PM.

    Canavan has stated in the past that his prime responsibility is to serve the interests of mining companies.

    Those two statements are clearly not lies and so in generalising my original comment you have formed one that is plainly ridiculous and serves no purpose! 🙂

    One purpose though, it made me feel better. 🙂

  2. They’re only ever really united as a party when it’s a rightwinger in the leadership

    Menzies would have regarded himself as being right wing and Labor were regarded as very much left wing >> right down to reds under everyones beds.

    Todays Liberals are more accurately referred to as Conservatives – or thats at least what the likes of the monkey pod etc see themselves and the ‘future’ of their party. Menzies looks a leftie in comparison.

    But its more like the past to many none rusted on voters. Conservative policies are also against the economic interests of the majority of voters, but election outcomes are determined by swing voters not by rusted ons.

  3. Of course, this won’t happen because Turnbull is incapable of every bit of it, from the striding in to the threat to resign.

    Oh he can stride. And then he will puff out his chest. And from there it will like releasing the end of a balloon and letting it deflate.

  4. Smart of Shorten. He addressed the GST problem from another angle and avoids the war between states over the GST rate.

  7. Talking about himself too much:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    6m6 minutes ago

    .@TurnbullMalcolm says he has delivered on the benchmarks that matter around the kitchen table.

  9. Ides

    People who know these things say Cormann and a couple of his mates in the State Parliament run the show in WA and have for some time.
    Bishop may be popular with the punters but she has never struck me as the type to get down and dirty with the branches.

  11. “.@TurnbullMalcolm says he has delivered on the benchmarks that matter around the kitchen table.”

    If he thinks that let me tell you the arrogant bastard must be sitting around more tables in the Caymans than he is in Australia.

  14. Ides of March not.logged in @ #178 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    Fess

    Fraser was a moderate and he led the Libs. Admittedly the party was not as right wing today though.

    That is simply not so.
    Don’t confuse the post-politics moderate Fraser with the hard right Fraser who was part of the coup that overthrew Whitlam.

  18. Confessions @ #212 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:20 am

    Barney:

    You can see why parachuting Costello back would be an attractive option for some.

    I can see why reincarnating Menzie’s would be attractive to some but until they address the issues as a Party and not individuals they’re f@#ked no matter who leads them! 🙂

  20. I can see why reincarnating Menzie’s would be attractive to some but until they address the issues as a Party and not individuals they’re f@#ked no matter who leads them!

    It’s incredible really that they’ve had 10 years to renew (6 of those in opposition) both people and policies, and have done nothing on either front.

    They’re paying dearly for that now though: leaderless and rudderless.

  21. Allen Green@Tank9999

    #insiders #Newspoll
    One thing you will never hear #MSM say

    Bill Shorten and @AustralianLabor have just won another 30 Consecutive #Newspolls

    Tony Abbott says it’s not a popularity contest it’s about the POLICIES

    The public have well and truly spoken about THIS GOVT’S POLICIES

  22. Cormann was on the radio as I dropped the kids at school, and the real positive the LNP have after what 5 years is that a switch to labor would make us poorer and less secure. These guys are just the thick sludge under the scum at the bottom of the barrel.

    How could 48%ish of Australians be considering voting for them.

  23. .@billshortenmp: We believe WA hasn’t been getting its fair share, so @AustralianLabor has created a ‘Fair Share for WA fund’ which will allow greater support for infrastructure above and beyond what a federal govt would normally do.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #SkyLiveNow https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/983138097465516033/video/1
    .@billshortenmp: Anyone who saw the live export footage last night would have been appalled.

    There can be no doubt that animal welfare has gone backwards over the last five years of Liberal government.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2Ju7C9X #SkyLiveNow https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/983140193233289218/video/1
    .@billshortenmp: I’m not like @TurnbullMalcolm, I don’t define the success of my job on Newspolls.

    Mr Turnbull would be well advised to spend less time engaged in a hateful civil war with his backbench.

    MORE: http://bit.ly/2Iz6Irx #SkyLiveNow https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/983142552890032129/video/1

  24. Using my number three crystal ball, I forsee the turnabout for the LNP and in particular for Mr. M.B. Turnbull.

    Tapdances up to the microphone and starts with a joke – A funny thing happened to Bill Whatshisname on the way to the Lodge…….

    Mr. W.B.T. then condemns the enemy of the poor, the downtrodden (Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door! ) etc: the pretender, the would be usurper, (prize for guessing correctly the identity of this horror from Elm Street).

    Mr. W.B.T. then announces and claims for his very own the complete policy details of the Labor Party and denounces the rascally rapscallion (aforementioned E O T P) for stealing said policy from LNP.

    Australian Federal Police to raid all Labor party premises using heavy duty equipment – the Army dude riding about in a weird armoured vehicle in future will be shit out of luck and have to ride his bike to work from now on.

    W.B.T. further anounces a parade in his honour with a simultaneous unveiling of a 30 metre high statue of the Greatest Australian.

    W.B.T. using borrowed huge crowd from Mr. D. Trump Esq then sings new National Song to accompaniment of massed bagpipes and trombones (76).

    The new song is – (I’m not sure about this – sounds a bit like “My Old Man’s a Dustman” intertwined with “I’ve Been Everywhere”.)

    Mucho applausso 👏👏👏👏

    Time for early elevenses. ☕

  25. guytaur @ #221 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    Allen Green@Tank9999

    #insiders #Newspoll
    One thing you will never hear #MSM say

    Bill Shorten and @AustralianLabor have just won another 30 Consecutive #Newspolls

    Tony Abbott says it’s not a popularity contest it’s about the POLICIES

    The public have well and truly spoken about THIS GOVT’S POLICIES

    Yes, if it was a popularity contest the focus would be on the preferred PM.

  26. Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    47m47 minutes ago

    When Malcolm loses his (already narrowing) “better/preferred PM” lead – that’s the knives will come out to play.

    And Rex will run screaming for the hills!

  30. Turnbull’s has four great advantages, reasons he probably will, and should keep the leadership even though he has been a worse PM than Abbott: Abbott, Morrison, Bishop and Dutton

  32. McCain would have been infinitely better than Trump. McCain at least understands cause and effect.

    Republican Sen. John McCain said Sunday that President Donald Trump’s comments that the US military would leave Syria “very soon” had emboldened Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, resulting in the reported chemical weapons attack Saturday that killed dozens of the country’s civilians.

    “President Trump last week signaled to the world that the United States would prematurely withdraw from Syria,” the Arizona senator said in a statement. “Bashar Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers have heard him, and emboldened by American inaction, Assad has reportedly launched another chemical attack against innocent men, women and children, this time in Douma.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/08/politics/john-mccain-congress-donald-trump-syria/index.html

  35. Dave at 10.16,

    The last conservatives in the Liberal party were Killen and Chaney. The rest fall easily into the category of Reactionaries. They would make Gengis Khan queasy.

  36. “President Trump last week signaled to the world that the United States would prematurely withdraw from Syria,” the Arizona senator said in a statement. “Bashar Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers have heard him, and emboldened by American inaction, Assad has reportedly launched another chemical attack against innocent men, women and children, this time in Douma.”

    Yep, McCain gets it.

  37. bemused @ #214 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Ides of March not.logged in @ #178 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    Fess

    Fraser was a moderate and he led the Libs. Admittedly the party was not as right wing today though.

    That is simply not so.
    Don’t confuse the post-politics moderate Fraser with the hard right Fraser who was part of the coup that overthrew Whitlam.

    Correct. How quickly some forget, or simply didn’t know in the first place!

  38. Confessions @ #226 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:43 am

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    47m47 minutes ago

    When Malcolm loses his (already narrowing) “better/preferred PM” lead – that’s the knives will come out to play.

    And Rex will run screaming for the hills!

    They’re both very unpopular. This country has lacked leadership from the moment Rudd embarked on his vengeful destruction of the polity.

  40. “They’re both very unpopular. This country has lacked leadership from the moment Rudd embarked on his vengeful destruction of the polity.”

    I thought the way Rudd brought down Beasley was pretty unnecessary, pretty calculated and pretty nasty, but it is just the way things are down, and have been done since.

    And it was doomed to be at best short term in its benefit but Gillard did lead very well and in the right direction.

  41. My wife has a memory of Fraser permanently imprinted on her mind!
    Fraser (after 1975 election) standing on the top of the Collins Street steps to the Melbourne Club, imperiously watching the scene, puffing on a great cigar!

  43. McCain at least understands cause and effect.

    I reckon Trump understands – he just doesnt care and feels more comfortable operating in a chaotic environment.

  44. Trump’s aggressive attacks on China over trade are putting Republicans such as Hagedorn in a difficult spot — torn between siding with Trump and acknowledging the economic peril to many of their constituents. The issue presents yet another challenge to the GOP in a tough midterm election year even in the rural areas across the Upper Midwest that swept Trump to victory — and where control of the Senate could be decided.

    When China threatened a 25 percent tariff on soybeans, Mike Petefish, who grows the crop over 2,000 acres, feared the worst. Soybeans are a $2 billion business in Minnesota.

    “A 40-cent drop in soybeans, like we saw on Wednesday, meant $50,000 of value evaporating out of my bottom line,” said Petefish, the 33-year-old president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association. “The last time I talked to our banker, he told me that of all his clients — these are all farmers — only four made money last year. We kind of broke even. But this year was looking tough even before the tariffs.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/farmers-who-propelled-trump-to-presidency-fear-becoming-pawns-in-trade-war/2018/04/08/2d110a50-398f-11e8-9c0a-85d477d9a226_story.html?utm_term=.da48fb2ccd2e

  45. Around the kitchen table, the discussion would be the increasing costs of health insurance, education, energy costs and cost of housing including rents. And for carnivores, the cost of a decent steak is becoming prohibitive.
    Meanwhile wages have flatlined.
    So far Turnbull and co are offering tax cuts to corporations stating the the trickle down effect will come into play.

  46. Simon Katich

    Trump does not have a nuanced understanding of geo politics or world trade and economics etc. but nonetheless, he understands chaos and happy to oblige.

  47. Victoria says: Monday, April 9, 2018 at 11:32 am

    Simon Katich

    Trump does not have a nuanced understanding of geo politics or world trade and economics etc. but nonetheless, he understands chaos and happy to oblige.

    **************************************************************
    Trump’s politics of outrage is failing him

    Trump is a demagogue who relies on the angry energy of his supporters. But he finds himself in an untenable position: No matter how many hot buttons he pushes, he cannot arouse the passion he needs on his own side to counter the determination and engagement of those who loathe him.

    The dilemma for Republican politicians tempted to cut and run from Trump is that doing so might only further dispirit the party’s core and diminish Trump’s already parlous popularity. For his part, Trump knows only the politics of outrage. It is looking like a strategy with a very short shelf life.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-politics-of-outrage-is-failing-him/2018/04/08/cd1f2c52-39f8-11e8-8fd2-49fe3c675a89_story.html?utm_term=.e18f0c5b8bec

  48. Dutton seems to have floated to the top of the PM replacement list. Can someone inform me on his broad experience to be a leading contender for PM. Apart from him been an Arsehole it seems to have missed me. Even in the libs would this be enough to qualify?

  49. Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    5s6 seconds ago

    Hard times have come for the Coalition and nothing will change | Katharine Murphy

  50. Whisper
    “Can someone inform me on his broad experience to be a leading contender for PM. Apart from him been an Arsehole it seems to have missed me”

    Errr… you’ve answered your own question.

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