Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
Turnbull to announce his resignation 🙂
bug1 @ #177 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:02 am
Bullsh!t !!!
They need to develop a policy agenda that deals with the issues challenging the Country, not one that purely reflects the ideology of the people in the Party Room! 🙂
That post is in reply to Guytaur’s earlier post about a press conference. I’m wasn’t being serious.
#weatheronPB
Not that I am complaining. You know I will be whinging about the Adelaide Hills cold/wet/fog/misery come winter.
Although this year I am over-prepared with more good dry wood than you can poke… a stick at.
Davidwh @ #183 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:09 am
OOOoooh, yes, you were! 🙂
dwh
FWIW. I got that joke 🙂
OOooohhhh no you didnt!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/09/legal-experts-suggest-design-for-federal-anti-corruption-commission?CMP=share_btn_tw
“I am curious as to what Labor will be putting forward in their budget reply.
Due to the imputations policy changes Labor has put out, I feel that personal income tax cuts is on the table.”
Vic, if they are going personal tax cuts i hope they are modest, and happen in two tranches . The larger in the last year of the ALP’s term. 🙂
There is a good argument can be made for some kind of personal cut that targets lower earners. Give a personal tax cut, but remove or reduce some of the higher earner concessions so their disposable stays about the same. Gives the extra money to those who NEED it and will spend it locally and immediately. Much better value per $ than business tax cuts.
“Turnbull to announce his resignation ”
I’m assuming that means someone reported he woke up with a spine or some new sense of self respect, neither seems all the credible.
Fiona Patton (Reason Party) saying that when she requested a pair, it was refused by the Opposition.
Has Turnbull had his press conference yet?
zoomster @ #191 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:19 am
Yep, she’s said that a few times already.
The Libs have absolutely no credibility in anything they say and do on this issue! 🙂
Thanks BK for your wonderful efforts …so appreciate my daily fix!! Love David Rowe and wonder if anyone can shed light on the creatures on the bedposts and bed end ?
Barney, the two arent mutually exclusive, they can do both.
My son’s name for the Monash Forum – the Flyash Forum.
(For anyone who hasn’t heard the word for a while – “ash produced in small dark flecks by the burning of powdered coal or other materials and carried into the air”.)
Dont they call them ‘The Turnbull Lecture Series’ now?
Some on here believed that it was Labor that refused the pair. How unsurprising, it was Matthew Guyand his fiberals
https://www.johnmenadue.com/mungo-maccallum-manus-a-tourist-destination-or-a-crime-against-humanity/
What a great article
Imacca
Agreed.
I like it. Definitely fits the tone of them.
Interestingly, Faine said he had tried to get a comment from the missing independent about whether or not she did ask for a pair (a ‘spokesperson’ said she did, the Liberals say she did, the government says she didn’t) and she is unavailable.
nath says:
“Sunday, April 8, 2018 at 10:23 pm
Just what the country needs. more tax cuts.”
What the country needs is from MORE TAX COLLECTION from those dodging IT!.
ItzaDream @ #150 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:07 am
As much as I dislike howard – that was one of his strengths – keeping the rabble in line and it was done on the basis that if you stepped out of line that was the end of you in politics.
Brutal but effective.
Voters passed their judgement on him too. Finally. Seat lost as well.
Barney in Go Dau @ #163 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:22 am
Fixed it.
Also this. https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-excerpt-the-bad-guys,11366#.WsVIShACFwc.twitter
What they did was lie. It was conspired, deliberate, detailed, lengthy, and ultimately convincing and effective. A lie. Worse, if that is even possible, it was condoned and celebrated at the highest level! They are openly proud of their skill at lying. Twenty years ago I learned an aphorism. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Trust the LNP, sure can!
I read over the weekend that there is a push in Victoria to make this sort of thing a criminal offence.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/careers/bar-coluzzi-operator-fined-close-to-100-000-for-cashback-scheme-20180406-p4z864.html
One of the people involved is a lawyer with previous form for this. He should be disbarred.
They’re only ever really united as a party when it’s a rightwinger in the leadership. Replace Turnbull with Dutton and watch them all be team players again.
Fess
Fraser was a moderate and he led the Libs. Admittedly the party was not as right wing today though.
bug1 @ #195 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:26 am
One is largely irrelevant without the other.
Abbott got elected.
Policies saw support for his Government fall.
Turnbull replaced Abbott.
His personal popularity saw the Government regain much of their lost support.
Those same policies remained.
Support for his Government has fallen to near Abbott levels.
So, a shit leader was dragged down by shit policies;
and now a popular leader has been dragged down by those same policies.
Forget the personality bullshit, without the right policy settings they’re f@#ked whatever they do on leadership!!! 🙂
Confessions @ #177 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:47 am
Er, what evidence is there that Trumble is anything but your bog standard right winger in thinly veiled disguise?
That cash back scheme should be a very serious criminal offense with closer to 10 than 5 years jail.
Jon Faine is currently interviewing an NBN engineer. Most of the answers are obviously prepared (the guy is obviously reading).
One of the phrases repeatedly used is wtte of: “…meets the current needs of many, many Australians.”
But the NBN needs to be more than that. It needs to do more than deliver you videos and emails; it needs to be able to deliver you services that you might not need now.
It’s not about whether you and your neighbours are able to continue doing what you’re doing a bit faster. It’s about when you have major surgery and your post operative care is delivered via video conferencing; or when you decide to set up an international business in your loungeroom which requires you to send and receive huge chunks of data in basically real time.
If the present needs of many, many Australians change dramatically as the technology advances, it’s better to have a technology in place to deal with that, rather than retro fitting the whole system.
Completing the chain of Fairfax articles that tell us all
• leadershit is a bad, bad thing,
• that we shouldn’t do it anymore,
• enough is enough,
• it’s national insanity
… because it’s {unpopular|like-a-TV-show|destructive|counter-productive|debilitating|etc}, but…
• all of which articles completely overlook the facts that:
(a) This is EXACTLY how Turnbull got to be PM;
(b) This is EXACTLY the standard Turnbull set for himself.
Nice work if you can get it.
dave @ #174 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:41 am
Yep, but as he said himself, the times suited him. There wasn’t yet the global consciousness on climate change, nor the energy crises, nor the kickback against church abuses, nor the drive to gender and sex equality – the sort of things they are pulling themselves apart over – although all those were well brewing. And social media and tweeting and other ways of ratting were undeveloped. But he had more guts than Turnbull, faint praise.
I loath Howard, and everything he did, save for Port Arthur, which kinda was opportunistic anyway.
Bushfire Bill @ #183 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:54 am
Yep – and they were delighted to do it against RGR and with Kill Bill for years.
Plus they will do it all in spades when Shorten becomes PM.
quasar
They are cats he often sneaks in a cat to his pic featuring Truffles. They reference
“In 1981 Malcolm Turnbull was accused by Fairfax Media of killing the cat of his ex-girlfriend Fiona Watson.”
.
https://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2015/10/11/malcolm-turnbull-sued-fairfax-for-accusing-him-of-killing-his-ex-girlfriends-cat-kittygate/
“Malcolm Turnbull’s love letter to ex-girlfriend’s cat
In the hand-written letter, Turnbull told the feline to pass on messages about his love for Nessie’s ‘miss’, Linda Watson. Ms Watson had claimed her cat was strangled to death in 1978”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5498337/Malcolm-Turnbulls-love-letter-ex-girlfriends-cat-revealed.html
When Fraser was a moderate, so too was the majority of the party.
The best course for Turnbull now is the one he should have taken to begin with – stride into the party room, say that the 30 Newspolls demonstrate that what they’re currently doing isn’t working, say that people are either with him or against him, and lay down a new agenda which the party room can either accept or he’ll resign and quit Parliament.
Of course, this won’t happen because Turnbull is incapable of every bit of it, from the striding in to the threat to resign.
The Liberals don’t have anything resembling a leader. Ironically, for a party supposedly composed of a set of rugged individuals who think for themselves, this leaves them helpless. Labor, as a more collaborative organisation, can hold it together when there is no obvious bright shining star to follow; the Liberals can’t.
adrian @ #180 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 9:51 am
I agree with Confessions to the extent their natural position is as far to the right as the next election lets them drift. And whatever moderates they have prefer power to principle, so it’s like – whatever.
Zoomster
We know Turnbull will do no such thing. We have to from the horses mouth. “Business as Usual”.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/08/opinion/unicorns-of-the-intellectual-right.html
Late Riser @ #175 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:43 am
See that’s the problem when you try to make a statement too general, it becomes absurd.
The Potato stated in the Guardian interview that he wanted to be PM.
Canavan has stated in the past that his prime responsibility is to serve the interests of mining companies.
Those two statements are clearly not lies and so in generalising my original comment you have formed one that is plainly ridiculous and serves no purpose! 🙂
I wonder who it will be who leads them first when they return to opposition. If Dutton fancies himself as PM material (assuming he retains his seat) he won’t want to burn out his leadership early. Who else is there? JBishop will likely retire at the next election. ScoMo? Porter will be most likely be gone unless he can switch to JBishop’s electorate.
Who else is there?
Zoomster
Its not a bad idea for Turnbull to do such a thing. Force the numbers. I doubt there is enough members yet behind anyone else.
But as you’ve said, wont happen.
zoomster @ #188 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:04 am
Zoomster, and weren’t the times more moderate then (Fraser’s time – and I thought he was pretty insufferable, over and beyond lancing St Gough, for which there is no forgiveness). The global drift to the right in my lifetime seems scarily real.
Totally agree about Turnbull.
And the NBN.
On Bishop as PM. Who controls the WA members? I was under the impression they are moving from Bishop to Corrman.
Shorten presser now
Ha. Shorten Fair Share for WA.
Not going to be pretty results for the LNP
Confessions @ #193 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 10:08 am
Frydenberg? Cool, been through a few portfolios, Kooyong, good solid liar under pressure.
Confessions @ #193 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 7:08 am
My main take on what zoomster wrote is that the Liberals don’t have anything resembling a single Party!
🙂