BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

One new poll result this week leaves the BludgerTrack poll aggregate all but unchanged.

The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,248 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 45
1 … 38 39 40 … 45

  3. Confessions @ #1900 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:37 pm

    Jared Kushner’s younger brother Josh Kushner has reportedly made a hush donation to an anti-gun violence rally organized by Parkland shooting student survivors.

    The $50,000 donation by the senior White House adviser’s brother—the founder of venture capital firm Thrive Capital, real estate investment platform Cadre, and health insurance company Oscar—was reported by Axios on Sunday.

    http://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushners-brother-who-opposed-trump-donates-gun-violence-protest-march-839911

    He might come to regret that if he finds he has a brother and sister-in-law behind bars at some point!

    Why?

  4. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:02 pm

    …”Don’t start with the ‘its time’ nonsense.
    Any voter who subscribes to that idiocy should have the vote taken off them”…

    .
    So you are a literal fascist?

  5. One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 2013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

  6. Before @TurnbullMalcolm gets carried away with the SA Election victory, with a 7% swing against the Liberals, I just want to point out if that 7% was replicated at the next Federal Election, the results would be as follows –
    – ALP + 32 (104)
    – LNP – 32 (43)

  9. zoomster @ #1475 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:13 pm

    Nicholas

    ‘Labor had to push the boundaries of biotechnology to create a Green clone in order to win Batman.’

    Ged is not a Green clone. She is pure Labor.

    Green clone candidates are like the ones Labor ran in Northcote and in the last election for Melbourne.

    Ged isn’t like that.

    If you think she’s a Green clone, you obviously have the wrong idea about the Labor party and its members, what they stand for and believe.

    I made a post earlier musing on why the Greens can never become the new major party of the left. The essence of that post is that Labor is sufficiently broad to include people left of the Greens current position as well as further to the right. This simply reinforces my point. The fact is that the Labor Party can welcome both Ged Kearney and Kristina Kenneally into their ranks as potential high class talent. I have never seen that in the Greens.

  10. John Reidy @ #1905 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 3013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

    You are of course right.
    The Parliamentary Leader does not get to hand pick candidates. They are selected through party pre-selection processes.

    That said, he made a ‘captains call’ with Kimberley Kitching and I hope that is his last.

    Kimberley Kitching has exceeded my expectations with her performance in estimates but from what else has been revealed about her, I am concerned.

    David Feeney was also part of Shorten’s friendship group and no doubt that helped him to get selected for Batman. That was not exactly helpful.

    I acknowledge that Bill is doing well and he has my support. But I do wish he would review some of his friends and distance himself.

  11. TPOF @ #1909 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:45 pm

    zoomster @ #1475 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:13 pm

    Nicholas

    ‘Labor had to push the boundaries of biotechnology to create a Green clone in order to win Batman.’

    Ged is not a Green clone. She is pure Labor.

    Green clone candidates are like the ones Labor ran in Northcote and in the last election for Melbourne.

    Ged isn’t like that.

    If you think she’s a Green clone, you obviously have the wrong idea about the Labor party and its members, what they stand for and believe.

    I made a post earlier musing on why the Greens can never become the new major party of the left. The essence of that post is that Labor is sufficiently broad to include people left of the Greens current position as well as further to the right. This simply reinforces my point. The fact is that the Labor Party can welcome both Ged Kearney and Kristina Kenneally into their ranks as potential high class talent. I have never seen that in the Greens.

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

  13. Quasar

    Codetermination is the key word. Also in Germany there is a great deal of family owned companies even in the Yuuge sized ones. Which means they have a lot of corporate memory and must consider future generations. Unlike the KPI next years bonus driven outlook of so many other countries’ execs.

    Through a process called “codetermination,” large German companies are required to elect half their board of directors by a vote of their employees, rather than of their shareholders. And it’s “now the economic powerhouse of Europe,”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/07/in-germany-workers-help-run-their-companies-and-its-going-great/

  14. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:04 pm

    …”Bemused,
    Some people do lack a sense of humour.
    My “stalking” tongue-in cheek comment at Cat “…

    .
    In spite of your own opinion of yourself, you are not even remotely amusing.

  15. TPOF @ #1908 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:45 pm

    zoomster @ #1475 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:13 pm

    Nicholas

    ‘Labor had to push the boundaries of biotechnology to create a Green clone in order to win Batman.’

    Ged is not a Green clone. She is pure Labor.

    Green clone candidates are like the ones Labor ran in Northcote and in the last election for Melbourne.

    Ged isn’t like that.

    If you think she’s a Green clone, you obviously have the wrong idea about the Labor party and its members, what they stand for and believe.

    I made a post earlier musing on why the Greens can never become the new major party of the left. The essence of that post is that Labor is sufficiently broad to include people left of the Greens current position as well as further to the right. This simply reinforces my point. The fact is that the Labor Party can welcome both Ged Kearney and Kristina Kenneally into their ranks as potential high class talent. I have never seen that in the Greens.

    A vindictive post from an old codger that has lost his relevance.

    You’re all words and no substance.

  16. bemused @ #1910 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    John Reidy @ #1905 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 3013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

    You are of course right.
    The Parliamentary Leader does not get to hand pick candidates. They are selected through party pre-selection processes.

    That said, he made a ‘captains call’ with Kimberley Kitching and I hope that is his last.

    Kimberley Kitching has exceeded my expectations with her performance in estimates but from what else has been revealed about her, I am concerned.

    David Feeney was also part of Shorten’s friendship group and no doubt that helped him to get selected for Batman. That was not exactly helpful.

    I acknowledge that Bill is doing well and he has my support. But I do wish he would review some of his friends and distance himself.

    You know as well as I do Bill will ‘shift’ his allegiance to whomever can advance his career.

  17. ‘Absence of Empathy says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:08 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 1:56 pm

    …”Even political no-hopers like Greens voters should be able to figure that one out”…

    .
    From memory, you were not even capable of figuring out how (even though you wanted to) to stick a NUMBER 1 in front of your local Labor candidate at a recent federal election.’

    The Greens no-hopers certainly were not in the frame. Waste of space.

  18. Absence of Empathy @ #1914 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    Pegasus says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:04 pm

    …”Bemused,
    Some people do lack a sense of humour.
    My “stalking” tongue-in cheek comment at Cat “…

    .
    In spite of your own opinion of yourself, you are not even remotely amusing.

    Pegasus may not appeal to everyone’s sense of humour but she maintains greater civility than do most of her detractors, among whom I am one. That is why I try to reciprocate.

  19. bemused @ #1912 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #1907 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:42 pm

    Absence of Empathy @ #1903 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 3:40 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:02 pm

    …”Don’t start with the ‘its time’ nonsense.
    Any voter who subscribes to that idiocy should have the vote taken off them”…

    .
    So you are a literal fascist?

    He was admiring Putin the other day

    Anyone sure he is not Putin or one of his bots?

    😆

  20. ‘Absence of Empathy says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:12 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 1:57 pm

    …”The sky here has the sort of beige colour cast it gets when their is much dust in the atmosphere.
    #WeatheronPB”…

    .
    It’s called photo-chemical smog, it occurs in many places that are NOT wherever the hell you live.’

    The sky here has the sort of beige colour cast it gets when their is much dust in the atmosphere.
    #WeatheronPB

  21. Bemused still stalking me, I see, just so he can throw shade in my direction. He just can’t leave well-enough alone.

  22. What age is it that kids progress from thinking everyone thinks like them , 8 ish ?
    Rex hasn’t progressed past that point, many a time confusing his thoughts to universal ones.

  23. Rex Douglas @ #1916 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    bemused @ #1910 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    John Reidy @ #1905 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 3013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

    You are of course right.
    The Parliamentary Leader does not get to hand pick candidates. They are selected through party pre-selection processes.

    That said, he made a ‘captains call’ with Kimberley Kitching and I hope that is his last.

    Kimberley Kitching has exceeded my expectations with her performance in estimates but from what else has been revealed about her, I am concerned.

    David Feeney was also part of Shorten’s friendship group and no doubt that helped him to get selected for Batman. That was not exactly helpful.

    I acknowledge that Bill is doing well and he has my support. But I do wish he would review some of his friends and distance himself.

    You know as well as I do Bill will ‘shift’ his allegiance to whomever can advance his career.

    Well so far that has not been the case.
    He has stuck with people I regard as liabilities to him. They date back to his days at university and even school

  24. Around 40,000 properties across the state are currently experiencing power outages due to fires and severe winds.Please stay away from fallen powerlines and ensure you have a charged mobile & emergency contacts. And please stay safe.For more info go tohttps://t.co/41i15H5pox— Lily D'Ambrosio MP (@LilyDAmbrosioMP) March 18, 2018

    Terrible day in Victoria.

  25. My mail is that Malinauskas will take over from Weatherill.
    I’ve heard good things about him and he has really good gravitas. He’s a good negotiator.

  27. bemused @ #1923 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:56 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1916 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    bemused @ #1910 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    John Reidy @ #1905 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 3013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

    You are of course right.
    The Parliamentary Leader does not get to hand pick candidates. They are selected through party pre-selection processes.

    That said, he made a ‘captains call’ with Kimberley Kitching and I hope that is his last.

    Kimberley Kitching has exceeded my expectations with her performance in estimates but from what else has been revealed about her, I am concerned.

    David Feeney was also part of Shorten’s friendship group and no doubt that helped him to get selected for Batman. That was not exactly helpful.

    I acknowledge that Bill is doing well and he has my support. But I do wish he would review some of his friends and distance himself.

    You know as well as I do Bill will ‘shift’ his allegiance to whomever can advance his career.

    Well so far that has not been the case.
    He has stuck with people I regard as liabilities to him. They date back to his days at university and even school

    You surely haven’t forgotten his infamous ‘shift’ to your boy Rudd ?

  28. Rex:

    I admit to not having paid much attention in the past, but my impression from your comments prior to the Batman by-election is that you were opposed to Kearney’s candidacy because of her union background.

    Yet now you appear to be supportive of her? What changed your mind?

  29. The Greens are busy polishing a shocking defeat.

    Sheridan is polishing Trump. (Sheridan, in assessing Trump/Turnbull/ASEAN/NK/Iran/China for the week, manages to avoid entirely talking about the consequences of the global trade war for Australia.)

    Same old, same old.

  30. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    Rex:

    I admit to not having paid much attention in the past, but my impression from your comments prior to the Batman by-election is that you were opposed to Kearney’s candidacy because of her union background.

    Yet now you appear to be supportive of her? What changed your mind?’

    Program lag.

  31. Dio:

    That sounds positive. Am hoping the Marshall govt is a one-term govt. He hasn’t impressed me at all from the little I’ve seen of him, and his comments backing Turnbull and Frydenberg on energy policy and dissing renewables makes him look like a lap dog ideologue rather than a leader.

  32. Diogenes @ #1925 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:57 pm

    My mail is that Malinauskas will take over from Weatherill.
    I’ve heard good things about him and he has really good gravitas. He’s a good negotiator.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Malinauskas#Political_views

    Asked about progressive political issues in 2011 such as marriage equality, stem-cell research, euthanasia and abortion, Malinauskas said his personal views would be “considered socially conservative” and went on to state “I didn’t get involved in the Australian labour movement because of any of these issues. I believe in the fair go but I get frustrated with left-wing ideology that focuses more on imposing equality than providing for equality of opportunity.

    That’s a worry.

  35. Sheridan is polishing Trump.

    Good grief! How can someone who purports to aspiring to a stable alliance with the US praise anything Trump-related? The man is a walking, talking, tweeting catastrophe of chaos and dysfunction and incompetence.

  36. Confessions @ #1928 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:59 pm

    Rex:

    I admit to not having paid much attention in the past, but my impression from your comments prior to the Batman by-election is that you were opposed to Kearney’s candidacy because of her union background.

    Yet now you appear to be supportive of her? What changed your mind?

    1. She’s not Feeney
    2. She’s a social/economic lefty
    3. Wishful thinking

  37. Rex Douglas @ #1927 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:58 pm

    bemused @ #1923 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:56 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1916 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    bemused @ #1910 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    John Reidy @ #1905 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 3013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

    You are of course right.
    The Parliamentary Leader does not get to hand pick candidates. They are selected through party pre-selection processes.

    That said, he made a ‘captains call’ with Kimberley Kitching and I hope that is his last.

    Kimberley Kitching has exceeded my expectations with her performance in estimates but from what else has been revealed about her, I am concerned.

    David Feeney was also part of Shorten’s friendship group and no doubt that helped him to get selected for Batman. That was not exactly helpful.

    I acknowledge that Bill is doing well and he has my support. But I do wish he would review some of his friends and distance himself.

    You know as well as I do Bill will ‘shift’ his allegiance to whomever can advance his career.

    Well so far that has not been the case.
    He has stuck with people I regard as liabilities to him. They date back to his days at university and even school

    You surely haven’t forgotten his infamous ‘shift’ to your boy Rudd ?

    One of his smarter moves.

  38. Boerwar @ #1930 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:01 pm

    ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    Rex:

    I admit to not having paid much attention in the past, but my impression from your comments prior to the Batman by-election is that you were opposed to Kearney’s candidacy because of her union background.

    Yet now you appear to be supportive of her? What changed your mind?’

    Program lag.

    You just hate lefties.

  39. Rex Douglas @ #1911 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    TPOF @ #1909 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:45 pm

    zoomster @ #1475 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:13 pm

    Nicholas

    ‘Labor had to push the boundaries of biotechnology to create a Green clone in order to win Batman.’

    Ged is not a Green clone. She is pure Labor.

    Green clone candidates are like the ones Labor ran in Northcote and in the last election for Melbourne.

    Ged isn’t like that.

    If you think she’s a Green clone, you obviously have the wrong idea about the Labor party and its members, what they stand for and believe.

    I made a post earlier musing on why the Greens can never become the new major party of the left. The essence of that post is that Labor is sufficiently broad to include people left of the Greens current position as well as further to the right. This simply reinforces my point. The fact is that the Labor Party can welcome both Ged Kearney and Kristina Kenneally into their ranks as potential high class talent. I have never seen that in the Greens.

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

    Mid-left to Centre-left within the ALP spectrum. But willing to jump anywhere, including to Scott Morrison, at hyperspeed if there is an opportunity to wedge Labor.

  42. Fess, shifty Rex will take any position to denigrate Bill. Pre election he was backing the green and bagging Ged as another union hack. After the green flogging, the position has to change to Ged was good,and won despite Bill, because to do otherwise would conflict with his Bill bad meme.

  43. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 3:23 pm

    …”Spoken like a true blue backer of maintaining the status quo of a two party system”…

    .
    Nobody with any say in the matter, is going to attempt to alter our electoral system so as to give advantage to the political party you prefer.

    You currently get 10% of the vote in Federal elections and have about 6% of the representation.
    Figure out how to focus that vote rather than have it thinly spread across the entire country and you will do better.

    Getting rid of the pompous, turtle neck jumper wearing, former Liberal voter you have nominated to run your party would be a good start.

  44. TPOF @ #1943 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1911 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    TPOF @ #1909 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:45 pm

    zoomster @ #1475 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:13 pm

    Nicholas

    ‘Labor had to push the boundaries of biotechnology to create a Green clone in order to win Batman.’

    Ged is not a Green clone. She is pure Labor.

    Green clone candidates are like the ones Labor ran in Northcote and in the last election for Melbourne.

    Ged isn’t like that.

    If you think she’s a Green clone, you obviously have the wrong idea about the Labor party and its members, what they stand for and believe.

    I made a post earlier musing on why the Greens can never become the new major party of the left. The essence of that post is that Labor is sufficiently broad to include people left of the Greens current position as well as further to the right. This simply reinforces my point. The fact is that the Labor Party can welcome both Ged Kearney and Kristina Kenneally into their ranks as potential high class talent. I have never seen that in the Greens.

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

    Mid-left to Centre-left within the ALP spectrum. But willing to jump anywhere, including to Scott Morrison, at hyperspeed if there is an opportunity to wedge Labor.

    Removing the debt ceiling was sensible policy. Austerity is bad policy.

  46. Confessions

    When it comes to Sheridan there is the bigliest of Yuuge fanboidom for USA USA USA. A bit sad really as his other fanboidom is dedicated to Tony Abbott.

  47. That sounds positive. Am hoping the Marshall govt is a one-term govt. He hasn’t impressed me at all from the little I’ve seen of him, and his comments backing Turnbull and Frydenberg on energy policy and dissing renewables makes him look like a lap dog ideologue rather than a leader.
    ____
    Confessions
    Mark my words. Marshall will be a doormat to the Coalition government.

  48. bemused @ #1936 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:05 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1927 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:58 pm

    bemused @ #1923 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:56 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1916 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    bemused @ #1910 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:47 pm

    John Reidy @ #1905 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    One comment I’ll add about Shorten is to look at the quality of candidates Labor has attracted since 3013. For for the Senate and HoR.
    Shorten wasn’t responsible for all of these, but if you had other options who would enter parliament if they didn’t feel the party, in opposition, was functioning and led well.

    You are of course right.
    The Parliamentary Leader does not get to hand pick candidates. They are selected through party pre-selection processes.

    That said, he made a ‘captains call’ with Kimberley Kitching and I hope that is his last.

    Kimberley Kitching has exceeded my expectations with her performance in estimates but from what else has been revealed about her, I am concerned.

    David Feeney was also part of Shorten’s friendship group and no doubt that helped him to get selected for Batman. That was not exactly helpful.

    I acknowledge that Bill is doing well and he has my support. But I do wish he would review some of his friends and distance himself.

    You know as well as I do Bill will ‘shift’ his allegiance to whomever can advance his career.

    Well so far that has not been the case.
    He has stuck with people I regard as liabilities to him. They date back to his days at university and even school

    You surely haven’t forgotten his infamous ‘shift’ to your boy Rudd ?

    One of his smarter moves.

    Very effective.

    Rudd lead Labor to their worst result since the Depression but Bill he held on.

    Bill’s now Leader and Rudd is shouting at his pumpkins.

    It’s no coincidence that Shorten and Bowen are taking their inspiration from Keating and Kevvie is regarded as a crazy old uncle that wears a lamp shade at family do’s.

Comments Page 39 of 45
1 … 38 39 40 … 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *