BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

One new poll result this week leaves the BludgerTrack poll aggregate all but unchanged.

The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,248 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 40 of 45
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  1. Rex
    Malinauskas is definitely Right, esp on social matters, but he has never imposed those views as a minister. He has been Health minister for a few months and didn’t push any agenda.

    BW
    He’s pretty young and ambitious. I suspect he knows he is in with a big chance of being premier in four years if he becomes leader.

  2. Vogon Poet @ #1946 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    Fess, shifty Rex will take any position to denigrate Bill. Pre election he was backing the green and bagging Ged as another union hack. After the green flogging, the position has to change to Ged was good,and won despite Bill, because to do otherwise would conflict with his Bill bad meme.

    Well the SDA and others did get up to no good under her watch.

    Noboby’s perfect, not even Ged.

  3. Sheridan is polishing Trump.

    Good grief! How can someone who purports to aspiring to a stable alliance with the US praise anything Trump-related

    Sheridan loves what Trump has done in the US in the culture wars.
    They are the rights equivalent of identity politics.
    He may not like Trump per se, but wants another Abbott.

  4. poroti:

    I knew Sheridan was an Abottobad but thought he’d gone silent on the US rather than having to spruik the unspeakable.

  5. Diogenes @ #1955 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    Rex
    Malinauskas is definitely Right, esp on social matters, but he has never imposed those views as a minister. He has been Health minister for a few months and didn’t push any agenda.

    BW
    He’s pretty young and ambitious. I suspect he knows he is in with a big chance of being premier in four years if he becomes leader.

    The SA Greens will have something to campaign on then.

  6. Mark my words. Marshall will be a doormat to the Coalition government.

    I wonder if Elon Musk will deal with his govt, and what a change of govt means for his batteries?

  8. 4:57pmJoe Kelly

    Malcolm Turnbull says defeat of ‘ferocious’ energy opponent Jay Weatherill is an endorsement of his National Energy Guarantee.

    Trumble totally deluded as usual.

  11. Slomo was just about hysterical on Speers this AM. More foam than Niagara falls. Speers could hardly stop laughing.
    Bishop casually shopped Dutton. Turnbull told Ciobo to shut up his mouth about joining the EU in a formal complaint to the WTO. Di Natale is contemplating political seppuku. Xenophon, who carefully resiled from his pokies line, in the sand has a new condo in nowheresville.
    The Greens slid down the slippery poll in Batman and South Australia.
    And Shorten adds some more firepower to his cred and a zinger to his team.

    All’s well in the world.

  12. Greensborough Growler @ #1963 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    Player One @ #1949 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1911 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

    Anywhere they think they can get a vote?

    Evidenced by their knee jerk response on the Dividend Imputation issue.

    “We want to make sure that these proposed changes don’t accidentally end up hurting the very people Labor says they want to help,” Senator Di Natale said.

    “The Greens do have concerns about the possible unintended consequences these changes could have on struggling pensioners in particular and we’ll be looking at this proposal very closely to ensure that they are not worse off.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/labors-franking-policy-a-threat-to-holding-batman-20180313-h0xfrf#ixzz5A4yDX5pA
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    Nothing knee-jerk about that. Very sensible response.

  13. Not living there I am in the dark on what Marshall’s attitude to SA Labor’s dealings with Musk might have been.

    I wonder if things were said and allegations made that might now make for a difficult relationship.

    Any contracts that the Tories might want to tear up?

  19. Greensborough Growler @ #1959 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    Player One @ #1949 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1911 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

    Anywhere they think they can get a vote?

    Evidenced by their knee jerk response on the Dividend Imputation issue.

    Interestingly, they expressed great concern for the very same part-pensioners that they screwed over in their deal with the Government to tighten the assets test retroactively.

  22. TPOF @ #1964 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:27 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1939 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    TPOF @ #1932 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    GG @ 4.50

    I thought you liked my earlier post… or were you responding to someone else?

    Sorry about that! Don’t do that again.

    Do what again? I know we are on the same page here, but I don’t like mysteries and I’m really puzzled.

    Mission accomplished. Thank goodness for that!

  23. TPOF @ #1972 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:29 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1959 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    Player One @ #1949 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1911 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

    Anywhere they think they can get a vote?

    Evidenced by their knee jerk response on the Dividend Imputation issue.

    Interestingly, they expressed great concern for the very same part-pensioners that they screwed over in their deal with the Government to tighten the assets test retroactively.

    You mean those very-well looked after part-pensioners that Howard bought off during the mining boom ?

  24. Rossmcg @ #1963 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 2:27 pm

    Not living there I am in the dark on what Marshall’s attitude to SA Labor’s dealings with Musk might have been.

    I wonder if things were said and allegations made that might now make for a difficult relationship.

    Any contracts that the Tories might want to tear up?

    My questions too! My impression is that Marshall was critical of the deal with Musk, but now that there are reports people’s power bills have been reduced as a result, will he revoke the arrangement?

  25. Rex Douglas @ #1962 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:27 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1963 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    Player One @ #1949 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1911 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:48 pm

    Where on the spectrum do you place the Greens Party ?

    Anywhere they think they can get a vote?

    Evidenced by their knee jerk response on the Dividend Imputation issue.

    “We want to make sure that these proposed changes don’t accidentally end up hurting the very people Labor says they want to help,” Senator Di Natale said.

    “The Greens do have concerns about the possible unintended consequences these changes could have on struggling pensioners in particular and we’ll be looking at this proposal very closely to ensure that they are not worse off.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/labors-franking-policy-a-threat-to-holding-batman-20180313-h0xfrf#ixzz5A4yDX5pA
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    Nothing knee-jerk about that. Very sensible response.

    Greens are Libs without the endearing qualities.

    Talk is cheap and Greens do a lot of talking.

  28. ‘BK says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 5:33 pm

    From the ABC’s website –
    “Batman by-election: Labor’s victory is a big step backwards for the Greens and Di Natale”.’
    Sure. The Greens chagrin was Labor’s fault.

  30. Every party has one.

    The overstuffed ego who thinks he’s the life of the party, when every one is waiting for him to jump in the pool. And leave him there.

    I watched the great kev comeback with Annabel Crabbe.

    The greasy, over-weight, smarmy jerk, trying to convince Australia he’d had a hand in cooking whatever-it-was, on his gazilliion-dollar balcony baloney, and he was ever-so-sorry for any mistakes, pig’s heart, you know.

    Same with Richard, poor boy made good with a farm, you know, Di Natale. How was he ever going to reach those vegans, living in a tent, hand-to-mouth, afraid of upsetting the fragile environment, while Tricky Dicky was counting the dollars, of his hand-fed steers, at the market?

    Not going to happen.

    This is the disconnect. It is so easy to spot, now.

  33. geoffrey @ #1737 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 10:29 am

    is anyone willing to estimate how much effect = votes % = seats cost to SA by shorten’s stupid announcement of the dividends tax matter a few days ago. the pub test suggests many think it represents wider changes in super and tax – and even that bowen suggested it did – whether of not the perception is correct it is the perception and shorten did create confusion that could be widespread and arguably affected one or more SA seats.

    Zero!!!! 🙂

  36. South Australians who I know or suspect vote Liberal cite
    1.Teething problems with new Royal Adelaide Hospital
    2. Deaths at Oakden Aged Care

    Then we can add in electoral redistribution in Dec last year that gave Liberals 4 seats, took away one seat

    Slightly frightened when reminded that Royal Commission in Murray Darling water dead this morning
    Unconcerned that low income people will not get solar panels on roof & battery storage
    Disbelieving when we questioned when the Tesla batteries will be turned off or sold

  37. Self funded retirees who are harvesting dividends in their tax free SMSFs should be aware that if Liberals cut company tax to 25% their imputation credits take a 30% hit

    Dividend imputation credits have been great while they lasted but have endangered for the past 3 years under Coalition policy

  38. Billie @ #1989 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:50 pm

    South Australians who I know or suspect vote Liberal cite
    1.Teething problems with new Royal Adelaide Hospital
    2. Deaths at Oakden Aged Care

    Then we can add in electoral redistribution in Dec last year that gave Liberals 4 seats, took away one seat

    Slightly frightened when reminded that Royal Commission in Murray Darling water dead this morning
    Unconcerned that low income people will not get solar panels on roof & battery storage
    Disbelieving when we questioned when the Tesla batteries will be turned off or sold

    They’re very backward voting people. Foolish people.

  39. This may not be true, but does this mean Potatohead knows how much we despise him?

    ListenSport‏ @ListenSport · 55m55 minutes ago

    Breaking. Just told by friend that @PeterDutton_MP told a Lib colleague he fears losing his seat unless he goes to election as leader. Is he taking on @TurnbullMalcolm #auspol #libspill

  42. Just having a look at the booth PV swings in Batman.

    Only looking at booths where the 2PP swing was >4% either way and a couple of interesting (to me anyway) observations.

    There seems to be a very very very strong correlation between the PV swing to the Greens and the Level of Liberal Primary in 16.

    However the ALP swing is very very strongly inversely proportional to the level of the Labor PV in 16 (independent of the Lib PV).

    Someone better at stats would have to confirm, but it seems to me that the result for the Greens is even worse than it looks at first flush.

    It looks suspiciously like more of the Lib vote has parked with the Greens (more Lib votes up for grabs = higher swing to Greens), but that Ged has rebuilt Labor’s primary in areas where they were struggling the most. Especially around Northcote where Ged picked up 13% on PV in both Northcote West and Northcote South and Alex dropped about 5% in PV in both. The hypothesis being that Feeney was suppressing the Labor vote in the south of the electorate which Kearney has reversed and should be more ‘sticky’, but the Greens gains are more likely to evaporate at the general election when these voters return to their Liberal Party home.

  43. lizzie @ #1989 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:55 pm

    This may not be true, but does this mean Potatohead knows how much we despise him?

    ListenSport‏ @ListenSport · 55m55 minutes ago

    Breaking. Just told by friend that @PeterDutton_MP told a Lib colleague he fears losing his seat unless he goes to election as leader. Is he taking on @TurnbullMalcolm #auspol #libspill

    He might hold his seat. But the Libs would be decimated!

  44. Lizzie

    My first thought this morning when I read of Jewellery Bishop’s slap down of Dutton on the South African farmers was that it went a bit beyond the usual polite disagreement with a cabinet colleague and may have been related to leadership issues.

    History says that if Dutton hasn’t got her on side he hasn’t a chance.

  46. ratsak @ #1995 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    Just having a look at the booth PV swings in Batman.

    Only looking at booths where the 2PP swing was >4% either way and a couple of interesting (to me anyway) observations.

    There seems to be a very very very strong correlation between the PV swing to the Greens and the Level of Liberal Primary in 16.

    However the ALP swing is very very strongly inversely proportional to the level of the Labor PV in 16 (independent of the Lib PV).

    Someone better at stats would have to confirm, but it seems to me that the result for the Greens is even worse than it looks at first flush.

    It looks suspiciously like more of the Lib vote has parked with the Greens (more Lib votes up for grabs = higher swing to Greens), but that Ged has rebuilt Labor’s primary in areas where they were struggling the most. Especially around Northcote where Ged picked up 13% on PV in both Northcote West and Northcote South and Alex dropped about 5% in PV in both. The hypothesis being that Feeney was suppressing the Labor vote in the south of the electorate which Kearney has reversed and should be more ‘sticky’, but the Greens gains are more likely to evaporate at the general election when these voters return to their Liberal Party home.

    Your hypothesis is essentially confirming Labor voters want genuine lefties and reject the Feeney ‘right’ types.

  47. ratsak @ #1992 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    Just having a look at the booth PV swings in Batman.

    Only looking at booths where the 2PP swing was >4% either way and a couple of interesting (to me anyway) observations.

    There seems to be a very very very strong correlation between the PV swing to the Greens and the Level of Liberal Primary in 16.

    However the ALP swing is very very strongly inversely proportional to the level of the Labor PV in 16 (independent of the Lib PV).

    Someone better at stats would have to confirm, but it seems to me that the result for the Greens is even worse than it looks at first flush.

    It looks suspiciously like more of the Lib vote has parked with the Greens (more Lib votes up for grabs = higher swing to Greens), but that Ged has rebuilt Labor’s primary in areas where they were struggling the most. Especially around Northcote where Ged picked up 13% on PV in both Northcote West and Northcote South and Alex dropped about 5% in PV in both. The hypothesis being that Feeney was suppressing the Labor vote in the south of the electorate which Kearney has reversed and should be more ‘sticky’, but the Greens gains are more likely to evaporate at the general election when these voters return to their Liberal Party home.

    Quality candidate from the area delivers for Labor .

  48. Breaking. Just told by friend that @PeterDutton_MP told a Lib colleague he fears losing his seat unless he goes to election as leader. Is he taking on @TurnbullMalcolm #auspol #libspill

    Sounds like whiteanting mischief making to me.

  49. lizzie

    I suspect his recent Boer love etc is about capturing first preferences from the PHON demographic in his electorate. There have been a few posts about his electorate being vulnerable.

  50. I was the one who brought up the use of the suffix tard
    Bemused – I’m definitely not a sensitive soul – just someone who listened to my daughter who found my use of the suffix tard attached to whichever descriptor I was unhappy with to be insulting to special needs people and their friends and family- who she has taught dance to since she was 13
    You can keep using it, as can anyone else, I really don’t care.
    I brought it up In a polite manner , in case people here didn’t realize a whole community found the practice insulting. I did not say people must stop using it. I’m not a censor.
    I love that you now say your use of tard is an abbreviation of dastard which because of my intervention you say you now have to type in full. Tells me all I need to know
    As a lurker I now understand how people get frustrated with your one on one arguments
    Keep fighting the good fight Bemused

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