BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

One new poll result this week leaves the BludgerTrack poll aggregate all but unchanged.

The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,248 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 45
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  2. Clever Dick leaking against his own candidate?

    Nonetheless, the Batman campaign has exposed internal problems in the Greens which have been bubbling for some time, including tensions between Senator Di Natale and his deputy Adam Bandt. Ms Bhathal was aligned with Mr Bandt and some in the party were blaming the leaks on Senator Di Natale, or someone close to him.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/greens-rupture-over-batman-loss-minor-parties-on-the-nose-20180317-h0xme4#ixzz5A58hPFlC
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    Nonetheless, the Batman campaign has exposed internal problems in the Greens which have been bubbling for some time, including tensions between Senator Di Natale and his deputy Adam Bandt. Ms Bhathal was aligned with Mr Bandt and some in the party were blaming the leaks on Senator Di Natale, or someone close to him.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/greens-rupture-over-batman-loss-minor-parties-on-the-nose-20180317-h0xme4#ixzz5A58hPFlC
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  3. GG

    does that mean the Greens are a political party with internal battles over policy and personality and ambition just like the two they despise and profess to be different to?

    Whoever would have thought?

  4. CPSU‏ @CPSUnion · 5h5 hours ago

    ATO are outsourcing the people you call to get advice about the tax system. They’re paying multinat Stellar $50 an hour but the workers are getting less than half of that. Who wins? Not the public & not the staff. #changetherules

  5. Clever Dick leaking against his own candidate?

    I’d never have thought even the tricky, ‘too clever by half’ Di Natale would stoop to that level!

    There is something very, very rotten in the Greens party.

  8. ratsak @ #1991 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    Just having a look at the booth PV swings in Batman.

    Only looking at booths where the 2PP swing was >4% either way and a couple of interesting (to me anyway) observations.

    There seems to be a very very very strong correlation between the PV swing to the Greens and the Level of Liberal Primary in 16.

    However the ALP swing is very very strongly inversely proportional to the level of the Labor PV in 16 (independent of the Lib PV).

    Someone better at stats would have to confirm, but it seems to me that the result for the Greens is even worse than it looks at first flush.

    It looks suspiciously like more of the Lib vote has parked with the Greens (more Lib votes up for grabs = higher swing to Greens), but that Ged has rebuilt Labor’s primary in areas where they were struggling the most. Especially around Northcote where Ged picked up 13% on PV in both Northcote West and Northcote South and Alex dropped about 5% in PV in both. The hypothesis being that Feeney was suppressing the Labor vote in the south of the electorate which Kearney has reversed and should be more ‘sticky’, but the Greens gains are more likely to evaporate at the general election when these voters return to their Liberal Party home.

    Without looking at the numbers themselves, that analysis would make sense. For all my bagging of the Greens party as it now is, Greens voters it seems to me have a greater proportion of people who actually think about where there vote is going and vote on issues and the candidates, rather than just follow what they have always done (note that I said greater proportion, not a general rule. In my view the vast bulk of voters who support all parties don’t think about politics at all, they just follow their habits unless something causes them to change).

    So Labor voters who didn’t think much of Feeney in 2016 (and the fact we had this by-election shows how correct they were, regardless of which faction he came from) might have voted Green then. But with a quality candidate for Labor and a Greens party that seems to have lost its way, they put their vote where they thought it belonged this time. Liberals, on the other hand, only think about the politics. So they did not care what the Greens policies were, as long as they could help give Labor and Shorten a bloody nose.

    Like Plibersek and Albanese, putting Kearney in this seat may well have sandbagged it for as long as they are there from Greens encroachment.

  9. Billie, ‘Self funded retirees who are harvesting dividends in their tax free SMSFs should be aware that if Liberals cut company tax to 25% their imputation credits take a 30% hit.’

    But the dividend should be greater as the companies have more profit after tax.

  10. Confessions @ #2004 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:14 pm

    Clever Dick leaking against his own candidate?

    I’d never have thought even the tricky, ‘too clever by half’ Di Natale would stoop to that level!

    There is something very, very rotten in the Greens party.

    Even with di Natale, that would be on par with the idiotic suggestion that Bill Shorten would screw himself up badly by releasing the dividend imputation policy just to stop Ged winning the seat.

    The only person in politics today who is smart enough to do a blunder like that is Turnbull!

  11. I was in the spa at the public pool today with my Mum. I said to my Mum about the people who voted out a good ALP government. One bloke wearing his gold chain and gold nipple ring took the bait.
    It was an interesting discussion, he got a bit annoyed. Called me a commie. He expects his Emergency Services Levy (on property, vehicles, trailers, boats etc) in the hundreds of dollars a year to be reduced. I told him there is no hope of that. And next time he needs the fire brigade to put the fire out himself because he does not want to pay.
    He said he did not want to pay for druggies and dole-bludgers to get these services.

    He said he voted Xenophon and I said he was even more stupid than the Liberal voters.

    I did a good Pollbludger discussion with him, including labelling him a parasite for wanting the benefits of society without contributing to it, and that people like him should be condemned for putting a doormat in power and for the four years of hell we are in for in this state.

    He started by saying he was a labor man but he did not vote labor this time because ….. yeah, you know the rest. I said he was a liar, he never voted Labor in his life, then he denied he ever said that.

    He has worked and paid taxes all his life and does not see why he should support others. (While sitting in a hot spa in a multi-million dollar covered public swimming complex in Elizabeth.)

    Well, I squashed him like a bug, and it was a good feeling.

  12. The only person in politics today who is smart enough to do a blunder like that is Turnbull!

    Yep Turnbull is an experienced hand at kicking himself in the teeth!

  13. TPOF

    I like that analysis. I would not vote Labor 1 in the Senate while Joe Bullock headed the WA ticket.

    Many people who would have voted Labor may have felt the same about Feeney after his train wrecks in the 2016 campaign.

    S44 has done Labor a favour. Got rid of a dud and elected someone who I believe will be a prominent player in the future.

  14. Greensborough Growler @ #2005 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    Clever Dick leaking against his own candidate?

    Nonetheless, the Batman campaign has exposed internal problems in the Greens which have been bubbling for some time, including tensions between Senator Di Natale and his deputy Adam Bandt. Ms Bhathal was aligned with Mr Bandt and some in the party were blaming the leaks on Senator Di Natale, or someone close to him.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/greens-rupture-over-batman-loss-minor-parties-on-the-nose-20180317-h0xme4#ixzz5A58hPFlC
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    Nonetheless, the Batman campaign has exposed internal problems in the Greens which have been bubbling for some time, including tensions between Senator Di Natale and his deputy Adam Bandt. Ms Bhathal was aligned with Mr Bandt and some in the party were blaming the leaks on Senator Di Natale, or someone close to him.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/greens-rupture-over-batman-loss-minor-parties-on-the-nose-20180317-h0xme4#ixzz5A58hPFlC
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

    So, ‘some’ in the party were blaming the leaks on DiNatale or someone close to him.

    Hmm, my bet is that ‘some’ is in fact their outgoing NSW commie firing her last great shot at the leadership.

  15. Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #2014 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:19 pm

    I was in the spa at the public pool today with my Mum. I said to my Mum about the people who voted out a good ALP government. One bloke wearing his gold chain and gold nipple ring took the bait.
    It was an interesting discussion, he got a bit annoyed. Called me a commie. He expects his Emergency Services Levy (on property, vehicles, trailers, boats etc) in the hundreds of dollars a year to be reduced. I told him there is no hope of that. And next time he needs the fire brigade to put the fire out himself because he does not want to pay.
    He said he did not want to pay for druggies and dole bludgers to get these services.

    I did a good Pollbludger war with him, including labelling him a parasite for wanting the benefits of society without contributing to it, and that people like him should be condemned for putting a doormat in power and for the four years of hell we are in for in this state.
    He started by saying he was a labor man but he did not vote labor this time because ….. yeah, you know the rest.

    Well, I squashed him like a bug, and it was a good feeling.

    Good job , Puff.

  16. lizzie @ #1989 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 5:55 pm

    This may not be true, but does this mean Potatohead knows how much we despise him?

    ListenSport‏ @ListenSport · 55m55 minutes ago

    Breaking. Just told by friend that @PeterDutton_MP told a Lib colleague he fears losing his seat unless he goes to election as leader. Is he taking on @TurnbullMalcolm #auspol #libspill

    No wonder they are all screaming at Shorten – they can see many of them unemployed come election time. Thats all they have.

    Excellent!

  17. meher baba @ #1735 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    TPOF: “No doubt, other opportunities will continue to sought out and the elephant in the room – the tax free status of super funds in payment phase (subject to generous limits on the size of the fund) – will still remain.”

    Nobody in Canberra right now wants to go near the idea of taxing defined benefit pensions, even though these can produce incomes of hundreds of thousands of dollars per annum. I am sure that this is on the grounds of good policy and has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that many of our current and former politicians and senior public servants are members of defined benefit funds.

    MB

    It isn’t quite as you say for all defined benefit pensions.

    For those that come from an “untaxed source” such as the old Commonwealth Superannuation Scheme (I get one of those) the pension is itself taxable but the recipient gets a rebate off their tax of 10% of the amount of the pension (effectively reducing the tax rate by 10%)

    The rationale for this was to establish some rough parity between pensions paid out of funds where some tax had been paid on funds as they were contributed to the scheme and others where there had been no such tax paid, commonly because there was actually no fund. In the case of the Commonwealth, no provision was made for future defined benefit pensions during the working life of the member – the pension is simply paid out of consolidated revenue. This was of course of huge benefit to the government at the time but accumulated large long term liabilities.

    This was part of the rationale for the Future Fund, which is supposed to fund the pensions of commonwealth employees under those old now discontinued funds. However there is no direct link between the Future Fund and the commonwealth liability. The liability is established by legislation and could not not be removed without compensation being paid to continuing pensioners. These funds covered public servants, politicians and military personnel.

  18. Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #2010 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:19 pm

    I was in the spa at the public pool today with my Mum. I said to my Mum about the people who voted out a good ALP government. One bloke wearing his gold chain and gold nipple ring took the bait.
    It was an interesting discussion, he got a bit annoyed. Called me a commie. He expects his Emergency Services Levy (on property, vehicles, trailers, boats etc) in the hundreds of dollars a year to be reduced. I told him there is no hope of that. And next time he needs the fire brigade to put the fire out himself because he does not want to pay.
    He said he did not want to pay for druggies and dole bludgers to get these services.

    I did a good Pollbludger war with him, including labelling him a parasite for wanting the benefits of society without contributing to it, and that people like him should be condemned for putting a doormat in power and for the four years of hell we are in for in this state.
    He started by saying he was a labor man but he did not vote labor this time because ….. yeah, you know the rest.

    Well, I squashed him like a bug, and it was a good feeling.

    One of the best posts on PB of all time

    Love your work

    Love your passion!

  21. “Labor had to push the boundaries of biotechnology to create a Green clone in order to win Batman.”

    Nicolas…how can you expect to post a comment like that and be taken seriously??

  24. The outspoken Liberal National party MP George Christensen has hit out at his own government for its funding of abortion services in Australia and around the world.

    The federal member for Dawson was joined by the incoming Queensland senator Amanda Stoker on Sunday as they addressed hundreds of pro-lifers at a rally outside state parliament in Brisbane.

    Christensen said he was filled with shame when he learned the federal Coalition gave $9.5m to an international planned parenthood agency that he claimed made money from terminations.

    “I’ve got to say that was a disgraceful act,” he said. “It was a very low point I think for our nation.”

    Christensen said he would write to the treasurer, Scott Morrison, this week to urge him to divert funding from an international planned parenthood agency to pregnancy, crisis and counselling services for young Australian mothers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/18/george-christensen-attacks-own-government-over-abortion-services-funding?CMP=soc_568

  27. Mr Christensen and Ms Stokes stoking the fires and putting the fear of Christ into the new Nats Supremo… whatsisname.

  29. “Batman TPP is now 54.64 to 45.36.”

    Yes!! Will it crack 55?? 🙂

    “Breaking. Just told by friend that @PeterDutton_MP told a Lib colleague he fears losing his seat unless he goes to election as leader. Is he taking on @TurnbullMalcolm #auspol #libspill”

    Are the doGs above that good to us?? daS Uberpotatofuhrer rolls Truffle s….Goes to he election as PM, and loses his seat??

    Bill knocks off a sitting PM??

    Bring it on Baby!!!

  31. For all his faults I don’t think we would have seen Brandis at a pro-life rally as his successor Stoker is reported to have been today.

  33. I have mixed emotions on the prospect of Peter Dutton PM, even for a few months before the voters can boot him out (third PM to lose his seat?): dismay and disgust.

  34. Oops….have confused Puff with another poster who joined the Finns on Twitter. My senior moment….love your work, Puff!!

  35. Lizzie

    Does anyone know what George Christensen is actually getting at? Why is he suddenly a god-botherer? As for the new senator, I never thought I would miss Brandis.

  36. “One local Greens figure said the tactics of running hard on federal issues such as the Adani mine and asylum seekers rather than local concerns like Labor was focused on was a big factor in the loss.
    “We got so caught up with speaking to our own base, the votes we needed to win were not going to come from Adani,” the insider said.
    The same person said the preselection of Ms Kearney was also a major contributor because it showed how soft the vote is among Greens voters when given the choice of voting for a progressive Labor candidate.”

    Sounds rational. Lesson there is talk about things the electorate is concerned about, not about yourselves. By election (particularly one that ISN’T going to endanger the Govt majority) seems much more influenced by local, rather than “national” issues.

  38. ”Malinauskas said his personal views would be “considered socially conservative” and went on to state “I didn’t get involved in the Australian labour movement because of any of these issues. I believe in the fair go but I get frustrated with left-wing ideology that focuses more on imposing equality than providing for equality of opportunity”

    Sexy Rexy thinks that’s a bit of a worry.

    Sexy Rexy simply has no fucking idea about the Labor Party and why it is the only progressive movement in this country to secure government and improve the life of ordinary Australians at a state or Federal level for 130 years.

    The Labor Party is a broad church of centre and centre left activists and at its best when it focuses on the needs and interests of the ones who brung them. Sexy Rexy will never understand. Princess Peg will never understand. Propeller cap Nicholas is simply clueless and witless at it.

    That last sentence from the Malinauskas quote could have been lifted from Graeme Fruedenberg’s 1969 campaign launch speech for Gough. As I said, no fucking idea.

  39. It does certainly seem that Dutton’s on the verge of making a move.

    I still undecided on whether to be delighted or horrified at the prospect of Prime Minister Peter Dutton. It would surely be a gift for Bill Shorten, but I shudder to imagine the bastardry he would preside over while in office.

    There’s also the worrying (but, I hope, slim) possibility that we’ve all fatally underestimated his political cunning, and he winds up successfully dogwhistling and union-bashing the Coalition back into a TTP lead and goes on to enjoy a long, awful reign as Prime Minister. Personally, I think he’ll sink like a stone – as an Abbott-esque, attack dog opposition leader up against a tired or mildly unpopular Labor government, he could be very effective, but not as the third Coalition Prime Minister in five years with the unenviable task of winning back the great swathes of swing voters who abandoned the government, gave them a second chance, and then abandoned them again. Especially if he has not one, but two bitter ex-PMs white-anting him.

    But, then, my reaction to Abbott being elected Opposition Leader was sheer delight at the Coalition being dumb enough to hand Rudd a landslide victory in 2010, so what do I know?

  40. Ides of March. not logged in @ #2035 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    Lizzie

    Does anyone know what George Christensen is actually getting at? Why is he suddenly a god-botherer? As for the new senator, I never thought I would miss Brandis.

    George belongs to some cultish christian group I think ( he has a virgin mary tat too ? ). But this ploy is straight out of Trumps handbook, one of the first things he did as president was pull money from International groups involved in abortion and birth control.

  41. Ps. puffy. Can I marry you? I have no idea if you are M or F, Gay or straight, but no matter. I’d turn if needs be. We could fly away on Drogon, north of the wall!

  43. imacca:

    On Insiders this morning the ABC journo deployed to the by-election reporting said the Greens had focused on issues that spoke to their base rather than a positive message for electorate residents.

    Plus the negative, personal campaign against Kearney that was evident in the last week would’ve likely turned off quite a few voters. Kearney is genuine, personable and unoffensive, and the Greens targeting her was not a good look.

  44. Asha:

    One thing that would happen under a Dutton PM is the Libs and Nats would unite locked and loaded behind him. No more destabilising and whiteanting to benefit Labor. They’d be a united and focused team.

  45. imacca:

    “One local Greens figure said the tactics of running hard on federal issues such as the Adani mine and asylum seekers rather than local concerns like Labor was focused on was a big factor in the loss.
    “We got so caught up with speaking to our own base, the votes we needed to win were not going to come from Adani,” the insider said.
    The same person said the preselection of Ms Kearney was also a major contributor because it showed how soft the vote is among Greens voters when given the choice of voting for a progressive Labor candidate.”

    I agree with this, but I’d argue that they also alienated their own base with how anti-Labor the campaign was and Di Natali’s utterly boneheaded tax stunt.

  46. rossmcg @ #1994 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    Lizzie

    My first thought this morning when I read of Jewellery Bishop’s slap down of Dutton on the South African farmers was that it went a bit beyond the usual polite disagreement with a cabinet colleague and may have been related to leadership issues.

    History says that if Dutton hasn’t got her on side he hasn’t a chance.

    Have a look for yourself on Insiders.
    Of course the usual suspects here were going on about how terrible she performed, but she was very effective in slapping down Dutton in a firm, polite way.
    It might be damning her with paint praise but I think she really is one of the Govt’s better performers.

  48. Confessions @ #2043 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 7:12 pm

    Asha:

    One thing that would happen under a Dutton PM is the Libs and Nats would unite locked and loaded behind him. No more destabilising and whiteanting to benefit Labor. They’d be a united and focused team.

    Yep. And Turnbull, whose power base is in what is left of centrist (and even left of centre) public regard, will just go quietly. Perhaps he could be paid off with a generous pension or the ambassadorship to the USA. Yeah. Right.

    Oh, and the adoring press gallery, who actually are concerned about Nauru and Manus, will give Dutton a smooth run because he is so endearing. Yeah. Right.

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