The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.
confessions:
Good point.
The continual hatred and undermining of Turnbull by the Coalition’s hard right, ostensibly because of how “moderate” he is, continues to baffle me. He has capitulated to pretty much every one of their demands, pretty much sold out everything he once believed in (or claimed to believe in), and it still isn’t enough.
I mean, fair enough, I couldn’t really blame them if they hated him for his continual own goals and political ineptitude, but it always seems to come back to how “left-wing” he is, and many of his blunders were made possible and/or exacerbated by the monkey pod’s white-anting.
TPOF:
If he was rolled I think Turnbull would announce his retirement at the next election and go. Why hang around in a party that has lost its way?
Turnbull has threatened to leave immediately should he be rolled. This would force a by-election.
Blackmail?
Dutton is sure to lose his seat if he goes to an election as PM 🙂
rossmcg:
I imagine Bishop is sharpening the knives for her own tilt at the leadership, and is doing her best to undermine her main opponent.
I actually hope she prevails. Not because I think she’d make a good PM – I don’t – but because I’ll win roughly $500 if she succeeds Turnbull.
1892CFC @ #2000 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:05 pm
I regret any upset I caused to your daughter, but she was making an invalid assumption. There are a lot of words with the suffix -ard or tard. Check it out. The usage of either suffix is pejorative which is exactly what I wanted to express about the Greens, disdain, contempt or disapproval. ‘Dastard’ comes closest if I can’t just use the suffix.
I admire your daughter for the work she does and did not want to imply any association between her special needs people and their friends. No offence intended.
Check this out for example: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Category:English_words_suffixed_with_-tard
OMFG…. Trump should revoke United Airlines license the ability to fly!
Second dog on a wrong plane:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-flight-3996-diverted-dog-akron-ohio/
Yeah, Turnbull has promised/threatened to immediately resign from politics as soon as he’s no longer PM. But even if he keeps his word – something he doesn’t have a great track record on – there’s nothing stopping him from donning the leather jacket and making life hard for his successor on TV and in print. He strikes me as being spiteful enough to do so.
Boerwar @ #2053 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:24 pm
The Liberals will not lose Wentworth in a by-election, so what blackmail?
C
By-election distraction, period during which there is no-one representing Wentworth. Liberals forced to use up scarce resources. Labor does not have to give them a pair…
Someone was wondering about the name of new National leader, it is:
MickMack Crack and Sack
The Greens would have a big show in Wentworth. It includes numerous LGBTIQ, digital economy denizens and doctor’s wives.
They should target this rather than Sydney and Grayndler
The batteries provided by Elon Musk in SA were installed quickly and would seem to be fairly portable. He is supposed to have given SA a special deal as as it was essentially a demonstration project for his product. If the deal involved rental and not purchase, Musk might decide to move the batteries elsewhere if the Liberals abandon Labor’s renewable energy initiatives.
That would then leave Marshall in somewhat of a pickle and Frydenberg could not rescue him.
‘sprocket_ says:
Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 7:36 pm
They should target this rather than Sydney and Grayndler’
But, but, but… it is a Coalition seat.
Boerwar:
Would they even need to campaign? Mum lives in Wentworth and is surrounded by rich folk whom she says always vote Liberal. Doesn’t matter who the candidate is, long’s they got that magic Liberal next to their name, the voters will fall in behind him or her.
“Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 7:36 pm
The batteries provided by Elon Musk in SA were installed quickly and would seem to be fairly portable. He is supposed to have given SA a special deal as as it was essentially a demonstration project for his product. If the deal involved rental and not purchase, Musk might decide to move the batteries elsewhere if the Liberals abandon Labor’s renewable energy initiatives.”
I’m pretty sure the batteries are owned by a French outfit and they have no intention of taking them anyway, if what I read is true they are making an absolute killing.
Dan Gulberry @ #2023 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:35 pm
Simple, they will be paying 25% of zero instead of 30% of zero.
See the difference?
citizen:
Thanks for that update.
I sense things are about to get interesting on the SA renewable energy front.
In fact the existing battery makes a lot lot more money if there aren’t additional storage options in South Australia and they commit to maintaining really expensive non-renewable power from their small cartel of suppliers. You can get almost free excess wind power and then sell it back at massive highs later in the 24 hour cycle, a little ripper even without the cash flow from frequency services.
You keep adding renewables and storage and eventually you even out the 24 hour cycle and eliminate the arbitrage.
Im not bothered if Turnbull retires or not.Hes just a nowhere man who sold himself to the right wing and bought the PMs job.His legacy is one of a complete failure and disappointment.
“The Liberals will not lose Wentworth in a by-election, so what blackmail?”
Hey , maybe the Greens can win it?? 🙂
A E
How do I let you down gently?
imacca @ #2036 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 7:03 pm
From working phone banks, I can reveal that most of the issues raised are not Federal, not State, but more local council issues!
To get the conversation onto State or Federal issues, depending on the campaign, most voters usually have to be prompted.
PB is not a good sample to draw conclusions from!
PTMD,
You do know that squashing bugs, especially that type, and leaving them in a spa is a Public Health hazard? 🙂
Asha Leu @ #2039 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
You were probably going to be right about 2010, but events intervened.
imacca @ #2071 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:44 pm
Isn’t it ironic that the Greens have their first ever Liberal lite federal leader yet don’t deploy him or party resources to taking seats off Liberals? I personally doubt they’d have a shot in Wentworth, but Mr Employer of Au Pairs would appeal more to the uber wealthy demographic than a Labor candidate or a Bob Brown/Christine Milne type.
Asha Leu @ #2047 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 7:15 pm
Yes.
@Puffy – “A E
How do I let you down gently?”
Landing Drogon on solid ground first?
Dutton PM will show his reasonable side, assuming that he has one. He’ll be endlessly boosted by Newscrap. Other media will boost him to a greater or lesser extent as something new and interesting. He’ll be popular with shoutback radio, the “Liberal” base, the Nationals and the dominant wing of the “Liberals”. The conversation will turn to boats and terror. People who despise Dutton (like most here) will be dismissed as politically correct lefty whingers.
The “Liberal” party contains the seeds of fascism. Dutton PM will water and nourish them. He is dangerous, far more so than that buffoon Abbott or the risible Hanson.
Dan: ‘How will the dividend be greater for companies that currently pay zero tax when the tax rate is reduced to 25%?’
Obviously, no tax, no credits, dividends stay the same.
Someone mentioned to me foreign companies may be a better investment when the credits go. My superfund reported that overseas shares returned 25% last calendar year so maybe they are right.
WeWantPaul
So it looks like Marshall is stuck with Musk’s batteries for the time being.
However firms are very unlikely to invest in renewable power in SA if the new government indicates a hostility to their presence.
Talking of which, a wind farm proposal in NSW has been withdrawn after local residents and councils objected. Ms Berejiklian has created a climate of investing in sports stadiums and toll roads but not renewable energy it seems.
Dutton may be as competent as Ernst Röhm. However …
Dutton has the same death face lack of expression as Putin.
The punters will love him leading torch light rallies.
Beware.
Confessions @ #2059 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 7:31 pm
The time lapse between resignation taking effect and the results of a by-election being declared.
PeeBee @ #2080 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 7:58 pm
Who knows? Maybe the super fund managers. However, Australian dividends from companies that have paid enough company tax will still provide franked dividends. So if you earn enough TAXABLE INCOME to actually pay tax there is no benefit to changing.
Confessions:
Probably not, no, but I wouldn’t think it’s quite as safe as the results of the last few elections would make it appear. Turnbull would have a high personal vote, and he only won by 53-47 the last time Labor won majority government (incidentally, he then skyrocketed to 64-36 in 2010, presumably thanks to the popularity of Leather Jacket Mal.) As the Greens generally poll strongly there, Labor would benefit from a strong preference flow, especially with “Moderate” Malcolm no longer a candidate. I’d also assume that th polling whenever Turnbull is rolled would show a TPP that’s rather worse for the Coalition than their 2007 results, and it’s not a given that his successor’s honeymoon (if there is one) would last all the way until the by-election.
It’s most likely a Coalition retain, but – IMO – hardly a certainly, particularly with a strong Labor candidate. And having to immediately deal with yet another temporary hung parliament that’ll be determined by an upcoming by-election would be suck a lot of oxygen from whoever rolls him.
Why would Turnbull threat to resign be blackmail?
Don’t forget the small matter of the $1 million plus personal donation to the party last time.
Kiss that goodbye if they shaft him.
There’s a Newspoll tonight, right?
A good one from John Quiggin.
TPOF:’Who knows? Maybe the super fund managers. However, Australian dividends from companies that have paid enough company tax will still provide franked dividends. So if you earn enough TAXABLE INCOME to actually pay tax there is no benefit to changing.’
Not changing is the luxury of the rich.
The poorer investor/pensioner will have to scratch around finding investments that can make up for the lost credits.
Don’t forget that Labor put up a popular candidate in Wentworth at the last election. He may be just the sort of true Centre Left representative that so many of them craved in Malcolm Turnbull but never really got.
Between the South Australian election, the non-sitting week for the House, and the fact that we’ve gone a while without a three-week gap — I’d doubt it. Which could very well mean no polling at all this week, given it’s an off week for Essential.
“The poorer investor/pensioner will have to scratch around finding investments that can make up for the lost credits.”
When the poorer investor is on the same as a real pensioner then they will be ‘poor’ until then they are well off investors whinging that santa didn’t keep bringing them unearned candy.
The people of Wentworth are died in the wool Libs who wouldn’t think twice about stomping on poor people that got between them and a bucket of money.
But I’m not sure they’re fascists.
If Reichstuber SS Kartoffelkopf managed a putsch and declared himself Fuhrer I’m not certain they’d be in a rush to shout Zeig Heil. Those sorts are happy enough to pander to the likes of Dutton for the votes they need to maintain power. I don’t know how keen they would be to submit to him being the boss though.
Between the South Australian election, the non-sitting week for the House, and the fact that we’ve gone a while without a three-week gap — I’d doubt it. Which could very well mean no polling at all this week, given it’s an off week for Essential.
There’ll be a riot.
bemused @ #2088 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 8:14 pm
I thought this post from yesterday was more telling, given how left wing John Quiggin is:
“I haven’t had time to do a proper economic analysis of Labor’s proposals on dividend imputation credits. But you don’t need an economic analysis to see that making an overt appeal to conservative voters on the issue, as Richard di Natale has just done, is a very bad move if the Greens party wants to present itself as a left alternative to Labor.
Perhaps this is poor judgement in the heat of a by-election campaign, the significance of which seems to me to be greatly over-rated by all.
Alternatively, perhaps it indicates that di Natale is taking the Greens in a different direction. The obvious choices are
(i) A soft liberal centrist party in the mould of the Australian Democrats under Don Chipp
(ii) A serious push to displace Labor as the main alternative to the LNP
I don’t think there’s a real constituency for (i) and, to the extent that there is, it’s very different from the existing Greens support base.
I also don’t think (ii) has any chance of success. But, if it does, it will involve a lot of the kind of grubby compromises that are inevitably entailed in an attempt to put together an electoral majority. Labor’s shuffles on Adani and refugees are obvious examples, which have driven a lot of people to support the Greens. But now it looks as if the boot may be on the other foot.
A lower profile, but similar, example came up with the Senate inquiry into SA Tafe, which was a stunt by education minister Simon Birmingham intended to embarrass Labor ahead of today’s state election. It backfired both procedurally (because the Labor majority on the committee refused to take its ostensible purpose seriously) and in policy terms, since the submissions (including mine) focused on the disastrous state of vocational education in Australia generally. Despite this, the Greens joined the LNP in a minority report which tried to defend the whole sorry process.”
John Quiggin is precisely the kind of intellectual economist that the Greens need onside if they are to be taken seriously as a Labor replacement. The fact that these are his comments, rather than GG’s or Boerwar’s, should be really concerning to Rex and Pegasus.
“The poorer investor/pensioner will have to scratch around finding investments that can make up for the lost credits.”
Or they might just find out they don’t have enough money to do everything they want, you know like real pensioners who are paid sub-poverty level pensioners find out nearly every fortnight when they can’t afford all the food that want. So sort of the same but skiing holidays rather than food.
SA election result a win for the mainstream:
– Chris Kenny’s sister in the seat of Torrens saw a swing of around 2.8% to Labor. Even better that her brother was campaigning for her. Fail.
– Cory Bernardi’s party suffered a stunning fail. Apparently people will vote for a party benignly called Family First but not one ideologically titled Australian Conservatives. Will he try to get back with the Libs when his Senate term expires rather than suffer the ignominy of losing bigly?
– A swing TO Labor overall.
Pee Bee,
The poorer investor/pensioner will have to scratch around finding investments that can make up for the lost credits.
My heart bleeds. Not. I mean, can you not see how selfish you sound when you write stuff like that? Lord knows how you would go really ‘scratching around’ to survive on the Aged or Disability Pension as your only source of income. Like so many Middle Aged Women, such as myself.
Frankly, I’d rather believe Grog’s take on the subject, than your complaints:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/mar/18/labors-dividend-tax-policy-is-smart-bold-and-dangerous
Maybe there will never be another Newspoll, and Malcolm will be Prime Minister forever. Then again…
Ratsak –
Reichstuber SS Kartoffelkopf
Excellent