BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

One new poll result this week leaves the BludgerTrack poll aggregate all but unchanged.

The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,248 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 45
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  2. Got me again William! 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe does a better job of explaining the effects of Labor’s blunt instrument on the bottom end of town. If Shorten doesn’t come out soon with some definitive remedy the rot will have set in.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-s-59-billion-revenue-grab-is-a-bit-rich-20180315-p4z4hh.html
    Tony Wright questions the timing of Shorten’s announcement just before the Batman byelection.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-s-hip-pocket-hit-ahead-of-batman-byelection-tests-common-sense-20180315-p4z4he.html
    Phil Coorey on how Shorten is responding to the criticism on his tax policy. Google.
    /news/bill-shorten-flags-help-for-lowincome-retirees-20180314-h0xhgt
    Eryk Bagshaw also looks at the response.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-forced-to-dial-back-on-59-billion-hit-to-pensioners-and-retirees-20180315-p4z4hy.html
    Peter Hartcher tells us why Australia joining ASEAN is a great idea.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-australia-joining-asean-is-a-great-idea-20180315-p4z4kk.html
    Laura Tingle thinks about the issues in play for Batman and South Australian elections. Google.
    /opinion/batman-south-australia-and-metoo-context-is-everything-in-politics-20180315-h0xija
    Michelle Grattan writes that Shorten is scoring own goals on tax and Adani with Batman ‘soft’ voters.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-shorten-scores-own-goals-on-tax-and-adani-with-batman-soft-voters-93438
    Dave Donavan tells us that a s the next election approaches, we can look forward to months of painful smears, scare-campaigns and subtly racist dog-whistling as the Coalition look to rescue their teetering Government from the abyss.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-excerpt-here-comes-the-pain-again,11298
    Russia is set to retaliate to May’s expulsion of 23 of its “diplomats”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russia-to-retaliate-against-theresa-may-s-poison-provocation-20180315-p4z4l4.html
    And relations between France and Saudi Arabia are somewhat fraught too.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/french-court-issues-arrest-warrant-for-daughter-of-saudi-king-20180316-p4z4lx.html
    The Commonwealth Bank has admitted the commissions it pays to mortgage brokers can incentivise them to sell risky mortgages to CBA customers, but it does not want to stop the practice until other banks stop it too. I watched Counsel Assisting an His Honour dismantle the CBA guy. It was good viewing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/15/broker-payments-an-incentive-to-sell-risky-mortgages-cba-admits
    The ACCC has urged Australians to change their bank after finding the biggest banks are slugging loyal customers. Google.
    /business/financial-services/banks-slugging-loyal-customers-says-accc/news-story/245302e8289cbd8645ad5eb4065a1dc3
    The US has issued financial sanctions against two major Russian intelligence agencies along with a St Petersburg-based “troll farm” and other Russian citizens and businesses as part of the ongoing probe into election interference.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mueller-probe-us-sanctions-russians-for-election-meddling-20180316-p4z4lr.html
    Michael Koziol on Dutton wanting a refugee intake of white South African farmers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-wants-a-refugee-intake-of-white-south-african-farmers-20180315-p4z4gr.html
    Michaelia Cash might g=have to front the court over the AFP raid on the CFMEU. Wouldn’t it be luverly!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/michaelia-cash-could-face-court-over-raids-as-union-seeks-subpoenas-20180315-p4z4hw.html
    Section 2 . . .

    Andrew Leigh on the use of randomised trials for policy and law development.
    https://theconversation.com/speaking-with-andrew-leigh-on-why-we-need-more-randomised-trials-in-policy-and-law-93282
    The delays in processing visas for PhD students as the Home Affairs department conducts national security checks has emerged as the latest point of diplomatic tension between Australia and China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-is-denying-student-visas-says-chinese-government-20180315-p4z4in.html
    A nice contribution from Kerri Sackville who fully accepts that bad things can happen to good people. But when good things happen to bad people, she feels completely enraged.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/when-good-things-happen-to-bad-people-20180313-p4z44o.html
    This school principal writes about the role of schools in preventing violence and bullying.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/national-day-of-action-against-violence-and-bullying-schools-must-continue-the-fight-20180315-h0xhte.html
    Articulate US teenagers could finally force action on gun control.
    https://theconversation.com/articulate-us-teenagers-could-finally-force-action-on-gun-control-92272
    To update our institutions to reflect modern realities, the Senate should be elected by regions, not states, writes Aman Gaur.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/address-the-rural-urban-divide-by-reforming-the-senate,11297
    An anaesthetist explains why he is so concerned about BUPA’s recent changes. I am a BUPA member and not happy about it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/dear-bupa-your-policy-change-makes-me-worry-for-my-patients-and-for-the-hospitals-in-which-i-work-20180315-p4z4hx.html
    Jenna Price has a big spit at the huge salaries and bonuses payed to a lot of executives.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-road-to-serfdom-is-paved-with-ceo-bonuses-20180315-h0xihh.html
    The future of Toys ‘R’ Us in Australia is uncertain with about 2700 local jobs at risk if a new owner cannot be found, following the American retail giant’s decision to shut up shop in the United States and Britain.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/toys-r-us-store-closures-put-2700-australian-jobs-at-risk-20180315-p4z4go.html
    Did it come about as a result of getting into bed with Amazon 18 years ago?
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/03/15/toys-r-us-amazon-liquidation/
    Scott Ludlam writes “Our authoritarian government has turned up the heat. But we can still fight back.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/15/our-government-is-boiling-the-water-we-swim-in-but-we-can-still-jump-out
    Cardinal George Pell has been accused in court of alleged abuse during a water skiing trip in rural Victoria.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/03/15/george-pell-hearing-witness-insult/
    Michael West with an insight into yesterday’s grilling of ExxonMobil Australia by a Senate Committee. Kimberley Kitching was in good form by the look of it.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/poor-misunderstood-exxon-faces-unfair-senate-grilling/
    All is not well at this Liberal incubator.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sacked-trinity-teacher-a-bully-at-previous-school-say-ex-students-20180315-p4z4ht.html
    The intent of stalled legislation being pushed by the federal government is clear – to weaken the capacity of charities, particularly environmental groups, to oppose government excesses. Dr Kyla Tienhaara and Professor John Dryzek explain.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/03/15/democracy-biggest-victim-turnbulls-war-charities/
    Stephen Hawking won accolades from his peers for having one of the most brilliant minds in science, but he never got a Nobel Prize because no one has yet proven his ideas.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2018/03/15/stephen-hawking-nobel-prize/

    Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Something special from David Rowe.

    Peter Broelman lines up the Uber Tuber over the white South African farmers.

    Five more from Matt Golding.





    Glen Le Lievre’s view of the White House.

    Mark Knight farewells Stephen Hawking.

    Trump’s gullibility.

    And his vanity.

    More Kill Bill from Zanetti.

    John Shakespeare and Gladys.

    US students taking on the NRA.

    Jon Kudelka and Shorten’s tax problem.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/57915fed5d3e8d9cf9e76bef0ccaa15f
    You’ll find some more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-march-16-2018-20180315-h0xj9b.html

  3. Mueller just subpoenaed the Trump Organization — and he wants documents about Russia

    Special counsel Robert Mueller’s office has issued subpoenas to the Trump Organization seeking documents about its past dealings inside Russia.

    The New York Times reports that Mueller’s team has asked the Trump Organization to deliver a series of documents on many topics, including some that are related to Russia.

    According to the Times, the subpoena “is the first known time that the special counsel demanded documents directly related to President Trump’s businesses, bringing the investigation closer to the president.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/bombshell-mueller-just-subpoenaed-trump-organization-wants-documents-russia/

  4. Labor is going into the final hours in the Batman byelection believing the critical contest is line ball, with voter sentiment improving in the final week, according to private party research.

    Labor sources have told Guardian Australia polling undertaken this week has Ged Kearney neck-and-neck with the Greens candidate Alex Bhathal – an improvement from the research the week before, which suggested Labor’s primary vote was too low to win.

    But while key strategists are closing out the campaign in an optimistic mood, party veterans have also expressed caution about how voter turnout will ultimately affect Saturday’s result, given turnout is lower in byelection contests than it is in general elections, and given the difficulty of predicting how Liberal supporters will cast their votes without a candidate in the race.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/16/batman-byelection-going-down-to-the-wire-labors-polling-shows

  5. ‘Always an equivocation’: Fox News’ Chris Wallace nails Trump for being unwilling to directly call out Russia

    Fox News anchor Chris Wallace on Thursday found himself unimpressed with President Donald Trump’s response to Russia’s use of a nerve agent on the soil of top ally the United Kingdom.

    Wallace also noted that Trump has been reluctant to call out Russia using the same blunt, angry rhetoric that he hasn’t hesitated to use against governments such as China, Mexico and North Korea, all of whom have drawn his ire over the course of his presidency.

    “Even in his remarks that you just played with him in the Oval Office, he said ‘Well, it looks like [it was Russia],” he said. “Much tougher rhetoric coming from the U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, from the president’s own spokeswoman, Sarah Huckabee Sanders. When the president talks himself, there is always a kind of equivocation. It looks like, he’s not definite. He doesn’t condemn. And that’s notable.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/always-equivocation-fox-news-chris-wallace-nails-trump-unwilling-directly-call-russia/

  8. The timing of the franking credit announcements this week is interesting and I hardly think the possible impact on Batman and SA wouldn’t have been considered by Labor prior to the announcement. Perhaps we’ll never know the reason for the timing but a few possibilities come to mind:

    1. The judgement was made that the announcement will actually be a net positive for Labor, even taking into account that it would be demonised by the coalition and the press.

    2. Labor’s private polling and on-the-ground intelligence is telling them either that they’re home and hosed in this week’s elections or they’re gone for all money, so it doesn’t matter either way.

    3. It’s an experiment to see how an announcement which will be popular with many but strongly affect a few demographics does actually affect votes. Perhaps the possible loss of either Batman or SA is considered worth it to work out how to run the campaign for the Federal Election. I know this sounds cynical but in my view the general election is far more important to Australia in the future than Batman or South Australia.

    On another point, I think Poll Bludger may not be the best place to judge the popularity of this measure. From people’s comments, it’s pretty obvious that we skew rather older and probably wealthier on average than the general population, so are more likely to have posters who are more affected by the change. The same applies to MSM journalists, a lot of whom will have skin in the game as far as retirement not being too far over the horizon and having fairly substantial superannuation balances for their financial planner to play with for maximum advantage.

  10. From Crikey yesterday, the body representing the South African farmers isn’t happy with Dutton’s comments at all.
    A bill is going through their parliament, it is likely to be modified after negotiation. Then it would have to pass a court case in their equivalent of the High Court, on the face of it, it doesn’t appear to be compliant with their constuition, which had clauses put in to it stop precisely this sort of measure.

    So Dutton making encouraging noises about them accepting a fait acomplie and leaving the country is not appreciated one bit.

  11. sprocket_ @ #4 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 6:47 am

    Labor is going into the final hours in the Batman byelection believing the critical contest is line ball, with voter sentiment improving in the final week, according to private party research.

    Labor sources have told Guardian Australia polling undertaken this week has Ged Kearney neck-and-neck with the Greens candidate Alex Bhathal – an improvement from the research the week before, which suggested Labor’s primary vote was too low to win.

    But while key strategists are closing out the campaign in an optimistic mood, party veterans have also expressed caution about how voter turnout will ultimately affect Saturday’s result, given turnout is lower in byelection contests than it is in general elections, and given the difficulty of predicting how Liberal supporters will cast their votes without a candidate in the race.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/16/batman-byelection-going-down-to-the-wire-labors-polling-shows

    Labor’s strategy has been quite different to Bennelong this time around. Certainly, not as much hoop la and celebrity. The campaign seems to have been very local and focussed on Kearney’ positives. and bread and butter issues that affect the day to day lives of the electorate. The Greens have hammered away on Adani. But, whether that resonates in attracting swingers and Libs is moot.

    Where the Liberal vote goes is the great unknown and as you say the turn out could be the decisive factor in the end result.

    I believe Kearney is the better candidate (no surprises there) based on her experience and personal traits. Labor has also shown a very united front compared to the Greens.

  13. Sandi Logan‏Verified account @SandiHLogan

    No other Commonwealth public servant would have received the treatment Roman Quaedvlieg @ABFComm “endured”. Full pay while being investigated for very, very serious breaches of trust, of behaviour & actions inconsistent with his legal obligations.

    That said, the extended nature of the investigation was a result of ineptitude/disinterest at a bureaucractic & political level. At agency level, Mike Pezzullo failed to act quickly, forthrightly. He hand-balled the matter to Australian Commission for Law Enforcement Integrity.

    They were horrified with what they found. They wanted Roamin Holiday sacked. Forthwith. Instead, the government — & especially the Dutton — wanted to find a way to delay it as they manoeuvred the failed Customs/IMMI marriage into a homeland security replica: Home Affairs,

    Referred back to Pezzullo, he still wdn’t act. More delay, The matter was then referred to the secretary of Prime Minister & Cabinet. Martin Parkinson, its secretary, was horrified by the breaches identified. He too wanted Roman gone, forthwith. But no, the govt sought a delay.

    So it was punted to George Brandis, then-AG. He was already designing his bookshelves for Australia House, preparing for his @dfat posting to London. He was also diametrically opposed to Dutton’s right wing nut jobbery. He didn’t want his fingerprints on Roman Holiday’s sacking.

    George “lost” the paperwork in his IN tray. The taxpayer kept paying for the Roamin’ Holiday. That’s neither fair to the ex-@ABFComm nor to the taxpayer. But for months we kept paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep Roman in a manner to which he had become comfortable.

    So with George gone & Dutton working the phones on Chester Porter, we were presented with a leak in the Daily Terror: salacious texts sent by the Roman Holiday on his work phone, no less! Wonder how that happened? It was obviously part of a strong signal: “the game is over”.

    With today’s sacking, this circus comes ends. But that it took so long, cost the taxpayer so much, & left Roman on an extended holiday, is a disgrace. This is the issue: why has the government, the Pez & the minister absolved themselves of responsibility? It will cost millions.

  15. JR
    Dutton did not make that announcement because he cares for South African farmers.
    Dutton cares about Dutton and about farming Australia’s racists.

  18. Thanks BK, the first article by David Crowe, you referenced explains very clearly how the proposed ALP dividend imputation credit will hurt the poor while leaving the better off able to avoid the pain.


  19. Edwina StJohn says:
    Friday, March 16, 2018 at 6:29 am

    Suffer the poor pensioners with the PAL after the dividend tax atrocity!

    1) To get dividends you must have capital. Super was not designed to allow you to live and hand over a large wad to the next generation.
    2) You can argue that company tax should not be paid twice but if we are to have things like pensions then someone must pay the company tax.
    3) For cheap protean there are a lot cheaper options than PAL.


  20. PeeBee says:
    Friday, March 16, 2018 at 8:04 am

    Thanks BK, the first article by David Crowe, you referenced explains very clearly how the proposed ALP dividend imputation credit will hurt the poor while leaving the better off able to avoid the pain.

    Yes the bleating is loud. To have dividends you must have capital. People with capital are not poor. The bullshit level is high.

  22. ajm

    I too have been wondering as to the timing of the Labor announcement, in light of both the SA election and the Batman election.
    they could have left it till next week.

  23. The anti-Labor media are calling it a $59 billion tax grab.
    This is always the problem when Labor tries to reverse Coalition ‘generosity’. How will we ever restore fairness?

  24. Lizzie

    The polarisation between the haves and have nots is a worldwide struggle. It also feeds into the whole racist energy of the belief they are entitled to more due to their race.
    Only have to look at what Dutton is doing here to feed this meme.

  25. ‏ @ellipsii · Mar 14

    It was just over a year ago that Federal ministers warned the PM against elevating “a fascist like Peter Dutton” to Home Affairs Minister

  26. The Fairfax articles on the tax changes make Labor sound indecisive or unprepared yesterday.
    Not having seen an press conferences or interviews was this the case.
    Given the Adani furore I do not entirely trust Fairfax.

  27. lizzie

    There are some positive articles popping up though. Even in the GG. This from the SMH today
    .
    ANALYSIS
    SHARES
    Labor’s hit on share dividends meets fairness test
    Vested interests will cry foul but the proposal to restrict dividend imputation credits adds up.

    It’s time for a reality check on Labor’s plan to wind back dividend imputation credits

    Retirees who have designed their entire investment strategy around maximising imputation credits will need to change tack.But does it meet the fairness test? Fundamentally, yes.

    by Caitlin Fitzsimmons
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/labor-s-hit-on-share-dividends-meets-fairness-test-20180315-p4z4kp.html

  28. “53.2- 47.8 does not compute. Adds up to 101%.”
    William is often in such a hurry to guzump BK’s media-summary post, errors like this are common in the early hours.

  29. Retirement is about managing the use and rundown of your available cash flow and anything that impacts that can be a concern to a retiree. You can’t blame retirees for getting pissed off when governments are continually changing the rules on them.

  30. You can see why Trump has ramped up the crazy….

    Ale
    Ale
    @aliasvaughn
    ·
    3h
    1. BREAKING: Mueller has subpoenad Trump Org. for documents, including Russia-related documents. Mueller chose an official act and didn’t just “ask for” documents. Subpoena was delivered “in recent weeks

  31. davidwh @ #29 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    Retirement is about managing the use and rundown of your available cash flow and anything that impacts that can be a concern to a retiree. You can’t blame retirees for getting pissed off when governments are continually changing the rules on them.

    You would have to include the rough with the smooth here if you want to be honest. That includes the Costello change that advantaged Self Funded retirees in the first place!

  32. Morning all. Trump finally finds his spine.

    The Trump administration on Thursday imposed fresh sanctions on Russian government hackers and spy agencies to punish Moscow for interfering in the 2016 presidential election and for a cyberattack against Ukraine and other countries last year that officials have characterized as “the most destructive and costly” in history.

    Sanctions also were imposed on individuals known as “trolls” and the Russian organizations — including the Internet Research Agency — that supported their efforts to undermine the election. Additionally, the administration alerted the public that Russia is targeting the U.S. energy grid with computer malware that could sabotage its systems.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-administration-sanctions-russian-spies-trolls-over-us-election-interference-cyber-attacks/2018/03/15/3eaae186-284c-11e8-b79d-f3d931db7f68_story.html?utm_term=.b9c7188ab9d2


  33. davidwh (Block)
    Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 8:30 am
    Comment #29

    Retirement is about managing the use and rundown of your available cash flow and anything that impacts that can be a concern to a retiree. You can’t blame retirees for getting pissed off when governments are continually changing the rules on them.

    I would like to pay no tax also; but I am not going to run around claiming I need to buy PAL because I do.

  34. Just had to switch off Sabra Lane this morning, her seething treatment of Jay Weatherill and pro- LNP platform unforgiveable!! The bias is so blatant and I am seriously concerned about the future of democracy in our country.

  35. The breadth of the subpoena was not clear, nor was it clear why Mr. Mueller issued it instead of simply asking for the documents from the company, an umbrella organization that oversees Mr. Trump’s business ventures. In the subpoena, delivered in recent weeks, Mr. Mueller ordered the Trump Organization to hand over all records related to Russia and other topics he is investigating, the people said.

    The subpoena is the latest indication that the investigation, which Mr. Trump’s lawyers once regularly assured him would be completed by now, will drag on for at least several more months. Word of the subpoena comes as Mr. Mueller appears to be broadening his investigation to examine the role foreign money may have played in funding Mr. Trump’s political activities. In recent weeks, Mr. Mueller’s investigators have questioned witnesses, including an adviser to the United Arab Emirates, about the flow of Emirati money into the United States.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/us/politics/trump-organization-subpoena-mueller-russia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  37. Given the dopes track record I reckon Shorten will be delighted with the CPG going all Labor’s stuffed up on this.

    It’s almost certainly a signal that the changes will be at least a political neutral if not a clear winner.

  39. Quasar

    I was once on the receiving end of a similar interview – but the interviewer had pre warned me the approach that was going to be taken, and said they knew that I would deal with it and come out looking better than if I had been given a ‘soft’ interview.

    Whether that was Lane’s intention or not, I was reminded of that when listening to Weatherill.

  41. Malcolm Nance
    15 mins ·
    “Russia is clearly on an assassination campaign…. They seem to understand that they can operate with impunity in the West. To deploy a weapon of mass destruction in a state-sponsored terrorist attack, this is not only uncalled for, this is an emergency that the President of the United States himself should be addressing.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luoVyJPaOug&feature=youtu.be

  42. davidwh @ #29 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    Retirement is about managing the use and rundown of your available cash flow and anything that impacts that can be a concern to a retiree. You can’t blame retirees for getting pissed off when governments are continually changing the rules on them.

    David, I have heard the sanctimonious phrase about stealing from our children and grandchildren in regard to ‘budget repair’ many times from this government – as a justification for screwing welfare payments to the poorest people in our society and disinvesting in this nation’s future. But the current tax regime for people over 60 (of which I am one), especially self-funded retirees (of which I am also one) is the most blatant example of stealing from our children and grandchildren.

    Howard is totally to blame for introducing such a raft of generous taxation measures but everyone who pays tax now is funding it. The tragedy for them is that it will increasingly become an obviously unjustifiable burden and those paying the most to fund it now (the ordinary wage and salary taxpayers) are guaranteed not to have it when they retire because no government of any stripe will be able to afford the exponential growth of the cost to revenue of these measures .

  43. Get well 😷permanently Briefly.

    🤞 🖖 👆 🖕

    In case of emergencies I trust you have a loved one to assume the “giving the finger” duties.

  44. Q +1

    Except I didnt hear her interview with Marshall. Was she equally as awful to him as well?

    I am all for hard questions…. but they need to be reasonable and you need to give the politician a little time to answer. Weatherill isnt a waffler, he keeps his answers short and relevant so no need to talk over him after you have asked a multi-pronged question or want to follow up on something he has said.

  45. Trump Is Terrified That Robert Mueller Is About To Bust His Kids

    MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace reported that Trump is blowing up over the subpoena of the Trump Organization because he is worried that Special Counsel Robert Mueller is about to bust his kids Ivanka, Don Jr., and Eric for financial crimes involving Russia.

    I’ve heard from two sources he’s worried about his baby girl, his daughter Ivanka and her exposure because of Jared’s legal travails. And I heard today that the reaction to this story from the president is likely to be I don’t want to use the word grave, but — mounting concerns for his son.”

    Trump set himself and his family up to be in legal jeopardy with two decisions that he made before taking office. It was Trump who decided not to divest himself of his business holdings, and it was Trump who gave his daughter and son in law who were still involved with the Trump Organization senior positions in the White House. Trump and his family would be in less legal jeopardy today if he had built a wall separating his business interests from the presidency.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/03/15/trump-is-terrified-that-robert-mueller-is-about-to-bust-his-kids.html

  46. PeeBee thinks poor people have share portfolios , there might be some, but they’d be an exception to the rule. It’s a line Morrison would use.

  47. BK – Got me again William!
    We may think he is omnipresent but I suggest you cover up the webcam on your laptop.

    Big William is watching.

  48. ajm @ #8 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 7:08 am

    The timing of the franking credit announcements this week is interesting and I hardly think the possible impact on Batman and SA wouldn’t have been considered by Labor prior to the announcement. Perhaps we’ll never know the reason for the timing but a few possibilities come to mind:

    1. The judgement was made that the announcement will actually be a net positive for Labor, even taking into account that it would be demonised by the coalition and the press.

    2. Labor’s private polling and on-the-ground intelligence is telling them either that they’re home and hosed in this week’s elections or they’re gone for all money, so it doesn’t matter either way.

    3. It’s an experiment to see how an announcement which will be popular with many but strongly affect a few demographics does actually affect votes. Perhaps the possible loss of either Batman or SA is considered worth it to work out how to run the campaign for the Federal Election. I know this sounds cynical but in my view the general election is far more important to Australia in the future than Batman or South Australia.

    On another point, I think Poll Bludger may not be the best place to judge the popularity of this measure. From people’s comments, it’s pretty obvious that we skew rather older and probably wealthier on average than the general population, so are more likely to have posters who are more affected by the change. The same applies to MSM journalists, a lot of whom will have skin in the game as far as retirement not being too far over the horizon and having fairly substantial superannuation balances for their financial planner to play with for maximum advantage.

    A very good summary.

    I would add that it surprises me how many middle class younger wage and salary earners have no idea about shares and dividends and dividend imputations. Outside a limited group of people who do invest in this stuff (like me) and oldies who were around to get the benefit of the cheap government sell-off of CBA and Telstra and get the prize of franking credits being paid as a refund of company tax, most Australians don’t even know what this is about.

  49. Very good article by Caitlin Fitzsimmons. Thanks, poroti.

    She gets it bang to rights here:

    The deficit in 2017-18 is estimated to be $24 billion. It’s unreasonable to expect working people – many of whom can’t afford their own home – to shoulder the entire burden of budget repair.
    It’s also about intragenerational fairness, since it overwhelmingly affects well-off retirees, not all older people.
    Sure, it’s difficult to recalibrate your investment portfolio after retirement but it’s possible. It particularly pains me to see case studies of retirees potentially devastated by this proposal because they have 100 per cent of their savings in Australian dividend-paying shares.
    Not because I feel sorry for them, but because it’s silly. First, it’s foolish to build an investment strategy around a tax perk – that’s classic tail wagging the dog. Second, it’s not a well-diversified portfolio so there’s market risk.

  50. TPOF

    The ‘debt and deficit disaster’ suddenly disappeared after LNP began to blow out the budget. Then ‘budget reform’ took over as they began to penalise all ‘welfare’ bods for daring to need welfare. Everything they have done since Howard has made the situation worse. 🙁

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