BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

One new poll result this week leaves the BludgerTrack poll aggregate all but unchanged.

The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,248 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. cher: twitter.com/yashar/status/…
    This little baby has deep feelings,& LOVE FOR US. What does trump Want to do….KILL HIM,CUT HIS BODY INTO PIECES,& SHIP THOSE PIECES BACK TO ,TO DECORATE HIS SONS,& RICH DONORS WALLS‼️
    I HATE THEM (This Is KIND Compared To What I Wanted 2 Say)

  2. Trump set himself and his family up to be in legal jeopardy with two decisions that he made before taking office.

    I have worked for people like Trump. They do not waste their time deliberating over medium term future consequences. They trust in their ability to dodge, weave, put out fires, hit the deck running, live outside the comfort zone… In fact, the rush of dealing with the consequences of bad decisions is part of their makeup and what keeps them interested. Some might call it entrepreneurial.

  3. Second, it’s not a well-diversified portfolio so there’s market risk.

    Jeez even I understand why this is important and I’ve got zero financial investment acumen!

  6. TPOF

    As a lowly wage earner (and female to boot) I was in my fifties before I even considered dipping my toe in the share market by investing a few hundred in shares. ‘Ordinary’ people didn’t do it, and there simply wasn’t any spare cash. Howard’s “everyone will have to fund their own retirement” was just a terrifying joke. I feel so lucky that I now own a house and a pension. Things could so easily have gone the other way.

  7. Like clockwork, Tudge on radio this morning about “welfare cheats” who have been caught, with the usual threats about “you will be caught”.

  8. Seems like there’s a lot of people here who support progressive taxation until it impacts them directly. Is there a term for the economic equivalent to a NIMBY?

  9. Frednk, obviously your definition of poor is different from mine.

    The full pension is about $33k per year which is not much and below the poverty line. The couple on a pension may have a little nest egg of $50k of shares. They will loose all their imputation credit.

    That is not my definition of rich.

  10. The danger of Sabra Lane interviewing Jay Weatherill in a harsh manner is that people hear her harsh voice and tune out to avoid confronting conflict

    Definitely unfair bias

    Do you think that the Labor dividend imputation policy was leaked early? ie a SNAFU.
    Labor seem to be unaware of how older workers live between when they can’t get another full time job after age 45 and able to access their super at 56 or 60 and an aged pension at age 67

  11. The Sunrise studios in Sydney have been swamped by protesters furious over the program’s segment on Aboriginal adoption earlier this week.
    Videos on social media showed demonstrators holding placards and banging on the studio’s glass windows while people chanted “Leave the kids alone!” and “Always was, always will be Aboriginal land”.

    Sunrise lowered the blinds on its Martin Place windows to prevent the protesters being shown on national TV.

    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/activists-swamp-sunrise-windows-to-protest-aboriginal-adoption-segment-20180316-p4z4mm.html

  12. Simon Katich @ #52 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 9:17 am

    Trump set himself and his family up to be in legal jeopardy with two decisions that he made before taking office.

    I have worked for people like Trump. They do not waste their time deliberating over medium term future consequences. They trust in their ability to dodge, weave, put out fires, hit the deck running, live outside the comfort zone… In fact, the rush of dealing with the consequences of bad decisions is part of their makeup and what keeps them interested. Some might call it entrepreneurial.

    You worked for Malcolm Turnbull!?! 😀

  13. Many young people I know that cannot afford a house, in say a suburb like Batman, rent there and put their excess cash into shares. I imagine this is because keeping it in a bank is a waste of time, but also it protects their capital from the corrosive effect of inflation.

    I imagine, they would not like the new ALP policy.

    Ironic if the timing of the announcement was to save Batman actually sinks it.

  15. PeeBee @ #63 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 8:31 am

    Many young people I know that cannot afford a house, in say a suburb like Batman, rent there and put their excess cash into shares.

    They should have a chat with SteelyDan, he knows where to find all the cheapest real-estate! Even Melbourne is quite affordable, to hear him tell it.

  16. PeeBee @ #63 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 9:31 am

    Many young people I know that cannot afford a house, in say a suburb like Batman, rent there and put their excess cash into shares. I imagine this is because keeping it in a bank is a waste of time, but also it protects their capital from the corrosive effect of inflation.

    I imagine, they would not like the new ALP policy.

    Ironic if the timing of the announcement was to save Batman actually sinks it.

    The young people I know don’t have enough money left after paying for rent, electricity, food, a moderate amount for entertainment and car costs, to afford to put any into shares. Especially with the casualisation of work and stagnating wages.

  17. TheKouk: And just getting to Jean for a moment: Assuming a 5% return from her assets (which is very generous), to get a $160,000 return, she would need to have about $3.2 million in assets (not counting a house she lives in). Thank you very much! twitter.com/KKeneally/stat…
    KKeneally: Put another way – Jean has well over a million in super & her other assets, which provides her $160k a year tax free. Meanwhile a PAYE earner between $37k – $87k is paying 32.5% in tax and juggling the mortgage or rent, utilities, & getting slugged with a tax hike from pic.twitter.com/qC12sifd7x

  18. Wayfarer
    Friday, March 16, 2018 at 9:25 am
    Seems like there’s a lot of people here who support progressive taxation until it impacts them directly. Is there a term for the economic equivalent to a NIMBY?

    The problem I have with the ALP proposal is precisely because it is not progressive, it is regressive.

    Currently if someone inherits $2.2 million in CBA shares, and their only income is $126K in dividends, they pay no tax. A PAYG worker on $126K would pay $30.5K in tax (before other levies).

    The ALP policy does nothing to fix this, and instead goes after people in the lower tax brackets who get a few $K in credits.

    To be fair the policy should get rid of franking altogether, or scale it back.

  20. sallyrugg: I’m so sad today, the apparent day of action against bullying, for the kids who needed the safe schools anti-bullying program, which was defunded for absolutely no true reason.

  22. Simon Katich says: Friday, March 16, 2018 at 9:17 am

    Trump set himself and his family up to be in legal jeopardy with two decisions that he made before taking office.

    I have worked for people like Trump. They do not waste their time deliberating over medium term future consequences. They trust in their ability to dodge, weave, put out fires, hit the deck running, live outside the comfort zone… In fact, the rush of dealing with the consequences of bad decisions is part of their makeup and what keeps them interested. Some might call it entrepreneurial.

    ******************************************************

    US political commentator Bill Palmers say :

    If Trump had lost the election and slithered off the public stage, there would be no Trump-Russia investigation on this scale. There would never have been enough attention placed on the likes of Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn to take them down. More importantly for Trump, there might never have been enough attention placed on Trump’s own corrupt family to take them down. Instead, because Trump stole the election and illegitimately took office, Trump Jr is being investigated for the role he played in plotting with the Russians. Ivanka is being scrutinized for the shady real estate deals she cut in past years with Russian money launderers. Jared Kushner’s dark financial web is being busted open like a piñata.

    So we’re probably looking at Donald Trump, his son, his daughter, and his son-in-law either going to prison or cutting plea deals against each other, along with the destruction of his own marriage and his son’s marriage, and maybe his daughter’s marriage too by the time they’re all done flipping on each other. Trump will end up bitterly regretting having ever entered politics. So will his entire decimated family, if they don’t already.

  24. TheKouk: What will Jean do? twitter.com/FinancialRevie…FinancialReview: #BREAKING: @Wesfarmers to spin off @Coles into separate ASX company.
    $WES #ausbiz
    bit.ly/2GxQ4sC

  25. Question

    What a load of bullshit. Your position is Labor policy should be opposed because double taxation should be allowed (get rid of franking credits all together); just getting rid of rules that result in no taxation is not acceptable.

    The sort of nonsense one expect from the Green.

  26. Seems like there’s a lot of people here who support progressive taxation until it impacts them directly. Is there a term for the economic equivalent to a NIMBY?

    to really get their juices flowing mention the tax lurk that dares not speak its name:
    the special tax treatment for the family home

    This is by far the biggest lose of Commonwealth revenue within the tax system.

  27. Vogon Poet @ #45 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 9:08 am

    PeeBee thinks poor people have share portfolios , there might be some, but they’d be an exception to the rule. It’s a line Morrison would use.

    Well of course they do! They got the money by saving as poor people don’t drive and therefore don’t have the expenses of car ownership. You know Hockey was right…

    It’s economics Eleventy one.

    Tom.

  28. Another person has died after eating Listeria-affected Rockmelon. 🙁

    It’s hard to imagine the bacteria penetrating that hard exterior. I would be interested to know the aetiology.

  29. So we’re probably looking at Donald Trump, his son, his daughter, and his son-in-law either going to prison or cutting plea deals against each other, along with the destruction of his own marriage and his son’s marriage, and maybe his daughter’s marriage too by the time they’re all done flipping on each other. Trump will end up bitterly regretting having ever entered politics. So will his entire decimated family, if they don’t already.

    I think Bill Palmer is getting a little ahead of himself with that!

  30. frednk
    Friday, March 16, 2018 at 9:42 am
    Question
    What a load of bullshit. Your position is Labor policy should be opposed because double taxation should be allowed (get rid of franking credits all together); just getting rid of rules that result in no taxation is not acceptable.
    The sort of nonsense one expect from the Green.

    The fact is that the ALP proposal is regressive. If calling me a Green makes you feel better about that then go right ahead.


  32. phoenixRED (Block)
    Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 9:41 am
    ..
    US political commentator Bill Palmers say :

    And Melania trump was the only one with the brains to cry when the result cam in.

  33. Question
    The APL proposal is less regressive than the current situation.

    I chose my words carefully; I didn’t call you a green; I noted it was the sort of nonsense one now expects from the greens as they try and support the Liberals.

  34. zoomster @ #39 Friday, March 16th, 2018 – 8:49 am

    Quasar

    I was once on the receiving end of a similar interview – but the interviewer had pre warned me the approach that was going to be taken, and said they knew that I would deal with it and come out looking better than if I had been given a ‘soft’ interview.

    Whether that was Lane’s intention or not, I was reminded of that when listening to Weatherill.

    I have often made similar points about a tough interview.
    Politicians, if they are any good, should be able to handle them.
    Furthermore, they give a skilled politician a chance to really strut their stuff and come out of it looking much better than they would have with an insipid interviewer.

  35. PIACnews: We are very grateful to @GrataFund for backing this case and supporting our clients as they push to ensure that new technology is accessible to everyone. @Graemeinnes twitter.com/sarahfarnswort…
    sarahfarnsworth: Blind woman takes bank to court over ‘inaccessible’ EFTPOS machines @PIACnews abc.net.au/news/2018-03-1… pic.twitter.com/ap9s85lt2d

  37. bemused

    The complaint about Lane is not that she does tough questions of ALP politicians. Its that she does not do this with LNP ones.

  38. frednk
    says:
    Friday, March 16, 2018 at 9:48 am
    Question
    The APL proposal is less regressive than the current situation.

    You do know what progressive taxes are don’t you?

  42. If you know what dividend imputation franking credit rebate is chances are you are doing well for yourself. Another Howard era largesse that needs to be reined in and disproportionally benefit the wealthy.

    If ALP loses Batman than media will portray this as a result of the policy. It’s just what media do, set a narrative and follow through until you Kill bill or claim a scalp.

  43. Russian Hackers Attacking U.S. Power Grid and Aviation, FBI Warns

    Russian hackers are conducting a broad assault on the U.S. electric grid, water processing plants, air transportation facilities and other targets in rolling attacks on some of the country’s most sensitive infrastructure, U.S. government officials said Thursday.

    The announcement was the first official confirmation that Russian hackers have taken aim at facilities on which hundreds of millions of Americans depend for basic services. Bloomberg News reported in July that Russian hackers had breached more than a dozen power plants in seven states, an aggressive campaign that has since expanded to dozens of states, according to a person familiar with the investigation.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15/russian-hackers-attacking-u-s-power-grid-aviation-fbi-warns

  44. Confessions says: Friday, March 16, 2018 at 9:49 am

    Mueller’s subpoena of Trump Org happened on 15 March…..

    *****************************************************************

    Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder · 4h4 hours ago

    -Robert Mueller subpoenaed your company for all documents related to Russia. He didn’t ask you in private. Or let you use your stall tactics. He straight up subpoenaed your business. Funny thing is, he probably already has what he’s asking for.

    I think the dam’s about to burst

  45. TomMcIlroy: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says Australia’s non-discriminatory immigration system should see white South African farmers treated the same as Rohingya muslims or Christians from South Sudan. “I don’t know what has motivated Dutton to make those comments” @abcmelbourne #auspol

  46. The listeria bacteria don’t have to penetrate the hard exterior all by themselves; as soon as you take a knife and cut through the rind it carries the bacteria on the blade to the fruit inside.

  48. At #94 – Mueller almost certainly has the information already; but he wants to see what differs between what he has & what is proffered by the Trump org. From that he can tell more about what they want to hide.

  49. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Friday, March 16, 2018 at 9:43 am

    Another person has died after eating Listeria-affected Rockmelon.

    It’s hard to imagine the bacteria penetrating that hard exterior. I would be interested to know the aetiology.’

    The bacteria get into the flesh when the skin is cut.

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