BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

One new poll result this week leaves the BludgerTrack poll aggregate all but unchanged.

The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,248 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

  1. “With Batman safely out of the way Labor can relax and wait out Trumble and Slomo on this. They can keep their powder dry until those two dopes move and then counter with a better offer.”

    There might be some value in another grenade before budget night, there might not be, it is an interesting game.

  2. TPOF

    its commonsense that shorten confused some folk and caused opposition in others – yes i think it costs seat(s) in narrow contests in SA

    grantedthe effect was last minute and hard to ascertain – but the risk was too high for him to come out swinging last week. big picture my eye. there is always tomorrow, or the day after.

    he was unwise to say the very least

  3. rossmcg @ #2192 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 10:05 pm

    It is great to see some people in Queensland don’t have a problem with asylum seekers who are not white.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/before-most-of-us-had-made-our-morning-coffee-they-were-gone-20180318-p4z4xg.html

    Great article, but it doesn’t mention the petition initiated by people in Biloela started a petition, which I signed, and as a result a reprieve has been granted.
    They need to keep up the pressure to make it permanent.

  4. ratsak
    There is not a lot of play in the age pension, IMO. It is already the single biggest line item in the Budget and even, were nothing else to change, the aging cohorts of Boomers will put major pressure the pension line in the Budget.

  5. ‘geoffrey says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 10:12 pm

    TPOF

    its commonsense that shorten confused some folk and caused opposition in others – yes i think it costs seat(s) in narrow contests in SA

    grantedthe effect was last minute and hard to ascertain – but the risk was too high for him to come out swinging last week. big picture my eye. there is always tomorrow, or the day after.

    he was unwise to say the very least’

    Turnbull already has as many talented advisers as you can poke as stick at but you would undoubtedly be a useful addition.

  6. Confessions

    Just had a look … big R and little r are me.

    Seems to be whether I am logged on to iPad or desktop .

    Bet that is a relief.

  7. When a computer system turns into a pumpkin you restore it to a previous point where you know it was working properly and work forwards from there.

    We should do a backup and restore of Australia to February 29, 1996.


  8. Wot!?! No attack by squadrons of mozzies!?!

    Maybe, I’m largely impervious to them and they don’t seem to think much of me.

    Sandflies, on the other hand…

  9. From Nicholas

    “Ged will have to continue her Green-like ways if she wants to avoid having the shortest parliamentary career since Leonie Short,”

    What complete nonsense.

  10. “Turnbull already has as many talented advisers as you can ..”

    He clearly isn’t listening to them, he is a powerless joke.

  11. Steve 7777

    [Labor really needs to unwind the Howard-Costello middle class welfare legacy. What, lurks and perks for everyone likely to vote “Liberal”, robodebt for those who aren’t and massive wealth transfers from workers to owners, from young to old. It will all collapse in a heap if it isn’t dealt with.]

    Precisely! – and this is how Labor should sell this message. They should attack the myth that Howard and Costello were good economic managers – they need to tell the story of how the LNP wasted the boom, how they could not bring themselves to use surpluses to fund education, health and infrastructure, and instead cut tax to the wealthy, created deliberate loopholes/rorts in the tax system for the wealthy, and failed to collect taxes from the corporations profiting from the boom. Their middle-class welfare and un-means tested handouts every election year should be exposed as the cynical and terrible economic mismanagement that it was. Then Shorten need to link this to Turnbull and ScoMos plans to give tax breaks to the top end of town at the expense of health and education and the inevitable election year handouts we are about to see. The labor messages should be: ‘we will repair the Costello budget loopholes in an equitable and sustainable way’ ; ‘you can’t trust the LNP to get this right – they just want to cut tax to the wealthy and have no plans for nation building’; and ‘don’t let them buy your vote – because you and your kids will pay for it later’.

  12. ‘Rossmcg says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 10:20 pm

    Confessions

    Just had a look … big R and little r are me.’

    That’s what both of you say.

  13. geoffrey @ #2202 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    TPOF

    its commonsense that shorten confused some folk and caused opposition in others – yes i think it costs seat(s) in narrow contests in SA

    grantedthe effect was last minute and hard to ascertain – but the risk was too high for him to come out swinging last week. big picture my eye. there is always tomorrow, or the day after.

    he was unwise to say the very least

    Ah commonsense….

    Reminds me of one of Rumpole’s judicial adversaries:

    “Mr. Justice Oliphant went from mentioning “common sense” and his blunt Northern heritage once or twice a trial to practically every line.”

  14. There is not a lot of play in the age pension, IMO. It is already the single biggest line item in the Budget and even, were nothing else to change, the aging cohorts of Boomers will put major pressure the pension line in the Budget.

    and the ungrateful bastards won’t thank Labor for any increase anyway…

    Which is why I don’t think Shorten will rush out with any goodie offers. Especially some across the board (ie very expensive) Pension change. That would be limiting and give away his advantage. I think Labor will have a long list of potential goodies to offer, and will be on the look out for ways of gazumping Trumble, but what is finally promised will only be enough to get the job done politically.

    The ALP have positioned themselves so that they have incredible flexibility to adapt to any situation.

    With Batman having secured the cash credit axing as a political non event I’d bet on a further ‘courageous’ move on the revenue side before any big expenditure announcements. And probably before the budget. That gives Shorten plenty of room to offer a few sweets in his budget reply to counter anything Slomo tries on and still have billions and billions up his sleeve.

    Labor clearly seems to be looking to under promise in opposition and over deliver in government. So maximising revenue announcements prior to the election and minimising expenditure promises seems to be plan. That way you can probably spend a bit more once you actually get into government and win multiple terms.

  15. ratsak

    Not only is the fam home shielded from capital gains tax, it is not deemed for income purposes in the pension context. That is tens of billions of distortions.

    Now fixing THAT would be political suicide. It is a wonder the Greens haven’t announced it yet.

  16. @Rossmcg

    Right now I would go for Waterloo Belgium!

    2 weeks ago I was in Korea, for work, and everyone kept asking me if I was cold. The answer was, no, this is bliss, and I will stand by that! OK, I needed to put my hands in the pockets of my great coat, and occasionally catch a bus when I would normally have walked, due to the sleet, but I was so glad to be away from the heat and humidity.

  17. thanks but no thanks for the numbered chorus of indignation that the revered leader might have made a mistake .. i proudly big to differ, re his start up firecraker announcement on dividend tax. there seems to be sensitivities on issue esp when people don’t actually address it but stoop to insult person.
    and rex? I am an authentic pseudo thank you, with genuine feelings and opinion, I am a real exclamation mark !

  18. Lol… yes, the delusion is real.

    If the Greens couldn’t beat Labor in these circumstances, they’re not going to next time. This was the chance, they blew it by not having a campaign that spoke to the issues in the actual electorate.

  19. geoffrey says:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 10:12 pm
    TPOF

    its commonsense that shorten confused some folk and caused opposition in others – yes i think it costs seat(s) in narrow contests in SA

    grantedthe effect was last minute and hard to ascertain – but the risk was too high for him to come out swinging last week. big picture my eye. there is always tomorrow, or the day after.

    he was unwise to say the very least

    On Insiders there was the suggestion that Shorten thought he would lose Batman, and that would result in a period of timidity for the ALP, so he went ahead in advance.

    Regardless of the truth, the interesting thing is that logic gives Shorten quite a lot of credit. He is getting promoted from “underestimated” to “deft” by the pundits.

  20. There are pensioners (in their ’80s and 90s) who still have their group certificates from the late 1940s, and these clearly show the breakdown of the income tax they paid into separate portions. One of these is clearly labelled as being for social security ( I’ll have to check the wording).
    This was part of the deal the Commonwealth struck with the states. It would collect the income tax, and a portion would be set aside for pensions (widow’s and aged) and child endowment.
    Menzies changed the law and took the money, by then a very large amount, promising to honour the agreement.
    He didn’t, of course.
    First in a long line of Liberal liars.
    Howard and Costello reduced tax rates on the higher income earners, and squandered the boom.
    Now politicians want to make the pensioners, who paid their taxes at high rates, pay for Liberal profligacy.
    Well, they can start by fixing the taxation system and get rid of the rorts.
    Personally, I’d start with imposing FBT on not-for-profits and Gov’t paymasters. Including politician’s pay!

  21. “Don’t let them buy your vote – because you and your kids will pay for it later’.”

    That’s the message in a nutshell.

  22. “There might be some value in another grenade before budget night, there might not be, it is an interesting game.”

    Hmmmm….i wonder if they ALP is going to propose an increase to Newstart?

    Would blindside the Libs. 🙂 And, being about welfare recipients would really arc up the RWNJobbies element into OTT hysteria. 🙂

    And, i would think that any extra $ that go into Newstart get spent by the recipients very locally. A bit like the $900 cheques that got sent out i the GFC. Could be framed as a better use of the $ the Libs propose spending on company Tax cuts??

    Certainly been something that has been called for for ages and worth doing.

    It would have to be one policy in an integrated package and more than a sarnie and milkshake increase. But………it would qualify as a grenade??

  23. If the Greens couldn’t beat Labor in these circumstances, they’re not going to next time. This was the chance, they blew it by not having a campaign that spoke to the issues in the actual electorate.

    Yep, by-elections (where the government is not on the line) give voters a free chance to protest and favours a party with a ground game. The Batman election was the greens best chance – it’s gone and now there’s a popular incumbent instead of a block of wood.

    That the ALP road tested a major policy announcement and got the greens to side with the Liberals on a policy about the equity of the tax system was a bonus.

  24. best case scenario re Dutton: he has a tilt at the leadership, fails abysmally, everyone laughs at him – then loses his seat next election.

  25. I’m sure some PBers are aware that, if you work for a not-for-profit business (private schools, universities, all sorts of institutions, charities, even the IPA, I believe) then you can use salary sacrifice (employers pays it and deducts it from your salary) to pay for stuff like gym fees, parking fees, priv. school fees, etc, up to $30000 per annum.
    This reduces your taxable income.
    Regular businesses pay FBT on this, but not charities and not-for-profit businesses (nor Gov’t jobs, I believe).
    So an employee on $180000+ will save up to 48% of the cost of the stuff his employers pays for him (or her).
    Of course, an employee on less than $37000 will only save 21% but who said anything about fair?
    I don’t think this one is on anyone’s radar.

  26. best case scenario re Dutton: he has a tilt at the leadership, fails abysmally, everyone laughs at him – then loses his seat next election.

    Better scenario – he loses by 1 vote, still thinks he’s in with a shot, paralyses the Government, which is unable to prosecute its agenda, Government collapses in a heap in the leadup to the next election, in which he, with lots of other Ministers, loses his seat. Everyone laughs then forgets about him. He retires to make money in real estate speculation, loses big when Labor abolishes negative gearing, produces increasingly unhinged rants in far right blogs, shoutback radio and Sky News, sinks into obscurity.

  27. Better scenario – he loses by 1 vote, still thinks he’s in with a shot, paralyses the Government, which is unable to prosecute its agenda, Government collapses in a heap in the leadup to the next election, in which he, with lots of other Ministers, loses his seat. Everyone laughs then forgets about him. He retires to make money in real estate speculation, loses big when Labor abolishes negative gearing, produces increasingly unhinged rants in far right blogs, shoutback radio and Sky News, sinks into obscurity.

    but it would have been better with a different leader than bill

  28. Maude Lynne @ #2233 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 8:34 pm

    I’m sure some PBers are aware that, if you work for a not-for-profit business (private schools, universities, all sorts of institutions, charities, even the IPA, I believe) then you can use salary sacrifice (employers pays it and deducts it from your salary) to pay for stuff like gym fees, parking fees, priv. school fees, etc, up to $30000 per annum.
    This reduces your taxable income.
    Regular businesses pay FBT on this, but not charities and not-for-profit businesses (nor Gov’t jobs, I believe).
    So an employee on $180000+ will save up to 48% of the cost of the stuff his employers pays for him (or her).
    Of course, an employee on less than $37000 will only save 21% but who said anything about fair?
    I don’t think this one is on anyone’s radar.

    Its about $15k per annum. Its grossed up to $30k for the purposes of your reportable fringe benefits amount.

  29. grimace:
    Sunday, March 18, 2018 at 11:45 pm
    “Its about $15k per annum. Its grossed up to $30k for the purposes of your reportable fringe benefits amount.”

    From ATO site it appears to vary, depending on the institution
    https://www.ato.gov.au/non-profit/your-workers/your-obligations-to-workers-and-independent-contractors/fringe-benefits-tax/fbt-concessions/fbt-exemption/
    The ATO leaves it up to the ACNC (Charities & Not-for-profit commission) to determine if an institution qualifies.

    Asic also mentions Salary Sacrifice here
    https://www.moneysmart.gov.au/managing-your-money/income-tax/salary-packaging

  30. The Oz is becoming as deluded and stupid as Turnbull and co,now saying hes nearer to signing the NEG thanks to the Libs winning in SA.

  31. Centrelink update:

    No update from Centrelink.

    Looks like my big 43 page document that I sent them is taking them time to get new excuses.

    Thankfully I will be in Australia end of next month so by the time we get to Brisbane we may get somewhere or directly to the legal aid.

    So the Howard welfare cheats can get stuffed, for all I care in the world.

  32. Shorten made the announcement re franking because he is prepared to stand up and discuss his proposals ever if they are not popular with all the punters.
    Those oldies affected by franking changes know their most important outgoings will involve their health. Whether it is PH premiums or items covered under Medicare, Shorten will do the right thing for them. Health is more important to them than leaving money to their kids.
    Compare that to the Libs in Tas who announced the day after the election what their full package was, go find it on the web. Expect big backflip in SA now Libs are in. Promises, promises now sorry sorry. Their actions on renewables will be watched by all of us.
    Remember the lying Abbott talking about being in lock step with Labor in Education and Health. Didn’t last 3 days, let alone three years.
    So Rex, you put your faith in ScoMo, Dutton and co. They will announce policy on Thursday night before the election and their costings even later.
    Well done Bill, keep upsetting Rex.

  33. Howard and Costello introduced the colander as their preferred method of fiscal responsibility, a duopoly, unreserved in its ability to massage its self-image with a smirking banality and disregard for prudence nor vision.
    Howard and his leftover ragtag of protege, have spent the family fortune on self aggrandizement and pomp, aided by a fawning press, to the point that is Turnbull, an over indulged obnoxious twerp, and all that is remaining in a country where fairness is as rare as a politicians silence.
    Many are aware of the pain to be felt as the Howard era is expunged from mindfulness, the franked dividends just one of a multitude of rorting to be exposed in all its unedifying greed.
    Good luck to Shorten and the Labor team with their challenge. The Howard Liberals and their minnow Nationals, have left a shameful legacy.

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