The only new federal poll this week, from Essential Research, hasn’t made the least bit of difference to the voting intention numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, Labor is up two seats, one in Victoria and one in Western Australia, exacerbating Labor’s hard-to-credit lead in the latter state. One possibly interesting point to emerge from the state breakdowns, which you can explore through the link below, is a spike to the Greens in Victoria – could be a Batman by-election effect, could be noise. Essential also produced its monthly leadership ratings, and they too have made little difference to the relevant trend measures.
Simon Katich @ #2145 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:29 pm
Study Gramsci comrade, or one of the writers who have picked up his ideas.
A small number of pensioners may be affected by Labor’s tax credit policies.
Anybody smart enough to have taken advantage of the benefit will most likely be smart enough to rearrange their affairs to minimise the damage.
There was an article floating around earlier that suggested some ways that might be done.
People with large shareholdings are not generally babes in the investment woods.
And if enough of them decide to change their vote to the Tories (I doubt that a lot are Labor voters anyway) and Turnbull is returned watch out.
ScoMo has a $65million business tax cut to fund and history suggests those on welfare are always top of the Tory list for cuts.
And remember when this policy was announced last week the pundits immediately declared what a dumb idea that was, a few days before a crucial by-election.
Last time I looked Labor was home and hosed.
zoomster @ #2148 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:33 pm
And you know what, that is straight out of Ben Chifley’s play-book.
“Be clear what you believe in and fight for it!” (or wtte)
Rossmcg, ‘A small number of pensioners may be affected by Labor’s tax credit policies.’
Finally someone gets it.
Dutton has never polled above 5% in head-to-head polling inside the Liberal Party.
He is useful to the Coalition because he can dogwhistle to the voters at the PHONey end of the spectrum.
It is why Turnbull looks the other way while Dutton stokes the virus of racism and sectarian hatred.
He would bag the dyed-in-the-wool hard right mob but his capacity to woo the centre is zilch.
His incipient megalomania might incline him to have a burl, but.
PeeBee, why should I as a tax payer be contributing to the $5.7 billion a year paid to shareholders who pay no tax ?
** Dyed in the wool Libs are like that. **
There are definitely around 10-20% of regular Liberal voters who can be swayed – privatisation and the environment are interesting ins. As would be a federal ICAC. How does the ALP position itself to make the pitch?
This SA election day was full of reluctant voters – a sorry mob. Chinda’s post on the other thread was a flare. With record low primaries I do believe the position needs to be found and the pitch needs to be made.
PeeBee @ #2149 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:33 pm
Because, as you have had explained to you numerous times, it is a tax credit that may be offset against tax payable. So if no tax is payable, you don’t get the benefit of that credit which is specifically intended to prevent double taxation.
If you treasure the credit so much, get yourself a taxable income so you can use the benefit of the credit.
VP you shouldn’t. But you will continue to do so (indirectly) to the wealthy investor with the new policy.
PeeBee (Block)
Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:36 pm
Comment #2154
Rossmcg, ‘A small number of pensioners may be affected by Labor’s tax credit policies.’
Finally someone gets it.
But they have a lot of capital and arranged their affair to take advantage of the loop hole.
PeeBee @ #1981 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 8:41 pm
how?
PeeBee @ #2154 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:36 pm
Has anyone ever denied that?
PeeBee (Block)
Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:41 pm
Comment #2159
VP you shouldn’t. But you will continue to do so (indirectly) to the wealthy investor with the new policy.
This loophole shouldn’t be closed because there is another; what absolute rubbish.
The result in Batman was as I called it last week – Ged Kearney was an excellent choice as a candidate. If the ALP get a few more like her, I’ll come back to the fold. Does the ALP selecting such candidates to fend off the Greens mean the progressive labor left who defected to the greens is having greater influence from outside than they did on the inside? I’m getting excited at the prospect of a Shorten government – not because of shorten, but because the real stars of the party are all genuinely left and progressive.
Following the Batman result (and actual swing to labor in SA despite the loss), the RWNJ media who were ready to hang Shorten out to dry because of his ‘class war’ in closing of Howard-Costello tax loopholes for the well to do will have to find something new. The Green’s cynicism in opposing this excellent policy has me reconsidering my membership – I hope their post mortem tells them that it cost them votes – they looked like wealthy wankers to me. If I was a Batman voter this would have had me voting for Ged, despite having a lot of time for Alex Bhathal.
Will there be a newspoll tonight? tick tock.
Meanwhile, from the parallel universe that is the OZ, Greg Sheridan reckons Turnbull has had a ‘brilliant’ week. (maybe compared to the disaster weeks of the barnaby saga?).
bemused @ #2067 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 4:40 pm
Ah, yes. 😆
Vogon Poet @ #2156 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:38 pm
You aren’t.
The $5.7 billion is company tax. Not PAYE or any other tax paid by individuals.
Is there anyone here still getting anything new or useful from this ongoing debate about the effect of Labor’s franking credit proposals? I know that I’ve seen the lot now and it is just endless repetition.
The $5.7 billion is company tax. Not PAYE or any other tax paid by individuals.
That’s not correct. The cash payments come out of consolidated revenue. Money is fungible.
Simon Katich @ #2157 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:39 pm
So you have completed the course of study I recommended and it didn’t help?
Then try this: “Don’t Think of an Elephant!: Know Your Values and Frame the Debate–The Essential Guide for Progressives” by George Lakoff.
https://www.amazon.com/Dont-Think-Elephant-Debate-Progressives/dp/1931498717
VP. Currently, a wealthy person gets a credit on the one hand, and pays tax for, say dividend income, on the other.
Under the policy, the wealthy person can use the credit to pay their tax liability. Hence your tax dollars are still paying for the credit indirectly. The wealthy are no worse off.
On the other hand you will be pleased to know your hard earned tax dollars will not be going to the poorer/pensioner investor with no tax to offset.
bemused @ #1988 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 8:44 pm
Hasn’t the company tax been paid to the government, who are then gifting it to PeeBee’s ?
Peebee
thanks … and as an afterthought can I add that I pay somebody to manage my finances. It doesn’t come cheap but I wear the cost as I know SFA and so far he has achieved the goals we agreed on at the start.
If some arrangement he has advised me into stops delivering I will be on the phone quick smart asking how we change things. It’s not set and forget when we are talking hundreds of thousands of dollars.
People who may be affected by Labor’s policy change to the tune of the amounts we have read about in the media would be better advised to speak to a professional, not a journalist.
I hang around on some traveller forums and you see people asking for advice in those places. Scary. And so is some of the advice they receive.
Better to ask a Uber driver.
TPOF: yep, I’ll bow out of this now. Labor has announced policy and I agree with it.
#WeatheronPB: Still 33° in Sydney, but a cooler change is not far away.
** I’ve been involved in campaigns when Labor was at a really low ebb **
Zoomster – I dont feel like Labor is at a low ebb in SA. The Liberals fell over the line – there is no euphoria in the electorate for their victory. If anything it is change for change sake and for that reason and a few others I expect Labor to return to government in 4 years time.
But I do feel that politics is at a low ebb and the parties are squabbling over dropped chips.
Bemused
**Study Gramsci comrade**
I did. Maybe I need to brush up. The books and papers are in a box only 2 metres away but I spent the afternoon caulking (I friggin hate caulking) and tonight the most I can do is post babble on here.
TPOF @ #2166 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
It’s become like the electricity wars: endless repetition.
Technically VP hasn’t contributed to the refund. The company paying the dividend contributed 100% of the refund. Having said that I appreciate both sides of this discussion.
If imputation is only about avoiding double tax then the PB majority is correct. If imputation is about company dividends being taxed at a shareholder’s marginal rate, which could be 0%, then Pee Bee has a point.
I see the bigger issue as structures that allow people to distribute income to avoid tax or take advantage of rebates like the imputation system.
Is there anyone here still getting anything new or useful from this ongoing debate about the effect of Labor’s franking credit proposals? I know that I’ve seen the lot now and it is just endless repetition.
Nope.
And politically the entire debate died when it became clear last night that Ged had romped it in with a swing to her.
Sustainable future @ #2164 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:44 pm
Candidates like Ged and many others don’t just materialise, they are drawn from Labor’s membership and chosen by the membership.
Don’t moan about the quality of candidates if you don’t get involved.
Frednk, ‘This loophole shouldn’t be closed because there is another; what absolute rubbish.’
Fair enough, if they close the loophole completely, but they aren’t.
PeeBee @ #1992 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 8:49 pm
Sounds like the wealthy person has paid it, not me.
Labor really needs to unwind the Howard-Costello middle class welfare legacy. What, lurks and perks for everyone likely to vote “Liberal”, robodebt for those who aren’t and massive wealth transfers from workers to owners, from young to old. It will all collapse in a heap if it isn’t dealt with.
ratsak @ #2168 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:47 pm
Getting rather technical aren’t we?
It is notionally a credit for company tax paid by the company, that can be offset against personal tax paid by the shareholder.
“The other thing with PeeBee’s responses is that they are completely in isolation with no thought for what other policies Labor have in the wings.
Labor may and probably do have measures that address many of your concerns.”
The obvious other shoe to drop on this is exactly what adjustment to pensions will be made. I wonder if the ALP strategy is to wait while their opponents over-reach with their hyperbole before doing this.
If they haven’t already through this through then their announcement was premature but that seems unlikely.
The pensioner that has a small investment is better off than the pensioner without a small investment.
They are not about to starve because they can eat their capital. I understand that they may not want to do this – I wouldn’t – but they are not at the bottom of the pile when it comes to incomes or assets.
Give the size of the cash rebates earned by some very wealthy retirees, the magnitude of the revenue to be retained by govt under this policy change, and the potential for much better-targeted assistance for retirees and pensioners in the position you are referring to, I think the downsides of the policy aren’t anywhere as bad you seem to think.
Rossmcg @ #2152 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:35 pm
Also a relatively so called ‘small’ group of people on the taxpayer funded Aged Pension are highly unlikely to be receiving almost $6 B in refunds from the ATO each year.
The bulk of the $6 B will be going to so called ‘self funded’ (ie wealthy) Pensioners – a totally different group.
I suspect the small group of taxpayer funded pensioners effected will be able to be helped by Labor – the rest can squeal until the cows come home as far as I’m concerned.
Let them knock themselves out with their winging and whining – by election time most people will have had a gutful of them.
OK, if it’s electricity wars Mark II, I’l retire, cheers .
Vogon Poet @ #2171 Sunday, March 18th, 2018 – 9:49 pm
Yes.
** So you have completed the course of study I recommended and it didn’t help? **
I do appreciate your and zoomsters thoughts on this. There is a valuable wealth of experience on here and occasionally it makes it way out through the fog of whatever war you are fighting that day.
And you havent mentioned it yet – Labour (and to a lesser extent Labor) have tried re-branding before. The lessons of New Labour are not to be forgotten. Both the bad and the good.
Boarwar,
“Relax everyone. Marshall has a Plan.”
LOL.
But is it a cunning plan?
Oops..Boerwar.
@bemused
Those on welfare do not because they can’t have shares or other investments otherwise they decrease the payments.
So not everyone.
Only the rich can benefit from this policy, because they can afford it.
It is great to see some people in Queensland don’t have a problem with asylum seekers who are not white.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/before-most-of-us-had-made-our-morning-coffee-they-were-gone-20180318-p4z4xg.html
@steve777
This is the most hopeful post I have read on Pollbludger tonight. I need to work into the wee small hours, and it is still 31 C in my home office! And, I am only a few ks from Sydney Harbour, Botany Bay, and Beaches. We do not have air conditioning, because the sea breeze means things usually cool down here.
#WeatherOnPB #WeatherInWaterloo*
*Waterloo Australia, not the one in Belgium.
Howard and Costello added 5,000 pages to the Tax Act.
Many of those pages were about further enriching people who needed no further enrichment.
And the combined intellect of Bludger is having the devil of a time coming to grips with just a few pages of it!
What should happen is that dividend imputation should be scrapped.
What will almost certainly happen is that rich people will be skun off billions and some collateral damage poor people will be looked after by a Shorten government that will do that sorts of things.
Thanks all for the civilised discussion on dividend imputation credits policy, but I’m off to bed. Good night.
Getting rather technical aren’t we?
Not really. It’s like the idea of certain taxes being tied to a certain expenditure ie the Medicare Levy. It’s complete bullshit.
Vogon is correct in that all tax payers are paying for the cash benefit because all taxpayers contribute to ALL government expenditures because all taxes are consolidated and then expenditures are paid out of that consolidated revenue.
If a government only has limited means of expenditure (and most people other than Nicholas would agree they do) but has a potential for expenditure much greater than than their means of expenditure then choices have to be made. The tax coming out of consolidated revenue to pay for cash credits to a few wealthy retirees could alternatively be spent on something like free dental care for the entire nation. If the government decided to try and do both then something else couldn’t be funded.
So trying to argue that it is just the corporate tax is entirely wrong. Even if you artificially hypothecated the tax the natural consequence is that revenue is now not available for other uses and this must be made up from other sources (namely Vogon’s tax) so it still in effect comes out of those taxes.
Douglas
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=weather+in+waterloo+belgium&oq=weather+in+waterloo+belgium&aqs=chrome..69i57.12039j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Work to Rule at 9.53pm.
The stupidity and incompetence of Turnbull and his government means that there is very unlikely to be an election until next April or May as to do so earlier would be suicidal. Of course Turnbull is stupid enough to do it, but that will work for Labor the way it did last time.
This means that the Labor opposition can do what governments do – introduce the policies that will induce screams and howls from those who have to give up something mid-term and then come up with the vote-winning goodies just before the election.
To the extent that introducing this policy now was a gamble on the result of Batman, it has been proven that it is not disastrous even in the short term. The way is very clear now for Labor to go back to the good old days when it was prepared to publish a whole suite of policies, including some that may cause pain to some people who might be Labor voters, that will make this a better country without being so terrified of losing the next election that a risk-averse approach would guarantee losing the next election.
Are small r rossmcg and capital R Rossmcg the same commenter?
I’ve seen two iterations of this screen name comment here the past couple weeks and have always wondered whether they are one and same.
The obvious other shoe to drop on this is exactly what adjustment to pensions will be made. I wonder if the ALP strategy is to wait while their opponents over-reach with their hyperbole before doing this.
With Batman safely out of the way Labor can relax and wait out Trumble and Slomo on this. They can keep their powder dry until those two dopes move and then counter with a better offer.