BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Little change this week on the federal polling aggregate. Also featured: preselection news, minor polling snippets, and the latest changes to the configuration of the Senate.

There were two polls this week, one a little better for the Coalition than usual (52-48 from ReachTEL), one a little worse (54-46 from Essential Research). These add up to not much change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, albeit that the Coalition are up one on the seat aggregates for Victoria and Western Australia. No new numbers this week for the leadership ratings.

Latest developments on the ever-changing face of the Senate:

• South Australian Senator Lucy Gichuhi has subtly improved the government’s position in the Senate by joining the Liberal Party. Gichuhi was the second candidate on the Family First ticket at the 2016 election, which unexpectedly earned her a place in the Senate in April last year in place of Bob Day. The High Court had ruled that Day had been ineligible to run at the election by virtue of a pecuniary interest in an agreement with the Commonwealth, and that the votes should be recounted as if Day were absent from the ballot paper. However, this coincided with Family First’s absorption within Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives start-up, which Gichuhi was not willing to join. She has since sat as an independent, albeit one that has usually voted with the government. Her move to the Liberals neatly brings the South Australian Senate contingent into line with the party configuration that emerged from the election, a situation that was disturbed when Cory Bernardi quit the Liberal Party.

• Kristina Keneally will take Sam Dastyari’s place in the Senate after winning the decisive endorsement of the NSW Right without opposition, seeing off suggestions that she might face a challenge from Transport Workers Union state secretary Tony Sheldon or United Voice official Tara Moriarty. A report in the Sydney Morning Herald suggests Sheldon might have been able to take the position if he had pressed the issue, with the support of the Australian Workers Union, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and Transport Workers Union, but favoured seeking a position at the next election as it would give him a full six-year term.

Miscellaneous miscellany:

Barrie Cassidy makes a case for a federal election being held later this year.

The Australian reports that Michael Danby’s potential successors in Melbourne Ports include Josh Burns, a senior adviser to Daniel Andrews, and Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not the former state MP). However, it is not yet clear that Danby will retire, or be forced out if he chooses to stay, with a Labor source quoted in an earlier report from The Australian saying Danby had 80% support in local branches. Linfox executive Ari Suss and Labor historian Nick Dyrenfurth, who were mentioned earlier, have apparently ruled themselves out.

• Lyle Shelton, who gained a high profile as managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby during the same-sex marriage referendum, has resigned his position ahead of a run for federal parliament, which will apparently be with the Australian Conservatives in Queensland — presumably as its lead Senate candidate.

• According to Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser, Robert Simms, who held a Senate seat from September 2015 to July 2016, would “likely have the numbers” to take top spot on the Greens’ South Australian Senate ticket if he challenged Sarah Hanson-Young.

• The ABC reports a small sample YouGov Galaxy poll of 350 respondents suggested Nick Xenophon Team member Rebekha Sharkie would retain her seat of Mayo at a by-election if disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship. The poll had Sharkie with a 59-41 two-party lead over the Liberals, from primary votes of 37% for Sharkie, 33% for the Liberals and 18% for Labor.

Fairfax reports a ReachTEL poll of 3312 respondents for the Stop Adani Alliance found 65.1% opposed to Adani’s coal mine proposal in Queensland, up from 51.9% in March 2017. It also found 73.5% support for ending the expansion of coal mining and accelerating solar power construction and storage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

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  1. ‘There’s a lot of anger’: FBI agents furious over GOP’s assault on the agency that may damage it for years

    Longtime FBI agents — as well as other law enforcement officials — are furious with the Republican Party over the release of a memo compiled by the office of House intel head Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) that attacks an ongoing investigation into the Trump White House, saying conservatives have done irreparable damage to the agency that has always been considered a bastion of rectitude.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/theres-lot-anger-fbi-agents-furious-gops-assault-agency-may-damage-years/

  2. “And a sh$tload of humungous sharks to add to the experience!”

    Lol! Mate of a dive buddy was into bounce dives. Sponge gardens at Esperance @ 45-55m good spots for shell collecting back in the day. Jet black Cypraea rosselli what he was after. Busted by big white some years ago while doing a deco stop at about 5m, but saw it coming, not one of those fast attackes so white not particularly serious about it. Took off his tank and BC and pushed it out as it came in, and while it was worrying that his boat/driver came in and picked him up. thing about Esperance is lots of sea lions. Sharks pretty well fed on food they are used to.

    “was that WA’s beaches are pathetic ”

    So…we have a replacement for the Snowy Hydro and RGR wars???? 🙂

    We will fight them on the beaches……………

  3. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am

    NeoLib-Lab types like briefly will no doubt bluster in defence of trickle down.

    You’ve reduced yourself to verballing other bludgers, RD. This is facile, as usual.

    Trickle down economics is your thing, briefly. Don’t be shy to admit it now !
    You are a complete ratbag Rex!
    I don’t always agree with Briefly, but you are simply lying about his views.
    AFAIR no-one on PB has defended trickle down economics. No-one!

  4. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    briefly @ #128 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am

    NeoLib-Lab types like briefly will no doubt bluster in defence of trickle down.

    You’ve reduced yourself to verballing other bludgers, RD. This is facile, as usual.
    Trickle down economics is your thing, briefly. Don’t be shy to admit it now !

    I doubt you would know a trickle-down economist if they were p@@#sing on you from a low height.

    I have never been an advocate for that nonsense. I’m an egalitarian who believes in greater socialisation of the economy at all levels, and who believes we should increase the capital intensity – taken very broadly – of the economy in order to increase incomes and opportunity for the whole population.

    You don’t believe in anything except assisting the LNP.

  5. ‘All smoke, no fire’: Law professor dissects Nunes memo and finds it ‘punts’ when it comes to facts

    Joining the chorus of legal and political experts deriding House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes’ (R-CA) dud memo is law professor Orrin S. Kerr, who said the four-page document is “more confusing than illuminating.”

    In his Saturday op-ed for The New York Times, Kerr noted that Nunes’ memo is supposed to make the case that the Department of Justice and the FBI purposefully omitted key facts when applying for a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant for former senior Trump campaign aide Carter Page. According to the University of Southern California law professor, however, they fail even to do that

    “The memo gives us too little information to make a conclusion about whether the government abused the surveillance laws,” he concludes. “It’s a partial view when we need a panorama to know what happened

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/smoke-no-fire-law-professor-dissects-nunes-memo-finds-punts-comes-facts/

  6. **I still reckon the south coast of WA has the best beaches. **
    ‘fess.

    I really liked Denmark and surrounds when I visited once for a wedding.

    Kangaroo Island has great beaches. Vivonne Bay and Stokes Bay especially. But a pain to get to thanks to the most expensive (per km) ferry on the planet.

  7. “You have a problem with him because he’s in favour of policing?

    I don’t get it.”

    Ahhhh….all you need to say about this is “Deep State” and “Coup” dont cha no??

    RWNJobbies have it all rationalized for you.

  8. rossmcg @ #149 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Hopefully thousands of potential tourists will read Don’s advice about how crap WA beaches are and stay away so we can enjoy them in relative peace.

    Don also implied that good NSW beaches stop at Woollongong. Not true. There are plenty of great beaches further south, but the water can get a bit cold.

  9. in Oct 2016 the locals assured us the trip was fast and safe so we drove a small 4WD along the beach from Cape Le Grande to Esperance. The beach started wide hard packed sand but half way along the beach narrowed and we drove in soft sand amongst washed up seaweed – a very memorable trip and a timely reminder that storms change the contour of the beach regularly

  10. Confessions @ #152 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    daretotread @ #147 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 9:04 am

    Oh and Confessions and everyone else about to go in to bat for that “wonnerful” hero Rosenstein he is THIS guy
    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/456090/rod-rosenstein-deputy-attorney-general-proactive-policing-baltimore

    Oh grow up. Rosenstein is a Republican, appointed by Trump.

    No-one does irony quite as good as Confessions!

  11. “I really liked Denmark and surrounds when I visited once for a wedding.”

    Greens Pool @ Denmark takes a lot of beating as a beautiful, and safe swimming spot.

    Well worth a visit, particularly if travelling with kids.

  12. Australia has great beaches. Lots of personal judgement comes into it when rating beaches. e.g.. Tasmania has some great beaches but not paid much attention to due to cold climate.

  13. At least 50,000 homes in SA will be given solar panels and batteries in a scheme by Elon Musk’s Tesla to build the world’s largest virtual power plant, slashing household power bills in the process.

    Under the scheme unveiled by the SA Government, solar systems and batteries will be supplied and installed free of charge.

    The cost of the project will be financed through the sale of electricity, generated by the panels, in what Premier Jay Weatherill said would be the largest project of its kind.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-04/elon-musk-tesla-to-give-solar-panels-batteries-to-sa-homes/9394352

  14. If I was in South Australia I would be voting Labor. Kicking home runs with the renewable energy push. Lucky South Australian Bastards having a good government.

  15. SK:

    Denmark is beautiful, esp Greens Pool as imacca said. But there are parts of the coast around Albany that are simply stunning.

  16. briefly @ #156 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:10 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    briefly @ #128 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am

    NeoLib-Lab types like briefly will no doubt bluster in defence of trickle down.

    You’ve reduced yourself to verballing other bludgers, RD. This is facile, as usual.
    Trickle down economics is your thing, briefly. Don’t be shy to admit it now !

    I doubt you would know a trickle-down economist if they were p@@#sing on you from a low height.

    I have never been an advocate for that nonsense. I’m an egalitarian who believes in greater socialisation of the economy at all levels, and who believes we should increase the capital intensity – taken very broadly – of the economy in order to increase incomes and opportunity for the whole population.

    You don’t believe in anything except assisting the LNP.

    Hmmm… I’ll take your renunciation of trickle down on face value and welcome your socialistic declaration… but I’ll be watching closely for any variations in your contributions

  17. PhoenixRed

    The Nunes memo is a big fat dud, and actually doesn’t help Trump at all. Hence why I reckon he has become a witness for the prosecution. Lol!

    It is all part of the shit show that is the Trump imbroglio

  18. Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    29m29 minutes ago
    Former sr. natl security official: “As a public servant I was taught to never take official action for personal gain. That is exactly what our president has done. He personally ordered the declassification of the memo, not for political purposes, but for personal purposes. 1/2

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    29m29 minutes ago
    “… The proof of that is his claim that he has now been ‘vindicated’ by the memo. In my view this conflict of interest is the real story. Not the memo itself, which doesn’t contain much we didn’t already know.” 2/2

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:25 pm

    Hmmm… I’ll be watching closely for any variations in your contributions

    Are you Peter Dutton?

  20. My beach for the next few weeks. 🙂 🙂
    ?output-quality=75&output-format=progressive-jpeg&interpolation=lanczos-none&fit=inside%7C980%3A880

  21. Victoria @ #173 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:27 pm

    PhoenixRed

    The Nunes memo is a big fat dud, and actually doesn’t help Trump at all. Hence why I reckon he has become a witness for the prosecution. Lol!

    It is all part of the shit show that is the Trump imbroglio

    But as per Fess’ post above yours, it appears that it is enough for Trump to launch his ‘vindication’ campaign off the back of.

    That man makes me want to puke! There is no low too low for him to stoop to in the cause of his self-preservation! He really is up there with the most devious criminals the world has ever produced!

  22. “four separate federal judges approved the surveillance of Mr. Page, and all of those judges were appointed by Republican presidents.”

    Carter Page bragged about Kremlin ties in 2013

    As Time reported Saturday, former senior Trump campaign policy adviser Carter Page told an academic press contact that he was an “informal adviser” to the Kremlin.

    “Over the past half year, I have had the privilege to serve as an informal advisor to the staff of the Kremlin in preparation for their Presidency of the G-20 Summit next month, where energy issues will be a prominent point on the agenda,” he wrote in the letter, dated August 25, 2013.

    Page’s admission in the letter, acquired by Time, disputes a key claim in House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes’ (R-CA) memo — that Page was unconstitutionally surveilled by the Justice Department and FBI. Republicans in favor of the memo argue that the controversial Fusion GPS dossier alleging ties between President Donald Trump and Russia was used as the primary factor in acquiring surveillance warrants for Page.

    The memo itself, near the end, includes a note that a counterintelligence investigation was triggered not by Page, but by his fellow former campaign aide George Papadopoulos

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/busted-carter-page-bragged-kremlin-ties-2013/

  23. C@t:

    Remember what David Frum said yesterday: the purpose of the memo is to give Hannity and other Trump apologists an official looking piece of paper with words on it to wave around. Thus ‘vindicating’ Trump.

  24. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:30 pm
    briefly @ #175 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:28 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:25 pm

    Hmmm… I’ll be watching closely for any variations in your contributions

    Are you Peter Dutton?
    I’m your social conscience.

    Ohhhh…..that is a very big claim to make. Are you self-appointed? Do you come with a warranty?

  25. Confessions @ #184 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:35 pm

    C@t:

    Remember what David Frum said yesterday: the purpose of the memo is to give Hannity and other Trump apologists an official looking piece of paper with words on it to wave around. Thus ‘vindicating’ Trump.

    They should be waving around blank sheets of paper because the Nunes Memo proves nothing! And vindicates no one!

  26. C@t:

    The Nunes memo could’ve been an ancient Swahili wedding recital for all the good it is, but that won’t mean a thing to Trumpists. For them it is proof Mueller’s investigation is flawed.

  27. “the agency that has always been considered a bastion of rectitude.”

    When did the FBI become a “bastion of rectitude”? They are a not particularly accountable agency with a long history of abusing its considerable power over citizens.

  28. C@tmomma @ #180 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 11:33 am

    PhoenixRed

    The Nunes memo is a big fat dud, and actually doesn’t help Trump at all. Hence why I reckon he has become a witness for the prosecution. Lol!

    It is all part of the shit show that is the Trump imbroglio

    But as per Fess’ post above yours, it appears that it is enough for Trump to launch his ‘vindication’ campaign off the back of.

    Of course it is. Understanding why the memo is a dud takes nuance. Trump steamrolls over nuance with lies, name-calling, and conspiracy theories.

    The only thing I don’t get is why Trump’s critics in the media and elsewhere don’t seem to understand this yet and still try to undermine him using nuanced arguments, facts, and reason. What’s needed are outright, blatant, and sensational accusations supported by just the barest shred of truth and out-of-context facts (if even), fully articulated in 140 characters or less. That’s how you cut through to Trump’s supporters and get Trump to STFU and GTFO.

  29. Confessions @ #191 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:41 pm

    C@t:

    The Nunes memo could’ve been an ancient Swahili wedding recital for all the good it is, but that won’t mean a thing to Trumpists. For them it is proof Mueller’s investigation is flawed.

    Because, as a r articulates well, basically the Trumpists have yawning chasms between their ears where their brains used to be. Fox Propaganda replaced their critical thinking faculties years ago. And to think Australia produced Murdoch!

  30. AR

    Look at Alabama.

    There is a blue wave coming. Trump only won by a few thousand votes. Its always harder to win a second term.

    Those few thousand votes can easily be outdone by the experience of reality vs propaganda Trump presented at last election.

    The racism alone could see black woman voters come out in force for any Democrat.

    Thats if the Democrats don’t win enough seats to impeach before that.

  31. pritu says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:40 pm
    Re. Bulk billing doctors. A great many of them are actually not wedded to their tills and do an excellent job.

    Absolutely correct. dtt, as usual, is simply revealing their snobbery. Socialised medicine is beneath them.

  32. The American Civil Liberties Union of Massachusetts Technology for Liberty Project, February 2016:

    At issue in the ongoing litigation over FBI redactions is whether the public can hold law enforcement agencies accountable for how they spend our money and act in our names. If we don’t know anything about how law enforcement agencies operate, we can’t hold them accountable. Unaccountable law enforcement is not only bad for freedom; it also harms public safety. As history demonstrates, when the FBI is allowed to conduct its business in the dark, precious government resources are inevitably dedicated to spying on people who threaten the status quo, but who do not threaten their fellow Americans.

    While antidemocratic in the extreme, it’s easy to understand why the FBI wants to keep budget, staffing, and investigations statistics secret from the public.

    When the public learned about the FBI’s illegal and antidemocratic COINTELPRO operations in the 1970s, the attorney general imposed rules forbidding the FBI from spying on people unless agents could show the targets were likely violating the law. After 9/11, those rules were scrapped. The new guidelines allow FBI agents to open investigations (called “assessments”) against people absent any suspicion of wrongdoing. Since the 9/11 attacks the bureau has been free to spy on people it doesn’t suspect of criminal activity, supposedly because suspicionless investigations are required during the permanent “war on terror.”

    https://www.aclu.org/blog/national-security/secrecy/fbi-says-it-cant-disclose-its-records-because-then-public-would-know

  33. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:44 pm
    “the agency that has always been considered a bastion of rectitude.”

    When did the FBI become a “bastion of rectitude”? They are a not particularly accountable agency with a long history of abusing its considerable power over citizens.

    Still Trumpaholic, N. Are you going to seek help? Admission of a problem is the first step to finding resolution.

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