Batman by-election guide

Introducing the third in an ongoing series of by-elections arising from the Section 44 imbroglio.

The text is a work in progress, but I have a Batman by-election page up, which will keep score ahead of the by-election initiated by David Feeney’s resignation announcement yesterday. This is replete with the full English of charts and maps detailing past results and the electorate’s demographic characteristics. The highlights for my money are a chart showing the rather extraordinary progress of the primary vote since the Greens first fielded a candidate in 1996, and a booth results map that shows the neat precision with which Bell Street divided the booths the Greens won in 2016 from those won by Labor. If you would like more of my thoughts on the subject of the Batman by-election, there will hopefully be an article on the subject from me in Crikey today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

35 comments on “Batman by-election guide”

  4. The Liberals are conflicted about fielding a candidate…

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/batman-byelection-liberals-to-test-greens-candidates-background-for-anti-semitic-links-20180201-h0sck0.html

    blockquote>The Liberal Party will examine the record of Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, looking for links to any “anti-Semitic” activity before deciding to put up a candidate in the looming Batman by-election in Melbourne’s inner-north.

    Liberal Victorian state president Michael Kroger said he wanted the party to field candidates against Greens who had been involved in protests and campaigns against Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. Mr Kroger regards such protests as anti-Semitic activity.

    :::
    Mr Kroger told ABC Radio on Friday morning that he felt “not good at all” about running a campaign that would, in effect, support one of Australia’s most senior trade unionists, Labor’s Ged Kearney.

    “But I’d feel worse if we did not run at all and our preferences were not directed against the Greens and we elected a Greens member who has a record of anti-Semitism,” Mr Kroger told the ABC.

    Mr Kroger said the state Liberal hierarchy would meet with the party’s Batman branch next week to discuss the question of running a candidate.

    But the decision on whether to field a candidate in Batman will go all the way to the top of the Liberals’ national apparatus, with the party’s administrative committee talking to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull about whether to enter the contest.

  5. Doug
    According to Wayne , it appears any ALP loss is LNP gain, although Greens have a chance to win.
    Also, Greens voted with LNP in government & opposition. Hence, in Wayne’s world, Greens win is LNP’s win. By the way, isn’t Wayne the same robot who operated during Bennelong by-election?

  6. The LNP will win the seat of Batman and longman Braddon and also freematle and our great LNP will be in Government till 2022 and beyond and ALP will never be in government again while shorten is leader

  8. Batman will be delicious ! labor couldn’t even manage a preselection but rather installed a union hack who doesn’t even live in the electorate. shameful ! Go Bhathal ! go Greens !

  9. 63.62% of 2CP Liberal preferences went to the ALP in 2016. In either case – whether they stand, but have (presumably) a lower turnout, or don’t stand at all, there will probably be less ‘Lib’ votes going to the ALP in the by-election.

  11. I am not sure the Liberals concern over the Greens stance on Israel will have much traction in Batman
    Kroger is being ignorant calling Greens anti-Semitic as Palestinians are Semites too.

  12. billie,

    Krogers comments are about reassuring the Zionist vote in other Melbourne electorates that the Libs have impeccable credentials. jewishnews.net.au has been down for the last couple of days, so I’ve linked to the cached version from google

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-lApHkf1kMsJ:https://www.jewishnews.net.au/heading-off-bds-batman/73335+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

    IF embattled federal Labor MP David Feeney is forced to recontest his seat because of citizenship issues, the Liberals are likely to run a candidate in order to preference against any Greens candidate favouring boycotts, divestment and sanctions (BDS) against Israel.

    Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger said that even though polling shows the Liberals are unlikely to win Feeney’s inner Melbourne seat of Batman, heading off a likely Greens victory – and enabling Feeney, a pro-Israel, pro-US MP to win – was something the Liberals are actively considering.

    Feeney has taken part in a number of anti-BDS campaigns in the past, showing solidarity with SodaStream and Max Brenner when they were targeted by activists.

    Feeney, who was elected to Batman in 2013 and again in 2016, has informed Parliament he is unable to find paperwork proving he was not a British citizen at the time of his election to the seat.

    His case is before the High Court, which may rule that he has to recontest the seat in a by-election. Meanwhile, spurred by Feeney’s likely defeat at the ballot box, the Turnbull government has called for the Labor MP to face voters in a by-election.

    Speaking on Sky News on January 22, Kroger said: “We didn’t run in a state seat in Batman recently; we decided not to run and the Greens defeated Labor. We haven’t decided yet but we’re considering whether we would run in a [federal] by-election [for Batman]. If we didn’t, it would be likely that the Greens would win that seat from Labor.

    “We would do everything we can to check on the credentials of these Greens candidates. You’ve seen a number of anti-Semitic comments by Greens members and senators, you’ve seen Greens participate in the discriminatory BDS campaign against Israel.

    “So we would go through every Greens candidate’s credentials, their speeches, their participation in BDS rallies, to see if there were any elements of anti-Semitism, and if there were, we would probably run and would certainly preference against the Greens candidate, particularly in the case of someone like Feeney, who has been very pro-Israel and pro-American,” said Kroger.

    Caulfield MP David Southwick told The AJN that in this year’s state election, Victorian Liberals “will not be looking at preferencing any Labor or Greens candidates who support BDS. As [state Liberal leader] Matthew Guy has said, we consider ourselves to be a pro-Zionist party and strong supporters of Israel”.

    It’s all about the Libs proving they are impeccably pro-Israel to woo Jewish donors and voters ahead of the upcoming state and federal elections, and very little to do with Batman per se.

  13. This is from AJN published 6 days ago. I’ve tried posting the link but it seems the J word results in the post being blocked… Google for the title – the site appears to be down so use the cached version.

    Heading off BDS in Batman

    IF embattled federal Labor MP David Feeney is forced to recontest his seat because of citizenship issues, the Liberals are likely to run a candidate in order to preference against any Greens candidate favouring boycotts, divestment and sanctions (BDS) against Israel.

    Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger said that even though polling shows the Liberals are unlikely to win Feeney’s inner Melbourne seat of Batman, heading off a likely Greens victory – and enabling Feeney, a pro-Israel, pro-US MP to win – was something the Liberals are actively considering.

    Feeney has taken part in a number of anti-BDS campaigns in the past, showing solidarity with SodaStream and Max Brenner when they were targeted by activists.

    Feeney, who was elected to Batman in 2013 and again in 2016, has informed Parliament he is unable to find paperwork proving he was not a British citizen at the time of his election to the seat.

    His case is before the High Court, which may rule that he has to recontest the seat in a by-election. Meanwhile, spurred by Feeney’s likely defeat at the ballot box, the Turnbull government has called for the Labor MP to face voters in a by-election.

    Speaking on Sky News on January 22, Kroger said: “We didn’t run in a state seat in Batman recently; we decided not to run and the Greens defeated Labor. We haven’t decided yet but we’re considering whether we would run in a [federal] by-election [for Batman]. If we didn’t, it would be likely that the Greens would win that seat from Labor.

    “We would do everything we can to check on the credentials of these Greens candidates. You’ve seen a number of anti-Semitic comments by Greens members and senators, you’ve seen Greens participate in the discriminatory BDS campaign against Israel.

    “So we would go through every Greens candidate’s credentials, their speeches, their participation in BDS rallies, to see if there were any elements of anti-Semitism, and if there were, we would probably run and would certainly preference against the Greens candidate, particularly in the case of someone like Feeney, who has been very pro-Israel and pro-American,” said Kroger.

    Caulfield MP David Southwick told The AJN that in this year’s state election, Victorian Liberals “will not be looking at preferencing any Labor or Greens candidates who support BDS. As [state Liberal leader] Matthew Guy has said, we consider ourselves to be a pro-Zionist party and strong supporters of Israel”.

    So it’s all about playing to the J-vote in seats like Melbourne Ports, which the Libs have a good chance of winning if they can peel enough voters away from Danby. The article has a picture of Conroy, Danby and Feeney sipping hot chocolate at Max Brenner’s.

  14. The Greens have a recent history of selecting bad candidates for winnable seats, like AmyMcMahon in South Brisbane -the kindess description of her being ‘space cadet’.

    Alex Bhathal may well be another bad candidate, with those in the know using terms like ‘polarising’ and ‘divisive’. Now this may just be a reflection of the cult of personality disputes between the various Trot and treehugger factions within the Vic Greens, which I’m guessing mirror the disfunctional NSW chapter. But it may also be reflective of the candidate.

    Why does this matter? In close contests, the on the ground game and attributes of the candidate matter.

  15. Adani

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/03/batman-byelection-adani-casts-long-shadow-over-former-labor-stronghold

    The Melbourne electorate of Batman is more than 1,700km south of the proposed Adani Carmichael coal mine. Despite the distance — and two state lines — the mine is shaping up to be the leading issue in the fight to win the newly vacated seat.

    With Labor strategists blaming the loss of the state seat of Northcote to the Greens in a November byelection on the Adani mine issue, they are determined not to be caught out again.

    Di Natale said he expected the Adani mine would be “front and centre” in the byelection, and that Labor would declare itself opposed to it before the campaign was over.

    That’s also the aim of climate not-for-profit 350.org, which launched a volunteer door-knocking and phone-banking campaign on Tuesday, similar to the one run in the Queensland state election, aiming to push Labor into ruling out support for Adani.

  16. sprocket is way off.

    I am no fan of the Victorian Greens overall, but Alex Bhathal’s a brilliant candidate. She is there at every rally on every local issue and has been for about a decade, she knows her stuff and she’s outspoken about things that matter. She’d be far better than most of the Greens’ incumbents – state or federal.

    The preselection mess is really sad. The Greens have a great bench in Darebin and not enough winnable seats to put them in. And so the nomination of Lidia Thorpe in Northcote – a brilliant candidate, but one who had never run before – understandably pissed off supporters of Trent McCarthy, who had done the hard yards and was locally very well known. Now, Thorpe was the better of the two very strong candidates – but that’s not a reflection on McCarthy, who also belongs in parliament. I don’t know what went on behind the scenes with Thorpe’s nomination, but I think it’s a shame that some of the locals seem to be blaming Bhathal rather than moving on with things. Personally I’d have rathered McCarthy go to the upper house over Samantha Ratnam, but oh well.

  20. Wow the green fairy Has gone COMPLETELY bonkers! the greens have about a snowballs chance in the Sun of winning “Nananananananananananana Batman” Thank Fuck 😀

  22. With the clear shift of inner city Melbourne seats to The Greens, what is the possibility of the Libs losing Higgins (Kelly O’Dwyer) in 2019?

  23. I mean, I only comment occasionally, but it seems to me the quality of PB right-wing trolling has really jumped off a cliff. The LNP will WIN Batman? Come on now.

    As for Higgins, I suspect if the Greens win Batman they will launch a strong attack on O’Dwyer. The Victorian state election later this year should give us a preview of how that’s going (do they hold Prahran? Make gains in Malvern/Kew/Caulfield?).

  25. People on left keep saying that the current LNP federal government is terrible in many ways & they want to get rid of it.
    You do not do that by voting for Greens
    You do not do that by voting for LNP.
    You do that by voting for ALP because ALP are the real opposition.
    You may say that I am stating the obvious.
    Some time you have to do that to get to you.
    You may say you are sending a message to ALP. But they are not in government.
    You may say Federal ALP supports Adani mine construction. But ALP Premier of QLD vettoed the federal government loan, without which I cannot see the project getting up.
    I think ALP should take the help of Paul Keating for Batman election like Albanese did for his 2016 election. One speech by Keating slapping down Greens made ALP supporters to think what they were about to do & in election Albanese increased his 2PP vote.

  26. The Liberal vote in Higgins is probably too high for the Greens to win in, except in the most disastrous election for the Liberals. The best the Greens could hope for in most of the inner-suburban seats of the died in the wool Liberal belt (Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein/the safe Liberal state seats in the area) is to be second, ahead of the ALP, with all the extra primary votes (useful in the Senate and especially the Legislative Council and gets public funding) and preferences that entails.

    After Batman, Wills and potentially Melbourne Ports (where they came relatively close to overtaking the ALP in 2016), Gellibrand would seem the most sensible seat for the Greens to target.

  27. There is going to be a major redistribution in Victoria, so all the talk about margins, target seats etc can be well off the mark.

  28. I predict Labor will win the Batman by-election. Because Labor support is strong of Bell Street and in 2016 Labor’s vote in Victoria was historically low.

  30. No one is talking about the Australian Conservatives.
    With no Liberal Party candidate it is quite possible that AC could get 20% but it is more realistic that they found get about 15% and they will preference ALP over AG it is most likely ALP will hold this seat.
    Other un-knowns are how many candidates will run.
    Reason Party???
    CDP, DLP, Socialist Alliance
    It will be very interesting to watch this play out.

  31. Alex Bhathal is brilliant – incredibly smart, compassionate and committed. But then so is Ged. If Alex was up against Feeney she’d have romped it home, but I suspect Ged will be enough for labor to get a swing back to it on primary votes. Feeney was a shocking performer at the last election and could well have cost Shorten government with all of the bad press he received. With the LNP not contesting, it might come down to the preferences of minor party and independents – if the Reason or Animal Justice Parties or a good independent runs their preferences could be crucial. One way or the other, Batman is going to have a great local member after this – a relief after the Feeney and Maarn Ferguson years. My heart says Bhathal, but my head says Kearney will probably get over the line here. I wonder if the libs will go soft on this, because if the greens win I think Shorten’s leadership will be in jeopardy – Mal knows that if Shorten was replaced (and I realise the Rudd rules make this hard – but does it make it impossible?), Labor would jump to >55% TPP and stay there. Mal might try to get the upset in the hope of labor in-fighting and getting a 50:50 or better poll result before the magic 30 negative polls in a row comes up., but it’d be a phyrric victory if Plibersek or another got the LOTO gig as a result.

  33. Given that the Liberal Democrats, who even have “liberal” in their name, managed 4% in Northcote, I wouldn’t be losing too much sleep over the Conservatives. Reason isn’t registered, so they’ll be a nonentity as well. I doubt the micros will play a serious role here.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *