There were two polls this week, one a little better for the Coalition than usual (52-48 from ReachTEL), one a little worse (54-46 from Essential Research). These add up to not much change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, albeit that the Coalition are up one on the seat aggregates for Victoria and Western Australia. No new numbers this week for the leadership ratings.
Latest developments on the ever-changing face of the Senate:
• South Australian Senator Lucy Gichuhi has subtly improved the government’s position in the Senate by joining the Liberal Party. Gichuhi was the second candidate on the Family First ticket at the 2016 election, which unexpectedly earned her a place in the Senate in April last year in place of Bob Day. The High Court had ruled that Day had been ineligible to run at the election by virtue of a pecuniary interest in an agreement with the Commonwealth, and that the votes should be recounted as if Day were absent from the ballot paper. However, this coincided with Family First’s absorption within Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives start-up, which Gichuhi was not willing to join. She has since sat as an independent, albeit one that has usually voted with the government. Her move to the Liberals neatly brings the South Australian Senate contingent into line with the party configuration that emerged from the election, a situation that was disturbed when Cory Bernardi quit the Liberal Party.
• Kristina Keneally will take Sam Dastyari’s place in the Senate after winning the decisive endorsement of the NSW Right without opposition, seeing off suggestions that she might face a challenge from Transport Workers Union state secretary Tony Sheldon or United Voice official Tara Moriarty. A report in the Sydney Morning Herald suggests Sheldon might have been able to take the position if he had pressed the issue, with the support of the Australian Workers Union, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and Transport Workers Union, but favoured seeking a position at the next election as it would give him a full six-year term.
Miscellaneous miscellany:
• Barrie Cassidy makes a case for a federal election being held later this year.
• The Australian reports that Michael Danby’s potential successors in Melbourne Ports include Josh Burns, a senior adviser to Daniel Andrews, and Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not the former state MP). However, it is not yet clear that Danby will retire, or be forced out if he chooses to stay, with a Labor source quoted in an earlier report from The Australian saying Danby had 80% support in local branches. Linfox executive Ari Suss and Labor historian Nick Dyrenfurth, who were mentioned earlier, have apparently ruled themselves out.
• Lyle Shelton, who gained a high profile as managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby during the same-sex marriage referendum, has resigned his position ahead of a run for federal parliament, which will apparently be with the Australian Conservatives in Queensland — presumably as its lead Senate candidate.
• According to Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser, Robert Simms, who held a Senate seat from September 2015 to July 2016, would “likely have the numbers” to take top spot on the Greens’ South Australian Senate ticket if he challenged Sarah Hanson-Young.
• The ABC reports a small sample YouGov Galaxy poll of 350 respondents suggested Nick Xenophon Team member Rebekha Sharkie would retain her seat of Mayo at a by-election if disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship. The poll had Sharkie with a 59-41 two-party lead over the Liberals, from primary votes of 37% for Sharkie, 33% for the Liberals and 18% for Labor.
• Fairfax reports a ReachTEL poll of 3312 respondents for the Stop Adani Alliance found 65.1% opposed to Adani’s coal mine proposal in Queensland, up from 51.9% in March 2017. It also found 73.5% support for ending the expansion of coal mining and accelerating solar power construction and storage.
yes Confessions that is what they (Newspoll) usually do. If parliament was resuming next week it would come out then, and if they were sitting last week, then it would have come out a week ago.
I hope PVO ‘Wow’ is 56-44 to Labor or 55-45 again.
Itza @ 4:39pm – nailed it perfectly.
ABC pool is my palace. The cafe was literally my office away from my real office when I was in private practice several years ago.
My weekend bliss is BONDI beach – at least when I can get away from my home in the Greek Pelopennese to go down there, which I do every couple of weeks when I patrol for NBSLSC every summer. I just love swimming out way past Ben Buckler and looking back at the cliffs all the way up to North Head of a morning, with the sun reflecting off the sandstone.
That said, we are truly blest with great beaches all around Australia. All those magical little coves on Rottnest island. Glenelg pier. Those amazing deserted gems south of Batemans Bay. Callala and Hymes. Gerrora. Shelly beach at Manly. Garie Beach in the National Park. The Harbour beaches. Newcastle! Boomerang and Blueys just south of Tiona on the mid north coast. Even main beach at Forster. I love far north NSW and even the Gold Coast and recently had a blast at Mooloolaba. 4 mile beach at Port Douglas – what a start to the day walking along there in June. My favourite ‘home away from home’ Beach would have to be Cylinder Beach in North Stradbroke Island. My sister owns a unit overlooking it and I just came back from a week with 3 generations of my family up there.
52 48 Alp
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (+1) ALP 52 (-1) #auspol
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (+2) ALP 37 (0) GRN 10 (0) ON 5 (-2) #auspol
Well done Gorks.
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 45 (+4) Shorten 31 (-3) #auspol
Movement from ON to the Libs, Labor unchanged primary.
Can see that continuing, ON had a dagger through its heart with the Qld election.
Ghost who votes; ON -2 LNP +2 ALP 0 giving 52 48 labor.
26
So why the wow from PVO,,,? Libs still behind.
Hardly worth a wow.
27. That’s the important number.
C@t:
How is the Karvelas show?
26 down 4 to go.Only ON shift which are only Lib protest voters anyway.Bye Bye Malcolm.
Sonar, any port in a storm for PVO
L/NP primary with a 3 in front of it will be bad for them when the main game starts
TPP ALP 52 (-1) L/NP 48 (+1)
Primary L/NP 38(+2) ALP 37(0) ON 5(-2) GRN 10(0) OTH 10(0)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-extends-lead-as-preferred-pm-as-coalition-hit-back-in-polls/news-story/72975538619bedb61b0b508371b34ab7 paywalled, google the URL
Malcolm Turnbull extends lead as preferred PM as Coalition hit back in polls
The Australian 9:34PM February 4, 2018
Simon Benson National Political Editor
Malcolm Turnbull has stretched his lead over Bill Shorten as the preferred Prime Minister as Parliament prepares to return for the first sitting week of the year and the Opposition leader stands accused of taking Labor further to the left.
The Coalition has also lifted its stocks following a two month break with a two-point jump in the primary vote to 38 per cent, as the two leaders shape up for a battle over cost of living, taxation and economic policy.
Recovering ground following a disastrous year, the Coalition now trails Labor 48/52 on a two party preferred vote. While only a single point rise since December, it is the best two party preferred vote the Coalition has recorded since April 2017.
Labor’s primary vote remained unchanged on 37 per cent.
Only movement away from one nation. No change to ALP/GRN primaries. A hill of beans. Ahaha
Anyway, it appears that the ‘African Gangs’ stuff sucked in a few bigots who previously voted for One Nation and put them back in the Coalition column.
*Golf clap* for Turnbull and Dutton.
the PPM movement will have Trumble thinking he’s a genius (which is the moron’s most common error)
The Christmas break is as good as it gets for a government usually. Now real life gets back in the way. These dickheads and Trumble in particular haven’t a clue about reality.
steve davis @ #602 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 6:31 pm
I’ll guess 56-44 to Labor, or 50-50. 55-45 to Labor has been “wowed” already.
As Steve Smith , our former foreign minister and one of the best electoral strategists the ALP has produced used to say “Labor’s primary vote needs a 4 in front of it to win”.
Nothing I have seen suggests Smith’s assessment has become untrue.
Its looking more and more like a Latham type lead… and we all know how that ended comrades.
Sonar – PvO, after people started to make fun of his Wows, started to do Wows randomely, sometimes where there was no movement. Then he stopped teasing the result altogether. This one seems like a Wow for old times sake, although it is better for the L/NP than anything since April.
What is the govt’s agenda for this year? They’ve not communicated anything that is tangible or even plausible. Just culture war shit.
NEWS
Malcolm Turnbull extends lead as preferred PM as Coalition hit back in polls
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has every reason to smile. Picture: AAP
Simon Benson
Malcolm Turnbull has stretched his lead over Bill Shorten as the preferred Prime Minister as Parliament prepares to return for the first sitting week of the year and the Opposition leader stands accused of taking Labor further to the left.
The Coalition has also lifted its stocks following a two month break with a two-point jump in the primary vote to 38 per cent, as the two leaders shape up for a battle over cost of living, taxation and economic policy.
Recovering ground following a disastrous year, the Coalition now trails Labor 48/52 on a two party preferred vote. While only a single point rise since December, it is the best two party preferred vote the Coalition has recorded since April 2017.
Labor’s primary vote remained unchanged on 37 per cent.
The Government will seek to capitalise on the results, as evidence that Mr Shorten was now on the back foot and the momentum had begun to swing its way. However, if an election were to be held at the weekend, the numbers show that the Government would still fall.
One Nation has continued its slide dropping a further two points to five per cent, returning a five point loss since November last year. Almost all the One Nation vote has returned to the Coalition which has lifted its primary vote four points since plummeting to a record low of 34 per cent in November. The Greens and other minor parties remain unchanged on 10 per cent apiece.
Benefiting from the traditional new-year bump that has tended to favour governments, as voters are spared from the daily media grind, the Prime Minister’s personal ratings have also lifted.
Mr Turnbull now leads Mr Shorten as preferred Prime Minister 45 to 31, the biggest lead since August last year. It reflects a four point rise for Mr Turnbull and a three point slide for the Opposition leader.
While Mr Shorten recorded a two point rise in his satisfaction rating to 34 per cent, Mr Turnbull enjoyed a five percentage point improvement in his performance ratings to 37 per cent which reflects the sharpest rise since the early days of his leadership
Confessions @ #615 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 9:44 pm
She was a bit too bumptious for my liking, trying to harass the answer she wanted out of Bill, looking for a gotcha on Adani, Unions, Leadershit and PHI. That’s probably because she still needs to get the Sky News/ News Ltd approach out of her system. Hopefully it will moderate with time.
Bill started out a bit shaky with what seemed like a prepared, scripted answer, but as the interview wore on he warmed to the occasion and came across better.
New thread.
Albo’s interview today makes more sense now…
Edwina StJohn @ #624 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 9:47 pm
Steve Smith a great electoral strategist?
Isn’t he the goose who preened himself as McGowan’s replacement in WA?
That worked well didn’t it?
No ESJ you are backing another loser. 😆
PvO seems to ‘Wow’ every Newspoll as it arrives. Like the rooster crowing at dawn.
But 52-48 – not bad, considering the crap about “African gangs”, the attempt to launch a culture war “Great Debate” on Australia Day, good vibes left over from the silly season, good economic news and tax cuts being boosted by the mainstream media, and Citizenshipgate biting Labor on the bum.
But Labor still needs to improve those numbers quick. 52-48 is too close for comfort. We don’t want a rerun of the 2001 political Year.