BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Little change this week on the federal polling aggregate. Also featured: preselection news, minor polling snippets, and the latest changes to the configuration of the Senate.

There were two polls this week, one a little better for the Coalition than usual (52-48 from ReachTEL), one a little worse (54-46 from Essential Research). These add up to not much change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, albeit that the Coalition are up one on the seat aggregates for Victoria and Western Australia. No new numbers this week for the leadership ratings.

Latest developments on the ever-changing face of the Senate:

• South Australian Senator Lucy Gichuhi has subtly improved the government’s position in the Senate by joining the Liberal Party. Gichuhi was the second candidate on the Family First ticket at the 2016 election, which unexpectedly earned her a place in the Senate in April last year in place of Bob Day. The High Court had ruled that Day had been ineligible to run at the election by virtue of a pecuniary interest in an agreement with the Commonwealth, and that the votes should be recounted as if Day were absent from the ballot paper. However, this coincided with Family First’s absorption within Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives start-up, which Gichuhi was not willing to join. She has since sat as an independent, albeit one that has usually voted with the government. Her move to the Liberals neatly brings the South Australian Senate contingent into line with the party configuration that emerged from the election, a situation that was disturbed when Cory Bernardi quit the Liberal Party.

• Kristina Keneally will take Sam Dastyari’s place in the Senate after winning the decisive endorsement of the NSW Right without opposition, seeing off suggestions that she might face a challenge from Transport Workers Union state secretary Tony Sheldon or United Voice official Tara Moriarty. A report in the Sydney Morning Herald suggests Sheldon might have been able to take the position if he had pressed the issue, with the support of the Australian Workers Union, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and Transport Workers Union, but favoured seeking a position at the next election as it would give him a full six-year term.

Miscellaneous miscellany:

• Barrie Cassidy makes a case for a federal election being held later this year.

• The Australian reports that Michael Danby’s potential successors in Melbourne Ports include Josh Burns, a senior adviser to Daniel Andrews, and Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not the former state MP). However, it is not yet clear that Danby will retire, or be forced out if he chooses to stay, with a Labor source quoted in an earlier report from The Australian saying Danby had 80% support in local branches. Linfox executive Ari Suss and Labor historian Nick Dyrenfurth, who were mentioned earlier, have apparently ruled themselves out.

• Lyle Shelton, who gained a high profile as managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby during the same-sex marriage referendum, has resigned his position ahead of a run for federal parliament, which will apparently be with the Australian Conservatives in Queensland — presumably as its lead Senate candidate.

• According to Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser, Robert Simms, who held a Senate seat from September 2015 to July 2016, would “likely have the numbers” to take top spot on the Greens’ South Australian Senate ticket if he challenged Sarah Hanson-Young.

• The ABC reports a small sample YouGov Galaxy poll of 350 respondents suggested Nick Xenophon Team member Rebekha Sharkie would retain her seat of Mayo at a by-election if disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship. The poll had Sharkie with a 59-41 two-party lead over the Liberals, from primary votes of 37% for Sharkie, 33% for the Liberals and 18% for Labor.

• Fairfax reports a ReachTEL poll of 3312 respondents for the Stop Adani Alliance found 65.1% opposed to Adani’s coal mine proposal in Queensland, up from 51.9% in March 2017. It also found 73.5% support for ending the expansion of coal mining and accelerating solar power construction and storage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 13
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  5. CTar

    I believe it had something to do with trade. In the pic, Cormann was standing proudly in a group, he was wearing a red sash. Funny that the tweet disappeared so fast.

  6. that_jodi: I’m offended by phone hacking, ultraphobia, denigrating the memory of 96 football fans and tax dodging billionaire newspaper owners claiming to be “men of the people”. Where do I sign up? #JFT96 #NeverBuyTheSun twitter.com/joncstone/stat…
    joncstone: The Sun has set up a ‘snowflake hotline’ where you can report people who are offended by silly things pic.twitter.com/cH0JMfzl17
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/959393778418282496

  7. Victoria, I don’t think the Private Health Insurance Rebate is the make or break point for whether a person takes out or continues PHI.

    The cost of the insurance, the gap amount, state you live in and public hospital waiting lists factor into most people’s calculations.

    People with chronic diseases sometimes stop PHI because they have no cover for the chronic condition.

    My mother worked in aged care and she impressed upon her children the importance of PHI to access better quality care, although in her case the private hospital care she received was worse than the care given in a regional public hospital on same weekend. Yes I had to visit 2 patients on same weekend.

  8. ratsak @ #98 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    Too busy enjoying a lovely mild Sydney morning on my balcony with some surfing the interwebs and listening to NEU! 75 (who to my shame I have only discovered this week) to bother wasting seconds of my life on Trumble. Having seen the lowlife in action over several decades of public life now I know I would not have been surprised by him nor enlightened by anything he said.

    #weatheronPB
    #krautrockonPB

    Very mellow Sunday morning 70s Kraut 70s. On the other hand, don’t spose you heard Morricone Youth at Carriageworks with a new live sound track for Mad Max (1), playing as a ‘silent’ movie. ?

  10. Joseph Scales‏ @JosephScales · 2h2 hours ago

    Paul Keating said last year that he & Hawke tried to find a way to make trickle down economics fair & he now recognises that there aren’t enough levers for Government to ever make it work fairly… #insiders

  11. Another huge cost to add to the mix is GP visits. Now I favour a practice that does not bulk bill and (once I had a little more financial security) was prepared to cop paying an extra $20 for quality service. When it went to $30 I gulped a bit and at $ reduced my usage. On Frifay I visited and was Shocked to pay $52 on top of the gov rebate.

    Sadly I will probably now go to a cheap as chips bulk biller for every minor illness and to the hospital for “emergencies” I may pay the extra for diagnostic services that require a higher level of skill.

    Doctor shopping is a terrible idea I know, but what choice do people really have.

  12. poroti @ #97 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 10:31 am

    ItzaDream

    There is a living wage campaign in NZ that seems to be gaining traction. We may see it implemented over there before long. That it has been a social movement rather than a political one probably helped their campaign. Takes out the “if that party is for it then I’m against it” problem.

    ………will join so many of her fellow councillors advocating and voting to ensure the capital city is the first accredited Living Wage Employer council in Aotearoa.

    This caps off a year in which we welcomed our first corporate, Vector, alongside hospitality businesses, Wiri Licensing Trust, Kai Pasifika and Rogue and Vagabond. We also advanced the Living Wage at other councils with Auckland and Christchurch raising the bottom up toward the current Living Wage. Now, with commitments to a Living Wage from all the parties in Government, the core public service is set to raise the bar for both directly employed and contracted workers. The Movement will have its first meeting with Government ministers to discuss implementation this month.

    http://www.livingwage.org.nz/

    Really interesting thanks. An apolitical donation funded group, which includes faith based like Catholic Peace and Justice Commission, determining a reality based living wage hourly rate, in NZ 2107 $4.45 / hr more than the Govt set basic wage, to which employers can sign up.

  13. DTT

    There is nothing wrong with Doctor shopping. The only time it is bad is when its for criminal purposes like getting ingredients to make illegal drugs.

    City people get more choice here. I agree that government needs to do more to reduce cost.
    Glad Labor not abandoning Medicare as the LNP want.

    The lesson for Labor is not to leave government with a freeze on bulk billing in place. LNP have used that to the max to undermine Medicare

  16. equal or not?

    Tks. That’s not the pic I found, but it gives more detail. Loved the final para… a teenage dream.

    Senator Cormann organised a special German-Australia conference in Perth last year, where he fulfilled a teenage dream of singing and dancing on stage to the 1980s hit song 99 Luftballons with German artist Nena.

  17. Just watched* Turnbull on ‘Insiders’.

    He spent all of it bagging Shorten because Shorten’s speech the other day at the NPC was about things Shorten wants to advance this year and things the he wanted to consider during the year.

    He was actually quite aggressive with Cassidy.

    You’d think he’d take the opportunity to set out some sort of picture of what the Coalition wanted to do this year but I guess in lieu of the RW nutters telling him what he’s going to have to do to stay PM this year (a day-to-day proposition for him) he’s got no choice other than to bang on about company tax cuts and trickle down bullsh#t and bag the Oppositions plans.

    Really pi## poor use of national broadcast time.

    * – I record and wait to see if posters on here are talking about bits of it as interesting before deciding if I’m going to watch some or none of it. Tks live watchers!

  18. Guytaur

    It was more about the continuity of care ie not so good for the patient. Mind you here can also be advantages in switching. Obviously it isridiculously expensive for people to go to the hospital for say bronchitis when a GP visit would be perfect, but if people do not have $50 bucks in their pocket that is not an option.

  20. DTT

    Yes pros and cons with both. However Dr shopping to keep bulk billing* is voting with your money. Its saving money for yourself and backing the public health system.

    Once you have bulk billing Dr you then stay to keep that continuity of care.

    Saves money for health system too as patients go to Dr instead of emergency department.

    *bulk billing no fee charged on top

  24. Oh dear.

    Tallcailín‏ @tallcailin · Feb 1

    Our dog Paddy brought our cat Felix into the house this evening and lovingly placed him in front of the fire. Yes, that was such a sweet thing to do…except for the fact that Felix was buried on Tuesday. Hence I am on the wine.

  27. Triplejay58: For those wondering exactly how many times Turnbull said Bill/Shorten (12) or Labor (15) during his interview on #insiders today. This does not include the many times he said “he/his/him/they” when referring to Shorten/Labor, or times he said eg “anti-labour”. Jftr. #auspol pic.twitter.com/mXqmt4sTTK

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am

    NeoLib-Lab types like briefly will no doubt bluster in defence of trickle down.

    You’ve reduced yourself to verballing other bludgers, RD. This is facile, as usual.

  30. C@t which one is that?
    By the number of Barkers’ Eggs appearing, it seems that dogs have also taken over the gap between North Avoca and Avoca

  31. Morning all.

    The Republicans are now just the party of rank opportunism and hypocrisy.

    Republican leaders’ open defiance last week of the FBI over the release of a hotly disputed memo revealed how the GOP, which has long positioned itself as the party of law and order, has become an adversary of federal law enforcement as it continues its quest to protect President Trump from the Russia investigation.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/once-the-party-of-law-and-order-republicans-are-now-challenging-it/2018/02/03/98ff3f3c-084f-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html?utm_term=.73cb6e693a8b

  32. OK Guytaur

    People here know I call a spade a spade not a large spoonlike digging implement.

    The reality is that MANY of the bulk billing doctors are pretty bloody awful. Often very new graduates, or new immigrants with average English and little confidence.They offer rapid quick service because that is how the practice makes its money.

    So it is OK to go to such GPs when you know what is wrong and want a specific prescription – chest infection, urinary tract, the pill, medical certificate, or repeat prescriptions for an ongoing chronic condition that you fully understand.

    But would you go to them for something more complex?

  33. “Bondi and Manly on the other hand would not pass for dog beaches on the west coast.”

    You want a beach? Hit Esperance in W.A. 🙂
    http://www.festivalofthewindesperance.org.au/sights/

    Once a few years ago went down there with a friend from Switzerland. Had small 4WD and the fastest way to get to Cape LeGrande was to drive along the beach from town. Sand so white sunnies mandatory, 30 to 50m wide and so hard packed it squeaks when you walk on it. Water blue and total clear as it gets deep very fast offshore into the Recherche archipelago. (Diving is deep but fantastic, vis 30-50m).

    She made me stop so she could get out and take photos. Reckoned no-one at home would believe her that a beach like that could exist and not be covered in people. Next day at Cape LeGrand asked her what she wanted to do for the day. Reply was that didn’t care what i wanted to do, she was hitting the beach. 🙂 Amazing how her attitude changed. A little while later someone in a Landie parked 100m down the beach we had had to ourselves and she was like…..hmmmm starting to get crowded. 🙂

    And then, there are places like 5 Fingers at Coral Bay in the north………

  34. Interesting that Cormann is Belgian although from Eupen, a Kingdom of Prussia town awarded to Belgium after WWI. The German community tends to be ignored by the feuding Flems and Walloons

  41. Grimace:

    Bondi and Manly on the other hand would not pass for dog beaches on the west coast.

    Surely you jest.

    We have been right around Australia, calling in at beaches whenever available, with three kids in tow.

    Their vote, and mine, was that WA’s beaches are pathetic in comparison to anything on the east coast of NSW from Wollongong north.

    Qld’s beaches are ok up to maybe Townsville, but that’s it.

  42. Confessions

    I know it is a waste of my time even suggesting you read outside the box, but I posted a very balanced article this morning. You should read it.

    It is about much, much more that whether you like Trump or Clinton.

  44. briefly @ #128 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 10:08 am

    NeoLib-Lab types like briefly will no doubt bluster in defence of trickle down.

    You’ve reduced yourself to verballing other bludgers, RD. This is facile, as usual.

    Trickle down economics is your thing, briefly. Don’t be shy to admit it now !

  45. Confessions says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 11:45 am
    I still reckon the south coast of WA has the best beaches. And they are vastly unpopulated, unlike most of the east coast.

    They’re very beautiful…and often very dangerous too.

  48. Rossmcg
    Pyne and Bernardi were as bad as that before Cory left to start his own party.

    On the doctor-shopping, while it’s not always true the bulk-billing doc will probably give a lesser service but not always. That’s because they are under pressure from the group they work for to churn through a certain number of patients to make up for the reduced revenue.
    Think of it like your wife going to the hairdresser; she goes to the top-notch one who costs plenty to get a new style and then goes to a lesser one to keep it neat and maintained.

  49. Hopefully thousands of potential tourists will read Don’s advice about how crap WA beaches are and stay away so we can enjoy them in relative peace.

  50. Garry KasparovVerified account@Kasparov63
    9h9 hours ago
    Genuinely curious. How do Trump’s defenders explain why this entirely self-interested man defers so consistently to Putin, and only Putin? He’s had every opportunity to refute this loyalty, which predates his election.

    Anyone? I’m curious also.

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