BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Little change this week on the federal polling aggregate. Also featured: preselection news, minor polling snippets, and the latest changes to the configuration of the Senate.

There were two polls this week, one a little better for the Coalition than usual (52-48 from ReachTEL), one a little worse (54-46 from Essential Research). These add up to not much change on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, albeit that the Coalition are up one on the seat aggregates for Victoria and Western Australia. No new numbers this week for the leadership ratings.

Latest developments on the ever-changing face of the Senate:

• South Australian Senator Lucy Gichuhi has subtly improved the government’s position in the Senate by joining the Liberal Party. Gichuhi was the second candidate on the Family First ticket at the 2016 election, which unexpectedly earned her a place in the Senate in April last year in place of Bob Day. The High Court had ruled that Day had been ineligible to run at the election by virtue of a pecuniary interest in an agreement with the Commonwealth, and that the votes should be recounted as if Day were absent from the ballot paper. However, this coincided with Family First’s absorption within Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives start-up, which Gichuhi was not willing to join. She has since sat as an independent, albeit one that has usually voted with the government. Her move to the Liberals neatly brings the South Australian Senate contingent into line with the party configuration that emerged from the election, a situation that was disturbed when Cory Bernardi quit the Liberal Party.

• Kristina Keneally will take Sam Dastyari’s place in the Senate after winning the decisive endorsement of the NSW Right without opposition, seeing off suggestions that she might face a challenge from Transport Workers Union state secretary Tony Sheldon or United Voice official Tara Moriarty. A report in the Sydney Morning Herald suggests Sheldon might have been able to take the position if he had pressed the issue, with the support of the Australian Workers Union, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association and Transport Workers Union, but favoured seeking a position at the next election as it would give him a full six-year term.

Miscellaneous miscellany:

Barrie Cassidy makes a case for a federal election being held later this year.

The Australian reports that Michael Danby’s potential successors in Melbourne Ports include Josh Burns, a senior adviser to Daniel Andrews, and Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not the former state MP). However, it is not yet clear that Danby will retire, or be forced out if he chooses to stay, with a Labor source quoted in an earlier report from The Australian saying Danby had 80% support in local branches. Linfox executive Ari Suss and Labor historian Nick Dyrenfurth, who were mentioned earlier, have apparently ruled themselves out.

• Lyle Shelton, who gained a high profile as managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby during the same-sex marriage referendum, has resigned his position ahead of a run for federal parliament, which will apparently be with the Australian Conservatives in Queensland — presumably as its lead Senate candidate.

• According to Sheradyn Holderhead of The Advertiser, Robert Simms, who held a Senate seat from September 2015 to July 2016, would “likely have the numbers” to take top spot on the Greens’ South Australian Senate ticket if he challenged Sarah Hanson-Young.

• The ABC reports a small sample YouGov Galaxy poll of 350 respondents suggested Nick Xenophon Team member Rebekha Sharkie would retain her seat of Mayo at a by-election if disqualified on grounds of dual British citizenship. The poll had Sharkie with a 59-41 two-party lead over the Liberals, from primary votes of 37% for Sharkie, 33% for the Liberals and 18% for Labor.

Fairfax reports a ReachTEL poll of 3312 respondents for the Stop Adani Alliance found 65.1% opposed to Adani’s coal mine proposal in Queensland, up from 51.9% in March 2017. It also found 73.5% support for ending the expansion of coal mining and accelerating solar power construction and storage.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

632 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 13
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  1. It’s a very good thing that an agency with investigative and prosecutorial powers is inquiring into he activities of the notorious criminal, Donald Trump.

  2. hamonryen: If you step into an inner-Sydney laneway and find an ibis eating prawn heads from a garbage bag it means six more weeks of summer

  3. guytaur @ #166 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:18 pm

    At least 50,000 homes in SA will be given solar panels and batteries in a scheme by Elon Musk’s Tesla to build the world’s largest virtual power plant, slashing household power bills in the process.

    Under the scheme unveiled by the SA Government, solar systems and batteries will be supplied and installed free of charge.

    The cost of the project will be financed through the sale of electricity, generated by the panels, in what Premier Jay Weatherill said would be the largest project of its kind.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-04/elon-musk-tesla-to-give-solar-panels-batteries-to-sa-homes/9394352

    Interesting, but the numbers in this article simply don’t add up. This cannot be paid for just from the sale of electricity alone – not unless you assume some hefty subsidies or a ridiculously high electricity price.

    I think we need some more detail.

  4. briefly @ #198 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 12:49 pm

    pritu says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 12:40 pm
    Re. Bulk billing doctors. A great many of them are actually not wedded to their tills and do an excellent job.

    Absolutely correct. dtt, as usual, is simply revealing their snobbery. Socialised medicine is beneath them.

    That is a falsehood. A complete misrepresentation.

  5. P1

    Agree regarding more detail needed. However even if is a subsidy that works too as its first target is Housing Trust people. Those that can’t afford to install their own. Good to see a government step up and eliminate a major cost for those low income people.

  6. Calling the FBI “a bastion of rectitude” is a grotesque insult given the FBI’s long history of abusing its power over citizens.

    It is stupid to claim that opposing Trump requires ahistorical whitewashing of the FBI’s many abuses of power.

  7. Nicholas

    True. As the memo points out. However nothing in that same memo backs Trump’s claims of vindication.

    In fact the memo does the opposite despite what Fox is telling Trump.

  8. imacca

    I see people kitted up in dark grey wet suits and think what more could they do to make themselves look like a seal? It’s no wonder that even a not very hungry shark would have a casual go at them on the chance they get a feed without expending much energy.

  9. That solar panels and battery idea in SA sounds good at first blush but there’s something that needs to be kept in mind. If you are on income support that is means tested then the feed in tariff is considered income by centrelink unless something has changed. These people may well be grateful if their power bills go down. But if they lose some of their welfare payments as a result I wonder how they’ll feel?

  10. Aqua

    Even if they gain revenue they will still not have the cost of the electricity bill. Thats a win. So gain more than loss.

  11. Guytaur I’m thinking perception more than reality. If you’re income goes down I don’t think a lower bill is going to win out unless there’s a massive gap. Look at how easily Abbott was able to convince people they were worse off under the cabon price when in reality they were more than adequately compensated.

  12. Aqualung
    I think the deal means that they get free power, but the excess is used by the power company. That’s how the systems are funded.
    A great deal for the poor, but still better to fund your own system and trade the power yourself if you can afford the upfront capital.

  13. I don’t care how nice the beach looks in a photo. If the water is cold or you can’t swim for other reasons, I’m not going.

  14. I hope the SA govt installs solar panels and batteries in the homes of those poor souls stuck on the Cashless Welfare Card in Ceduna.

    If there’s any that haven’t moved to Pt Lincoln..

  15. It doesn’t matter what Hannity and Fox and the crazy Trumpinstas bleat about. All this is doing is proving that Trump and his cronies are not even disguising the fact that they are furiously trying to discredit all and sundry. And of course, not a word against Putin. You gotta wonder what Putin has over this mob.

  16. On the repeal of the carbon price. I remember the breathless announcement from EA proudly stating I was receiving a combined gas/electricity
    refund of $9! That was almost a full quarter. $9 for almost 12 weeks. Abbott should be taken out the back of Parliament house and be fiddled with by one of his priestly mates and then strung up after for that gross deceit.

  17. I think its good for Elon Musk to make this gesture to SA.At least he knows that the Labor party there are progressive.People like solar. Turnbull will be shown to be on the wrong side of the ledger in years to come.He is a dinosaur just like the rest of his party.

  18. If there’s no bill at all G & TS then great. But don’t put it past these bastards in Canberra to come up with a form of deeming. My blood boils at what a$%eholes are currently running the joint.

  19. P1

    I think we need some more detail.

    I think you need to get your head screwed on. Of course the initial install is being subsidised. Thats what the RET and the SA government injections are for.
    If you gave a flying fu k about the environment you should rejoice in the project.
    Although I suppose we could further subsidise gas….

  20. Aqua

    You can only use the deeming thing on assets. An electricity bill is a cost. So no deeming can be applied if there is no cost.

    Any revenue raised could indeed be subjected to the deeming measure. However that is only once it becomes a revenue asset.

  21. I learnt to swim a Killarney Beach in SW Vic, it was great, as long as you are not sooky about cold water….. Lately I have been favoring the Barwon Heads Estuary, in the shade under the bridge, very sea-like, you’d hardly know you were in a river, given the influence of the ocean, it’s lovely.

  22. Vic:

    That may be so, but this is what the Nunes memo enables Trump to state, however loose with the truth it may be:

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    2h2 hours ago
    “The four page memo released Friday reports the disturbing fact about how the FBI and FISA appear to have been used to influence the 2016 election and its aftermath….The FBI failed to inform the FISA court that the Clinton campaign had funded the dossier….the FBI became….

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    2h2 hours ago
    …a tool of anti-Trump political actors. This is unacceptable in a democracy and ought to alarm anyone who wants the FBI to be a nonpartisan enforcer of the law….The FBI wasn’t straight with Congress, as it hid most of these facts from investigators.” Wall Street Journal

    I also find it amusing that many of the people he’s criticised in this imbroglio have been people appointed by his own administration!

  23. A good bulk billing doctor is a very valuable resource. It would be really hard to get in to them if it’s urgent as they are so booked up. And most GPs work in big practices owned by healthcare companies and they put lots of pressure on to perform industrialised medicine. Conveyor belt medicine is actively encouraged in public hospitals as it’s very efficient and reduces waiting lists.

  24. Just dropped out for a while to go to the local Bunnings and was listening to ABC RN. Very interesting story ‘The Sailors Walk’ about some shipwrecked sailors who walked from 90 mile beach to Port Jackson up the East Coast – a distance of 700Km – in 1797. No mean feat.

    They had generally positive interactions with the Aborigines they met and were assisted by them.

  25. Trog Sorrenson @ #225 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    P1

    I think we need some more detail.

    I think you need to get your head screwed on. Of course the initial install is being subsidised. Thats what the RET and the SA government injections are for.
    If you gave a flying fu k about the environment you should rejoice in the project.
    Although I suppose we could further subsidise gas….

    Don’t be absurd, Trog. Do the maths. The householders will not end up with “free power”, as you seem to think. According to the article the system is “free”, so the only way this can work is if the user still pays for their power whether or not it is provided by the system installed in their house or by the grid.

    The only person likely to make any money out of this deal is Elon Musk.

  26. steve davis

    I think its good for Elon Musk to make this gesture to SA.At least he knows that the Labor party there are progressive.

    Good for corporate pamphlets and a bit of advertising as well showing that your products can be made to be a good sized chunk of their power system and fairly easily done if you can do it with a govt that’s forward looking.

  27. Malcolm Turnbull: We will put downward pressure on electricity prices.

    Jay Weatherill: We will eliminate electricity bills for 50 000 people.

  28. Lol!

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    1h1 hour ago
    Life comes at you fast.

    Last night: “I don’t believe that somebody like Mr. Page should be a target of the FBI.” Comrade Nunes

    “Over the past half year, I have had the privilege to serve as an informal advisor to the staff of the Kremlin.” Comrade Page, 2013

  29. Oh dear!

    Confessions quoting Frum. she will be singing the praises of Cheney and Dubya next.

    In case you have not grasped this yet, the Republicans are very heavily split on and many hate Trump with a passion – especially the Neocons.So to quote Frum is really really ,really misplaced.

    However there are several obvious things about the Nunes memo that can be understood by even the most partisan Democrat – if they have a brain.

    First of all there was absolutely nothing that breached security. Not a jot, not a whisper,not a comma. So anyone who says otherwise is just not a reliable commentator or has not read it.

    Second it indicates that a series of senior bods signed documents submitted to FISA (the court) seeking warrants to spy on a Trump campaign volunteer. Trouble is they did not advise the judge that the information on which it was based came from a source paid for by the opponents campaign team, had publicly indicated personal loathing for Trump. This was a pretty serious breach of good conduct and one might expect each of those caught out in this to be disciplined, either for laziness, deliberate bias or stupidity. Comey, McCabe and Yates all sighed these papers at some point. They have all gone.

    Rosenstein also signed them. This should probably have been sufficient for him to step away from the Mueller inquiry as did Sessions. The fact that he did not does NOT speak highly of his ethics or wisdom. Now there are allegations (on very biased media) that Rosenstein threatened Nunes with subpoenas and surveillance. If so (and it is a very,very big IF), Rosenstein will do jail time. As usual it is always the attempted cover up that does the real damage.

    The fact that the informant and was probably also an agent or ex agent of a foreign power may or may not have been disclosed to the judge.

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