BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 44
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  1. monica @ #389 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Oh dear, kay jay,
    Just saw your latest post.

    O.K., this is going to sound drastic, but it’s probably the only way to get any handle on it. Here in Vic. we have a tribunal that can take control of a person’s finances if it can be demonstrated they are acting in way/s that are detrimental to their own best interests. I’m not sure what the equivalent organisation may be in the ACT, but if you would like me to find out, I’ll do so.

    If it is determined, she’s harming herself and her future financial security, they can take over payment of essential bills and provide an amount to cover food and agreed upon expenses such as her excursions. There are also some lawyers who specialise in this.

    Drastic, I know, but I can’t think of any other leverage.

    This is the course of action that I like to think I would take. However, the nephew, when I mention such a course, tends to go off on the run away to WA and work in the mines rant.

    Canberra has legal aid which, I believe could point him (perhaps together with my cousin) in the appropriate direction. She (the sister-in-law) blows thousands of dollars on “stuff” and complains of the electricity prices.
    There may be a lawyer/s in Canberra who could take whatever action is required and the legal aid people must know of them.

    Bemused I agree such a serious problem needs serious attention and the sooner the better.

    monica just today during a two hour conversation I tried to explain to my nephew that he should be a focus of help in the first instance. I have gently asked him to talk to his GP about this and seeking assistance.

    Thank you all very much for your kind attention.

  4. Franken gone. Justifiably so, of course. His behaviour has been disgusting.

    Having exposed Burke, Spicer is now investigating Australian politicians.

    Expect allegations against politicians from both sides in 2018.

    There are two who have already had allegations inuendoe’d or made public: Shorten and Joyce. My view is that Shorten has had due process in relation to allegations against him and that his matter will be aired again (what is one more smear amongst many) but will go no further. Joyce has had snide innuendo but has had no redress at all.

    Expect more allegations.

    I trust that, when the allegations are aired, Labor is ready to do the right thing in terms of respecting women and its supporters.

  5. mh
    It does not hurt to remind ourselves from time to time that Greens Party will never form government, despite sincerely held pretensions to the contrary.

  8. Carry we on we will (was that Yoda :?:)

    You rang? 🙂

    (Please excuse me Kay Jay, just trying to lighten your load a little bit 🙂 )

  10. Kay Jay
    My heart goes out to you. You have and are doing your best in a very difficult situation. I hope you have something interesting to take your mind off the situation. Good night to you.

  11. C@tmomma (AnonBlock)
    Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:27 pm
    Comment #409

    For me the picture was just like looking in a mirror.

    Kisses ❤❤❤❤

  12. Why Trioli? At least Jones is smart enough and tough enough to cause a modicum of holding people to account.
    Trioli will give Turnbull a soap job.

  13. Forty years ago, I knew women who bought clothes every week, took them home and never wore them at all.

    ‘Millennials’ are not very different from any other generation – there are always spendthrifts and there are always economisers.

    You can, of course, go too far in the other direction- I was constantly complaining to my mother in law (no one else in the family dared) about lumpy pillows and polyester sheets (the latter complaint after I had found it was actually more comfortable to sleep on the woollen blanket…), to be met with ‘but those came over in the container from England” (in 1972).

    When she died, a packet of tapioca was found in the pantry. It had also come over in the container…

  17. ajm
    I had thought that all the troglodytes were analogues.
    Were I the LNP, and somewhat desirous of gaining power in three years, I would choose Ms Freckington.

  18. Kayjay
    Hoarding is a complex condition that needs help from a number of professionals, including a psychologist. If she is aging she may be eligible for an Aged Care package for home help. Some of the agencies, Centacare, Uniting Care, etc may have specialist hoarding-condition programs. Her house may be a fire hazard, so the local council may be able to help.

    If she is elderly, making gains on the hoarding might be difficult. The best those around her might be able to do is not focus on the hoarding, which they can’t much help with, and focus on helping the other parts of her life be happier. Making visits that are not about her house, etc etc.

    These are sad stories, and they are more frequent than people realise.

  19. Roger Miller @ #403 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:20 pm

    Kay Jay
    In the ACT the people to contact would probably be these guys.
    https://www.ptg.act.gov.au/resources/community-service-obligations
    I think they will also have an aged care assessment team to advise on what help is available.

    Thanks for that. Aged care assessment people were to contact my S in Law today although I suspect that she may have outplayed them and gone out. Extremely difficult.

    Good night again. 💤💤 I hope.

  23. Forty years ago, I knew women who bought clothes every week, took them home and never wore them at all.

    Me too. I still do, but now they come from Op Shops, and if I don’t wear them again, no great loss, they only cost me $1 per item. However, back in the day, I once bought a purple suede skirt suit with enormous padded ‘power shoulders’ for $500. Which, in the early 1980s, was a shed load of money! Jewellery Bishop-level extravagant. I wore it a few times, the fashion moved on, and it ended up going to the back of the wardrobe.

    I tell you, it’s a really hard habit to break. And it can be traced back to my grandfather taking me to David Jones every Saturday so that I could buy a new dress. No questions asked, no expense spared!

    I was spoilt rotten.

  25. Upon reflection, I should admit that my mother was a hoarder of sorts – but probably not in the compulsive sense.

    She was a kid in the depression where she endured poverty and want, and a young teenager in Holland during the second world war where deprivation of every kind was normal, and where around 50,000 people starved to death.

    The Depression and the War and the immediate post war years in a smashed economy formed the first fifteen years of her conscious, remembered life.

    The resultant patterns of behaviour included a commitment to frugality, not wasting stuff, to darning socks, not throwing away clothes until they could no longer be mended, hoarding scraps, unravelling jumpers and re-knitting new ones using the recycled yarn, and stocking the larder in readiness for the next depression or the net war. She bottled fruit. We never threw food away. Ever. She belonged to another generation of (largely) women. She made all our clothes and made Dad a suit as well. In her own way she was a accidental but dedicated environmentalist.

    She was also a hoarder but, IMO, and given her formative years, a rational hoarder.

  27. PuffyTMD @ #418 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 7:37 pm

    Kayjay
    Hoarding is a complex condition that needs help from a number of professionals, including a psychologist. If she is aging she may be eligible for an Aged Care package for home help. Some of the agencies, Centacare, Uniting Care, etc may have specialist hoarding-condition programs. Her house may be a fire hazard, so the local council may be able to help.

    If she is elderly, making gains on the hoarding might be difficult. The best those around her might be able to do is not focus on the hoarding, which they can’t much help with, and focus on helping the other parts of her life be happier. Making visits that are not about her house, etc etc.

    These are sad stories, and they are more frequent than people realise.

    My sister-in-law is a couple of years younger than I – 76 years she, 78 me.

    Her son (my nephew) and his son (autistic and very talented) could no longer stay in the family home because there was nowhere for them in the clutter and squalor, rotted vegetables, bundled clothes and magazines and assorted other treasures.
    Sister in law drives to another house (owned by S in L and occupies by her son) and has dinner (tea) with them, often taking beaucoup food (nephew describes it as every type of cheese known to man or goat) that is not needed and then returns home.
    We would like other ladies of a nurturing nature to visit her and that may take place. Whether such visitors would return after a viewing remains to be seen.

    💤💤💤

  29. Boerwar
    Your’re quite right that your mother would not be considered a hoarder in a diagnosable sense.
    Kay Jay’s relative is, in my diagnosis at remove. Very sad.

  31. I had a F in L who was extremely obsessive about any form of waste, particularly food.
    Quite understandable after I learned that during his time in a German POW camp he had been in charge of rationing and trying to hoard food to be used in escapes. He had been in the crew of a Halifax bomber shot down over Germany.

    As if that wasn’t enough, he and his fellow prisoners were later marched hundreds of km ahead of the advancing Russians, in the coldest winter for decades, with only whatever shelter they could find and very little food.

    After learning all that, his obsessions no longer annoyed me.

  32. Boerwar, you are too harsh regarding Franken.

    He has made the transformation from crude comedian to very able and conscientious senator admirably. He took his job as a legislator very seriously and did great things.

    Writing him off for an indiscretion he committed years ago make those that do so no better than the bigots they rail against so piously.

    If a man or woman can’t redeem their doubtful pasts by good works in the present and the contrition that is appropriate to the ‘crime’ then there’s no hope for any of us regular sinners.

  35. monica,
    No new news this week from the Bennelong battlefront. Only a week to go, and I absolutely expect, now that parliament has risen, that every high profile MP from both sides of politics will be press-ganged into the service of KK and JA.

  36. Well
    I’m quite cheered by Bludgertrack I’ve got to say, and by Labor’s victory in Q’L’D..
    That Rex Douglas is miserable, is just icing on the cake.

  39. Bushfire Bill

    Boerwar, you are too harsh regarding Franken.
    He has made the transformation from crude comedian to very able and conscientious senator admirably. He took his job as a legislator very seriously and did great things.

    Agree with this.
    Franken’s behavior was pretty boorish, but nowhere near Trump or Moore’s level.
    Unfortunately, the Dems had no choice but to get him to resign. A political necessity. Now they can freely turn all their guns on the Grand Old Perverts.

  43. BB
    I think I can understand what you are saying and why you are saying it.
    There IS a balance to things, much good against bad.
    But it was not a single indiscretion.
    I am also open to a discussion about the ‘years ago’. Again, on the one hand, I get it. There is a point to moving on.
    But, as I have had direct experience of in relation to abuse in a Marist Brothers boarding school, I can tell you that the years do not necessarily erode the consequences for the victims. The shit stays with you, festers and rots many lives. One of my classmates suicided a year or so after leaving school. Compared to his classmates his life was shortened by fifty years. Those years are the passage of time as well.
    If the people Franken had sexually harrassed and/or assaulted had been even remotely his peers in terms of power, and/or if they had had equal power to sexually harrass HIM and get away with it, I might just be a very little bit tempted to agree with you.
    But they were not.
    He was immeasurably more powerful than they were.

  45. Rex Douglas @ #442 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 8:11 pm

    bemused @ #437 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 8:07 pm

    monica @ #436 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 8:06 pm

    Well
    I’m quite cheered by Bludgertrack I’ve got to say, and by Labor’s victory in Q’L’D..
    That Rex Douglas is miserable, is just icing on the cake.

    Sadist!
    But I like it. 😛

    don’t hoard your dislike of me bemused – let it go man ! 🙂

    No Rex, nothing personal.
    But your various psychopathies do concern me.

  49. BW, I don’t think Franken was that bad.

    From what I read he acted obnoxiously a few to rs, many years ago, and has by now redeemed himself.

    If you applied the “Marist Brothers” test to everything and everyone we’d all of us be on a one lane highway to Hell.

    None of us knows how we’d react to the many situations Franken must have encountered. Maybe we wouldn’t be so pure about his behaviour if wd’d been offered the same temptations and opportunities for mischief as Franken experienced.

    I’m no saint and not at all religious, but I can appreciate Christ’s invitation to forgive repentant sinners, lest we end up having to judge ourselves just as harshly.

  50. Kayjay,
    On thinking further on this, and I may be wrong mind you, it is the nephew who has reached out to you for support. You cannot help with the hoarding problem but your nephew sounds like he is doing some of the care for this lady. There are resources to help him be the helper. I stress he does not need to be getting any carer payments from Centrelink to qualify.

    One is Commonwealth Respite Care. This is to replace the things he does so he gets a break, housework, transporting, etc or could even be a short stay for the lady in respite care.
    He needs support and may even benefit from seeing a counsellor who can assist him with dealing with the stresses of helping a hoarder. His doctor may be able to help. Hoarding has negative effects on those trying to help, because it is so bloody frustrating. He does not have to be full time caring, just helping out like he does.
    Ok links, and he cares for a person with mental health and ageing conditions.
    http://www.carersact.org.au/how-can-we-help/programs/crcc/ info on gov’t respite.
    http://www.carersact.org.au/ register here as a carer for respite and carer programs, they often have programs for men. He may be able to get in touch with other male carers.
    Hoarding
    http://www.catholichealthcare.com.au/en/in-homecommunity/hoarding-and-squalor/
    https://www.australianageingagenda.com.au/2016/07/07/advice-encounter-hoarding/ which also mentions animal hoarding. It is a good article.

    I hope your nephew understand that he is dealing with a severe mental health problem, not a hoarding problem. She might be helped by medication and therapy to quote the article above.

    This is a program to meet other carers and to learn how to connect positively with the person with the mental health issues.

    Now this is a lot to put onto your nephew at once, so maybe a bit at a time. Focus on him getting help so he can get help for his relative, in a positive way?

    I hope some of this is helpful and gives you something to work on.
    *Big Squishy Hug* if I may?
    Puffy.

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