BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. You know, I thought The Greens did a big gloat after their Northcote win, but they are minnows to the whale of a gloat that Turnbull is affording himself after Marriage Equality passed the parliament yesterday.

    He’s got a hide.

    As thick as a rhino.

  2. vic,
    Remember who pompously proffered that the thought of anal sex could either sink, or run very close, the postal plebithingy SSM vote?

  3. c@t

    I have disliked Turnbull immensely since utegate. Even with Abbott being dear leader, didn’t make me appreciate Turnbull. With each passing day, my feelings continue to be validated. He is insufferable

  4. C@t

    Turnbull’s many enemies will not like the gloating.

    And remember the rhino is a very endangered species. Its thick hide affords no protection

  5. It is alright for the rest of you. We were visited by pillars of fire and showers of brimstone last night.

    Plus the earth opened up under Parliament House and it was swallowed into the pits of hell.

  6. Last night on 730 Turnbull had the opportunity to be a statesman and say, when asked, Yes, Leigh, this legislation is gratifying but it isn’t about me. It was about the whole parliament responding to the voice of the people.

    But he didn’t. He, like any Liberal Party narcissist he tried to ‘steal’ the accolades for himself. It was an appalling display.

  7. Anyway, battle now to be engaged in the New Year over whether Religions deserve ‘Freedoms’ others are not privy to in the law.

    You know, like the ‘freedom’ to oppress and discriminate against others.

    I, for one, will go to the barricades just as hard against their legislated ‘Right’ to do so, just as hard as I did to enable Marriage Equality in this country. As the battle for ME may have been won, but it is of a piece with the war on Australian secular society and the rearguard action that the Christian Soldiers in our parliament and our society, and countries overseas, are raging, and will continue to rage, with all their might, on behalf of their Almighty.

  8. Turnbull’s many enemies will not like the gloating.

    Indeed. I said yesterday I reckon it mightily pissed off Andrews, Abetz and their ilk with his boast that he was proud SSM was legislated by a Liberal National govt!

  9. Good morning all,

    I hope Turnbull continues to gloat and boast for some time yet.

    He is coming across as a complete prat claiming credit for the passing of the ME legislation. Let him go.

    Out of the claws of victory Turnbull will always grab defeat.

    Compare his approach to that of labor. Shorten, Tanya P. Also etc etc etc have all stated that it is not about the politicians but it is all about the hundreds, thousands of SSM advocates who have fought for many many years and it is all about the gay community as a whole. It is their victory.

    Compare that to Turnbull. Let him rant. He is doing himself harm.

    Cheers.

  10. ‘fess,
    And the Christian soldiers in the Coalition will plot over the break from parliament how to bring Turnbull back to earth.

  11. PhoenixRed

    If you are about, Tea Pain has been proferring this view over past few days

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    7h
    Let’s refresh our memories on how deep this nuclear whistleblower scandal goes. This is the story Flynn’s gonna tell. This is the story that will take ’em all down.

    Mike Flynn’s Promotion of Nuclear-Plant Project Went Deep Into the White House
    wsj.com

  12. Anyway, we all here on PB know, that Turnbull’s efforts to hog the limelight wrt ME, are singularly all about breaking the Newspoll losing streak.

  13. Oops and this

    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    17h
    Mark this down. Trump & Putin planned to profit from 16 nuclear power plants in the Middle East. The U.S. taxpayer would pay for our military to secure the sites. Billions upon billions of laundered money.

    This will make all previous scandals look like a parkin’ ticket.
    805
    15.2K
    28.7K

  14. For those who are interested, ME is a page 14 in The West Australian though there is an opinion piece on page 10 telling us “PM’s bad year ending well”.

    At least it is conceded he had a bad year.

    Major story here is a fatal street brawl and the reaming former Anglican archbishop Roger Herfy has copped from the Royal Commission over his “wilful blindness” to child abuse while bishop of Newcastle in the 90s and early 2000s.

  15. Is there really any chance any campaign for religious freedoms will make headway, unless the rights conferred are so uncontroversial as to be harmless to secular society? I would have thought we have seen a repudiation of the moral majority argument this year

  16. I suspect that what will destroy Malcolm’s leadership (within his party) is not so much the polls but his absolute lack of leadership. He’s pissing off everyone, on the right and the left, as he flaps from one side to the other. It’s hard to believe that anyone in his party has any respect for him.

  17. antonbruckner11 @8:26AM He just looks like a dick.

    The Emperor may look like a dick, but he’s claiming a huge triumph and the mainstream media are dutifully reporting it as such without question. The child who cries out “but The Emperor looks like a dick!” isn’t being reported.

    When I woke just before 7:00 this morning, I switched on Radio National and Fran Kelly said something like “and later, I have Malcolm Turnbull on to talk about his triump”. I switched her off.

  18. triton @ #49 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 8:38 am

    Re: The zoomster v. bemused match yesterday, which I have just replayed after missing it live.
    It promised a lot at the start but unfortunately blew out to a one-sided contest with zoomster winning by an innings and a couple of hundred runs. A disappointing spectacle.

    Bemused no longer has his heart in it.

  19. victoria says: Friday, December 8, 2017 at 8:56 am

    PhoenixRed

    If you are about, Tea Pain has been proferring this view over past few days

    Tea Pain @TeaPainUSA

    Let’s refresh our memories on how deep this nuclear whistleblower scandal goes. This is the story Flynn’s gonna tell. This is the story that will take ’em all down.

    Mike Flynn’s Promotion of Nuclear-Plant Project Went Deep Into the White House
    wsj.com

    ****************************************

    There seems to be a message that Flynn and his testimony is the key to all this – and like you say, he may take them in the Trump Crime Syndicate down

    Good Article in the NY Mag outlining a list of Flynn’s ‘crimes’ – it is a LONG list

    Every Shady, Possibly Illegal Thing Michael Flynn Has Been Accused Of :

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/every-shady-thing-michael-flynn-has-been-accused-of.html

  20. I wonder whether voters will have already forgotten SSM by next week’s Newspoll. It’d be hilarious if his timing was a week out and the bounce doesn’t occur.

  21. PhoenixRed

    A lot of the reporting over time re the Trump Imbroglio focused on lifting sanctions, which is of course part of the picture. But obviously not the whole picture, and it never was.

  22. STEVE777 – I think you’re over-estimating the power of the mainstream media. Voters take huge cues from how politicians behave, and Malcolm behaves like a nasty dick. End-of.

  23. I found it interesting watching Turnbull after the vote was finalised and the celebrations began on the floor.

    He didn’t seem to demonstrate much joy or enthusiasm.

    Maybe he’s not a good clapper.

    The hug with Tim Wilson looked very awkward.

    Then he went back to his seat and started going through his papers and spoke to the Clerk about something.

    He then moved back for some more unenthusiastic clapping but didn’t really engage or approach those around him.

    It was to me a huge difference from the emotive hubris of his words at the end of the debate.

    Anyone else notice and think this?

  24. Apparently they’ve wheeled out Howard in Bennelong. He did such a great job spruiking the case against marriage equality!

  25. jenauthor,
    I’m not so sure. Mr Bowe has commented on the lag effect on polling results before. So, and as the electorate appears willing to give the Coalition a tick for any little thing they achieve, I am expecting a bounce. Back down to Tony Abbott #Winning territory, I think.

    Sadly, Labor, like the LGBTQI community, have to work 10 times as hard, for their recognition.

  26. Apparently they’ve wheeled out Howard in Bennelong. He did such a great job spruiking the case against marriage equality!

    Because he sooo went out on a high with a big win in 2007, eh? 🙂

  27. BiGD,
    I noticed it too. The actions of a Barrister who has just won his case. A polite hug for the client. Then on to the next case.

  28. This ABC article reproduces the ATO’s long list of companies that paid zero tax or minimal tax in 2015-16. There are some big names with big revenues here.

    It all makes a mockery of Turnbull/Morrison bleating about the need to reduce company tax rates.

    As the article says: “What about the companies that do pay tax? Chances are they’re not paying as much as you”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-08/your-tax-rate-is-probably-higher-than-every-company/9238452

  29. BW @8:51AM: “It is alright for the rest of you. We were visited by pillars of fire and showers of brimstone last night.

    Plus the earth opened up under Parliament House and it was swallowed into the pits of hell.”

    Oh dear, didn’t hear about that, but I haven’t had the radio or TV on. Sydney is enjoying a fine, warm morning with early cloud breaking up and the sky firmly in place.

    But the weather forecast looks a bit of a worry: https://youtu.be/ICE6l-5qTYE

    P.S. The Google home page has a rainbow flag.

  30. On the Banking RC.

    When is the Government going to announce additional Commissioners?

    The scope of the RC is huge, and as we today getting bigger, and the time frame is limited.

    A single Commissioner will barely be able to scratch the surface of many of the issues raised.

    It has the potential to become a farce unless the Government gives it the tools.

    Of course that, sadly, may be the Governments intent!

  31. I found those advertisements from the coalition for marriage the most frustrating and anger inducing stuff.
    Every time I saw one I got angry and cursed at Turnbull and Co for going down the path of doing a survey. And I wasn’t the only one pissed off with these ads. Mind you I didn’t watch that much tv, but they seemed to be on high rotation.

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