BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

  1. Love this from Van Badham in response to the question about Australia’s values etc.

    Van Badham
    1h
    Australian values can be boiled down to a unifying national dislike of anyone who is clearly up themselves.
    And it’s for this reason, Malcolm, you are finished.
    #qanda

  2. Talking to my friends in the party in NSW, they aren’t throwing the resources into Bennelong purely to make it close and give JA/Trumble a fright, they think they can absolutely win.

  3. A Lib PV of 39% suggests JA will attract about 35-36,000 primaries. This is a long way short of Howard’s result in 2007 (39,551 – 45.5%), when he roughly level-pegged McKew (39,408 – 45.3%) and lost 48.6/51.4. This would easily be the worst result for the Liberals in this century. If JA can only get to 35-36,000, he’s stuffed unless the Cories and CDP flow better than 4:1 against KK.

    When the swing is on in the PV, the prefs can be expected to follow the swing. The Right-splits will likely cost the Libs a safe seat.

    Excellent.

  4. It would be fascinating to know how the Chinese and Indian communities – and their neighbours, friends & co-workers – have reacted to the Libs’ ON-waltzing and China-baiting.

    The magnitude of the shift suggested by Newspoll – if it is real – suggests the response has been very pronounced.

  5. steve davis says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 11:42 pm
    Briefly,
    It will be a great result if your figures above turn out in reality on Saturday.

    It will be a sensation. And it will prove once again that the CPG have not got the foggiest idea about political processes in Australia.

  6. Fess

    That was not Turnbull’s worst moment.

    It was a train wreck and may have gained Labor votes in Bennelong. I don’t see him as winning any from that episode

    🙂

  7. On those primaries 50/50 is flattering to the Libs. Interested in Williams thoughts.

    The Liberals got 81% of CDP preferences in Bennelong in 2016. My guess is that they have applied this to the CDP and Australian Conservatives vote, which indeed gets you to 50-50.

  8. It’s possible – nay, it’s almost a certainty – that the LNP have just got things totally wrong when it comes to campaigning. They have deflected attention away from JA and the importance of stability in the Parliament and Government. This is their best argument.

    But they have not made it. Instead they’ve been throwing mud at someone who is not a candidate and whipping up some old-time Sino-phobia. The problem for the Libs is that they have form when it comes to racist political pitches. Howard had form and it played against him. The Liberals have recent form of their own, playing it close and sweet with ON in WA and QLD. This is treacherous ground for the Libs. The absolute failure of the Libs to take effective measures against the exploitation of Indian workers will also register with voters.

  9. Bill Shorten is pushing to end the damaging controversy surrounding embattled Sam Dastyari within days.
    (Headline in the OZ).Doesnt seem to have done too much ‘damage’ so far.

  10. William Bowe says:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 at 12:06 am
    On those primaries 50/50 is flattering to the Libs. Interested in Williams thoughts.
    The Liberals got 81% of CDP preferences in Bennelong in 2016. My guess is that they have applied this to the CDP and Australian Conservatives vote, which indeed gets you to 50-50.

    Interesting place, Bennelong. Andrew Wilkie did very well there in 2004. The CDP and the Gs also have done well. The vote shuffles around. It’s not set in stone. The voters seem to want to use their vote to make a point.

  11. Assuming the polling is reasonably accurate, win or lose the L/NP have a much worse problem to confront: how to counter the effectiveness of Labor/Union/GetUp! field campaigning.

    Win or lose in Bennelong, they’ve demonstrated they can haul in a 10 point margin to break even. Of even greater concern to the L/NP, the more experience the progressive side of politics has with field campaigning, the more effective it becomes and they have no hope of being able to replicate a large scale field campaign anytime soon.

  12. Briefly

    I bow to your superior knowlege of campaigning but it would seem to me the Tories don’t know how to run a positive campaign.

    From the start it was KK is a crook and it seems to have gone downhill from there to her being in league with people smugglers and friends with agents of Beijing.

    The likes of Morrison can’t appear in public without looking for a head to kick.

    As you say, talk about what a good man JA is might be a starting point.

  13. For the record, I’ll repost the Bennelong By-Election Sweep predictions:

    Poll Bludger Sweep
    Bennellong By-Election

    Name Labor Liberal
    2016 Election 40.28 59.72
    Newspoll (11/12/17) 50 50

    Name Labor Liberal
    Ophuph Hucksake 46.20 53.80
    davidwh 47.00 53.00
    Steve777 47.00 53.00
    Ides of March 47.28 52.72 (comment was 6% – 8%)
    Work To Rule 47.50 52.50
    calumniousfox 47.59 52.41
    Aqualung 47.70 52.30
    The Silver Bodgie 47.70 52.30
    steve davis 48.00 52.00
    It’s Time 48.00 52.00
    Ante Meridan 48.10 51.90
    Kevjonno 48.50 51.50
    Rex Douglas 48.25 51.75
    John Reidy 48.50 51.50
    Confessions 48.80 51.20
    Asha Leu 49.00 51.00
    Lord Haw Haw of Arabia 49.00 51.00
    Clem Attlee 49.80 50.20
    a r 49.99 50.01

    Name Labor Liberal
    Boerwar 50.00001 49.99999
    BK 50.0002 49.9998
    Sonar 50.01 49.99
    Question 50.01 49.99
    Poroti 50.08 49.12
    TallebudgeraLurker 50.25 49.75
    PuffyTMD 50.25 49.75
    Taz 50.28 49.72
    don 50.30 49.70
    Chinda63 50.40 49.60
    imacca 50.50 49.50
    Whisper 50.60 49.40
    Socrates 50.75 49.25
    Norwester 50.80 49.20
    Paddy O 50.88 49.12
    C@tmomma 51.00 49.00
    Outside Left 51.00 49.00
    Sohar 51.00 49.00
    Dan Gulberry 51.50 48.50
    D-money 51.50 48.50
    monica 51.50 48.50
    Barney in Go Dau 51.60 48.40
    Gecko 51.60 48.40
    Vogon Poet 51.75 48.25
    laughtong 52.00 48.00
    Desert Qlder 52.00 48.00
    Roger Bottomley 52.00 48.00
    Rossmore 52.20 47.80
    Shiftaling 52.30 47.70
    Tom 52.40 47.60
    Sprocket 52.50 47.50
    Adrian 52.70 47.30
    Borris 53.00 47.00
    Grimace 53.28 46.72
    rhwomat 53.50 47.50
    Roger Miller 54.00 46.00
    Fluvio Sammut 58.00 42.00

  14. catmomma and taxes/GDP

    aust needs to raise taxes, abolish school fees and medical insurance – watch economy grow as those indirect taxes are gone and public has more to spend – the free marketeers are weighing economy down with (subsidised) private taxes disguised as consumerism

  15. rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 at 12:27 am
    Briefly

    I bow to your superior knowlege of campaigning but it would seem to me the Tories don’t know how to run a positive campaign.

    They are just hopeless. Their negativity repels voters almost instantly. I doubt that most voters really even try to take in the sense of the Lib lines. They shut down as soon as they hear the whinging kick off. They basically campaign against themselves.

  16. grimace says:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 at 12:25 am
    Assuming the polling is reasonably accurate, win or lose the L/NP have a much worse problem to confront: how to counter the effectiveness of Labor/Union/GetUp! field campaigning.

    Win or lose in Bennelong, they’ve demonstrated they can haul in a 10 point margin to break even. Of even greater concern to the L/NP, the more experience the progressive side of politics has with field campaigning, the more effective it becomes and they have no hope of being able to replicate a large scale field campaign anytime soon.

    Spot on, g. The activist bases run to many tens of thousands. The LNP are skeletal by comparison.

  17. g, I have yet to post a prediction in the sweep, excusing myself by saying that it would all depend on the campaign.

    On the numbers used by Newspoll, the strength of KK’s effort and the errors the Libs have made, I think it’s looking like 51.3/48.7 for KK.

  18. Just watching Qanda on ABC. Went to the beach halfway through the ABC 24 run.

    Whoaaa……..This is a real train-wreck for Truffles. Arrogant prat thinks he is in a court or something??

    He is really showing some serious disrespect for the questioners. The “you are just wRONg and believe me i’m right..because i am..” he went with for with the NBN q was appallingly badly handled.

    Hasn’t anyone told him not to do that thing with the hands??

  19. Oh, there’s been a Newspoll.

    50 – 50 2PP!

    It seems there’s little to be gained,and a lot to lose, in insulting a Chinese person, humiliating him in public and causing him and his Nation to feel they have lost face. Especially if you are relying on him to vote for you in a crucial bye election.

    Moronic, but that’s Turnbull, the Libs and the CPG for you.

    However you will now watch the words Sam Dastyari and China disappear from the MSM faster than Edward St John disappeared from here after the Newspoll result was announced.

    I still miss Tabitha though ….

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