BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. AL

    Turnbull mansplaing the Uluru statement was a GST birthday cake moment.

    He then claimed no torture of refugees on Manus.

    Then called Royal Commissions political reports

  4. imacca

    And if they win the seat by whatever margin Truffles will be even more beholden to the Uber Tuber , what with all the “Dastardly Dastyari” stuff and all

  7. The primaries are interesting in Bennelong, say 80% of the Greens gives ALP 47, and how many of the RWNJ splinters of 9 think like 2GB, Bolt and the TurdBurgler that Malcolm is a progressive sheep in wolf’s clothing?

    Plus the badmouthing of Chinese all week….

    Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong Primary Votes: LIB 39 (-11.4 since election) ALP 39 (+10.5) GRN 9 (-0.1) CON 7 (+7) CDP 2 (-4.4) #auspol

  12. Thats a great poll result, it even being close is a major embarrassment to Turnbull and the Government.

    That its so close, can only help motivate people to ‘send him a message’, wonder how much pre-poll has been done ?

  13. Well that’s a WOW!!! Now, is it asking too much to hope for some preference leakage from Australian Conservatives? After all, if you read various pages where rightists tend to flock, they want Turnbull gone more than anything; well, what better chance to make it happen! Either way, this will be interesting!

  14. I posted @ 1.43pm that the LP is in trouble in Bennelong.
    Tonights Q&A exposed the smug elitist that is Turnbull. The polls have been very consistent for a long time and no amount of ‘get Sam’ will turn the tide in favour of the LP.
    Someone tell the Libs there is no outrage re Sam however there is outrage about a continuation of falling taxation receipts from corporations, the continued development of the use of fossil fuels, medicare dismantling, lack of transport planning, the working poor and crowded schools.
    Bennelong is set to expose Turnbull and the Libs as ‘bete noire’ of choice. No wonder Alexander has been looking despondent!

  15. Denise Shrivell‏
    @deniseshrivell

    Today Turnbull did a live podcast with Miranda Devine & the conservatives didn’t like him. Tonight he’s on #qanda where the progressives don’t like him. Begs the question – who does like our PM?

  19. Asha Leu @ #2089 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 10:43 pm

    #Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 50 (-9.7 since election) ALP 50 (+9.7)

    Ooh. Very nice.

    Just a seat poll, of course, so should be taken with a large helping of salt, but still… very nice.

    I’m suddenly feeling rather less pessimistic.

    The seat polls that are useless are those with a very small sample.
    If this poll has a good sized sample, it will be accurate within the margin of error which is determined by the sample size.
    Where things go really awry is when anyone attempts to predict individual seats from a national survey. The sample in any one seat is way too small.

  27. Cat

    Trioli was good. Asked tough questions and made sure questioners got heard.

    Turnbull as a result showed his arrogance to the nation tonight. Lecturing the audience on how they were wrong.

  30. Seat polls are crap because it’s very difficult to accurately get a sample just from the seat in question, not just the sample size.

  32. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, December 11, 2017 at 10:56 pm
    The primaries are interesting in Bennelong, say 80% of the Greens gives ALP 47, and how many of the RWNJ splinters of 9 think like 2GB, Bolt and the TurdBurgler that Malcolm is a progressive sheep in wolf’s clothing?

    Plus the badmouthing of Chinese all week….

    Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong Primary Votes: LIB 39 (-11.4 since election) ALP 39 (+10.5) GRN 9 (-0.1) CON 7 (+7) CDP 2 (-4.4) #auspol

    If the Lib PV comes in at 39%, JA is toast.

  34. Using the raw Bennelong preferences for the last election my envelope gives me Labor 51.3%.

    Labor got 55.9% of preferences.

  35. It’s going to be very hot on the ground in Bennelong on Saturday. 32 Celsius predicted for Sydney. I’m glad I’m only doing a half day of handing out HTVs.

  41. Cat

    QandA was a great show tonight if you are a progressive voter.

    One question asked. What is more important? Yout legacy or keeping your right wing backbench happy?

  42. The problem with seat x seat polling is that it’s difficult to get a sufficiently large and randomised sample from a population of around 100,000.

    Newspoll have a colossal database, so may be able to randomise their samples by the use of weightings and other moderating techniques, in which case this estimate may be reliable.

    If it is, JA is history.

    What it also suggests is that campaigning works. If there are 4% of voters who are still undecided, Labor will know who they are and will be pitching to them non-stop.

  44. Malky outright lying about SA power yet again. I would have thought the prick would have learnt his lesson. Now touting the never-to- be-built Snowy 2.o.

  47. One important factor will be turnout.

    By-elections normally have lower turnouts than general elections so if it’s close who has mobilised their vote the most could become significant.

    One would suggest that KK is likely to more successful on that count.

  48. One question asked. What is more important? Yout legacy or keeping your right wing backbench happy?

    How did Turnbull answer that?

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