BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Nicholas @ #2047 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 10:09 pm

    What have you done? You’re an armchair expert with a dictionary stuck up your arse.

    Sam is 34 and has heaps of potential.

    There is a direct and obvious social benefit from what I do in my professional life. Sam D? Not so much. His focus has been almost entirely on his own advancement, not the advancement of society. He is a dead-weight to his colleagues, some of whom have actually done things that are socially useful, unlike him.

    You have a ‘professional life’?
    And here I was thinking you were a 14 yo schoolboy with a lot of growing up to do.

  6. Nicholas @ #2047 Monday, December 11th, 2017 – 9:09 pm

    There is a direct and obvious social benefit from what I do in my professional life. Sam D? Not so much. His focus has been almost entirely on his own advancement, not the advancement of society. He is a dead-weight to his colleagues

    I’m pretty sure your criteria make virtually all career politicians dead-weight. I don’t necessarily disagree, except with the part where you imply that status is unique or semi-unique to Dastyari.

  7. C@t, those old programs were actually quite efficiently written, having to fit on such a small amount of storage. ESJ typifies bloaty modern cookie cutter wastefulness.

  9. Nicholas. Thank you for posting. I have different views from yours on many issues but I welcome your thoughtful contributions and the fact that you don’t descend into the childish name calling that sometimes afflicts this forum.

  10. Zeh says:

    C@t, those old programs were actually quite efficiently written, having to fit on such a small amount of storage.

    Yonks back I read an article which dealt with how Russkiy programs were so efficient for that very reason where as US ones had no worries with bloatware .

  11. Trufiles is showing great political skill (Bullshit ability) but no humanity.

    On Uluru statement he completely misses the point.

    I am not enjoying this performance.

  12. GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    19s
    #Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 50 (-9.7 since election) ALP 50 (+9.7) #auspol

  16. Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong Primary Votes: LIB 39 (-11.4 since election) ALP 39 (+10.5) GRN 9 (-0.1) CON 7 (+7) CDP 2 (-4.4) #auspol

  23. Oakeshott Country,
    I guess that the question is C@t which NSW Secretary General’s career didn’t end as I listed?

    Well, that’s the problem with your list. You have defined the rubric. A very low bar with quite a wide circumference so you can use it as a catch-all.

    Now, despite your broad terms of reference, and let’s see those who are without sin, in life in general, cast the first stone,eh? But I don’t remember Geoff Cahill being caught up in any dramas. Nor was Matt Thistlethwaite, as was said previously, and I dare you to say a bad word about Kaila Murnain.

    I also don’t remember any of the NSW ALP general secretaries being jailed for embezzlement of party monies, to the tune of $1.5 Million, like one of the recent Liberal Party federal directors.

    As a purported Labor man, I would expect you to be at least fair and balanced about the sort of brush you are tarring Labor general secretaries with.

  24. C@tmomma, thanks for your help. I think I’ll be ok now, especially since I now know this is still WordPress.

    And thanks everyone else too.

  26. Wow seconded. If the poll is correct at 50 -50.

    Imagine what will happen between now and the election date if the word gets out that Alexander confirms that he is not going to stand for re-election at the next election.

    (Has that comment been confirmed as yet?)

  28. sonar,
    But the Libs have got the dog whistle around the wrong way and it’s actually playing the wrong tune to the Bennelong electorate!

  29. So that’s it?

    The NBN is fantastic, world’s best practice, and everybody loves it. Sure there are a couple of problems,but nothing to do with Turnbull.

    Anyway, Labor’s NBN will always cost more than Malcolm’s.

    So there!

  31. jeffemu,
    Imagine what will happen between now and the election date if the word gets out that Alexander confirms that he is not going to stand for re-election at the next election.

    (Has that comment been confirmed as yet?)

    James Massola on Twitter said that Gareth Hutchens asked JA today about that and he said the rumour of his retirement at the next full federal election isn’t true.

    Who to believe?

  40. #Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 50 (-9.7 since election) ALP 50 (+9.7)

    Ooh. Very nice.

    Just a seat poll, of course, so should be taken with a large helping of salt, but still… very nice.

    I’m suddenly feeling rather less pessimistic.

  43. Geoff Cahill was famously picked up at the airport after a flight from London and driven to Sussex St where Bruver Ducker told him he was sacked and replaced by Richardson
    It could be argued that this was the moment that institutionalised corruption was introduced into NSW ALP
    Maybe Murnain will be the moment it ends
    My underlying attitude is that all politics is inherently corrupting and occurs in all parties but ESJs specific question was on the fate of NSW secretary generals, which is not an inspiring story.

  45. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account
    @TheKouk

    Turnbull – wow. Showing what a cranky prick everyone who has worked with him says he is #qanda

    heh heh. 🙂

  47. “#Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 50 (-9.7 since election) ALP 50 (+9.7) #auspol”

    Oh dear poor Twuffles. 🙂 If they lose Bennelong he is burnt toast. If they win Bennelong by a small margin then he’s damp and soggy toast.

  48. Switched off Q&A halfway through. Had about my full of listening to Malcolm’s spin, and he had stopped being quite as entertainingly hostile towards the audience and Trioli as he was at the start. Did I miss anything of worth?

  50. Newspoll Seat of #Bennelong Primary Votes: LIB 39 (-11.4 since election) ALP 39 (+10.5) GRN 9 (-0.1) CON 7 (+7) CDP 2 (-4.4) #auspol

    Who is the CON in this polling?

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