BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

Last week’s poll aggregate spike to Labor washes out after some better results for the Coalition.

First up, note that there are new posts below this one the near-finalisation of the Queensland election result, and the Tasmanian state poll from EMRS.

With three new polls added this week, the latest reading of BludgerTrack suggests last week’s surge to Labor to have been an aberration. However, the seat tally has wigged out this week, with both Ipsos and Essential recording particularly bad results for the Coalition from highly sensitive Queensland, and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five – maybe the Queensland result reflects the impact of the state election, but I think you can take it for granted that the Liberal gain in Western Australia will wash out over the coming weeks.

Newspoll and Ipsos both produced new data on leadership ratings, but the trend measures here haven’t changed much. A further footnote from the Ipsos poll: the respondent-allocated two-party preferred result was 52-48, compared with a headline figure of 53-47, which is the best result the Coalition has had from anyone other than YouGov for a while.

As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,194 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. and Ipsos producing a profoundly off-trend 57-43 lead to the Coalition in Western Australia. These results respectively cause Labor to gain four seats, and lose five

    Why bother including it then?

  2. @Dan: Because every trend starts with an outlier. Subsequent polls will determine if this is an outlier, or the early sign of something seriously wrong for WA Labor.

  3. Finding Malky’s perkiness insufferable.
    No TV/Radio for Mundo for 48 hours until it all dies down.
    Can’t understand why his ‘Labor did nothing about SSM in 6 years’ goes unchallenged. How did you and your party vote in 2012 Malcolm? You know, when Labor tried to do something about it.

  4. Al Franken Takes Down Donald Trump And Roy Moore As He Resigns From The Senate

    Franken said, “Today, I am announcing that in the coming weeks, I will be resigning as a member of the United States Senate. I of all people am aware that there is some irony in the fact that I am leaving while a man who has bragged on tape about his history of sexual assault sits in the Oval Office, and a man who has repeatedly preyed on young girls campaigns for the Senate with the full support of his party.”

  5. Finding Malky’s perkiness insufferable.

    And overnight and this morning, the ABC reporting how ‘pumped’ he is at his success.

  6. ‘Hello, grand jury subpoena’: Ex-Justice official says Don Jr’s ‘privilege’ claims are clearly ‘incriminating’

    A former Justice Department spokesman said Donald Trump Jr. was certain to face a grand jury subpoena after refusing to answer questions about his father from congressional investigators.

    The president’s son testified for hours Wednesday before the House Intelligence Committee, but he invoked attorney-client privilege to avoid answering questions about conversations with his father.

    “Don Jr. couldn’t have given Mueller a clearer signal that the answer is incriminating,” Miller tweeted. “Hello, grand jury subpoena.”

  7. Morning all. Happy rainbow day? Thanks for the aggregate William. Between Dastyari and Feeney, it would be surprising if Labor’s numbers had not dropped a little.

    This Guardian article highlights why Labor must be seen to oppose Adani. Apart from the tiny job potential, they paid no tax in Australia on $700 million revenue!

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    John Hewson calls out the Nats for all the trouble their undisciplined actions have caused. He piles into their hypocrisy also.
    Sean Nicholls says that NSW is rolling in money but the stadiums proposal but the problem with the policy is that it screams two things, profligacy and arrogance, each of which is poison for any government.
    Michelle Grattan says that Shorten is facing a summer of uncertainty.
    Katharine Murphy says that parliament voted yes and casts a permanent shadow over Abbott’s legacy.
    A victory lap from Alex Greenwich.
    Al Franken has resigned from the Senate and points to the obvious irony.
    “The usual culprits are at play. Zero tax on $2.9 billion in revenue from Rupert Murdoch’s News Australia Holdings, not a zack from Wall Street’s cuff-linked freebooters Goldman Sachs for the third year on the trot, same deal for brewing giant SAB Miller and a slew of other foreign multinationals”, says Michael West.
    Felicity Caldwell writes that three out of the four politicians to vote “no” in the marriage equality bill were from Queensland.
    Waleed Aly takes a potshot at Labor’s gloating over citizenship.
    David Crowe writes that the government has been slapped with a rebuke from Andrew Robb over the targeting of ‘covert’ agents who work for foreign ¬powers. Google.
    The SMH editorial examines the motives behind Trump’s decision to move the US embassy into Jerusalem.
    Mark Kenny refers to the under-estimated influence that Shorten had on the eventual passage of marriage equality into our laws.
    Michael Koziol revisits some of the memorable words uttered during the long SSM fight.
    A nice article from Tony Wright on the moment SSM became legal.
    With seven days until the royal commission into institutional responses into child sexual abuse delivers its final report and recommendations to the governor general, survivors and their advocates have called on the government to reveal if and when the report will be made public.
    Nationals MPs are pushing for Malcolm Turnbull to expand his cabinet to 22 people after Nationals backbencher Bridget McKenzie was promoted to the junior Coalition party’s deputy leadership on Thursday.
    Richo says that this week Malcolm Turnbull showed more partisanship than Bronwyn Bishop’s worst days as Speaker. In his desperation to gain a lift in the polls, our Prime Minister continues to undermine parliamentary standards. Google.
    Hamas is urging Palestinians to abandon peace efforts and launch an uprising against Israel in response to Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as its capital.
    Yet another mass shooting in a US school.
    George Brandis has upped the ante and referred Dastyari to the Privileges Committee.
    Classified and sensitive information is designed to be secret, so when it is made public it is always for a political purpose, writes Monash University’s Melanie Brand.,11006
    Fairfax Media understands the mid-year update, one of the key events on the government’s economic calendar, is likely to be released on December 18 and lay out a path back to surplus while also allowing the Coalition to toy with income tax cuts next year.
    The whole world will be watching as Rod Sims takes on the tech giants.
    A High Court decision placing on onus on unions to abide by all orders from the industrial umpire if they want to use strikes as a bargaining tool has sparked fresh debate about laws governing industrial action.
    A far-right activist who staged a mock beheading in protest at plans to build a mosque has had a court order taken out against him by his former employer who accuse him of trying to damage their brand. Cop that!
    Westpac is readying itself to explain its royal commission backflip to the AGM today.
    Senators have released a damning report on banks’ treatment of rural businesses, alleging their uncompromising approach to lending is driving some farmers to consider suicide.
    The royal commission into the banking and financial services sector will be expanded to include mortgage brokers and pay-day lenders as part of the largest investigation into the financial system in Australian history. Good!
    Meanwhile Alzheimer’s “sufferer” Archbishop Philip Wilson had another day in court yesterday. Google,.
    Has the first step been taken towards replacing the Holden name with Chevrolet in Australia? They’ve gotta be joking! Maybe “Shitbox” would be better.
    The tax commissioner has issued a passionate call to arms to Australians to stop paying tradespeople in cash. Google.
    The Turnbull government has appointed a man perceived as a longtime anti-charity campaigner as the head of the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission.
    Public Service Commission boss John Lloyd has defended a controversial social media guidance for APS employees, acknowledging the document could be used during disciplinary proceedings despite not being a formal employment policy.
    Qantas pilots are up in arms over the airline’s plans to fly Australian aircraft with lower-paid pilots employed by a subsidiary in New Zealand.
    People die without getting adequate psychiatric help, and it turns out even killing someone else isn’t enough to qualify for care. The system is failing says this Victorian GP.
    Bitcoin is in decline. Not its price, which has increased 900 per cent this year and (at the time of writing) stands at over US$12,000 per unit, but its actual use as a currency. And this makes its rapid appreciation all the more puzzling.
    The Australian presenting junk science is nothing new, but why is the ABC repeating its false claim that koalas are not at risk without allowing acknowledged experts the right of reply?,11008

    Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox on Trump’s middle east policy.

    John Shakespeare gives Gladys a kick.

    Andrew Dyson on Labor’s own citizenship problems.

    Simon Letch and parliamentary hypocrisy.

    Mark David on the celebrations in parliament house yesterday.

    Nice work from David Pope here.

    Go over here to see David Pope’s previous cartoons on SSM.
    Peter Broleman and the leaving behind of old thinking.

    Paul Zanetti on Labor’s citizenship process.

    Another prolific effort from Matt Golding!

    Sean Leahy and the laughable Tim Nicholls.

    David Rowe and a wedding ceremony.

    Jon Kudelka with a Christmas reminder for Abbott.

  9. So we have Essential finally extending a long trend against the government, Newspoll showing a significant correction towards the current government and Ipsos showing a drastic reversal for WA Labor.

    The latter is significant enough to be suggestive of a possible protest against public service cuts and maybe Barry Urban. Unwise to be completely dismissive of it IMO given the size of the shift. It seems counter-intuitive to me, but then again I am very biased.

  10. So gratified to hear that the marriage equality vote has give Trumble a ‘confidence boost’.

    Because marriage equality is all about Trumble of course.

  11. Edwina,
    Start learning Mandarin (Cantonese and Hokkien are optional). It will be compulsory, very soon, for all Liberal stormtroopers.
    …. Blame it on the “business cycle”… 🙂

  12. BK

    Great selection of cartoons today, but you seemed to have missed the Daily TurdBurgler effort. It illustrates what the Murdoch organs in all formats are shrieking about:

    1. Sam Dastyari
    2. Bill Shorten

  13. Kenny

    Bill Shorten’s role is under-appreciated here. When he pledged to legislate marriage equality immediately if elected, the calculus changed. Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Turnbull’s conservative Praetorian Guard, concluded a promised plebiscite at the next election would not cut it.

  14. Tingle and Co doing their last great turd-polishing before the knock off for christmas. The front page of the AFR is hysterical. Basically: Business admits people don’t trust it, so the Government should stop bashing it. It is definitely Australia’s funniest publication.

  15. Good luck and happy times to the SSM crowd. I voted Yes, as did Her Indoors and many others I know.

    A few didn’t, including one who told me seriously that “the Muslims” wanted it so that they could more easily practice polygamy and introduce Sharia Law. I pointed out to her that some of the biggest No voting areas were Sydney’s Muslim enclaves, but she had an answer for that: the whole poll was rigged anyway. It must have been because it was all Labor’s idea in the first place. I was a guest in her house, so I left it at that and just shrugged my shoulders.

    No-one’s had the heart to tell her that her adored son, proudly serving in the RAAF, is gay, either. I wonder why.

    Whatever… now that it’s all over can we get back to more important issues?

  16. Has the first step been taken towards replacing the Holden name with Chevrolet in Australia? They’ve gotta be joking! Maybe “Shitbox” would be better.

    It’s been happening unofficially for some time in certain quarters, hence:

  17. BB

    Marriage equality is an important issue. Especially for those who wanted to get married and were unable to due to the laws in place.
    It also goes to the core of what it is to be part of our current society, and it’s values, and that we are indeed progressing. Not a small thing. Now that it is done and dusted, it won’t take long for it to be “meh” and for people to wonder what all the fuss was about. As it should be.

  18. At another point on the surreal end of the scale, Bob Katter raved about the word gay. Gay people, Bob felt, had a damned hide taking that wonderful word off straight people and making it their own. Not content with that creeping acquisition, now the gays were absconding with marriage.

    The visitors’ galleries laughed at the old man in the chamber. Once the rainbow families would have crouched, defensively, at that kind of onslaught, at that kind of visceral public rejection.

    Now, it was safe to laugh, because the old man in the chamber, and the history of shaming he represented, was about to be routed.

    …Turnbull, who told very us often he and Lucy were voting yes, was an infrequent visitor during the amendments phase of the debate; a Delphic presence, a cheshire cat grin, more felt than seen.

  19. Thanks BK. I agree Shorten handled the SSM issue much better than his Labor predecessors or any Liberal leader. It is a real shame that the lack of ethics by Dastyari and competence by Feeney has distracted people at the moment of victory. If Dastyari or Feeney actually cared about the Labor party they would make a quiet exit at this point, but they are both too self-serving careerists to do that. So they stay and continue to damage the party.

  20. Lenna Leprena‏ @LennaLeprena · 11h11 hours ago

    Dastyari set to be referred to committee over China allegations Can you believe these maggots..Robb was IN GOVT and signed FTA after being promised $800k pa “job” with Chinese corp and these rabbits are going for an opposition guy over $1,600.

  21. Victoria, it was always a “meh” for me (except the political angle, which was interesting while it lasted).

    Maybe there’s more to come on that. The Monkey Podders don’t give up, and there’s bound to be a bunch of No celebrants and cake bakers come forward in the coming months and years (with just as willing opponents). The Tele and Ray Hadley will be there, of course, as will the churches, whatever the Royal Commission findings are. The first little boy to wear a dress to school will sell an extra 10,000 newspapers.

    But it’s still “meh” to me (as I think it should be).

  22. …Turnbull, who told very us often he and Lucy were voting yes

    But did absolutely no campaigning with teh gays, or go to any of their rallies, and abstained from voting against odious Amendments to the legislation yesterday. Yeah, that guy.

  23. William,

    Thank you for all your great work, patience, good humour and polling analysis.

    Above, you comment on the Ipsos WA breakdown which comes as a bit of a surprise.

    I was wondering if the Essential and Newspoll polling which also was released this week has made available state breakdowns ? And , if so, how does it compare to the Ipsos WA figure ?


  24. Morning all. Thanks BK for today’s links.

    Now we have marriage equality I predict in time it will come to be like the apology to the stolen generations: most of those opposed will eventually over time come to admit they were wrong to oppose it.

  25. BB

    Things don’t always have to mean less just because it doesn’t affect us directly.
    it is a big deal to those who feel lesser people due to their sexuality. Now that their relationships are recognused under the same law as everyone else, it has made an immeasurable difference to their self worth and acceptance.
    My kids friends who are gay, will benefit from this change for this reason alone. It is a gamechanger

  26. Victoria, you don’t need to lecture me.

    I accept that it’s a personal issue for some, but there are bigger fish to fry, in my opinion.

    But it’s just my opinion. I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind.

  27. What on earth?

    Labor’s ‘petty politics’ over SSM
    Malcolm Turnbull accuses Labor of playing “petty politics” on same-sex marriage as government seeks credit for passing the bill. (Oz headline)

  28. I haven’t been following closely, but how is this all a big triumph for Malcolm? He’s still running around trying to claim credit and trash labor. He just looks like a dick.

  29. It is still early but I can report that despite the yesterday’s vote for ME the sky has not fallen in Perth’s inner south.

  30. Bakers for gay weddings case is currently before the Supreme Court in the US. They’re arguing it’s a free speech issue:

    Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg started the line of attack, by asking if a person who designs wedding invitations is also an artist, who could refuse to do business with gay customers. Waggoner hedged, and Kagan jumped in. What about the jeweller who designs the rings? “It would depend on the context,” the lawyer responded. But Kagan was just warming up. What about the hair stylist? An artist? “Absolutely not,” Waggoner said. “There’s no expression or protected speech in that kind of context.” Kagan asked, “The makeup artist?” Not an artist, Waggoner said.
    “It’s called an artist,” Kagan shot back. “It’s the makeup artist.” The courtroom audience, which is usually sedate, roared with laughter. Kagan wasn’t done. What about the chef who cooked the wedding dinner? Not an artist, Waggoner said. “Whoa!” Kagan replied. “The baker is engaged in speech, but the chef is not engaged in speech?”

  31. roosmcg:

    The sky is holding up nicely in the south of the state as well. In fact it’s a beautiful cloudless clear day for that matter!

  32. Re: The zoomster v. bemused match yesterday, which I have just replayed after missing it live.
    It promised a lot at the start but unfortunately blew out to a one-sided contest with zoomster winning by an innings and a couple of hundred runs. A disappointing spectacle.

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