Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

  1. The Oz still loves Abbott as they always give him oxygen in their paper and on their website.They must think its doing the Libs some good always quoting Abbott.Most punters dont want to hear a word from the nutter.One of the most unpopular PMs there will ever be.

  2. Fulvio Sammut @ #1449 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 11:44 pm

    Many years ago, as I recall, a young kitchen hand called Robert Candaloro took umbrage at some assertion made by Frank Calabrese, and threatened to sue Frank.

    William took greater umbrage at Robert’s threat to sue than he did to Frank’s comment, and banned young Robert.

    Or so the story goes, according to my no doubt febrile recollection …

    I didn’t think Candles had been banned.
    I thought he just got summoned back to his dish washing by his employer.

  3. Coal power going to come up in Bennelong?
    Ausgrid: Power safely back to 1,000 customers in Eastwood, Denistone East and Ryde. Sorry for the disruption tonight.

  4. All right, settled into the gold class seat with the back reclined and the foot rest up. Will open the 3d glasses in a sec.

    Just need the cocktails to arrive.

  5. @ Fulvio, as a supporter of the ALP, Wayne doesn’t know that I was actually sending a coded message to my Chinese handler in Beijing, who will now implement a plan to take over all the bakeries in Australia and force them to bake Wedding cakes for SSM couples.

  6. From memory, Reachtel’s individual seat poling at the federal election was seriously inaccurate. I would back Newspoll/Galaxy to be closer to the mark any day; but we will see.

  7. Newspoll/Galaxy’s electorate polling hasn’t been brilliant either. It’s particularly difficult when you’ve got a big by-election on, and every potential respondent will have been contacted on multiple occasions.

  8. Is Reachtel a robopoll.

    We know in Alabama this got a false result for Moore in Alabama. I would expect less error here as no ban I am aware of calling mobiles?

  9. My underlying judgement is that Bennelong is unlikely to swing, although there are a few factors working for Labor, and the Newspoll is surely some encouragement.

    I have no idea about the factors, but the one Newspoll doesn’t seem to shift my thinking by very much.

  10. I believe this one is authentic:

    Wow, more than 90% of Fake News Media coverage of me is negative, with numerous forced retractions of untrue stories. Hence my use of Social Media, the only way to get the truth out. Much of Mainstream Meadia has become a joke! @foxandfriends

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940930017365778432

    Note the unnecessary capitalization of Random Words, combined with Obvious Bad Spelling.

    Is it technically accurate to describe one retraction as “numerous”? I suppose one is a number…

  11. Buzzfeed news:

    France is trolling Trump’s decision to leave the Paris climate agreement by giving US scientists “Make Our Planet Great Again” research grants

    Good idea, pinch all of USA important shit.

  12. What I got from the Alabama vote is that Trump is so F*****g Awful that he brings out the vote. Hopefully brian trumble is so effin’ awful he also brings* out the vote to Labor (fingers crossed)…

    * yes I know voting is compulsory: it’s a figure of speech.

  13. A song for Roy:

    Mamas’ just let your babies grow up to be cowboys
    Don’t let ’em be doctors and lawyers and such
    Otherwise they vote demmycrat to much

  14. Bushfire Bill @ #1399 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 7:30 pm

    Abbott and the rest of his Monkey Nuts never give up, do they?

    If the Lib Right ever gets another PM, expect SSM to be reversed. I’m serious.

    Unlikely. They may try, but now that the vote in both the survey and the Senate and House have been cast, even they know it’ll be electoral suicide.

    However they will attempt to water it down using “religious freedoms” as an excuse.

    To reverse it totally though will see the polls showing the Opposition in the lead with a 60+ figure.

  15. Fulvio Sammut @ #1449 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 8:44 pm

    Many years ago, as I recall, a young kitchen hand called Robert Candaloro took umbrage at some assertion made by Frank Calabrese, and threatened to sue Frank.

    William took greater umbrage at Robert’s threat to sue than he did to Frank’s comment, and banned young Robert.

    Or so the story goes, according to my no doubt febrile recollection …

    I seem to remember a couple of people being banned because of their threats to sue other Bludgers. That was while PB was under the Crikey banner though. Perhaps he has a bit more tolerance of these idiots now that he’s in total control.

  16. Confessions @ #1412 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 10:46 pm

    Alabama is a major setback for Trump, however he and his minions choose to sell/spin it.

    Neil Young had Alabama pegged … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD3bGEFxGC0

    See the old folks … Tied in white robes … See all this ruin … What are you doin’ … Alamaba … You’ve got the rest of the union to help you along. What’s going wrong?

    Seems the times they may be a changin’ after all!

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