ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. rossmcg @ #1193 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 6:22 pm

    Gee I’ll bet the Libs are thrilled at having to spend $1 million to prop up a dud like Alexander.

    Still I guess they can always hit up Turnbull for a donation. After all, it is his job on the line and he has been known to chip in to save his hide.

    That’s probably one of the reasons they don’t want any more referrals.

    They don’t have the money to fight them!! 🙂

  2. As a new poster, but long time reader, Bludgers: I implore you – stop feeding the trolls! DTT, then Edwina and now Wayne. Don’t expect any help from William’s moderation if you keep biting. My fingers are getting tired from the endless scrolling past crap to get to the good stuff. Enough!

  3. Interesting that most of what i see on the TV about Bennelong has Truffles as the one up front doing the talking, with Alexander as his noddy. Mainly KK speaking for herself. Alexander a nobody really.

  4. lizzie says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 6:52 pm
    Dog advocates and a tiny poodle called Oscar are celebrating after laws to ban puppy farming passed Victorian parliament.

    The number of dogs that breeders are allowed to keep will be limited after a bill passed on Friday in a tight upper house vote.

    The new laws, championed by welfare group Oscar’s Law, also mean pet shops will no longer be allowed to sell puppies.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/puppy-farming-will-be-outlawed-in-victoria

    I have supported Oscar’s Law for years. I hate puppy farmers with a passion and I would lock the evil btards up in the same accommodation as the poor dogs they use for making money. These are evil, disgusting, low-life maggots who should be exiled to Nauru for the rest of their lives.

    Leave me in a room with a puppy farmer and a piece of 2×4 and someone is going to be in a sad state afterwards. I will have a satisfied smile on my face.

    I have met parasites with more right to existence than these greedy cruel lazy animal exploiters. May they all rot in whatever Hell there may be for such disgusting, vile creatures.

    Well done, Oscar’s Law. One state down, now for the rest.

  5. It would be ironic Karma for Turnbull if he won Dastayari’s resignation over China, yet lost Bennelong and his PMship by humiliating voters of Chinese heritage.

  6. My feeling all along has been that JA would scrape home, just. The balance of poling tends to indicate this, but it really is close and could fall either way. As I said the other day, fingers crossed for some conservative preference leakage from voters seeing a chance to finish Turnbull’s leadership.

  7. Bemused I assumed the pair of princesses either included Outside Left or are known personally or related to him/her. Would be an odd thing to say otherwise!

    Stating the time they were expected to clock on led me to think that, I have no knowledge of it other than that post

  8. vote1julia @ #1009 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 6:20 pm

    One of the outcomes from the CA Royal Commission must be that common law is above canon law. Canon law should have no recognition in our judicial system. I believe Australia is one of the few countries where canon law is upheld over Australian Law where Catholic priests are involved. This must end.

    It won’t. Neither will Sharia.
    They are like the rules of a club, applicable and relevant to those who choose to submit to them.
    But ultimately there is recourse to the law.

  9. Sample size 524, margin of error 4.4%.

    On primaries given by BiGD, I ge ALP 2PP = 38 + 6.5 (G) + 2 (RWNJ) + 2 (Oth) = 48.5. With that margin of error, it’s line ball (tennis analogy).

  10. sprocket__:

    The poll comes as The Daily Telegraph can reveal Labor spent $250,000 on the Bennelong campaign, excluding the union spend, compared with the Liberals’ spend of close to $1 million.

    Maybe Malcolm will drop another cool $1.75m tomorrow to save his arse again.

  11. Regarding comments earlier on Sharia law. Most religious laws are for on thing, controlling women, giving them less rights than men, enforcing gender roles and controlling and repressing women’s’ sexuality.

    Our civil law should not take heed nor support any religious law because the. basis of civil law is antithetical to basis of religious law of any kind.

    Anyone can express their religious devotion in any way they like that does not break civil law. including laws preventing discrimination and abuse.

    Iat is time to clean out our laws based on religion, such as abortion, assisted death, religious instruction/indoctrination in schools, exemption for clergy from mandatory reporting of abuse, tax free status, for example. And no way should Scientology be given the status of a religion in this country.

    Seeking to codify sharia law in Australia will cause a backlash in this country that I would not want to see.

    And when a person/couple goes to their religious adviser for help, each person should be given the information of where to get advice and help under secular law. None of this staying with your violent spouse to uphold marriage crap, for example. Info on the state resources for help must be mandatory to be given.

  12. Whatever happens its still a shit result for Turnbull.Almost losing a 10% margin in a safe seat is a disaster in only 18 months.Fully deserved too.

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