ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. @ Wayne ……Així que finalment heu admès que JA serà colpejat demà
    So het jy uiteindelik erken dat JA môre geslaan word
    Այսպիսով, դուք վերջապես ընդունեցիք JA- ին վաղը ծեծելուց
    ဒါကြောင့်သင်ကနောက်ဆုံးတော့ဂျာဝန်ခံမနက်ဖြန်ရိုက်နှက်ခံရဖူး

  2. Wayne says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 9:17 pm
    So you all finally had admit to KK being beaten tomorrow

    The Liberals have already lost, no matter what happens in Bennelong. If you’re the best they can do for campaign legs, they really are totally effed.

  3. Bennelong tomorrow!

    JA sẽ mất ngày mai bởi vì cậu ấy có những kẻ ngốc nghếch như chính bản thân mình.

  4. Greetings ‘bludgers

    Adding to briefly’s list @ 9.16, my eye caught the Age Distribution Chart on William’s guide – relatively more 20s and 30s than Australia generally, with whom the shambles of the NBN may resonate more strongly as well.

  5. Wayne @ #1150 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:22 pm

    That’s Malcom Turnbull who says that’s she is corrupt

    They are your words.

    If Turnbull has used them also in the same way as you have then he is as big an idiot as you and liable to the same consequences.

    Somehow I think you may have missed the subtleties of his language which is hardly surprising.

  6. I read that Joske article and I think he is trying to create the same ‘fears’ that the US has over Russian influence. The thing is, Bennelong is one electorate and any influence would align with the large community there.

    Russia is a hostile govt as far as most in the US are concerned and their need to influence world events stems from their lack of actual power (thus subversion).

    China has power and while I do not wish China to have undue influence, I doubt they would be able to wield the kind of influence the US has here.


  7. Turnbull says child sex abuse survivors who did jail time will be denied compensation under the redress scheme. He acknowledges their crimes may stem from their trauma”

    Costs money to keep people in jail; perhaps the church should be sent the bill.

  8. Sonar

    You are picking on someone who as a learning disability and I have forwarded your mates comments on JA To is campaign office for them to look into so you better tell your mates to also get a lawyer

  9. So it’s Turnbull who says KK is corrupt.

    Well that’s ok then. Not

    Apart from the fact that I doubt he ever said it, if he did given his record what would make any reasonable person think he was telling the truth?

    He has been telling us for weeks that KK appointed Obeid to her cabinet. That is a lie.

  10. William. I’ve never asked you this before but is there any chance you can boot Wayne? It offers nothing and is just pissing the regular posters off. I don’t mind a decent debate but this is just stupid.

  11. My view is that 9.7% is bit too much of an ask.

    To make it interesting – KK would need above 38% primary and greens to maintain 10% primary vote and 80% prefences to Labor. She would need to be close on primary vote and the Australian Conseratives to be at least 3-4% lower than the greens as likely they will prefence JA 80%

    The question then becomes if KK doesnt get there, what is a pass mark for Labor?
    Would they be happy for over 7% swing and very happy with 8%. The seat only gone to Labor once since inception.

  12. So, even appreciating your own cogitative issues, you see fit to inflict upon the posters and viewers of this site your nasty, vituperative, offensive and slanderous
    nonsense, yet when challenged, you play the victim card.

  13. Mr Bowe’s standards for commenting on the new blog sure have dropped off. Apparently you can now get away with repeatedly calling the Alternative PM and his candidate for Bennelong ‘corrupt’.

    Sad.

  14. On the other hand, what is acceptable for MT and liberals? Obviously win seat, but less than 7% swing gives hope for the next year to turn polls around. But conversly 8% swing against in traditional liberal seat means more pain as it appears the electorate has stopped listening. Do they change tact and go centre right with some more progressive policy ie health, education, environment to take some initiative from Labor and greens as well as tax cuts etc for business to appeal to their traditional base?

  15. The poll comes as The Daily Telegraph can reveal Labor spent $250,000 on the Bennelong campaign, excluding the union spend, compared with the Liberals’ spend of close to $1 million.

    The Galaxy poll gives Mr Alexander a narrow lead over Ms Keneally of just two percentage points, with a primary vote of 40 per cent.

    The Greens received 8 per cent of the primary vote, Mr Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives Party’s 25-year-old candidate Joram Richa secured 7 per cent and the Christian Democratic Party scored 3 per cent.

    Galaxy’s David Briggs said a “very close” result is expected in the by-election.

    “Primary support for John Alexander has plummeted since the last election but he is likely to be returned with the help of preferences from the Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party candidates,” he said.

  16. It’s a galaxy bug. Not quite so bad. But given the change in primaries the change in TPP is a surprise. Perhaps a swing to Christian parties? Hopefully they have a few Abbott supporters who don’t want to preference Mal.

  17. Would these polls be expected to reflect the mood of people with a Chinese/Korean background, maybe they are underrepresented in polls if English inst their first language

  18. Gee I’ll bet the Libs are thrilled at having to spend $1 million to prop up a dud like Alexander.

    Still I guess they can always hit up Turnbull for a donation. After all, it is his job on the line and he has been known to chip in to save his hide.

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