ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. Dio, the claim isn’t confessional privilege, he says he had legal advice which shouldn’t have to disclose -to protect himself from saying whether or not he’d been told about another priest committing abuse in effectively a managerial capacity.

  2. Wayne says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 6:00 pm
    Bakunin you were siding with me so stop lying and your an a LNP supporter with me and want JA to win tomorrow

    Yup, Bakunin, famous counter-revolutionary and Tsarist.

  3. Wayne
    If KK wins the Liberal government will fall; if JA wins; oh well. Like it or not the risks are not equal. As to your other nonsense, sorry maaa. If you want to know how to troll observe REX; he is pretty good at it.

  4. “Where she to lose it could only be because the good people of Bennelong just couldn’t stomach the idea of Bill Shorten.”

    Or…just possibly…because she is up against an incumbent with a large margin.

    I think that even a substantial reduction in the margin will be enough to give Truffles a lot more of a problem that anything Shorten will have after Saturday.

  5. The government’s response to the RC will likely be hobbled by the RWNJs and people like Shelton, who are still smarting from the rebuff they received over marriage equality.

    The ACL website has had precious little (if anything) to say about child sexual abuse. It seems to rate as a non-issue with Shelton’s constituents.

  6. One of the outcomes from the CA Royal Commission must be that common law is above canon law. Canon law should have no recognition in our judicial system. I believe Australia is one of the few countries where canon law is upheld over Australian Law where Catholic priests are involved. This must end.

  7. Nah imacca – 50/50 news poll – you’d expect kenEally to have a blow out win. Change of govt swings in by elections are usually high teens.

    Shorten and Keneally should nail it tomorrow or something is wrong with the labor leadership.

  8. Always punitive, always lack of human understanding, from Coalition.

    Remy Varga‏
    @RemyVarga

    Turnbull says child sex abuse survivors who did jail time will be denied compensation under the redress scheme. He acknowledges their crimes may stem from their trauma

  9. vote1julia @ #1009 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 6:20 pm

    One of the outcomes from the CA Royal Commission must be that common law is above canon law. Canon law should have no recognition in our judicial system. I believe Australia is one of the few countries where canon law is upheld over Australian Law where Catholic priests are involved. This must end.

    Vote 1 the Reason party in the senate at the next election to further this.

  10. Yes Lizzie because people who’ve abused others should be compensated because they may have been abused as a child.

    It is sadly a very common paedo pathway. many former qld labor mps could tell you about it.

  11. Stephen Dziedzic‏ @stephendziedzic · 1h1 hour ago

    A few observations after a day on the road in Bennelong. Quite a few in the Korean community are unhappy about govt’s stance on North Korea. They think Turnbull’s commentary is inflammatory. Could hurt Alexander tomorrow

  12. Vote1julia
    The Church seems happy for priests to be included in the mandatory reporting group outside the confessional.
    My understanding is canon law doesn’t trump common law but no government will ever charge a priest for failing to report something said in confession or force them to reveal something said in confession, although the Church argues it almost never happens.

  13. “Always punitive, always lack of human understanding, from Coalition.”

    I very much disagree with the notion that these people should be excluded. THIS is about what was inflicted on them as children, not what they grew up to be. And jail time for what? Crimes that may be completely unrelated to abuse, and for which they have served out the “appropriate” punishment??
    Sad. 🙁

  14. It’s going to be a big day tomorrow for JA as he will win the by election and return to Canberra in feb to help send five labor MPS to the high court and hopefully five by election which the LNP will win by a landslide

  15. “Remy Varga‏
    @RemyVarga
    Turnbull says child sex abuse survivors who did jail time will be denied compensation under the redress scheme. He acknowledges their crimes may stem from their trauma”

    Turnbull should definitely not be airing his own opinions at this point. He should be outlining the processes the government will adopt to respond to the RC findings and if legislation is proposed.

    The RC findings have certainly not come out of the blue – the government has had plenty of time to consider ways to expedite a response. Almost certainly Turnbull has tried to delay the inevitable due to expected opposition from the same characters who vigorously opposed legalising SSM.

  16. Catholic Church has already ruled out… …reporting child abuse from the confessional.

    In which case it is time to declare the Catholic church a rogue organisation, and impose long jail terms on those within it who do not immediately report such abuse to the secular legal authorities.

    If Catholics want to play martyr to their cause, so be it. Doubt they will find much sympathy or support in the wider community.

  17. “So a multiple child rapist who himself was abused should get compensation?”

    On principle yes. This compensation scheme is about things that happened well before the person committed any crime. And, there may well be a good argument to be made that the historical abuse was actually what caused those subsequent crimes to be committed.

    Open question as to whether the person in questions victims deserve a share of any compensation they get or their own?? Opens a can of works that could cost the organisations paying up a bucket. Which is a good thing.

  18. JM
    The priests argue that they will be excommunicated if they breach the sanctity of the confessional. It’s not a totally black and white argument.

  19. citizen @ #1025 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:02 pm

    “Remy Varga‏
    @RemyVarga
    Turnbull says child sex abuse survivors who did jail time will be denied compensation under the redress scheme. He acknowledges their crimes may stem from their trauma”

    Turnbull should definitely not be airing his own opinions at this point. He should be outlining the processes the government will adopt to respond to the RC findings and if legislation is proposed.

    Turnbull is a graceless deluded fuckwit. Just like Tones.

  20. I wonder if Wayne is really Rupert Murdoch, or someone in Turnball’s office?

    Anyway, good luck to KK tomorrow, getting a 10% swing to win is probably a tall order, but I think she’ll give it a good shake regardless, and Alexander lives in North Bondi, miles and miles away from Epping, so how can he claim to be an effective local member?
    As predicted, the Daily Terror in Sydney is full on anti Keneally and spruiking Alexander as our “tennis champ”.

  21. If compensation is paid to victims of child abuse, someone has to pay it. Logically it should be the individual responsible and the organisation they work for, and if that can’t happen the government should step in.
    Therefore a child abuser can be compensated for his abuse but only after he has compensated his victims.

  22. JM @ #1032 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 2:39 pm

    citizen @ #1025 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:02 pm

    “Remy Varga‏
    @RemyVarga
    Turnbull says child sex abuse survivors who did jail time will be denied compensation under the redress scheme. He acknowledges their crimes may stem from their trauma”

    Turnbull should definitely not be airing his own opinions at this point. He should be outlining the processes the government will adopt to respond to the RC findings and if legislation is proposed.

    Turnbull is a graceless deluded fuckwit. Just like Tones.

    Also, as I mentioned earlier it appears that the Minister for Compassion, Christian Potter will be overseeing this. 🙁

  23. If JA was comfortable with dogs, he could have smiled, taken a pace backwards, and caressed its head.
    Overall, he doesn’t seem comfortable with campaigning.

  24. “I’m surprised Cori hasn’t claimed that photo as vindication for his objection to same-sex marriage.”

    He might have if it was a Corgi?? 🙂

  25. I am pleased everybody agrees with me that JA will win tomorrow’s by election and that they will be able to send five labor members to the high court leading to five by elections which the LNP will win

  26. Diogenes @ #1031 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:08 pm

    JM
    The priests argue that they will be excommunicated if they breach the sanctity of the confessional. It’s not a totally black and white argument.

    The choice between reporting and not reporting is binary.

    Besides, I always thought that one answers to God for one’s immortal soul, not to the church or the pope.

    So let the church excommunicate them, and God will decide. If the individual’s conscience is clear, then they have nothing to worry about. Apart from finding secular employment in this material world, of course.

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1038 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:12 pm

    Also, as I mentioned earlier it appears that the Minister for Compassion, Christian Potter will be overseeing this. 🙁

    So it will be in the form of a Basics Card, with drug testing?

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