ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  1. JM @ #947 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:05 pm

    Boerwar @ #917 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:16 pm

    JM
    You are among friends. You can out yourself from the closet and admit that the LNP is the Party best place to save the Great Barrier Reef from the Left’s odious lies.

    You see, Wayne, the power of mistraining.

    The Boerwar Bot (Ver 2.49) is one of the best that Russkie intelligence services can offer, and we have managed to convince it that it is an actual human.

    In fact, as you can see, it is becoming so internally conflicted from our counter-revolutionary disinformation that it makes HAL’s breakdown seem like a slightly bad hair day.

    Oh! Good shot! JM breaks service.

  4. Hi Bludgers,
    Fingers crossed for KK tomorrow although if she looses I wonder if she might get parachuted into Sam’s senate seat.?

    My take on the confessional BS the Catholic church is throwing up as a reformed mick myself.

    I think it is a red herring for them to claim these things are told in confession. Rule 1 from my childhood & going through all that BS was tell them nothing or make something up. Never tell them the truth in confession.

    What was happening was that children & parents & teachers & nuns were telling the PP or Bishop of their concerns & they were blatantly turning a blind eye or moving the perpetrators around. When they finally got caught up with in the RC they hid behind the confessional lie.
    I remember these philosophical questions being seriously discussed by some students in religious studies classes to the consternation of the Brothers. We were always assured that such perpetrators (always murderers were the example) would always be denied absolution in the confessional unless they went to the relevant authorities & handed themselves in.
    Funny that just doesn’t happen to them though.
    What a joke the whole practice is anyway. It’s sole purpose in the past was control. Control of the flock insomuch as the priest was the only one who knew everybody’s secrets & used that information to his advantage.
    Really it is an evil cult trying to control the frightened & gullible.
    Tax them out of existence.

  13. Worst outcome for Labor if Feeney loses is two Greens on Crossbench.

    Can still form a government long enough to go to general election.

  19. Oh no, Labor protestors from Victoria confront Turnbull.

    How dare they.

    Call the AFP to find out if they had visas for NSW although last time I looked I think free travel and trade between the States was guaranteed by the constitution.

    And the protestors refused to answer questions from the ABC! Dunno why that is a problem, Turnbull has made it an art form.

    I shakes my head.

  23. guytaur,

    Greens were happy to support referring members on both sides of the chamber.
    Don’t assume they’ll be equally happy supporting an attempted coup by the ALP.

  24. There's huge uncertainty around all the Bennelong polls because 1) language barriers and 2) voters are so sick of robocalls that they're hanging up on pollsters. The electorate is also increasing volatile— Stephen Dziedzic (@stephendziedzic) December 15, 2017

  26. rossmcg @ #967 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:26 pm

    Oh no, Labor protestors from Victoria confront Turnbull.

    How dare they.

    Call the AFP to find out if they had visas for NSW although last time I looked I think free travel and trade between the States was guaranteed by the constitution.

    I shakes my head.

    Typical unruly Labor supporters abusing their right to protest about the best government in Australia’s history.
    They should be in Communist China, and they’d see how far their protest would get them.

  28. Dave,
    Would Bus 288 Epping to Macquarie Park help?

    All good! I have been allocated Eastwood Public School now. Even though the trains don ‘t stop there from the Central Coast on Saturday morning. Gladys’ new efficiencies. 🙁

    Not to worry, I can get a train back to Eastwood from Epping.

  32. Wayne says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 5:48 pm
    Here is for John Alexander win tomorrow and for LNP majority government again

    I’ll drink to that!

    (I’ll need one or two if it comes about……)

  35. bug1 @ #974 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:40 pm

    There are concerns the by-election is being influenced by community leaders !!!

    “A network of influential community leaders targeting the Turnbull government ahead of the Bennelong byelection … (blah blah blah china)”
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bennelong-byelection-the-influential-network-targeting-the-turnbull-government-in-bennelong-20171215-h0581u.html

    Written by Alex Joske, half Chinese, ex (short stint) editor of Woronki from which he resigned beset by disillusionment, ANU student of affairs CCP, and held in admiration by Andrew Bolt.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/04/03/woroni-editor-alex-joske-quits-finds-allies-in-andrew-bolt-and-the-australian/

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/ideology-ousts-news-editor-at-anu-paper/news-story/a4b66914ef30e963d5954c0cc415d609

  36. Catholic Church has already ruled out celibacy or reporting child abuse from the confessional. It’s up to the governments to respond. I gather it’s a state issue and I think Victoria would be the only one that would even consider forcing the issue.

  38. Diogenes The royal commission – interesting that a Jesuit bishop is claiming not confessional privilege but legal privilege over whether or not he had advice as to child molestation occurring to defend himself on the grounds of accessorial liability.

    What a sad day when the Church has to rely on legal casuistry of this type to defend itself.

  42. Sadly Wayne, Keneally has to be favourite to win, everything has broken in her favour.

    Where she to lose it could only be because the good people of Bennelong just couldn’t stomach the idea of Bill Shorten.

  43. Diogenes @ #983 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 1:58 pm

    Catholic Church has already ruled out celibacy or reporting child abuse from the confessional. It’s up to the governments to respond. I gather it’s a state issue and I think Victoria would be the only one that would even consider forcing the issue.

    That’s where the COAG os going to be so important in coming up with a national response which is then implemented by the States.

  44. Diogenes @ #983 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 5:58 pm

    Catholic Church has already ruled out celibacy or reporting child abuse from the confessional. It’s up to the governments to respond. I gather it’s a state issue and I think Victoria would be the only one that would even consider forcing the issue.

    Dio, apparently there is room to move on celibacy, but not the confessional.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/vatican-should-be-asked-to-make-celibacy-optional-childsex-abuse-commission-20171215-h05g97.html

    (There’s a good pie chart in that link of institutions and abuse rates, if someone could convert to jpeg and post, it’s interesting)

  46. ESJ
    My understanding is there is no legal privilege for the confessional, much the same as for doctors and journalists. Doctors in fact have mandatory reporting so we are legally obliged to report child abuse, as are social workers, teachers, police etc. The RC suggested mandatory reporting for priests which would require a change to the law.

  47. Someone on The Drum (sorry, wasn’t concentrating) has explained that perpetrators rarely if ever confess to child abuse, so the ‘confessional seal’ (sic) is irrelevant. If a child ‘confesses’ to a priest, it is not his ‘sin’ and the priest is at fault for not following it up.

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