ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  1. autocrat

    What is good enough for Pyschiatrists and Doctors is good enough for the Catholic Church. Don’t comply as official policy end tax exempt status. Thats for any organisation in Australia.

  2. Victoria

    Plenty of rumours

    The Speaker Ryan one is the only one that has legs at the moment. The only exception to that before has been Muelller releasing Grand Jury indictments.

  4. Wayne
    All Greens supporters are open about supporting the LNP. They reckon that anything is better than Labor. So there is a whole lot more LNP proud supporters.

  7. KK as to win this by election to make any different to the federal election which will be hold in July 2019 and can’t see her winning it

  8. ML
    Don’t be ashamed. LNP pride is a growing trend on PB. (I would not be surprized if William finally admits his wonderful secret soon.)

  9. Wayne is a gift – a constant reminder of the best the LNP has to offer.

    Wayne, you do them proud, you really do. You’re a beacon, a flying flag, a monument, testimony to all things LNP.

    Thank goodness for school holidays and the time you have set aside for your cause.

  11. Victoria

    Yep. Unless its Speaker Ryan I think its most likely indictments.

    There is big fights happening in GOP due to Alabama result.

  12. davrosz: So, virtually every journalist and self-appointed political expert says Bennelong is a shoe-in for Alexander?
    Must be Keneally, then.

  14. DiPrato: + Justice McClellan: “the sexual abuse of any child is intolerable. It is the responsibility of the entire community to acknowledge this abuse and resolve what we can do to protect children.” #CARoyalComm #RoyalCommission

  15. ratsak @ #741 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 12:40 pm

    I don’t know if Keneally will win tomorrow. I suspect it will be very close either way. Trumble and his clownshow wouldn’t be stinking up the place with so much obvious desperation if they didn’t believe it was really tight.

    Well, exactly. Their desperation is flooding from every orifice.

    Mr Newbie @ #781 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    Douglas and Milko:

    I do not think that Wayne has been released here to change minds on this blog, but simply as calibration before release on Facebook and Twitter.

    Agreed. That’s why it’s important not to interact with it and just ignore.

    I dunno. Seems like a good opportunity to mistrain it. Cuts both ways. 🙂

  16. jenauthor
    Some secret LNP supporters, such as yourself, protest too much. It is obvious that you admire the LNP and all the good it does for common humanity and for bankers.
    You will find that your heart, your soul and your mind will line up with the stars if you would only admit the wonderful truth firstly to yourself and thereafter to whole of humanity and then to Wayne’sWorld.

  17. Unless Catholic Church complies with Australian law and end secrecy in confessional when crime admitted then they have to suffer consequences.

    Ending Tax Exemption has to be one of them. It can no longer be business as usual. The RC has been too comprehensive. Thingshave to change.

  19. JM
    You are among friends. You can out yourself from the closet and admit that the LNP is the Party best place to save the Great Barrier Reef from the Left’s odious lies.

  20. Wayne’s persuasive arguments have inspired and motivated me.

    I am currently canvassing, doorknocking and cajoling people in my electorate to vote for John Alexander in the Bennelong by-election.

    I think my efforts might sway enough people in my electorate to vote for JA to ensure he gets a resounding majority.

    My electorate is Perth.

  21. The LNP will have there one seat majority back tomorrow and can send five members of the ALP to the High Court to see if they can sit in parliament and hopefully they will have to face by election which will see the LNP win all five seats and get a 6 seat majority…..

  26. It is that time of the year when annual awards are awarded.

    I would like to nominate Sassy as Republican Horse of the Year and her rider as the Republican Horse’s Arse of the Year.

  29. The LNP will lose there one seat majority tomorrow and the ALP can send seventy five members of the LNP to the High Court to see if they can sit in parliament and hopefully they will have to face by election which will see the ALP win all seventy five seats and get a 145 seat majority…..

  30. Is it technically accurate to describe one retraction as “numerous”? I suppose one is a number

    One is the loneliest number that you’ll ever do. Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.

  31. Paddy O

    Trump can’t fire Mueller directly. Has to go through Rosenstein.
    He has been a cornered rat for quite some time. Trump is likely to do anything at this stage of the game

  32. Victoria :

    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson · 1h1 hour ago

    That’s the word I’m hearing.

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Tea Pain’s guessin’ it’s closer to an in-law than an out-law. How did Tea do, brother Rick?

  35. Dutton: Australian Humanitarian of the Year Award with Empathy Clasp.

    Bishop: Pearl of the South Award for Services to the Australian Pearl Divers.

    Fry the Planet: Dead Coral Award with Crown of Thorns pendant.

    Joyce: Keg Award for Dedicated Service to the Australian Brewing Industry.

  36. Trog Sorrenson @ #789 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:10 pm

    P1

    I’d pay more attention to Adam Bandt if his party had an energy policy that didn’t look like it was drafted in the 1980s. And badly drafted at that!

    Yep. Not enough gas.
    Actually P1, it would be interesting to see what you consider to be the basic elements of good energy policy.
    Just a series of dot points will suffice. Also include a basic timeline, and put things in order of priority.

    Hahahaha…
    No need to wait for P1, I will write it for her…
    1. Burn more gas.
    2. Burn still more gas.
    3. Burn lots more gas.
    NOW!

  37. ItzaDream @ #906 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:40 pm

    Wayne is a gift – a constant reminder of the best the LNP has to offer.

    Wayne, you do them proud, you really do. You’re a beacon, a flying flag, a monument, testimony to all things LNP.

    Thank goodness for school holidays and the time you have set aside for your cause.

    It probably makes more sense in the original Hokkien – unless it’s the Fancy Bear mob.

  38. PhoenixRed

    So more likely to be Kushner than Donnie Jnr.
    Apparentlh Kushner was interviewed for more than nine hours this week.

  39. guytaur @ #914 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:45 pm

    Unless Catholic Church complies with Australian law and end secrecy in confessional when crime admitted then they have to suffer consequences.

    Ending Tax Exemption has to be one of them. It can no longer be business as usual. The RC has been too comprehensive. Thinks have to change.

    There’s only one way to do that – vote 1 the Reason Party in the senate.

    That of course is if you care enough about tax dodging abusive cultists in our community.

  40. sonar @ #926 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:52 pm

    The LNP will lose there one seat majority tomorrow and the ALP can send seventy five members of the LNP to the High Court to see if they can sit in parliament and hopefully they will have to face by election which will see the ALP win all seventy five seats and get a 145 seat majority…..

    Advantage sonar.

  42. Speaker Ryan could resign as could Secretary Tillerson…

    The Republican Party of both the legislative and executive branches is an utter shambles and voters from Republican Alabama and Purple-state Virginia can see it.

  43. Boerwar @ #932 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    Dutton: Australian Humanitarian of the Year Award with Empathy Clasp.

    Bishop: Pear of the South Award for Services to the Australian Pearl Divers.

    Fry the Planet: Dead Coral Award with Crown of Thorns pendant.

    Joyce: Keg Award for Dedicated Service to the Australian Brewing Industry.

    Boerwar: Do Nothing award for services to the Informal Party.

  44. So, now a Chinese Admiral has got stuck into an Australian admiral. Verbally.

    The interesting pattern is that all politeness is gone.

    Both the PLF and the PLF navy have been very very rude.

    She’s hotting up, folks.

  46. Wayne, I can’t help myself. I promised, but ….. I just heard from a Mr Jones, and he said you are in the running for best and fairest campaigner for the Great Party in Bennelong.

    Have you decided what to wear? Mr Jones will be presenting the Pointy Hat to the winner, so you have to look your very very best. Long pants at least.

  47. LNP will win tomorrow and get there one seat majority back and can send five labor members to the high Court to see if they are able to sit in parliament and hopefully win all five seats

  49. ALP will win tomorrow and the LNP lose there one seat majority and the ALP can send seventy five LNP members to the high Court to see if they are able to sit in parliament and hopefully ALP win all seventy five seats

  50. Boerwar @ #917 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:16 pm

    JM
    You are among friends. You can out yourself from the closet and admit that the LNP is the Party best place to save the Great Barrier Reef from the Left’s odious lies.

    You see, Wayne, the power of mistraining.

    The Boerwar Bot (Ver 2.49) is one of the best that Russkie intelligence services can offer, and we have managed to convince it that it is an actual human.

    In fact, as you can see, it is becoming so internally conflicted from our counter-revolutionary disinformation that it makes HAL’s breakdown seem like a slightly bad hair day.

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